thebadferret

Saquon Barkley 2020 Outlook

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Nothing since May on Barkley? Really?

So hard to call. Everyone expected greatness last year but between injuries and a pathetic OL he was easily the most disappointing player of the year. It's reasonable to expect a rebound but as a former owner I'm in the fool me once camp. 

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4 minutes ago, bomont said:

Nothing since May on Barkley? Really?

So hard to call. Everyone expected greatness last year but between injuries and a pathetic OL he was easily the most disappointing player of the year. It's reasonable to expect a rebound but as a former owner I'm in the fool me once camp. 

 

Wait ...most disappointing player of the year? I get he didnt explode like his rookie season but bro despite his injury he still managed 1400 total yards and 8 TDs...I mean to pull that off still with the injury he faced and that team is a feat. I dont know how he could've been considered the most disappointing player. In any case my first draft was today and I was able to draft him, I'm pumped beyond belief to have him again 

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You obviously didn't own him or pay much attention to him last year and just glanced at some stats.  He was a MASSIVE disappointment. Week after week he killed my team and I know I have a lot of company. His stats were padded towards the end of the year with a few meaningless games. I'm not saying it's his fault at all but from FF perspective it doesn't matter. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, bomont said:

You obviously didn't own him or pay much attention to him last year and just glanced at some stats.  He was a MASSIVE disappointment. Week after week he killed my team and I know I have a lot of company. His stats were padded towards the end of the year with a few meaningless games. I'm not saying it's his fault at all but from FF perspective it doesn't matter. 

I can happily dig up my team to show you I had him, I've had him since his start on teams . I had him and mahomes and thought I'd crush the league, but yes he was disappointing from the previous years output ...but in a bang up year he still had a decent stat showing. My point is as long as he stays healthy he has potential to absolutely crush a year . Itll be business as usual this year 

Edited by Savatage79

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I think it's foolish to write-off a player just because he was bad for you the year before...but I get it...it's enough to weigh you to another player in a close situation in this emotional game we play.

Saquon had a high-ankle sprain this year...same with Kamara. Those lingered for half the season for both of them and really sapped their elite playmaking. I expect both to be right there in the elite ranks again this year. 

The Giants kind of suck, but Saquon is an incredible talent, and they will have so many legit passing game threats that it should open things up for him more. Plus, new coaching staff and 2nd year of Jones should be helpful.

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Barkley left Week 3 early due to injury, missed 3 games on the season, and still finished as the RB10.  No way he was "the most disappointing player" last season.  He had a stretch from Weeks 9-14 where he was a bit underwhelming I'll give you that.  But he wasn't sinking your team - RB23, RB35, RB29, RB22, and RB32.  So I get it, you're not happy those weeks when Barkley is supposed to be a stud, but again this was coming back early from a high ankle sprain, which is very tough for RBs.  And he was still at least giving you RB2/FLEX level production.  Not like he was finishing in the 40s and 50s.  

If Barkley didn't get hurt, I guarantee he would have been a top tier elite RB last season.  No reason to write him off this season.  If he gets nicked up again, then maybe we start looking at injuries as a negative for him, but up until now he's sustained one injury so no reason to say he's injury prone yet.  

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5 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

 

If Barkley didn't get hurt, 

That's where the disappointment comes from. IF.

Taking him #1 and watching CMC do his thing was hard.

Who was a bigger disappointment  (not bust per say)

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13 minutes ago, itslarry said:

That's where the disappointment comes from. IF.

Taking him #1 and watching CMC do his thing was hard.

Who was a bigger disappointment  (not bust per say)

Kamara comes to mind.  James Conner.  Leveon Bell.  All 3 of these guys were drafted pretty high last year - obviously not as high as Barkley - but again at least Barkley still gave you a top 10 season.  Kamara was RB13, Bell was RB19 and Conner was RB32.  

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From week 12-16 Barkley was the second leading scorer in fantasy but he was THE MOST DISSAPOINTING PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE NFL. You know, more dissapointing than guys like Conner and Bell. More dissapointing than David Johnson... Talk about massive over exaggeration

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People who probably hurt your team more than Saquon if you drafted them last year:

 

- James Conner (1st round)

- LeVeon Bell (1st round)

- David Johnson (1st round)

- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2nd round)

- Odell Beckham Jr (2nd round)

- Todd Gurley (2nd round)

- Joe Mixon (2nd round)

- Antonio Brown (2nd round)

- Damien Williams (3rd round)

- Kerryon Johnson (3rd round)

- Devonta Freeman (3rd round)

 

There's a few more that are borderline and probably worse than drafting Saquon in the first 3 rounds, but I left it to the ones that were definitively worse.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

From week 12-16 Barkley was the second leading scorer in fantasy but he was THE MOST DISSAPOINTING PLAYER IN THE ENTIRE NFL. You know, more dissapointing than guys like Conner and Bell. More dissapointing than David Johnson... Talk about massive over exaggeration

lol - talk about massive myopia. Thanks for reminding us that leagues only count scoring in weeks 12-16. Try looking at the other weeks. How was he then? Oh I forgot they don't count.

Barkley was the #1 overall pick in a LOT of leagues and never worse than 2d or 3d in any league with a clue. Yet most weeks for whatever reason he was a major letdown. FYI that factors into disappointment; it's not just about how many pts he scored vs others. And I'm not talking about others anyway, so no idea why you're playing the comparison to other players game. I just said he was a massive disappointment. Anyone wants to disagree with that water is wet statement, have fun. You and others also continue to ignore how most of his good weeks were only at the end when he had already doomed many teams'  seasons so it didn't matter. 

He's a great talent, I would not be surprised if he rebounded in a big way, but this is a fool me once thing for me.

Of course since I'm avoiding him that increases his chances exponentially :lol:

 

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3 hours ago, bomont said:

lol - talk about massive myopia. Thanks for reminding us that leagues only count scoring in weeks 12-16. Try looking at the other weeks. How was he then? Oh I forgot they don't count.

Barkley was the #1 overall pick in a LOT of leagues and never worse than 2d or 3d in any league with a clue. Yet most weeks for whatever reason he was a major letdown. FYI that factors into disappointment; it's not just about how many pts he scored vs others. And I'm not talking about others anyway, so no idea why you're playing the comparison to other players game. I just said he was a massive disappointment. Anyone wants to disagree with that water is wet statement, have fun. You and others also continue to ignore how most of his good weeks were only at the end when he had already doomed many teams'  seasons so it didn't matter. 

He's a great talent, I would not be surprised if he rebounded in a big way, but this is a fool me once thing for me.

Of course since I'm avoiding him that increases his chances exponentially :lol:

 

That’s great. You didn’t say he was underwhelming you said he was the MOST disappointing player in the NFL. That’s just wrong and a dumb take.

He finished 10th overall including being the 2nd best player in fantasy during the playoff stretch.

Take Conner for instance who only went a few picks later. He finished 35th. David Johnson was also a first round pick and finished 37th. Both were absolutely useless during the fantasy playoffs. I’m sorry but Barkley EASILY being the MOST disappointing? Just wrong. Absurd and wrong. No other way to put it more plainly. 

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In their careers,

CMC: 113 total yards per game ... Saquon Barkley: 119 total yards per game

Career 20+ yard runs: Barkley (24), CMC (13) ... the saddest part is that CMC had 145 more rushing attempts. Barkley also has 2 more 40+ yard runs, despite 1 year and 145 less rushing attempts less to do so. 

Career fumbles: Barkley (0), CMC (4) 

"BUT CMC IS SO MUCH MORE DYNAMIC IN THE PASSING GAME" ... 

Yards per reception: 8.3 vs 8.1 

Number of receptions that have gone over 40+ yards: Barkley (4), CMC (0) ... the saddest part? You guessed it, CMC had less "big plays" despite over 2x as many total receptions. 

If we combine 20+ and 40+ as "big plays", 10.5% of Barkley's receptions qualify vs 8.3% of CMC's receptions. 

Size: Barkley, by 30 pounds 

Athleticism: Barkley has a 99th percentile speed score (CMC, 66th percentile) with 96th percentile burst (CMC 79th percentile) and bench press (1st percentile)  ... 

Cliff notes version: Saquon Barkley is significantly bigger, significantly more athletic, offers significantly more "big play" ability while also offering nearly identical per reception production ... oh and he fumbles less and the team just drafted a stud SEC Offensive Tackle. 

The only reason this is even a discussion is because of the absurd volume that CMC needs/gets to keep up. You play in PPR, I understand preferring CMC ... standard/.5 PPR ... it's a lot closer than the recency bias brigade wants to admit. 

There's also the fact that CMC is a smurf coming off 400+ touches and due for a huge regression in per touch production... but that's for another time. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

In their careers,

CMC: 113 total yards per game ... Saquon Barkley: 119 total yards per game

Career 20+ yard runs: Barkley (24), CMC (13) ... the saddest part is that CMC had 145 more rushing attempts. Barkley also has 2 more 40+ yard runs, despite 1 year and 145 less rushing attempts less to do so. 

Career fumbles: Barkley (0), CMC (4) 

"BUT CMC IS SO MUCH MORE DYNAMIC IN THE PASSING GAME" ... 

Yards per reception: 8.3 vs 8.1 

Number of receptions that have gone over 40+ yards: Barkley (4), CMC (0) ... the saddest part? You guessed it, CMC had less "big plays" despite over 2x as many total receptions. 

If we combine 20+ and 40+ as "big plays", 10.5% of Barkley's receptions qualify vs 8.3% of CMC's receptions. 

Size: Barkley, by 30 pounds 

Athleticism: Barkley has a 99th percentile speed score (CMC, 66th percentile) with 96th percentile burst (CMC 79th percentile) and bench press (1st percentile)  ... 

Cliff notes version: Saquon Barkley is significantly bigger, significantly more athletic, offers significantly more "big play" ability while also offering nearly identical per reception production ... oh and he fumbles less and the team just drafted a stud SEC Offensive Tackle. 

The only reason this is even a discussion is because of the absurd volume that CMC needs/gets to keep up. You play in PPR, I understand preferring CMC ... standard/.5 PPR ... it's a lot closer than the recency bias brigade wants to admit. 

There's also the fact that CMC is a smurf coming off 400+ touches and due for a huge regression in per touch production... but that's for another time. 


 

This is DHC’s cue to come list off some stats on why Derrick Henry is better than both. 

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21 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

In their careers,

CMC: 113 total yards per game ... Saquon Barkley: 119 total yards per game

Career 20+ yard runs: Barkley (24), CMC (13) ... the saddest part is that CMC had 145 more rushing attempts. Barkley also has 2 more 40+ yard runs, despite 1 year and 145 less rushing attempts less to do so. 

Career fumbles: Barkley (0), CMC (4) 

"BUT CMC IS SO MUCH MORE DYNAMIC IN THE PASSING GAME" ... 

Yards per reception: 8.3 vs 8.1 

Number of receptions that have gone over 40+ yards: Barkley (4), CMC (0) ... the saddest part? You guessed it, CMC had less "big plays" despite over 2x as many total receptions. 

If we combine 20+ and 40+ as "big plays", 10.5% of Barkley's receptions qualify vs 8.3% of CMC's receptions. 

Size: Barkley, by 30 pounds 

Athleticism: Barkley has a 99th percentile speed score (CMC, 66th percentile) with 96th percentile burst (CMC 79th percentile) and bench press (1st percentile)  ... 

Cliff notes version: Saquon Barkley is significantly bigger, significantly more athletic, offers significantly more "big play" ability while also offering nearly identical per reception production ... oh and he fumbles less and the team just drafted a stud SEC Offensive Tackle. 

The only reason this is even a discussion is because of the absurd volume that CMC needs/gets to keep up. You play in PPR, I understand preferring CMC ... standard/.5 PPR ... it's a lot closer than the recency bias brigade wants to admit. 

There's also the fact that CMC is a smurf coming off 400+ touches and due for a huge regression in per touch production... but that's for another time. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

🤔

Tell me those numbers again excluding McCaffrey’s 2017 rookie season. The kid was splitting carries with Jonathon Stewart .... Barkley however got a full workload his 2018 rookie year. 

irl Saquon is the best RB in the league & most talented . Better than Zeke, Henry, Kamara etc ...

But in fantasy I rather have the white buffalo ! aka RunCMC

 

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cybernetic you make some good points vs cmc. I just see the game logs last year and barkley was useful weeks 1 2 15 and 16.

cmac had 2 dud games all year that i can recall. Barkley might have been great weeks 15 and 16 but he sure as hell was not the reason you got to the playoffs as he was not a top 10 fantasy rb. He certainly was not the disaster that leveon or david johnson was last year and kamara also was a letdown last year at his cost also.

Still for me cmc is the safter pick.IF cmc breaks down oh well. I saw no sign of cmc breaking down last year or getting injured. 

Remind me did saquon play 16 games last year? How did he look vs the jets ypc? 

 

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25 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

🤔

Tell me those numbers again excluding McCaffrey’s 2017 rookie season. The kid was splitting carries with Jonathon Stewart .... Barkley however got a full workload his 2018 rookie year. 

irl Saquon is the best RB in the league & most talented . Better than Zeke, Henry, Kamara etc ...

But in fantasy I rather have the white buffalo ! aka RunCMC

 


clever, but it’s exactly why I converted data to rate (yards per game, yards per reception, etc.) to account for exactly this

 

long story short, Barkley has better PER GAME production and more big play ability (which is even more impressive when you account for the fact CMC has significantly more total touches/opportunities)

I don’t care who you take, just prefer objective data. Which shows Barkley is not only significantly bigger, more talented, and more explosive ... hes actually been more productive on a per game basis.

 

Good night.

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5 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

cybernetic you make some good points vs cmc. I just see the game logs last year and barkley was useful weeks 1 2 15 and 16.

cmac had 2 dud games all year that i can recall. Barkley might have been great weeks 15 and 16 but he sure as hell was not the reason you got to the playoffs as he was not a top 10 fantasy rb. He certainly was not the disaster that leveon or david johnson was last year and kamara also was a letdown last year at his cost also.

Still for me cmc is the safter pick.IF cmc breaks down oh well. I saw no sign of cmc breaking down last year or getting injured. 

Remind me did saquon play 16 games last year? How did he look vs the jets ypc? 

 


Recency bias is fun. I did make some good points, feel free to do the same.
 

Barkley is a bigger, better, more explosive player with the ball in his hands ... and slightly more productive on a per game basis ... that’s all I said (and proved with objective data). 
 

They are both very good. Take who you want and have a lovely evening. 

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Anyway back to Barkley....

  

1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

That’s great. You didn’t say he was underwhelming you said he was the MOST disappointing player in the NFL. That’s just wrong and a dumb take.

He finished 10th overall including being the 2nd best player in fantasy during the playoff stretch.

Take Conner for instance who only went a few picks later. He finished 35th. David Johnson was also a first round pick and finished 37th. Both were absolutely useless during the fantasy playoffs. I’m sorry but Barkley EASILY being the MOST disappointing? Just wrong. Absurd and wrong. No other way to put it more plainly. 

You know what, you're right, you can make a case for others - esp if you just go by season totals, which again is misleading. You keep harping on the 10th overall stat and ignore what a large percentage of that was in the last few weeks long after he had killed many teams' playoff hopes or was benched for obvious reasons when he went off because most of the year he was doing jack. If not the most disappointing, he was still a huge (huge) disappointment.

 

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Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:


clever, but it’s exactly why I converted data to rate (yards per game, yards per reception, etc.) to account for exactly this

 

long story short, Barkley has better PER GAME production and more big play ability (which is even more impressive when you account for the fact CMC has significantly more total touches/opportunities)

I don’t care who you take, just prefer objective data. Which shows Barkley is not only significantly bigger, more talented, and more explosive ... hes actually been more productive on a per game basis.

 

Good night.

 

It still effects his PER GAME stats ... again take away his 2017 numbers, then compare. Quite simple actually. McCaffrey had a hard time getting into rhythm his rookie season. He kept getting pulled at the most inopportune time, for jag Stewart. Objective data you say ? please ... more like cherry picked data. 

CMC Yards Per Carry 

2017:  3.7 

2018:  5.0

2019:  4.8 

 

And btw it’s still daytime here in LA ..

Edited by RunCMC

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

It still effects his PER GAME stats ... again take away his 2017 numbers, then compare. Quite simple actually. McCaffrey had a hard time getting into rhythm his rookie season. He kept getting pulled at the most inopportune time, for jag Stewart. Objective data you say ? please ... more like cherry picked data. 

CMC Yards Per Carry 

2017:  3.7 

2018:  5.0

2019:  4.8 

 

And btw it’s still daytime here in LA ..

 

CMC last 2 season (if all my calculations are correct)

77.6 rush yards per game
58.5 rec yards per game

136 total ypg and 1 TD per game with 6.96 catches per game
 

total of 23 fantasy ppg in half ppr.

saquon averages 19.2 fantasy ppg in half ppr 

saquon may be bigger faster stronger and have more long runs and more big plays and more broken tackles and hurdle more defenders and look better doing it and all off less touches but all we care about at the end of the day his the fantasy points and CMC is king in that category. I know saquon was hurt and slowed down but that only adds to CMCs value imo since he handles a bigger load and been healthier. Who knows how the new coaching staff and payday will affect his use and efforts. 

Edited by Stonej14
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18 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

CMC last 2 season (if all my calculations are correct)

77.6 rush yards per game
58.5 rec yards per game

136 total ypg and 1 TD per game with 6.96 catches per game
 

total of 23 fantasy ppg in half ppr.

saquon averages 19.2 fantasy ppg in half ppr 

saquon may be bigger faster stronger and have more long runs and more big plays and more broken tackles and hurdle more defenders and look better doing it and all off less touches but all we care about at the end of the day his the fantasy points and CMC is king in that category. I know saquon was hurt and slowed down but that only adds to CMCs value imo since he handles a bigger load and been healthier. Who knows how the new coaching staff and payday will affect his use and efforts. 

 

Thanks brodie, that should put the ghost of christmas past to bed. I reiterate Saquon is the best back in the NFL, but fantasy he’s going exactly where he should be ... #2 overall.  

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1 minute ago, RunCMC said:

 

Thanks brodie, that should put the ghost of christmas past to bed. I reiterate Saquon is the best back in the NFL, but fantasy he’s going exactly where he should be ... #2 overall.  

Yeah fantasy vs real life is a different discussion. I still don’t know who should go first but CMC seems to be the most durable back I’ve seen since the dudes in the 2000s. That alone has unprecedented value. 

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3 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah fantasy vs real life is a different discussion. I still don’t know who should go first but CMC seems to be the most durable back I’ve seen since the dudes in the 2000s. That alone has unprecedented value. 


Ya the guy is a work horse for sure. He’s only been used heavy for 2 seasons tho. And he had a significant injury in college so I guess the jury is still out on if he is the next iron man like LT or emmitt smith.

In redrafts I’d take CMC 1st in just about every format possible. In auction I think I’d lean saquon to save a few dollars and get similar production. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yeah fantasy vs real life is a different discussion. I still don’t know who should go first but CMC seems to be the most durable back I’ve seen since the dudes in the 2000s. That alone has unprecedented value. 

 

Of course availability is everything, an aspect we tend to overlook quite often actually. It’s funny since he entered the league the naysayers with their propaganda. “He’s too small” / “Can’t handle a full workload” / “He’s too white” /  “Can’t run in between the tackles”  etc etc .. but we only hear 🦗’s now. 

 

P.S  Sorry for the derailment boys, heading back to my thread now. 

Edited by RunCMC

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