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Jonnu Smith 2020 Outlook

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Every known (and unknown) force in the universe is aligned for a breakout this year.

I’ll say it, his stat line will not be much different than AJ Brown’s by seasons end.


Do yourselves and get this man on your rosters. 

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3 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Every known (and unknown) force in the universe is aligned for a breakout this year.

I’ll say it, his stat line will not be much different than AJ Brown’s by seasons end.


Do yourselves and get this man on your rosters. 

Find yourself the “Bold Predictions” thread, young man

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4 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Every known (and unknown) force in the universe is aligned for a breakout this year.

I’ll say it, his stat line will not be much different than AJ Brown’s by seasons end.


Do yourselves and get this man on your rosters. 

 

If Brown busts and has a 60-900-5 line, Jonnu will be hard pressed to match that.

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55 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

If Brown busts and has a 60-900-5 line, Jonnu will be hard pressed to match that.


This is exactly the range I expect Jonnu to finish ... he is an incredible talent and finally going to be getting a huge snap/target share

 

(Not a knock on Brown, love him too) 

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30 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


This is exactly the range I expect Jonnu to finish ... he is an incredible talent and finally going to be getting a huge snap/target share

 

(Not a knock on Brown, love him too) 

Would have to practically double his target share from last year to have a reasonable shot at 60 receptions.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Would have to practically double his target share from last year to have a reasonable shot at 60 receptions.


5 targets a game is well within reach, he averaged slightly over 4 targets / game after Walker went down last year 


Doesn’t hurt that Tannehill and Smith have been working out together on a weekly basis. 
 

No reason he won’t see 80-90 targets this year. Or are people still pretending Corey Davis is gonna be a thing? 
 

Ask Bill Belichek what he thinks of this guy. I’m not the only one who sees when he touches the ball, very good things tend to happen. 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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5 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


5 targets a game is well within reach, he averaged slightly over 4 targets / game after Walker went down last year 


Doesn’t hurt that Tannehill and Smith have been working out together on a weekly basis. 
 

No reason he won’t see 80-90 targets this year. Or are people still pretending Corey Davis is gonna be a thing? 

He actually averaged 3.6 targets/game if we include Week 7, in which Walker barely saw the field.

Even extrapolated across a full season, and assuming he’s absorbing all of Walker’s vacated targets, that doesn’t even amount to 60 targets all season.  Some drastic alteration of scheme would need to happen to reasonably project 60 receptions to a Titans TE next season.

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29 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He actually averaged 3.6 targets/game if we include Week 7, in which Walker barely saw the field.

Even extrapolated across a full season, and assuming he’s absorbing all of Walker’s vacated targets, that doesn’t even amount to 60 targets all season.  Some drastic alteration of scheme would need to happen to reasonably project 60 receptions to a Titans TE next season.

 

Don't disagree with this, but think the idea is buying a (relatively speaking) upward arrow based on continued rapport built with Tannehill and lack of other receiving options outside of AJB and ... Adam Humphries?  He's basically free as it pertains to acquisition cost, that sort of thing.

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21 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He actually averaged 3.6 targets/game if we include Week 7, in which Walker barely saw the field.

Even extrapolated across a full season, and assuming he’s absorbing all of Walker’s vacated targets, that doesn’t even amount to 60 targets all season.  Some drastic alteration of scheme would need to happen to reasonably project 60 receptions to a Titans TE next season.


33 targets in 8 games without Walker, but exclude whatever fits your argument. That’s a 66 target pace for a season. If nothing changes, he’s got around a 50 catch floor based on his career catch % ... right around “low end TE1” territory. That’s if absolutely nothing changes. (Things have changed). Oh, he’s also flashed the ability to rip off huge gains/TDs despite his limited opportunities. 
 

Smith is an amazing talent, in a contract year, working out with the QB every week, and 1 or the brightest minds to ever be associated with the sport agrees with me on Smith’s skill set. 
 

Feel free to take another tight end and have a lovely evening.

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10 minutes ago, Maroney's Bolgna said:

 

Don't disagree with this, but think the idea is buying a (relatively speaking) upward arrow based on continued rapport built with Tannehill and lack of other receiving options outside of AJB and ... Adam Humphries?  He's basically free as it pertains to acquisition cost, that sort of thing.


This. The cost is nothing, the reward is potential league winning / 2020’s Darren Waller.

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1 hour ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


33 targets in 8 games without Walker, but exclude whatever fits your argument. That’s a 66 target pace for a season. If nothing changes, he’s got around a 50 catch floor based on his career catch % ... right around “low end TE1” territory. That’s if absolutely nothing changes. (Things have changed). Oh, he’s also flashed the ability to rip off huge gains/TDs despite his limited opportunities. 
 

Smith is an amazing talent, in a contract year, working out with the QB every week, and 1 or the brightest minds to ever be associated with the sport agrees with me on Smith’s skill set. 
 

Feel free to take another tight end and have a lovely evening.

You as well!  One of the kindest things anyone’s wished me all day, in fact!
 

I excluded a Week 7 game in which Walker played all of 5 offensive snaps.  Mea culpa.

I made no comment on his ability to finish as a low-end TE1 or his YAC ability - why you mentioned these in response to my comment is unclear.

In any event, I stand by what I said: given the targets/game pace to the primary TE of the Titans under Vrabel/Smith,  the scheme would need to change drastically to accommodate your projection of 60 receptions.

 

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

You as well!  One of the kindest things anyone’s wished me all day, in fact!
 

I excluded a Week 7 game in which Walker played all of 5 offensive snaps.  Mea culpa.

I made no comment on his ability to finish as a low-end TE1 or his YAC ability - why you mentioned these in response to my comment is unclear.

In any event, I stand by what I said: given the targets/game pace to the primary TE of the Titans under Vrabel/Smith,  the scheme would need to change drastically to accommodate your projection of 60 receptions.

 


They are drastically changing the scheme. That’s the point. The OC (former TE coach) has explicitly said the offense/passing game needs to be more explosive.

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3 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


They are drastically changing the scheme. That’s the point. The OC (former TE coach) has explicitly said the offense/passing game needs to be more explosive.

Citation?  It’s all well and good for a coach to state he would like a more “explosive” offense, but point me to where Arthur Smith said anything about incorporating Jonnu more extensively as a pass-catcher, or anything about overhauling the scheme towards a pass-centric offense not focused on Henry as the centerpiece?

Coach-speak in the off-season is a beautiful thing, but I really don’t see this scheme that worked so well last year changing dramatically in 2020.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Citation?  It’s all well and good for a coach to state he would like a more “explosive” offense, but point me to where Arthur Smith said anything about incorporating Jonnu more extensively as a pass-catcher, or anything about overhauling the scheme towards a pass-centric offense not focused on Henry as the centerpiece?

Coach-speak in the off-season is a beautiful thing, but I really don’t see this scheme that worked so well last year changing dramatically in 2020.

 

Google “Arthur Smith 2020” . I honestly couldn’t care less if you’re sold on Jonnu ... he’s awesome, he’s going to be used - a lot. 

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JonnuSmithsCleats doing some good work in here.

 

Belichick said he might be one of the best run after the catch TEs in the NFL.

 

I sure hope so, it would please the leader of the Jonnu Smith fan club.

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I like Jonnu a lot but nah--he isn't finishing anywhere near Brown

If the Titans have a small uptick in volume like I expect: Jonnu has a decent chance to be a low TE1 but Brown will be looking at low WR1

Totally different players

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24 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

Google “Arthur Smith 2020” . I honestly couldn’t care less if you’re sold on Jonnu ... he’s awesome, he’s going to be used - a lot. 

Ok - my comment was directed more towards the rest of my fellow forum members who might have been misled into believing 60 receptions was a realistic projection.  I know he’s awesome - if you don’t believe me, look upthread to see how I feel about him.  But that volume projection looks more like a ceiling than a median.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, BMcP said:

Ok - my comment was directed more towards the rest of my fellow forum members who might have been misled into believing 60 receptions was a realistic projection.  I know he’s awesome - if you don’t believe me, look upthread to see how I feel about him.  But that volume projection looks more like a ceiling than a median.


Again, if absolutely nothing changes (it has, but let’s pretend it hasn’t), the games without Walker + his career catch % put him right around 50-55 receptions, the threshold for a “low end TE1” last year. 

In short, his floor is going to be a TE1 for dirt cheap ... while the upside is undeniable. 

An absolute no brainer selection at his current price. Plain and simple. 

Titans targeted TEs 108 times last year, 24% of their pass attempts. Walker and Jonnu combined for 70% of TE targets. I think it’s fair to assume Smith will soak up those targets left after Walker. Jonnu managed 45 targets despite a very limited roll for half a season in a run first offense with a new QB (the same QB he’s been working out with 1:1 all offseason.

His floor, based on this data and nothing whatsoever changing in the offense:

54 receptions, 630 yards. 6 TDs. 

This would rank him 11th in receptions, 10th in yards, and tied for 4th among TEs last year regarding TDs. 

Reminder: this data is closer to his floor than his ceiling, based on TE target share, career yards/reception, etc. 

Summary: there is absolutely no reason to not take this guy at his price. 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Not super high on this guy but have him in a group of about 6 TEs in that lower tier who I think possibly could breakout and aiming to get 2 of them in most redraft leagues. 
 

Regarding Jonnu just still feel his breakout is somewhat capped because this offence runs primarily through Derrick Henry and secondly A.J. Brown. 

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4 hours ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


Again, if absolutely nothing changes (it has, but let’s pretend it hasn’t), the games without Walker + his career catch % put him right around 50-55 receptions, the threshold for a “low end TE1” last year....

Games w/o Walker (Gms. 7-16): 3.6 targets/game

2019 Catch %: 80% (rounded up)

3.6 x 16 x .80 = 46 receptions

 

I just wanted to show my work so that others might draw their own conclusions based on the scenario you proposed above.

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27 minutes ago, Black_Panther said:

Not super high on this guy but have him in a group of about 6 TEs in that lower tier who I think possibly could breakout and aiming to get 2 of them in most redraft leagues. 
 

Regarding Jonnu just still feel his breakout is somewhat capped because this offence runs primarily through Derrick Henry and secondly A.J. Brown. 

 

Last year. 

“We have to evolve (as an offense)...We don't want to get stale. We need to improve.”

"“I’ve got a long way to go (as an offensive coordinator)... Every season you start over. We’ve got to make more improvement and certainly I’m aware of that."

 “We’ll see how the season evolves for (Henry), see what happens with the other running back spot, whoever emerges or how our guys divvy up the carries ... We’ve got a lot of explosive guys on our offense, and I’ve got to do a good job of finding ways to make sure different guys get touches, and that will naturally spread out... But if we’ve got a lot of guys doing it and we can win games and more guys are touching the ball, it’ll be better off for us as a team and as an offense. I think it’ll naturally work itself out as we build up. We want to be improving and peaking as the season goes along.”

Above are all quotes from the offensive coordinator (Jonnu Smith's former TE coach). 

Here's a quote from Bill Belichick regarding Jonnu Smith:

“He’s just a really good tight end... Can do a lot of things. Blocks well. Runs well. Is a good receiver. Played him at tailback, he looked pretty good back there. He’s a very athletic player. Hard to tackle. Catches the ball well ... He's great after the catch, probably the best in the league. I mean, I can’t imagine anyone better than him after the catch.”

Regarding the ongoing weekly workouts with his QB:

"... I’m only learning him more and he’s only learning me more, so I’m sure it will be a great advantage ... Ryan is making me better, I’m making him better, and we’re just building that chemistry ... I’m just trying to perfect that. ... We’ve been able to maximize the most of our opportunity. I love doing it and I love working with him."

 

Move along, nothing to see here. 

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Games w/o Walker (Gms. 7-16): 3.6 targets/game

2019 Catch %: 80% (rounded up)

3.6 x 16 x .80 = 46 receptions

 

I just wanted to show my work so that others might draw their own conclusions based on the scenario you proposed above.

 

don't forget to include the 3 rushing attempts (yes, rushing) for 68 yards ... with those target numbers skewed by the fact he received 0 targets in 2 blowout wins (ironically 2 of the games he received a carry). 

it's been real. Jonnu's awesome, I dont think he'll crack top 5 due to this still being a defense/run first team ... but there aren't 10 TEs I would rather have this year and he's being drafted where kickers go. 

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4 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

 

don't forget to include the 3 rushing attempts (yes, rushing) for 68 yards ... with those target numbers skewed by the fact he received 0 targets in 2 blowout wins (ironically 2 of the games he received a carry). 

it's been real. Jonnu's awesome, I dont think he'll crack top 5 due to this still being a defense/run first team ... but there aren't 10 TEs I would rather have this year and he's being drafted where kickers go. 

Why would I include rushing attempts in a calculation of his 2020 projected targets?!

You can’t just cherry-pick certain games out of the equation - do you not expect them to ever be leading comfortably in a game again this season?

It’s clear that you’re high on the guy - and rightfully so - but it’s equally clear that you cannot accept the fact that your projection of 60 receptions as a floor for him in 2020 was mistaken based on the 2019 scheme.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Why would I include rushing attempts in a calculation of his 2020 projected targets?!

You can’t just cherry-pick certain games out of the equation - do you not expect them to ever be leading comfortably in a game again this season?

It’s clear that you’re high on the guy - and rightfully so - but it’s equally clear that you cannot accept the fact that your projection of 60 receptions as a floor for him in 2020 was mistaken based on the 2019 scheme.


1. those yards count, on top of the fact they show he’s athletic enough to rip off 50+ yard pitches from the backfield 

2. I cherry picked nothing, I simply pointed out those target numbers were skewed by 2 “0s” in games they blew their opponent out of the water and didn’t need to throw the ball. You also didn’t account for the fact targets that went to Walker are now going somewhere ... and it’s likely Jonnu.

3. The 2019 scheme is changing, the guy calling the plays knows it needs to. 
 


Good luck this year. 

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, BMcP said:

He actually averaged 3.6 targets/game if we include Week 7, in which Walker barely saw the field.

Even extrapolated across a full season, and assuming he’s absorbing all of Walker’s vacated targets, that doesn’t even amount to 60 targets all season.  Some drastic alteration of scheme would need to happen to reasonably project 60 receptions to a Titans TE next season.


walker and Jonnu combined for 75 targets last year. 
 

Jonnu’s career catch percentage is 70% of targets. If nothing whatsoever changes about the offense, that puts him in the 50-55 receptions / low end TE1 territory already. 
 

Try analyzing data with context, rather than a 2 minute google quest to prove someone wrong.
 

He needs 85 targets to reach the 60 catch floor. 85 targets out of 448 passing attempts (again, assuming nothing changes ... despite everything pointing to a more balanced attack) is well within reach.

Thats’s a 19% target share. Considering they targeted TEs on 24% of their attempts last year, clearly a number well within reach. 
 

Again, this is the floor based on nothing whatsoever changing in terms of play calling (which the actual guy calling the plays says needs to change, but that’s another post.)

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast

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