LarryDavid

A.J. Brown 2020 Outlook

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59 minutes ago, stay_woke said:

 

Dude this is your fifth post today about Kupp in the AJ Brown thread, just stop. 

Word. Moving on. 

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I was not actively drafting him but kind of had to so now own. I know he's likely the best physical specimen at WR since Tron but what it comes down to is how much you trust Tannehill. I do not. 

If AJ were to compile 1000/10 TDs this year I'd be ecstatic. Anything more would be gravy imo. It all comes down to his QB proving last year was no fluke.

As many have said here - there is a high floor for this young man. He is a TD option in red zone situations all day long and he will cash some of them.

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#1 Rule: Bet on talent first. Everyone remembers Josh Gordon tearing it up with Brandon Freaking Weeden. Tannehill will get him the ball.

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Those Tannehill projections are really high. Russell Wilson threw for 4100 yards last year. You're basically predicting Matt Ryan numbers for Tannehill. Honestly, he'll probably be around 3500 yards, not 4500. Doesn't mean Brown can put up good numbers, but it does make it a little harder.

And yeah sure, Kupp is stuck in a limited role..a limited role where he's one of the most targeted WRs in the league, and one of the highest used red zone players. Cooper "Rodney Dangerfield" Kupp. What does the poor dude have to do?

 

Those are literally his per game average numbers extrapolated across 16 games. Nobody expected him to play that well last yr. And now he comes into the season knowing he’s the starter, with a highly successful finish to last season under his belt. Last season he was coming off a major injury from yr before and into a new system, and he had a 117 QBR with a per game average stats that would equal 4,300 yards and 32 TDs PLUS 6 rushing TDs (had 4 in the 10 games). 

 

Kupp sure wasn’t one of the most targeted after week 8 last season 

Edited by Uncle_Ruckus

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I’m not worried about Tannehill at all. He won’t be nearly as efficient as last year but he’s always been fairly decent, his worst years were with Adam Gase coaching him, go figure! 

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2 hours ago, Uncle_Ruckus said:

 

Those are literally his per game average numbers extrapolated across 16 games. Nobody expected him to play that well last yr. And now he comes into the season knowing he’s the starter, with a highly successful finish to last season under his belt. Last season he was coming off a major injury from yr before and into a new system, and he had a 117 QBR with a per game average stats that would equal 4,300 yards and 32 TDs PLUS 6 rushing TDs (had 4 in the 10 games). 

 

Kupp sure wasn’t one of the most targeted after week 8 last season 

I like Tannehill. Always have. I certainly hope you're right and he proves the doubters wrong. Still, if I had to bet, I'm definitely taking the under on 4000 yards passing. It would be cool if he became a genuinely great QB though, and it would launch Brown into the stratosphere!

Alright, I want to be done with this Kupp, but I can't just let that go.

Yes, there were two straight outlier weeks against elite defenses where Kupp disappeared. It happens. Let's look at the last 6 weeks of last season, when the Rams were supposedly phasing out Kupp, and Brown was breaking out.

Over those final 6 weeks:

Kupp pace: 88 receptions, 112 targets.

Brown pace: 66 receptions, 104 targets

Could also point out that those late season projections are heavily skewed by one game where he had 8 grabs and 13 targets, basically twice as many as any other game of the season. 

 

Let's just end the comparison here. If I were to project the two it would look something like this.

Brown: 60 receptions, 1100, 8TDs

Kupp: 90 receptions, 1100, 10 TDs

Both are good numbers, but Kupp is the clear choice in any format.

Edited by ajs723

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

 

And yeah sure, Kupp is stuck in a limited role..a limited role where he's one of the most targeted WRs in the league

During the final 8 games (second half) of the season A.J. Brown out targeted Cooper Kupp. 

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1 hour ago, mulhollandvelvet said:

During the final 8 games (second half) of the season A.J. Brown out targeted Cooper Kupp. 

Again, outlier driven.

There were 14 weeks where both Kupp and Brown played. Kupp had more targets 12 put of those 14 weeks. 

In any given week, there's about a 90% chance Kupp is seeing more targets than Brown. 

Yardage will be similar, but Kupp is going to get way more volume! 

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47 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Again, outlier driven.

There were 14 weeks where both Kupp and Brown played. Kupp had more targets 12 put of those 14 weeks. 

In any given week, there's about a 90% chance Kupp is seeing more targets than Brown. 

Yardage will be similar, but Kupp is going to get way more volume! 

I'm not sure if you think rookies don't usually get more targets their second season. but.... they almost always do i would assume especially when they lead all rookie WR's in yards the prior season. 

Rookie year target amount/ compared to / second year target amount.

Julio Jones +33

Tyreek Hill +22

Davante Adams +28

Chris Godwin +40

DJ Moore +53

Allen Robinson +70

Kenny Golladay +61

DeAndre Hopkins  +36

Mike Evans +26

Keenan Allen +26

Antonio Brown +105

Courtland Sutton +40

Stefon Diggs +28

Odell Beckham +28

TY Hilton +49

AJ Green +49

Brandin Cooks +60

Larry Fitzgerald +50

Demaryius Thomas +41

Alshon Jefferey +100 (this one may be based on injury it being who it is and all)

Randall Cobb +71

His average targets without Tannehill starting was 3.83

With him starting was 6.1 which equals 97.6 for the season based on the players increases above a conservative increase in targets would be 25 for a total of 127. And that would be a total of 12 less targets than Kupp last season, or about .8 targets more per game.

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2 hours ago, Bowman said:

With Kupp and AJB as my top two WRs, I hope you are both right. 

 

I came, I saw, I Bowmaned !

Well played 

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27 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I have been drafting this guy in all of my leagues, seems like an absolute steal grabbing him in the 40s, am i missing something?

 

Did you check his stats in the Wild Card, division round and conference championship? Thats why he's in 40s

Edited by Itachi_is_the_goat

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2 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Did you check his stats in the Wild Card, division round and conference championship? Thats why he's in 40s

 

To be fair- no receiver on the Titans really had good stats in the playoffs. Titans run-first offense works well in the playoffs and late in the season, until they run into an offensive buzzsaw like the Chiefs. 

There is buzz to O-line regression as well as defensive regression (Clowney may or may not turn fortunes but they were desperate enough to sign him for what he wanted a week before the season.)

Also, he was a rookie. He's entering year 2 after beasting in year 1, once he became a full-time player.

Only AJ Brown has top 3 to 5 potential in the range of where he's being drafted. Not Kupp, not Woods (in their current QB and TE situation), not Beckham, Thielen maybe.

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16 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Did you check his stats in the Wild Card, division round and conference championship? Thats why he's in 40s


Yeah I’m aware that they did nothing but hand the ball to Derrick Henry in the playoffs, but that’s not going to be the game plan for the entire season.

If Henry actually got hurt and missed time, I would imagine AJ Brown would go berserk.

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1 minute ago, daethfromabove1979 said:


Yeah I’m aware that they did nothing but hand the ball to Derrick Henry in the playoffs, but that’s not going to be the game plan for the entire season.

If Henry actually got hurt and missed time, I would imagine AJ Brown would go berserk.

 

Check week 16 vs Saints 

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22 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

To be fair- no receiver on the Titans really had good stats in the playoffs. Titans run-first offense works well in the playoffs and late in the season, until they run into an offensive buzzsaw like the Chiefs. 

There is buzz to O-line regression as well as defensive regression (Clowney may or may not turn fortunes but they were desperate enough to sign him for what he wanted a week before the season.)

Also, he was a rookie. He's entering year 2 after beasting in year 1, once he became a full-time player.

Only AJ Brown has top 3 to 5 potential in the range of where he's being drafted. Not Kupp, not Woods (in their current QB and TE situation), not Beckham, Thielen maybe.

Kupp doesn't have the potential to do... what he did last year, even though Cooks is now gone. Sure thing.

Vegas has Kupp's over/under at 90 catches for 1100 yards. There are a lot of people who should be putting their life savings on the unders there.

7 hours ago, peleincubus said:

I'm not sure if you think rookies don't usually get more targets their second season. but.... they almost always do i would assume especially when they lead all rookie WR's in yards the prior season. 

Rookie year target amount/ compared to / second year target amount.

Julio Jones +33

Tyreek Hill +22

Davante Adams +28

Chris Godwin +40

DJ Moore +53

Allen Robinson +70

Kenny Golladay +61

DeAndre Hopkins  +36

Mike Evans +26

Keenan Allen +26

Antonio Brown +105

Courtland Sutton +40

Stefon Diggs +28

Odell Beckham +28

TY Hilton +49

AJ Green +49

Brandin Cooks +60

Larry Fitzgerald +50

Demaryius Thomas +41

Alshon Jefferey +100 (this one may be based on injury it being who it is and all)

Randall Cobb +71

His average targets without Tannehill starting was 3.83

With him starting was 6.1 which equals 97.6 for the season based on the players increases above a conservative increase in targets would be 25 for a total of 127. And that would be a total of 12 less targets than Kupp last season, or about .8 targets more per game.

If you think AJ Brown is going to get 130 targets, then you should be taking him one first WRs off the board because he's going to put up 90+ catches, 1200-1300 yards, and probably 8-10 TDs. 

He has more than enough talent to do this, but I just don't see that volume happening. Every projection I see has him around 90-95 targets, at most. That seems reasonable to me.

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54 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If you think AJ Brown is going to get 130 targets, then you should be taking him one first WRs off the board because he's going to put up 90+ catches, 1200-1300 yards, and probably 8-10 TDs. 

He has more than enough talent to do this, but I just don't see that volume happening. Every projection I see has him around 90-95 targets, at most. That seems reasonable to me.

 

120 targets seems realistic to me, Mariota/Tannehill had a combined 446 throws last year and they really should be force feeding Brown the ball. 

Regarding the 90-95 targets, any projections made by the 'experts' are always super conservative, they always project similar numbers to the year prior.

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13 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

 

120 targets seems realistic to me, Mariota/Tannehill had a combined 446 throws last year and they really should be force feeding Brown the ball. 

Regarding the 90-95 targets, any projections made by the 'experts' are always super conservative, they always project similar numbers to the year prior.

Fair enough. I do think he'll definitely see an uptick. But I also think the predictions being made here a bit optimistic. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Kupp doesn't have the potential to do... what he did last year, even though Cooks is now gone. Sure thing.

Vegas has Kupp's over/under at 90 catches for 1100 yards. There are a lot of people who should be putting their life savings on the unders there.

If you think AJ Brown is going to get 130 targets, then you should be taking him one first WRs off the board because he's going to put up 90+ catches, 1200-1300 yards, and probably 8-10 TDs. 

He has more than enough talent to do this, but I just don't see that volume happening. Every projection I see has him around 90-95 targets, at most. That seems reasonable to me.

I don't really "think" anything. All i did was show the average amount with the QB he has this year and added 25. sooo yeah

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8 minutes ago, peleincubus said:

I don't really "think" anything. All i did was show the average amount with the QB he has this year and added 25. sooo yeah

But you can't just do that and mic drop.

If you take Steven Sims targets after the week 10 bye last year, extrapolate it over 16 games, then add 25. Sims would be looking at 130 targets this year. 

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Brown wasn't really on my radar, but I felt like he was BPA at pick 59. I believe in the talent, but reading all the articles about Tannehill regression, YAC regression, and titans low passing volume has me a little bit concerned. Hopefully they feed the man.

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Has anyone heard if Brown is going to play for sure this week?  It looks like he still has a "q" (questionable) tag on yahoo.

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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

Has anyone heard if Brown is going to play for sure this week?  It looks like he still has a "q" (questionable) tag on yahoo.

Hes playing.

 

 

A.J. Brown said #Titans are conditioning after practice, readying for trip to Denver in the high altitude.

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On 9/8/2020 at 12:42 PM, ajs723 said:

But you can't just do that and mic drop.

If you take Steven Sims targets after the week 10 bye last year, extrapolate it over 16 games, then add 25. Sims would be looking at 130 targets this year. 

all i did was pick the week that they changed QB's to what he will have this entire season. it is not just a random week where his targets increased that i picked to make an argument. but whatevers have a good one and good luck with your season.

 

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