LarryDavid

A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

That seems like wishful thinking. I fully expect Tannehill to regress and Brown's ridiculous YPC to also come down. I just think he's more likely to return WR2 value which makes him a bad pick at where he is being ranked.

 

1. Current ADP does not matter so I hate even talking about this. 

 

2. I do not know what ADP you guys are even referring to or looking at. 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

 

On fantasy football calculator, they have AJ at 51 overall and the 21st WR off the board. That is plenty safe for his upside for more and nice even using your likely "WR2" prediction. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

 

1. Current ADP does not matter so I hate even talking about this. 

 

2. I do not know what ADP you guys are even referring to or looking at. 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

 

On fantasy football calculator, they have AJ at 51 overall and the 21st WR off the board. That is plenty safe for his upside for more and nice even using your likely "WR2" prediction. 

 

That site has NKeal Harry over ODB. I wouldnt use it as a reference point until its updated.

 

Brown is ranked as WR11, WR15, and WR 17 in standard, half PPR, and PPR formats respectively:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/consensus-cheatsheets.php

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fyi the best resources are MFL ADP from real drafts, Mizelle is a user on another board that compiles it if you just google ‘Mizelle ADP’

 

Another option is sleeper rankings which are getting by far the heaviest use right now so the ADP data should be getting better and better as we go here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, LarryDavid said:

 

D0BJqxRX0AAFQIm?format=jpg&name=small

 

I guess it doesn't bother anybody else, but next time the NFL hands out some bogus steroids ban, can we please all point and laugh at Goodell for being the biggest hypocrite on the face of the planet?

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the best comp for AJ is what Diggs did on the Vikings. WR2 with enough talent to blow up for stretches while also having a weak floor because of overall passing volume. The plus is obviously that he doesn't have a Thielen to steal targets. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

I guess it doesn't bother anybody else, but next time the NFL hands out some bogus steroids ban, can we please all point and laugh at Goodell for being the biggest hypocrite on the face of the planet?

 

I agree with you but I don't see the physiques of AJ & DK as proof of PED use.  Could be of course, but could also be natural.  World class athletes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, EWV1 said:

 

I agree with you but I don't see the physiques of AJ & DK as proof of PED use.  Could be of course, but could also be natural. 

That's like saying you don't think RuPaul uses make-up. Well honey, guess what.

11 minutes ago, EWV1 said:

World class athletes.

Absolutely world class athletes. But I guarantee you don't get those bodies without multiple winstrol/stanozolol cycles, and I'm guessing something like trenobol too. These guys are hardcore, and if you don't believe me, ask your local gym.

Not passing judgement on them, steroids is simply a fact of life in the NFL, they're doing what it takes. I'm passing judgement on Goodell who knows this as well as we (I) do, but only pretends to do something about it.

Edited by Boudewijn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I guess it doesn't bother anybody else, but next time the NFL hands out some bogus steroids ban, can we please all point and laugh at Goodell for being the biggest hypocrite on the face of the planet?


Lol, there are plenty of guys still doing performance enhancers, but it is actually a lot of the guys you wouldn’t even think. That’s how they have to get there and really that’s how they try and stay.
 

Those two though? I can promise you is just straight up freakish genetics. They are freak athletes that were dropped into a great situation. At the time of that specific pic, they  were also at a time where they had just trained like they never had before. Even though I know the strength staff at Ole Miss and those guys are also legit.. but I work in that industry so I’m super familiar with that social media crazy picture of AJ and DK. I actually got to watch those guys train and was in the building the day those two took that pic while at the EXOS in Phoenix, AZ. 
 

EXOS is the premier performance training facility in the world. They have been around for like 20 years and have worked with just about every major player in the game (OBJ, Julio, Josh Gordon).. Josh Gordon also posted a pic before his return to the Browns were everyone was freaking out because how rocked up he was.. that was at EXOS too. Anyway, I don’t want to name everyone but the list is huge.. most likely includes whoever is reading this favorite player. 
 

They are on Instagram at Exossports if you want to check out what I’m talking about. This year alone they had like half of the two rounds drafted and 1/3 of the entire NFL draft class trained with them for combine/pro day. They run the combine and pro day stuff but they also do offseason training for guys. 
 

Anyway, the Ole Miss guys headed in a little early so they had about 10-11 weeks of 2x per day training, training involves all of their speed/skill work mixed with heavy strength training. They are fed around the clock meals that are designed by dieticians and created by personal chiefs there. They also have supplements (all tested for sport through Throne Research Institute) that they are taking for the entire process 2x/3x daily.
 

There is much more to that as well.. but this is all to say that pic was taken at the very end of that process and that is a combination of freak genetics, hard work and smart people helping create those monsters. Also why they went on to blow up the combine. I have plenty of stories on some other guys.. but I would bet my life’s savings those two have never need any “performance enhancing”. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with your overall point- that freak athletes in their early 20s can absolutely get crazy rocked up without steroids but you should leave the Josh Gordon part out of there since he got popped with a PED suspension a couple years after the Cleveland pic!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, LarryDavid said:

I would bet my life’s savings those two have never need any “performance enhancing”. 

I would take that bet, but I'll make that your donut to my dollars, because that's not a fair bet and I don't want to take your hard earned money.

Seriously, they have worked very hard and I'm not taking anything away from that, but you don't get that ripped and that dry without years of steroids. Sorry. 

I won't discuss it further, I thought this was the most obvious case of all, but if it isn't, then I won't bring it up again.

1 hour ago, Bmore86 said:

you should leave the Josh Gordon part out of there since he got popped with a PED suspension a couple years after the Cleveland pic!

fuw1ab1grh501.jpg

Edited by Boudewijn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I would take that bet, but I'll make that your donut to my dollars, because that's not a fair bet and I don't want to take your hard earned money.

Seriously, they have worked very hard and I'm not taking anything away from that, but you don't get that ripped and that dry without years of steroids. Sorry. 

I won't discuss it further, I thought this was the most obvious case of all, but if it isn't, then I won't bring it up again.

fuw1ab1grh501.jpg


Nah.. I don’t care to defend these guys because it doesn’t matter. But JG is another that needs no enhancers.. he is the most physically gifted athlete I have ever been around in my life. Including Julio. I have seen the NFL come and test Gordon at least 2x a week for about a full year and I have talked about it what was going on when issues hit. I’m not saying PED aren’t used, you are just pegging the wrong dudes.

Gordon wasn’t hit with actual “PEDs” because the NFL is dumb and weed positive test use to fall under that. I do promise you he smelt like weed every day, but I know you’d believe that. Anyway, last I’m even going to mention it because it doesn’t matter. 

I just would hate you actually watching guys like that and not respecting them for the freak Avatars that those dudes really are. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

That's like saying you don't think RuPaul uses make-up. Well honey, guess what.

Absolutely world class athletes. But I guarantee you don't get those bodies without multiple winstrol/stanozolol cycles, and I'm guessing something like trenobol too. These guys are hardcore, and if you don't believe me, ask your local gym.

Not passing judgement on them, steroids is simply a fact of life in the NFL, they're doing what it takes. I'm passing judgement on Goodell who knows this as well as we (I) do, but only pretends to do something about it.


They don’t even look insanely swole , that’s just great genetics , young freak athletes in their prime. I doubt either of those 2 have done a cycle of roids. I’m an avid lifter and have been around plenty of people who juice. That body type is easily attainable with good genes , and couple years at the gym. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

 

Haha, I don't twitter, but I have a feeling he'll have a lot of requests.  This guy is going to be a beast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/5/2020 at 3:43 PM, kdko said:

 

Love it, he's a dog.  On 3rd and 4, he wont be stopped.  I don't care who's throwing the rock in Tennessee, I want shares even at a steep price this year before he becomes a round 1-2 pick

Anquan Boldin 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A couple of weeks before the season where are with at this with guy? He’s sitting there at the round 3/4 turn almost every time and I find myself taking him a lot, but I am never quite fully convinced. Obviously put up great numbers as a rookie and I don’t see any reason he won’t get better this year. I just have not heard much about him, which is kind of odd. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you have draft him as your WR1 then it would be dicey since I feel like he’s going to be boom or bust....more bust though. AJ would be good as your WR2 if you can pair him with a stable WR1 to compensate. I’m low on the titans offense this season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty quiet thread...probably cause he’s already being drafted pretty high...but I just wanted to say I’m taking him in the 4th all day every day and bought him everywhere I could on keeper/dynasty leagues as I think he will finish this year as a top 10 wr and be a consensus 2nd maybe even 1st rounder for years to come.  To me he’s the next big thing at WR in the league.  Can’t wait to watch him ball this year, I just love how every bit of his athleticism and force of will shows up every play.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keeping him the 10th round this year and I'm stoked about it. Is anyone drafting him as your WR1?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Broncos132 said:

Keeping him the 10th round this year and I'm stoked about it. Is anyone drafting him as your WR1?

I did - with McLaurin as the WR2 - in my first draft.  Picked from the #7 spot in a 12-teamer super flex. AJB in the 4th, Terry in the 5th

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 5/5/2020 at 4:23 PM, LarryDavid said:

“... The Titans aren't changing their philosophy dramatically this season because they don't need to.. it worked them last season. But I guarantee it evolves off the league bottom pass attempts with Brown/Tanny a full year in. As you noted, again, he had low targets... and he was damn successful with those. So he won't need much of a bump then to top his 2019 numbers. “


Like Cool & yourself, I picked up Brown off the wire & our setting is; UDFAs can be listed in any round you want. We had 25 players pulled from our board, many of them WRs that I wanted. So I opted to list Brown in the back & Kupp in the 4th. But drafting Brown at his current price isn’t part of my plan in redraft leagues. However, I disagree that he’s grossly overvalued. Important to consider is the gawd awful amount of space he’s able to exploit. That’s Henry doing that, him & the mash up front. Brown & the other receivers are often beating run-support first cover schemes.
 

While his YAC & yards per target will regress, there are also areas where they can easily improve. Route participation, red zone looks & catch rate in particular. I think that running game remains dominant & continues to force defenses to tighten. If they anticipate how defenses will defend Henry & find ways to expose them elsewhere, they could go! Seems reasonable to assume that Brown will factor in there somehow. 

Edited by markrc99

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 5/6/2020 at 12:36 AM, Boudewijn said:

That's like saying you don't think RuPaul uses make-up. Well honey, guess what.

Absolutely world class athletes. But I guarantee you don't get those bodies without multiple winstrol/stanozolol cycles, and I'm guessing something like trenobol too. These guys are hardcore, and if you don't believe me, ask your local gym.

Not passing judgement on them, steroids is simply a fact of life in the NFL, they're doing what it takes. I'm passing judgement on Goodell who knows this as well as we (I) do, but only pretends to do something about it.

I don't believe you, at least not just from that picture as evidence. They don't even look that insanely jacked. They're just really shredded because of great genetics and the fact they're pro athletes and work out all the time. Probably have insanely low body fat %. They definitely take supplements but to assume it has to be steroids just because they're shredded is a leap.

Edited by owenmills

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, markrc99 said:


Like Cool & yourself, I picked up Brown off the wire & our setting is; UDFAs can be listed in any round you want. We had 25 players pulled from our board, many of them WRs that I wanted. So I opted to list Brown in the back & Kupp in the 4th. But drafting Brown at his current price isn’t part of my plan in redraft leagues. However, I disagree that he’s grossly overvalued. Important to consider is the gawd awful amount of space he’s able to exploit. That’s Henry doing that, him & the mash up front. Brown & the other receivers are often beating run-support first cover schemes.
 

While his YAC & yards per target will regress, there are also areas where they can easily improve. Route participation, red zone looks & catch rate in particular. I think that running game remains dominant & continues to force defenses to tighten. If they anticipate how defenses will defend Henry & find ways to expose them elsewhere, they could go! Seems reasonable to assume that Brown will factor in there somehow. 

Completely agree.  I'm stoked to be able to keep him on the cheap.  I'm not sure if I'd draft him in redraft at his cost, I'd probably lean more towards Ridley, Juju, or Thielen in pass happier offenses.  That said though, he's going to command a huge target share of whatever Tanny ends up throwing.

This thread for him has been amazingly quiet in the offseason.  I think everybody just assumes "oh, he can't possibly be as efficient as he was to close out last season".  So everybody already has their minds made up about him.  I think he's an elite physical specimen and his talent will show.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, CooL said:

“... This thread for him has been amazingly quiet in the offseason. I think everybody just assumes "oh, he can't possibly be as efficient as he was to close out last season".  So everybody already has their minds made up about him. I think he's an elite physical specimen and his talent will show.“


Two things; so many of us are, oh, his adp, people are mistaken. We get back there and we’re; I know him & I know him & ... who dat!? Yet, Brown’s adp & where experts have him ranked are consistent. The target share argument affords no consideration to the quality of any given target. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.