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Delanie gone for good. Anyone else feeling a breakout for this freak athlete. He's just turning 25 this summer and has 3 seasons under his belt, flashing his crazy athleticism last season. I could easily see him becoming the number 2 option behind AJB. It looks like this will be Davis' last season in Tennessee and this is a perfect year for him to start his breakout as he ends his rookie contract. It usually takes TE's to around age 25-26 to really start flourishing. I like him over guys like Fant, Goedert, Hockenson, Cook, Doyle, Thomas. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we are talking about a top 12 TE this year and top 8-10 going into 2021

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When Jonnu sees Firsker ball out.

Love the talent of Jonnu Smith - unsure of the opportunity. Dude is a freak athlete - 93rd percentile SPARQ score, 100th percentile breakout age, 92nd percentile college dominator rating.  So the

I'm here to say that I started this forum and I hope you all listened. Congrats if you did.

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He made his share of big plays but I'm not optimistic that he can get enough targets to make me want to start him weekly.  

Of the guys you mentioned, i'd certainly take Goedert, Cook, and Doyle over him, and i'd add Gesicki.   The rest are all equally in the mix.  

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

He made his share of big plays but I'm not optimistic that he can get enough targets to make me want to start him weekly.  

Of the guys you mentioned, i'd certainly take Goedert, Cook, and Doyle over him, and i'd add Gesicki.   The rest are all equally in the mix.  

 

Well, it is worth mentioning how Jonnu did with Tannehill as QB. Tannehill didn't start until week 7. 

 

In Tannehills starts for Tennessee weeks 7-17 Jonnu Smith never had a Snap share less than 73% in any of those games. In those 10 games he scored 97.75 fantasy points. He had some huge games but most noticeably during the fantasy playoffs he posted 11.9, 19.5, 18.8 through weeks 14-16. 

 

Color me impressed. Going Into next season with no Delanie Walker, contract year for Jonnu. 73% snap share and usually higher in every game Tannehill started. Got rushes and receptions, I don't know about y'all but that is very impressive.

 

He had 44 targets and 36 catches last year and as previously noted he wasn't really involved till Tannehill took over 

 

Hopefully a full season with Tannehill and a snap share of 73% or higher per game, he could get 80 targets 65 catches, 800 yards and 6 TDs 

 

For reference: Mike Gesiki had 5 games with a 73% Snap share all season

Jonnu Smith had 10 straight games with a 73% snap share or higher. All 10 in a row that Tannehill started 👀

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

He made his share of big plays but I'm not optimistic that he can get enough targets to make me want to start him weekly.  

Of the guys you mentioned, i'd certainly take Goedert, Cook, and Doyle over him, and i'd add Gesicki.   The rest are all equally in the mix.  

 

Short-sighted. Goedert had everything break right for him last year with their receiver debacle and we saw a ceiling of 600/5--highly unlikely his target share increases at all with Reager in the fold. Colts have Hilton back healthy and have Campbell and Pittman as significant upgrades from the receiver group they were trotting out last season. Doyle possess zero upside. New Orleans added Emmanuel Sanders who is leaps and bounds ahead of any number 2 receiver they've had in years, Cooks is due for major regression in yards and TD's. Gesicki I would take over Jonnu but I think you can make an argument either way. Jonnu was significantly more efficient with his targets, had a better YPC and is better after the catch. Just to put things in perspective, Jonnu had 517 total yards to Gesicki's 570 on 45 fewer targets. Another thing I love about Jonnu is that he is a year younger than Goedert but had has an additional season in the league and is the same age as Gesicki but has a season on him. If he breaks out it will be happening this year or next and with Delanie gone and it being a contract year everything about Jonnu screams breakout. 

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Cook can't match his upside, but his floor is much safer.  I think he's established with Brees right now.   Obviously when you wait that long to go TE, there's an argument over whether there's even a point to taking a higher floor guy or taking on more upside, but that's a different debate of course.

Goedert- maybe he was a beneficiary a bit, or maybe he's as good as Ertz?  Fair point there about target shares, but Jeffery is still out, i have no faith in DeSean lasting a season, Agholor is gone, and the first rounder is no sure thing.  I'm bullish on Goedert, i think he's a TE1 talent who just happens to share with another one.   

Doyle is a personal preference.  Rivers has good TE history.  They could very easily try to mimic the Titans and run like hell, this one's debateable of course.  

Gesicki, of all these guys, probably is on the team with the worst defense, AND the worst run game.  They'll pass often, and he got a lot of slot snaps, and red zone time.   The kid's got a crazy opportunity coming his way, and i think he'll pull down enough TD's to make him a great target.  

Jonnu, out of all these guys, sits as the one who has the offense that'll run the most, and the best defense.   Naturally, that's less passing.   If i felt he was a sure stud, id grab him, but what's he going to do even with 5 targets a game?  Maybe 4-5 TE1 weekly games at best, and that's not bad, per se, but you gotta eat a lot of **** to make those worth it

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

Cook can't match his upside, but his floor is much safer.  I think he's established with Brees right now.   Obviously when you wait that long to go TE, there's an argument over whether there's even a point to taking a higher floor guy or taking on more upside, but that's a different debate of course.

Goedert- maybe he was a beneficiary a bit, or maybe he's as good as Ertz?  Fair point there about target shares, but Jeffery is still out, i have no faith in DeSean lasting a season, Agholor is gone, and the first rounder is no sure thing.  I'm bullish on Goedert, i think he's a TE1 talent who just happens to share with another one.   

Doyle is a personal preference.  Rivers has good TE history.  They could very easily try to mimic the Titans and run like hell, this one's debateable of course.  

Gesicki, of all these guys, probably is on the team with the worst defense, AND the worst run game.  They'll pass often, and he got a lot of slot snaps, and red zone time.   The kid's got a crazy opportunity coming his way, and i think he'll pull down enough TD's to make him a great target.  

Jonnu, out of all these guys, sits as the one who has the offense that'll run the most, and the best defense.   Naturally, that's less passing.   If i felt he was a sure stud, id grab him, but what's he going to do even with 5 targets a game?  Maybe 4-5 TE1 weekly games at best, and that's not bad, per se, but you gotta eat a lot of **** to make those worth it

 

Let me put this in perspective. If you gave Jonnu just 80 targets (the 5 a game you mentioned) he would have finished with a 62/777/5 line for 169.7 ppr points which would have been good for TE7 last year. If you combined his and Delanie Walker's numbers from last year you would have a 56/724/5 line for 158.4 ppr points which would have put him at TE9 (2 points below TE8). Somewhere in between this 7-10 range seems more than reasonable (of course he could fall short but for me I don't see any reason he shouldn't soak up Delanie's numbers from last year) and he's currently being ranked at 16.8 amongst TE's--below all the guys you named and tied with Doyle. Why wouldn't you take his upside at the cheapest price?

Also, Bill B praising him and calling him the best TE in the league after the catch is just one of many things that speaks to his upside.

https://www.masslive.com/patriots/2020/01/bill-belichick-titans-tight-end-jonnu-smith-probably-the-best-in-the-league-after-the-catch.html

Edited by paulwall29
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Re: him being in a run first offense being a knock on him compared to those other guys. That doesn't concern me that much. Jonnu has a great chance to be the number 2 targeted player in the offense and was significantly better when Tannehill took over later in the season. The Titans pass catchers are the exact same with the exception of losing Delanie. Goedert had Alshon miss 6 games and, pathetically, he was still the highest targeted receiver on the team with 43 targets. Now he is healthy, DeSean is healthy, they signed Marquis Goodwin, Arcega-Whiteside is entering his second season, Greg Ward has a full season under his belt and the spent a first round pick on Jalen Raeger. I agree that Goedert is a great talent but that doesn't change his situation with Ertz in front of him and additional talent around him. For the Saints, Ginn was their second highest targeted receiver with 50 targets, now they've replaced him with Sanders and drafted Trautman. For the Colts, TY missed 6 games and still led the team in targets with 45 (while playing banged up when he did play), now he is healthy, they drafted Michael Pittman and Parris Campbell is entering his 2nd season. Ebron being gone only vacated 30 targets--I see Campbell and Pittman soaking that up and then some. Like I said, totally see taking Gesicki over Jonnu but I think it's closer than many think and would be fine with taking Jonnu at a discount..

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I think he offers a serious value in the later RDs, def a path to him being the #2 target and a go-to playmaker for Tanne.

His routes, speed/power and hands are all really dynamic. Great buy in dynasty too.

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Definitely targeting him if waiting on TE, might even try to pair him with Gesicki. Unless you’re playing in a deep league. One of them if not both, have a solid chance at finishing in the top10 

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PFF projects him for 46/544/4 - which honestly looks a bit light to me.  He’s a fine later-round selection if you’re inclined to wait on TE - the idea of pairing him with Gesicki (whom I love as a value pick this season) intrigues me.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

PFF projects him for 46/544/4 - which honestly looks a bit light to me.  He’s a fine later-round selection if you’re inclined to wait on TE - the idea of pairing him with Gesicki (whom I love as a value pick this season) intrigues me.

 

 

1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

Definitely targeting him if waiting on TE, might even try to pair him with Gesicki. Unless you’re playing in a deep league. One of them if not both, have a solid chance at finishing in the top10 

That's what I'm going to do in my dynasty league and hopefully in my redraft

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

PFF projects him for 46/544/4 - which honestly looks a bit light to me.  He’s a fine later-round selection if you’re inclined to wait on TE - the idea of pairing him with Gesicki (whom I love as a value pick this season) intrigues me.

 

Yea I think that's a safe floor. Him and Gesicki definitely have the biggest upside of the late round guys.

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5 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yea I think that's a safe floor. Him and Gesicki definitely have the biggest upside of the late round guys.

I’d also add that Smith is currently practicing regularly with Tannehill down in south Florida - can’t hurt his chances of making a greater impact this season.

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I really like him as a Andrews type late round pick guy.

If you are going to pick your TE with one of the last picks there’s really no point in going for anything but upside IMO. This is a high upside pick. If he flops drop him and stream the position. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

When they review the film of last season, they absolutely have to be salivating at the idea of getting Jonnu more feature routes/manufactured looks.

2019 He had the MOST Broken Tackles per touch among players with 30+ touches.

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1 hour ago, ST. STEVEN said:

When they review the film of last season, they absolutely have to be salivating at the idea of getting Jonnu more feature routes/manufactured looks.

2019 He had the MOST Broken Tackles per touch among players with 30+ touches.

Third overall among TEs with 14 - but the point stands.

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15 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Bill B literally said he doesn't think there is a better PLAYER in the league after the catch. That's all I needed to hear.

Leaving aside his track record on drafting receivers, I implicitly trust that judgment.  And he’s a SPARQ freak to boot.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Leaving aside his track record on drafting receivers, I implicitly trust that judgment.  And he’s a SPARQ freak to boot.

 

I would say his track record on assessing TE talent is pretty damn good.

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3 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

I would say his track record on assessing TE talent is pretty damn good.

In the non-murdering area, yes.

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22 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Leaving aside his track record on drafting receivers, I implicitly trust that judgment.  And he’s a SPARQ freak to boot.

 

How's his track record drafting TEs?

 

Edit- posted before reading. 

 

Gronk, Hernandez, Hollister, I think bill b knows TE talent.

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