A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

[Evincar 1,683]

That drop was inexcusable. I didnt watch the Bears game but apparently he dropped a few passes in that game. Hopefully he's not the next Amari Cooper lol.

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

9 minutes ago, Evincar said:

That drop was inexcusable. I didnt watch the Bears game but apparently he dropped a few passes in that game. Hopefully he's not the next Amari Cooper lol.

the dude needs ******** targets man- drops happen to almost all of them. He’s probably surprised whenever he gets a deep shot here or there. He needs 8-10 targets a game minimum and this coaching staff and tannehill has lost all credibility and effectiveness.

congrats guys- Derrick Henry got 100 yards! Here- go get blown out by 17 and not even play this game close at all.

Arthur smith sucks and honestly tannehill starting to be exposed now too. One read qb that won’t force feed it to their best player.

 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,886]

14 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

This is a weekly possibility with Brown. He's still a stud, but he doesn't get a lot of volume, and he has a low catch rate. This is his weekly floor. 

the floor for him is 40-50 yards, not one ******** reception with barely any targets 

[ajs723 3,197]

6 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

the floor for him is 40-50 yards, not one ******** reception with barely any targets 

The floor for him is 1-3 catches for 20-40 yards. We literally just saw it. He can take any play to the house, but he is still pretty boom bust, despite many booms this year.

He has two games over 5 catches this year, and had two games over 5 catches all of last year. 

Hard to say there's safety in a guy who's really unlikely to have more than 4 or 5 catches. 

[street sharks 3,238]

please remain calm

[ajs723 3,197]

RW says AJ Brown is a WR1/2 and Corey Davis is a WR4. Weird. Both have played the same number of games this season.

Brown has 32 catches on 52 targets for 478 yards.

Davis has 34 catches on 48 targets for 436 yards. 

Seems like they should be in the same tier. Brown does have 6 TDs to Davis's 3, but TDs for WR are basically impossible to predict, outside of a few players.

[Evincar 1,683]

5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

RW says AJ Brown is a WR1/2 and Corey Davis is a WR4. Weird. Both have played the same number of games this season.

Brown has 32 catches on 52 targets for 478 yards.

Davis has 34 catches on 48 targets for 436 yards. 

Seems like they should be in the same tier. Brown does have 6 TDs to Davis's 3, but TDs for WR are basically impossible to predict, outside of a few players.

 

Maybe they should be but Davis has yet to really prove in 4 years that he can be a reliable weekly starter.

Edited November 13, 2020 by Evincar

[ajs723 3,197]

15 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Maybe they should be but Davis has yet to really prove in 4 years that he can be a reliable weekly starter.

But we're not talking about 2018 Corey Davis. We're talking about this Corey Davis, this year, on this team. Davis and Brown are used at basically the exact same rate, and are producing at basically the exact same rate. The two are very much the same for fantasy right now. AJB just has the slight edge because he appears to get more use in the redzone.

Edited November 13, 2020 by ajs723

[TTo34 2,944]

1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

But we're not talking about 2018 Corey Davis. We're talking about this Corey Davis, this year, on this team. Davis and Brown are used at basically the exact same rate, and are producing at basically the exact same rate. The two are very much the same for fantasy right now. AJB just has the slight edge because he appears to get more use in the redzone.

If you had AJ and someone offered you Corey, would you accept it?

[ajs723 3,197]

11 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

If you had AJ and someone offered you Corey, would you accept it?

No. Of course not. But I think both guys are WR2s. AJ Brown is better at football, so he has more upside. But I think it's absurd to say one is a WR1 and the other is a WR4 when they've basically been the same guy. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by ajs723

[youngrice 1,303]

10 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

No. Of course not. But I think both guys are WR2s. AJ Brown is better at football, so he has more upside. But I think it's absurd to say one is a WR1 and the other is a WR4 when they've basically been the same guy. 

Coming into this game one guy was number number 6 overall in points per game and the other was number 29 in ppr. So yes they were wrong AJB is a WR1 and Davis is a WR3.

 

Dk had a 2 for 23 game, Hill had 3 for 20 game.  WR's have bad games.

Edited November 13, 2020 by youngrice

[fantasyscholar 36]

It's one bad game guys. He'll bounce back next week for sure

[TTo34 2,944]

16 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

No. Of course not. But I think both guys are WR2s. AJ Brown is better at football, so he has more upside. But I think it's absurd to say one is a WR1 and the other is a WR4 when they've basically been the same guy. 

The reasons that make you say "No. Of course not." are the exact same reasons why one is ranked lower than the other.  The same reasons why no one thought John Ross was a WR1 last year after week 2.  Whether you want to accept it or not, prior history does influence future behavior.  It's not easy to forget Corey's past few years.

[ajs723 3,197]

25 minutes ago, TTo34 said:

The reasons that make you say "No. Of course not." are the exact same reasons why one is ranked lower than the other.  The same reasons why no one thought John Ross was a WR1 last year after week 2.  Whether you want to accept it or not, prior history does influence future behavior.  It's not easy to forget Corey's past few years.

  I wouldn't trade Brown for Davis because I like Brown better. But not a lot better. If I was offered Davis plus something useful for Brown, I'd probably take it. I don't think the two will put up drastically different fantasy numbers for the rest of this season. The difference is that Brown's booms will be boomier. 

26 minutes ago, fantasyscholar said:

It's one bad game guys. He'll bounce back next week for sure

He's played 7 games. He's already had 3 bad games, not 1. He's also had two other meh games salvaged by one long TD. 

Brown is the definition of a boom bust WR2. He's had several really nice boom games, but he's just as likely to bust on a weekly basis. You can pencil Brown in for 4 or 5 catches on 7 or 8 targets weekly. If he breaks one into the endzone, great, you get your twenty fantasy points. If not, then you're probably looking at 10 points or worse. 

He isn't Tyreek Hill, and this isn't the Chiefs offense. WR1s routinely get double digit targets. Brown hasn't gotten 10 targets in a game this year, and very likely won't.  

[Gohawks 9,942]

1 hour ago, youngrice said:

.Dk had a 2 for 23 game, Hill had 3 for 20 game.  WR's have bad games.

The difference is we know what every week with those guys brings. They’re on teams that will come out slinging it with QBs that are elite passers who can hit these dudes anywhere on the field.

The Titans come out running it with a QB who gets the title of “elite manager”.

I’d say the probability of a Brown dud is a lot higher than a DK or Hill dud.

[SharkSwimmer 4,809]

If AJ Brown had caught that pass down the sideline in the first half, and he came extremely close to doing so, it would have been a very long TD play.

[Steve-O 44]

Disappointing to see as we creep up on ff playoffs. Plainly speaking, as a NFL wide receiver he needs to haul those catches in, especially with the limited targets. Lost a lot of confidence in him after last night. I’m sure he’s as hard on himself, so hopefully he wipes off that butter on his fingers and bounces back going forward. Another tough matchup next week @Bal. 

[this guy right here 986]

*click* 

 

 

"Note to self....if you ever become a stud WR, make it to the NFL and Tannehill is your QB, don't drop a beautiful pass for a TD. He won't throw it to you anymore."

 

*click*

 

 

Edited November 13, 2020 by this guy right here

[daethfromabove1979 874]

3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If AJ Brown had caught that pass down the sideline in the first half, and he came extremely close to doing so, it would have been a very long TD play.

Yes but he dropped it. Likely had a role in then losing the game too. Then he got another ball right on the money and he dropped that too. Just an awful game from him, can’t blame Tannehill for not looking his way after that.

[SundayGravy 86]

4 targets is criminal. That drop sucked but everyone drops passes. They know what they have, what a special talent he is. Just no excuse to not pepper this guy with targets. Horrible gameplan last night and they got whipped. 

[HeHateMe23 119]

I hate their offense..  pound Henry is really all they like to do..  Tannehill is not good. 

Low volume, pray for a long TD offense for these WRs..

[genya 88]

AJ Brown needs to be used like Deebo Samuel. Titans need to scheme to get him the ball with some end-arounds and screen passes because he's deadly in open space.

 

During the game there were at least two play-action plays where AJ wasn't even on the field, and one 3rd and 18 in field goal range where Tannehill threw to a diving Firkser into like triple coverage 3 yards short of first down. If you're willing to just get closer for a FG there why not throw a screen to AJ and see what he can do. Just not a good use of talent on the team. 

[griffin727 950]

This type of game was bound to happen eventually. 

[USWAY 364]

A.J. Brown is one of the better WRs in the game, but the offense is still not fantasy friendly. He will never get force-fed, Tannehill is a one-read QB, and when they get down the OCs inclination is to stick with establishing the run with Henry 😂. Still he's a low-end WR1 with considerable upside every week.

Also, he had his chance for the 70 yard bomb and dropped it. That's on him. But he definitely seemed frustrated at his lack of involvement later in the game.

[ajs723 3,197]

5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If AJ Brown had caught that pass down the sideline in the first half, and he came extremely close to doing so, it would have been a very long TD play.

But that's the thing, Brown needs that one big play in order to produce. Hence, boom/bust. You can't expect him to have a 50 yard TD every week, and if he doesn't, he's likely to bust.