LarryDavid

A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

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1 hour ago, LongBalls said:

Why no IR?

 

I do wish they would just put him on 3 week IR and let him heal fully.

It's nice to drop him in my IR spot when he's declared out and pick up a speculative add, but frustrating to have to put him back on the bench when he gets a Q designation even though we know he isn't playing this week.

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32 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

Buy low?

 

Of course...but only if it's low lol I'm pretty sure owners will want full price unless they are truly suffering 

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On 9/19/2020 at 11:24 PM, sSektor said:

The talent and hype drove his ADP up into the 3rd-4th and now people are trying to trade him after a bad 1st week and an injury? Why did you even bother drafting him at his price tag if you're going to tuck tail and run this easily?

Because he's injured and the injury is likely going to negatively effect him for potentially the rest of the year or at minimum for the first half of the season.

Dr Mark Adickes was on with the Fantasy Guru this morning, Adickes is a surgeon that played in the NFL and is dead on accurate when talking injuries -- for instance last week he said from the get go after watching Conner he said there was a good possibility he plays sunday at a time when everyone had him dead in the water and was running for Snell... Many examples that's just a recent one from last week.

Anyway... Dr Mark Adickes went back watched 2019 film of AJ Brown, then watched his film from Week 1. He stated Brown was not nearly explosive that game as he was in 2019, that this type of injury and where it is will continue to impact his explosiveness moving forward until he gets a long layoff to fully recover and to expect him to be hampered potentially for a while moving forward.

So in essence, you are not getting the player you thought you drafted, you are left with a lesser version that's going to be less productive. Depending your team and situation maybe you can ride it out, but depending what injuries you have on your team and how pressed you are to win now, some may need to move on.

He's a major risk right now and it's not about him playing, but how explosive he'll be when he does play -- especially if week 1 wasn't a fluke but rather the result of him being hampered.

Edited by StevieStats
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51 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Because he's injured and the injury is likely going to negatively effect him for potentially the rest of the year or at minimum for the first half of the season.

Dr Mark Adickes was on with the Fantasy Guru this morning, Adickes is a surgeon that played in the NFL and is dead on accurate when talking injuries -- for instance last week he said from the get go after watching Conner he said there was a good possibility he plays sunday at a time when everyone had him dead in the water and was running for Snell... Many examples that's just a recent one from last week.

Anyway... Dr Mark Adickes went back watched 2019 film of AJ Brown, then watched his film from Week 1. He stated Brown was not nearly explosive that game as he was in 2019, that this type of injury and where it is will continue to impact his explosiveness moving forward until he gets a long layoff to fully recover and to expect him to be hampered potentially for a while moving forward.

So in essence, you are not getting the player you thought you drafted, you are left with a lesser version that's going to be less productive. Depending your team and situation maybe you can ride it out, but depending what injuries you have on your team and how pressed you are to win now, some may need to move on.

He's a major risk right now and it's not about him playing, but how explosive he'll be when he does play -- especially if week 1 wasn't a fluke but rather the result of him being hampered.

 

I thought the injury happened with about ten minutes left in the game? So, not sure I believe that he was less explosive for the entire game.

Also, was there also another player with a similar injury in training camp? I feel like there was but can't remember who..

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

Anyway... Dr Mark Adickes went back watched 2019 film of AJ Brown, then watched his film from Week 1. He stated Brown was not nearly explosive that game as he was in 2019, that this type of injury and where it is will continue to impact his explosiveness moving forward until he gets a long layoff to fully recover and to expect him to be hampered potentially for a while moving forward.

 

The injury apparently happened in the game, so not sure about that. Could be the altitude in Denver after limited training camp and no preseason. He probably wasn't in full game shape.

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46 minutes ago, LongBalls said:

 

The injury apparently happened in the game, so not sure about that. Could be the altitude in Denver after limited training camp and no preseason. He probably wasn't in full game shape.

 

55 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

I thought the injury happened with about ten minutes left in the game? So, not sure I believe that he was less explosive for the entire game.

Also, was there also another player with a similar injury in training camp? I feel like there was but can't remember who..

There's no confirmation this injury solely occurred during the game, in fact he was actually injured previously in camp on August 28th during training camp and the Titans had been managing his workload leading up to the season. Google it.

You can choose not to believe Dr Mark Adickes, but the guy is great -- former NFL lineman and orthopedic surgeon. He watched his 2019 tape and watched week 1 and stated he was not as explosive as he was last year. 

You can choose to not believe him but I'm just providing the information from a reputable source and providing it in response to someone scoffing at the possibility someone might be considering moving on from him. Depends on your team situation, lots of injuries early on some trams might be hard up.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

 

There's no confirmation this injury solely occurred during the game, in fact he was actually injured previously in camp on August 28th during training camp and the Titans had been managing his workload leading up to the season. Google it.

You can choose not to believe Dr Mark Adickes, but the guy is great -- former NFL lineman and orthopedic surgeon. He watched his 2019 tape and watched week 1 and stated he was not as explosive as he was last year. 

You can choose to not believe him but I'm just providing the information from a reputable source and providing it in response to someone scoffing at the possibility someone might be considering moving on from him. Depends on your team situation, lots of injuries early on some trams might be hard up.


I agree I do not see any evidence this was a new injury. He aggravated the bone bruise he already got in camp that caused him to miss weeks leading up to the season. I totally buy what this doc said, and agree with what he saw on film.  AJ needs significant time off to rehab this but once he comes back if he’s fully healed he should regain his previous prowess pretty quickly.  

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Yep, agree with the above. I'd honestly prefer they put him on IR. I remembered thinking it was weird he had this mystery injury no one was talking about towards the end of camp. If A.J. Brown doesn't have his explosiveness there's no point to play him. It's Week 3. Let him heal up.

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8 minutes ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

Don't trade for injured players. This kids season is shot. 

I disagree about not trading for injured players. Last year, people who got Adams on the cheap would certainly say it was worth it, depending on what they paid. I’m not saying Brown is in the same situation, but just as a general rule about injured players.

I wouldn’t pay a lot for Brown. But depending on a team’s situation, I can see a buy low opportunity.

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1 hour ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

Don't trade for injured players. This kids season is shot. 


This is not good advice. he could easily be a huge asset later in the year for a team who thinks they’re playoff bound.  Why not trade a low upside rb3 to a needy team for him? That trade already happened in one of my leagues and I think it was a smart play by the brown acquisitor.  

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Bust of the year so far for me.

Yeah, he's injured.  But he wasn't even great when he was healthy.  Did he make a pass at Tanny's hot wife or something?  What gives?  Meanwhile Corey Davis...COREY DAVIS... is the WR1 on this team.  (After Jonnu of course..)

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1 minute ago, CooL said:

Bust of the year so far for me.

Yeah, he's injured.  But he wasn't even great when he was healthy.  Did he make a pass at Tanny's hot wife or something?  What gives?  Meanwhile Corey Davis...COREY DAVIS... is the WR1 on this team.  (After Jonnu of course..)

By when he was healthy you mean for like 2 quarters? He's a huge bust but it is all injury related. 

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I play with experienced players in a 12 teamer deep 3 WR 2 Flex and no one in my league is interested in touching this guy whatsoever... Can't even get a Devin Singletary. Zero interest. 

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4 minutes ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

By when he was healthy you mean for like 2 quarters? He's a huge bust but it is all injury related. 

He played 66 of 81 snaps.  I didn't watch the game, so I don't know when exactly it happened.  There's not a lot given about when the injury occurred, although there is a report that said he took a helmet to the knee with 10 minutes left in the game.  So let's say 3+ quarters, he still wasn't utilized the way we all expected him to be preseason.

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So we're 2 games into the season and folks are already calling bust??? Do y'all have your fantasy playoffs in week 6?

 

At least you know he's out and can plug someone else instead. Much better than waiting 'til game time and (even if he plays) wondering if he'll be a decoy. If this lingers into week 5-6 then maybe we can have a more educated discussion. 3 quarters of football - the first game of the year, with no preseason, in high-altitude Denver - is not nearly enough of a sample size to conclude anything.

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I’ve read he was injured prior to the game. But either way, I agree he doesn’t have much value right now. To me, the smart move is to wait it out. If he gets healthy and comes back, there’s no reason he can’t be the WR we drafted. But it’s possible he never gets healthy. Bone bruises are tricky.

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4 minutes ago, CooL said:

He played 66 of 81 snaps.  I didn't watch the game, so I don't know when exactly it happened.  There's not a lot given about when the injury occurred, although there is a report that said he took a helmet to the knee with 10 minutes left in the game.  So let's say 3+ quarters, he still wasn't utilized the way we all expected him to be preseason.

I don't know what way you were expecting him to be utilized but everyone should have known he is not a volume play. You can't take a look at his targets and come to any reasonable conclusion about what he was going to produce because his value was completely tied to his explosive playmaking. If he were healthy he'd be a low end WR1 with huge booms and low busts. The usage was no the issue in week 1 and it's not the issue now. He's hurt, and badly, and that will cost him both playing time and explosiveness.  

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5 minutes ago, TLBDS said:

So we're 2 games into the season and folks are already calling bust??? Do y'all have your fantasy playoffs in week 6?

 

At least you know he's out and can plug someone else instead. Much better than waiting 'til game time and (even if he plays) wondering if he'll be a decoy. If this lingers into week 5-6 then maybe we can have a more educated discussion. 3 quarters of football - the first game of the year, with no preseason, in high-altitude Denver - is not nearly enough of a sample size to conclude anything.

If he's practicing by week 5 or 6 I'd be shocked. 

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13 minutes ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

If he's practicing by week 5 or 6 I'd be shocked. 

Based on what medical reporting or analysis?

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On 9/24/2020 at 10:57 AM, battle2heaven said:

What would AJ Brown owners be willing to trade him away for at the moment?

gimme a lotto RB, Mattison/Edmonds/Kelley/etc

this dude sucks

 

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26 minutes ago, TLBDS said:

So we're 2 games into the season and folks are already calling bust??? Do y'all have your fantasy playoffs in week 6?

 

At least you know he's out and can plug someone else instead. Much better than waiting 'til game time and (even if he plays) wondering if he'll be a decoy. If this lingers into week 5-6 then maybe we can have a more educated discussion. 3 quarters of football - the first game of the year, with no preseason, in high-altitude Denver - is not nearly enough of a sample size to conclude anything.

I'm having draft regret, that's all.  Ridley (!!!), DK, Tyler Lockett, Scary Terry were all available at the time I picked him.  

Yes, he's not a volume play.  But just expected more.  Nothing to do but to hold on to him right now.  But certainly disappointing start.

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On 9/24/2020 at 1:57 PM, battle2heaven said:

What would AJ Brown owners be willing to trade him away for at the moment?

A can of beans, but it must have maple syrup and brown sugar or no deal.

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