LarryDavid

A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

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I'm torn, because I think he is absolutely special, but this offense worries me, and it probably always will. The playoff games really show how volatile AJB can be.

However, the loss of Conklin is going to hurt their running game and they may be forced to pass more, especially given the losses of Woodyard, Casey, and Logan Ryan on defense. The Titans run game seems to factor in heavier later in the season, as Henry seems fresh while defenses look gassed, so potentially AJB could get a higher target share early on.

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On 8/28/2020 at 12:54 AM, Agmaniacmike said:

I'm torn, because I think he is absolutely special, but this offense worries me, and it probably always will. The playoff games really show how volatile AJB can be.

However, the loss of Conklin is going to hurt their running game and they may be forced to pass more, especially given the losses of Woodyard, Casey, and Logan Ryan on defense. The Titans run game seems to factor in heavier later in the season, as Henry seems fresh while defenses look gassed, so potentially AJB could get a higher target share early on.

 

I spent $29 on him in an auction ($200 budget). This is the year to skip alpha WRs and target those really ascending players, and even Beckham on the cheap in the mid rounds.

I'm super high on him...expecting 1200 and 10. 

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3 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

I spent $29 on him in an auction ($200 budget). This is the year to skip alpha WRs and target those really ascending players, and even Beckham on the cheap in the mid rounds.

I'm super high on him...expecting 1200 and 10. 

I'm 100% with you, it's worth taking some risks. Odell at 35-45 is easy money. I'd bet on AJB being a WR1 over a WR3, which is essentially the risk at his price point, if he is a WR2 then you aren't really out much.

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On 8/31/2020 at 9:46 AM, Agmaniacmike said:

I'm 100% with you, it's worth taking some risks. Odell at 35-45 is easy money. I'd bet on AJB being a WR1 over a WR3, which is essentially the risk at his price point, if he is a WR2 then you aren't really out much.

 

The problem I have is when they don't throw much...but I can't expect as efficient and magical a season they had last year. He needs his volume to stabilize...if it does, sky's the limit.

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

The problem I have is when they don't throw much...but I can't expect as efficient and magical a season they had last year. He needs his volume to stabilize...if it does, sky's the limit.


fear not, this man will be fed good and well this year. He’s always open and he cannot be tackled.  Bet on the talent and be rewarded.

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Planning on taking him at 2/3 turn over Kupp and Mike Evan's.  (Assuming  both Golladay and Godwin are gone)

The footballers jason who seems very knowledge pointed out he was WR overall once his snap count went to 85% after the buy 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, jbarretta said:

Planning on taking him at 2/3 turn over Kupp and Mike Evan's.  (Assuming  both Golladay and Godwin are gone)

The footballers jason who seems very knowledge pointed out he was WR overall once his snap count went to 85% after the bye

 

 

 

Huge fan of AJ but think Evans is the call if he's there.  I also expect Evans to outscore Godwin this season.  Not much news since Brown missed some practice, so he may be fine or he may start off a bit slower in terms of snaps/production.

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took the dive on AJ over DJ Moore for the ceiling. I think Moore is safer as his route running suits Teddy but can't see many TDs. AJ can pop off if Titans throw it a tad more and he stays healthy

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11 hours ago, jbarretta said:

Planning on taking him at 2/3 turn over Kupp and Mike Evan's.  (Assuming  both Golladay and Godwin are gone)

The footballers jason who seems very knowledge pointed out he was WR overall once his snap count went to 85% after the buy 

 

 

 

Taking Brown over Evans and Kupp in redraft is straight up certifiable. And I like Brown.

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I’d take AJ all day over Kupp as well.  Evans And AJ are co close for me and honestly I could flip flop those two every other hour.  
 

AJ has crazy high upside and a relatively good floor as he’s the alpha receiver easily on this team. And alphas floors are always low.  Every time AJ touches the ball in space he’s glides down the field like a gazelle and has the strength of an Ox.  Dudes a straight beast now you mix the speed of a gazelle and the strength of an Ox You got yourself one ☝️ certified 110% BEAST.  Evans is big and has decent speed but he’s another year old and brown another year learning the NFL learning curve.  But Evans has the goat throwing to him so you never know.  Winston has a 1:1 td/Int while brady is the least prone TO qb of the last decade.  Tough choice if you ask me , I’m leaning a little Evans at this moment, but it’s too close to call
 

 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Taking Brown over Evans and Kupp in redraft is straight up certifiable. And I like Brown.

I'd take Evans over AJ, reports are that he is the one establishing the connection with Brady and not Godwin.

Not unreasonable to take AJ over Kupp, who wasn't on the field as much once the Rams went to two TE sets.  Rams apparently rebuffed trade inquiries for Everett and McVay has said they've got stuff in store for him.  So it seems like the 2 TE formations are still going to be coming.  

 

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11 hours ago, CooL said:

I'd take Evans over AJ, reports are that he is the one establishing the connection with Brady and not Godwin.

Not unreasonable to take AJ over Kupp, who wasn't on the field as much once the Rams went to two TE sets.  Rams apparently rebuffed trade inquiries for Everett and McVay has said they've got stuff in store for him.  So it seems like the 2 TE formations are still going to be coming.  

 

I've made my feelings about Kupp pretty clear on this forum, so I wont derail this thread. Suffice it to say Kupp remains the most overlooked and underrated player in fantasy. Kupp will see more volume than Brown. I think his weekly floor is higher. I think his weekly ceiling is higher. I think he'll be more consistently reliable. Other than being younger for the purposes of dynasty and keeper leagues, I can't think of one reason I'd take Brown over Kupp.

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22 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I've made my feelings about Kupp pretty clear on this forum, so I wont derail this thread. Suffice it to say Kupp remains the most overlooked and underrated player in fantasy. Kupp will see more volume than Brown. I think his weekly floor is higher. I think his weekly ceiling is higher. I think he'll be more consistently reliable. Other than being younger for the purposes of dynasty and keeper leagues, I can't think of one reason I'd take Brown over Kupp.

I own Brown and would have taken Kupp if he was available.  I do think Brown has the higher ceiling though simply based on lack of other options in the passing game....

Edited by herschel
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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

I've made my feelings about Kupp pretty clear on this forum, so I wont derail this thread. Suffice it to say Kupp remains the most overlooked and underrated player in fantasy. Kupp will see more volume than Brown. I think his weekly floor is higher. I think his weekly ceiling is higher. I think he'll be more consistently reliable. Other than being younger for the purposes of dynasty and keeper leagues, I can't think of one reason I'd take Brown over Kupp.

 

Floor and reliability, sure. But AJ's theoretical ceiling is unmatched - he has the potential (whether likely or not) to be a top-5 WR. It'd take some injuries for Kupp to even approach that possibility. With Kupp you're hoping for Keenan numbers; with AJ you're hoping he takes the second-year leap and finishes in the top 5.

 

In PPR, Kupp is a no-brainer. Otherwise, probably just depends on your risk tolerance...

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The fact that the rams seem to be tipping their hand towards the same heavy two TE sets that seemed to correlate with Kupps lesser involvement towards end of 2019 has me ranking AJB ahead of him.  


The ceiling is too juicy and I’d rather shoot for the moon. I, like many, just have a gut feeling about what’s coming for AJB after what I saw last year on tape.  I don’t blame folks for wanting a safer bet but I play this game to win, and you win by getting a consistent stud in r1/2 and then hitting on a few AJB type home runs.

Edited by cheezor42
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1 hour ago, herschel said:

I own Brown and would have taken Kupp if he was available.  I do think Brown has the higher ceiling though simply based on lack of other options in the passing game....

Kupp was the overall WR4 last season. Unless you think Brown is going to be the best WR in fantasy, his ceiling literally can't be much higher, lol.

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1 hour ago, TLBDS said:

 

Floor and reliability, sure. But AJ's theoretical ceiling is unmatched - he has the potential (whether likely or not) to be a top-5 WR. It'd take some injuries for Kupp to even approach that possibility. With Kupp you're hoping for Keenan numbers; with AJ you're hoping he takes the second-year leap and finishes in the top 5.

 

In PPR, Kupp is a no-brainer. Otherwise, probably just depends on your risk tolerance...

Lmao!!!!! He has the potential to be a top 5 WR. Unlike Kupp, who already was a top 5 WR last year. 

Hmm, I could have Kupp, or the guy that might possibly, if I'm lucky, be as good as Kupp already is. 

Damn, tough call. 

Edited by ajs723

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27 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Kupp was the overall WR4 last season. Unless you think Brown is going to be the best WR in fantasy, his ceiling literally can't be much higher, lol.

And Saquon was the RB10 last year but unfortunately he didn’t fall that far in my draft.  I said I would have taken Kupp over Brown if he was available.  I also think Browns ceiling is higher for 2020.  

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Brown best WR in the AFC , stop playing him like that.  Time to put some respect on this young cats name 

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I don't get it.  Nick Chubb gets a preseason downgrade because his stats tailed off after Kareem Hunt entered the picture.

Cooper Kupp started out hot.  Before the week 9 bye, he had 5 games out of 8 with over 100 yards, including one for 220 yards.  But after the bye, the Rams moved away from 3WR sets and played a lot more 2 TE sets.  He was on the bench a lot, and it's no coincidence that is when Tyler Higbee became a fantasy darling.  He saved his second half by scoring a TD in every game, so that's a positive, but his targets and playing time were way down.  The Rams trading away Cooks and rebuffing trade offers for Gerald Everett only seems to solidify the notion that they will continue with the heavy 2 TE sets.  This hurts Kupp obviously.

Meanwhile, AJ Brown was the WR3 from weeks 11 to 16.  

If we're going to follow trends, it seems like AJ Brown's outlook is way more positive than Kupp.  Last season was just the beginning of showing what he can do when given the opportunity.  Titans don't throw much blah blah blah.  Well, they have to throw sometime, and there is going to be a huge target share coming Brown's way.

I can't fault anyone for taking Kupp just to chase his high finish last season.  But look at the stats.  Very TD dependent in the second half of the year which is what saved him.

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6 minutes ago, CooL said:

I don't get it.  Nick Chubb gets a preseason downgrade because his stats tailed off after Kareem Hunt entered the picture.

Cooper Kupp started out hot.  Before the week 9 bye, he had 5 games out of 8 with over 100 yards, including one for 220 yards.  But after the bye, the Rams moved away from 3WR sets and played a lot more 2 TE sets.  He was on the bench a lot, and it's no coincidence that is when Tyler Higbee became a fantasy darling.  He saved his second half by scoring a TD in every game, so that's a positive, but his targets and playing time were way down.  The Rams trading away Cooks and rebuffing trade offers for Gerald Everett only seems to solidify the notion that they will continue with the heavy 2 TE sets.  This hurts Kupp obviously.

Meanwhile, AJ Brown was the WR3 from weeks 11 to 16.  

If we're going to follow trends, it seems like AJ Brown's outlook is way more positive than Kupp.  Last season was just the beginning of showing what he can do when given the opportunity.  Titans don't throw much blah blah blah.  Well, they have to throw sometime, and there is going to be a huge target share coming Brown's way.

I can't fault anyone for taking Kupp just to chase his high finish last season.  But look at the stats.  Very TD dependent in the second half of the year which is what saved him.

Okay, but on the other hand, Kupp is averaging 18 fantasy points per game over his last 30 healthy NFL games going back to his rookie year. 

AJ Brown, meanwhile, has 3 games in his career with more than 4 receptions.

I'm not hating on Brown, I'd take him over Kupp in a dynasty league and I think he's going to be special. But for this season, it isnt close. One guy has been a set and forget WR1 for 2 or 3 years, the other has played a few good games in his career. 

Also, stop with the "OMG, they're phasing Kupp out of their offense." You really think Van Jefferson, a mid round rookie, is going to pass a perennial superstar on the depth chart. McVay will find ways to keep Kupp on the field enough for him to produce, just like he always has. 

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Many people here are sorely underrating Brown and Tannehill. Tannehill only started 10 games last season and had 22 TDs passing and 2,700 passing yards. Over 16 games that would work out to 32 TDs and 4,300 yards. It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Tannehill to throw for 30-35 TDs and 4,200-4,500 yards. As a highly talented WR and number 1 on this team, Brown could be a top 5 fantasy WR. Brown will be in nearly every snap. In regards to Kupp comparison, he’s still inherently limited because of his role. 

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I think Brown is like the perfect WR2 if you can pair him with a high floor with WR1 like Arob or DJ Moore. But you will probably have to draft them in consecutive rounds. AJB has week winning upside every time he's out there you just have to be covered for the inevitable 2-29-0 type days. And if your league has any type of bonus for 40+ or 50+ yard TDs that a nice little boost to his value. 

Edited by mulhollandvelvet
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1 hour ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

Many people here are sorely underrating Brown and Tannehill. Tannehill only started 10 games last season and had 22 TDs passing and 2,700 passing yards. Over 16 games that would work out to 32 TDs and 4,300 yards. It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Tannehill to throw for 30-35 TDs and 4,200-4,500 yards. As a highly talented WR and number 1 on this team, Brown could be a top 5 fantasy WR. Brown will be in nearly every snap. In regards to Kupp comparison, he’s still inherently limited because of his role. 

Those Tannehill projections are really high. Russell Wilson threw for 4100 yards last year. You're basically predicting Matt Ryan numbers for Tannehill. Honestly, he'll probably be around 3500 yards, not 4500. Doesn't mean Brown can put up good numbers, but it does make it a little harder.

And yeah sure, Kupp is stuck in a limited role..a limited role where he's one of the most targeted WRs in the league, and one of the highest used red zone players. Cooper "Rodney Dangerfield" Kupp. What does the poor dude have to do?

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6 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Those Tannehill projections are really high. Russell Wilson threw for 4100 yards last year. You're basically predicting Matt Ryan numbers for Tannehill. Honestly, he'll probably be around 3500 yards, not 4500. Doesn't mean Brown can put up good numbers, but it does make it a little harder.

And yeah sure, Kupp is stuck in a limited role..a limited role where he's one of the most targeted WRs in the league, and one of the highest used red zone players. Cooper "Rodney Dangerfield" Kupp. What does the poor dude have to do?

 

Dude this is your fifth post today about Kupp in the AJ Brown thread, just stop. 

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