LarryDavid

A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, JacobThunder15 said:

See theres now a different consensus most experts say he is what the guy above said, 15-18. Given his redzone targets im not sure how he isnt a WR1, but im wondering why people arent on board?

Maybe they think Henry will vulture a bunch of the tds. But if they're cooking like they've been there's plenty for everyone

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1 minute ago, JacobThunder15 said:

See theres now a different consensus most experts say he is what the guy above said, 15-18. Given his redzone targets im not sure how he isnt a WR1, but im wondering why people arent on board?

 

Because people will put him behind the boom bust receivers like Evans, Lockett, Odell, etc., The guys who can drop a 1 or 0 at any given time and lose you your week. 

AJ is by far the best receiver on his team, a threat in the red zone, has a good qb, and is on one of the best offenses in the league. I would honestly be shocked if he isn't top 10 from here on out

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On 9/8/2020 at 10:59 AM, ajs723 said:

Kupp doesn't have the potential to do... what he did last year, even though Cooks is now gone. Sure thing.

Vegas has Kupp's over/under at 90 catches for 1100 yards. There are a lot of people who should be putting their life savings on the unders there.

If you think AJ Brown is going to get 130 targets, then you should be taking him one first WRs off the board because he's going to put up 90+ catches, 1200-1300 yards, and probably 8-10 TDs. 

He has more than enough talent to do this, but I just don't see that volume happening. Every projection I see has him around 90-95 targets, at most. That seems reasonable to me.

Week 7 check in here. AJ Brown 8 targets a game on average, and Kupp 7.5 

Kupp 10.9 points per game 1/2 ppr, AJ Brown with 14.7 points per game. I would assume Brown will up his targets to about 9 per game on average by the end of the year if healthy.

 

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Been well worth the wait. To answer why people have him outside the top 12 I think it's mainly him being on a run first team with Henry while players like the Seahawks WRs, Diggs, etc are on more pass happy teams

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1 minute ago, peleincubus said:

Week 7 check in here. AJ Brown 8 targets a game on average, and Kupp 7.5 

Kupp 10.9 points per game 1/2 ppr, AJ Brown with 14.7 points per game. I would assume Brown will up his targets to about 9 per game on average by the end of the year if healthy.

 

I'd definitely rather have AJ Brown going forward. I didn't draft any AJ Brown but I have managed to grab a couple of buy low shares. I wasn't drafting at adp because I was skeptical he'd get enough targets to return adp. In fact I was very confident he wouldn't. It hasn't taken long for me to be a believer lol. Targets are up and the guy is just awesome. 

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I'm all in on the Titans this season, starting Tannehill/Henry/AJ. One thing I've noticed is the titans have great pass protection. Obviously this is because of the Henry and running play-action but it's opening up all kinds of plays to develop for AJ Brown.

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AJ Brown owner here. It's just the targets holding him back. Remember Davis was out and he's a good real life WR2. So they have Henry, Brown, Davis and Smith who all produce (Humphries isn't bad either.) Great real life team. I see Brown as a high tier fantasy WR2 the rest of the way.

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8 hours ago, peleincubus said:

Week 7 check in here. AJ Brown 8 targets a game on average, and Kupp 7.5 

Kupp 10.9 points per game 1/2 ppr, AJ Brown with 14.7 points per game. I would assume Brown will up his targets to about 9 per game on average by the end of the year if healthy.

 

Brown looks great, but this is at least mildly disingenuous. 

Brown has played only three games. He just happens to have 3 TDs in those three games. Other than that, he's averaging 5 catches for 50 some yards per game. To be fair, Kupp is averaging 5 for 60 something, so he's not doing much better. 

 

To me, this discussion is about the TDs. I do think Kupp ultimately gets a little more production overall, but it's the redzone where he has the major edge. Maybe you think Brown is going to be a TD machine who scores a dozen times per season, but otherwise, he and Kupp are much closer than you're implying with those numbers. I still give Kupp the edge by a hair. 

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14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Brown looks great, but this is at least mildly disingenuous. 

Brown has played only three games. He just happens to have 3 TDs in those three games. Other than that, he's averaging 5 catches for 50 some yards per game. To be fair, Kupp is averaging 5 for 60 something, so he's not doing much better. 

 

To me, this discussion is about the TDs. I do think Kupp ultimately gets a little more production overall, but it's the redzone where he has the major edge. Maybe you think Brown is going to be a TD machine who scores a dozen times per season, but otherwise, he and Kupp are much closer than you're implying with those numbers. I still give Kupp the edge by a hair. 

 

AJ has been more of a TD machine in his career than Kupp:

  AJ Career - 19 games (13 starts) / 11 TDs

  Kupp Career - 45 games (33 starts) / 23 TDs

 

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34 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Brown looks great, but this is at least mildly disingenuous. 

Brown has played only three games. He just happens to have 3 TDs in those three games. Other than that, he's averaging 5 catches for 50 some yards per game. To be fair, Kupp is averaging 5 for 60 something, so he's not doing much better. 

 

To me, this discussion is about the TDs. I do think Kupp ultimately gets a little more production overall, but it's the redzone where he has the major edge. Maybe you think Brown is going to be a TD machine who scores a dozen times per season, but otherwise, he and Kupp are much closer than you're implying with those numbers. I still give Kupp the edge by a hair. 

 

After how bad Kupp looked Sunday night and how good AJ has looked the past two games I don't know how you're still grasping on to the notion that Kupp will be better than AJ. AJ will outscore him the rest of the way and it won't be particulatly close

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thoughts on his matchup this week vs pitt?  i know their run defense is pretty legit, but think they can be beaten through the air.....

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3 minutes ago, herschel said:

thoughts on his matchup this week vs pitt?  i know their run defense is pretty legit, but think they can be beaten through the air.....


they just lost bush too, Big hit to the entire unit

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14 minutes ago, herschel said:

thoughts on his matchup this week vs pitt?  i know their run defense is pretty legit, but think they can be beaten through the air.....

[...] He's now locked into my lineup moving forward, regardless of matchup. He's that good.

Edited by tonycpsu
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14 minutes ago, herschel said:

thoughts on his matchup this week vs pitt?  i know their run defense is pretty legit, but think they can be beaten through the air.....

 

I can see a 50-70 yard TD this weekend...Steelers are getting absolutely lit up by WR's. Fulgham put up 10-150-1 on them. FULGHAM!

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24 minutes ago, herschel said:

thoughts on his matchup this week vs pitt?  i know their run defense is pretty legit, but think they can be beaten through the air.....


AJ Brown is an every week starter from now until the end of time. 

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1 hour ago, MingusDew said:


AJ Brown is an every week starter from now until the end of time. 

Really hard to argue this. You'd have to be super loaded at WR to have Brown on your bench. 

Don't really like the matchup, but he should be locked and loaded in lineups. 

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I'd really love to see the targets increase a bit and for his YPC to creep back up to 14-15. So far it's been not much YAC and catch and fall.

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I could see a huge play this week. Steelers blitz so much they are susceptible to giving them up. They'll likely be focused on stopping Henry coming off of his huge game as well.

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6 minutes ago, USWAY said:

I could see a huge play this week. Steelers blitz so much they are susceptible to giving them up. They'll likely be focused on stopping Henry coming off of his huge game as well.

 

I also have this feeling that the Titans are going to stomp the Steelers...Steelers schedule has been an absolute joke. 

Not saying Titans schedule hasn't been a joke. They roflstomped the Bills and the Texans game was crazy competitive without BOB. 

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

I'd really love to see the targets increase a bit and for his YPC to creep back up to 14-15. So far it's been not much YAC and catch and fall.

Would love to see this as well (re: targets) but I just don’t see it happening.   Davis is retuning (I know, he is no AJ nor am I making that argument), Humphries has proven to be reliable and Jonnu (assuming healthy) is probably a top 6 TE in the league.  I feel like 7 targets will be what we will see more often than not.

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26 minutes ago, herschel said:

Would love to see this as well (re: targets) but I just don’t see it happening.   Davis is retuning (I know, he is no AJ nor am I making that argument), Humphries has proven to be reliable and Jonnu (assuming healthy) is probably a top 6 TE in the league.  I feel like 7 targets will be what we will see more often than not.


his targets have been 8, 9, then 8. I think 8 targets will be the norm which is really all he needs in this greased up offensive juggernaught to pay low end WR1 dividends. Look out when he gets the inevitable 10-13 target game.

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2 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


his targets have been 8, 9, then 8. I think 8 targets will be the norm which is really all he needs in this greased up offensive juggernaught to pay low end WR1 dividends. Look out when he gets the inevitable 10-13 target game.

 

Probably would've happened last week if Henry didn't have 5000 yards and huge plays 

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We know how explosive he is, so I'm really encouraged to see him putting up these numbers without those home run plays. We know it's just a matter of time until those spike weeks come...

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47 minutes ago, cheezor42 said:


his targets have been 8, 9, then 8. I think 8 targets will be the norm which is really all he needs in this greased up offensive juggernaught to pay low end WR1 dividends. Look out when he gets the inevitable 10-13 target game.

hope youre right, i just imagine davis will take a target or two per game from him.  hopefully there will be other factors (ie henry not rushing for 200 yards) that will balance it out in the end....

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