Boudewijn

Michael Thomas 2020 Outlook

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Michael Thomas. Four seasons, improved each season, missed only one game; signed a massive contract and then improved again. Could any receiver do any better?Michael Thomas contract: Saints WR signs record five-year, $100M deal

The real question is of course: could he repeat what he did last year? Should we take this guy in the top-5?

Only 10 WRs in the past 20 years got over 1600 yards; only 2 of those managed to repeat that the next year (AB and Calvin Johnson); Julio Jones did it with a gap year in between.Randy Moss (who also had his 1600+ season at age 26) never repeated that feat. If we extend the search a bit further (30 years, 1400+ yards) we get a slightly longer list but definitely a list of greats:

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So I think MT is on counrse to be a legend - but we shouldn't be too surprised if his 2020 season is closer to 1400 yards, and let's face it, in real football terms football that would still be awesome.

 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Should we take this guy in the top-5?

 

After the top 3-4 running backs are off the board, I can't think of anyone else better to take. 

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If I’m 3rd overall I’m taking him regardless of league format.

Dude is the safest pick in fantasy I’ve seen in a long time.

- Never misses games

- Pretty much a guarantee for at least 100 catches and 1200 yards with a ceiling even higher than last year if he can get more TDs

- Best backup QB in the NFL so even if Brees misses time he will be fine

Sure he doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as guys like Cook and Kamara simply due to being a WR but because he is such a safe pick I’ll take him without hesitation at 3.

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10 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Best WR in football, real life and fantasy.

 

Consistently consistent


And my favorite player in the league, hands down. He also went to Taft High School in L.A. Very humble , total opposite of a starboy wideout like Odell. Absolute STUD 

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I'm also on board with third overall.   I'm pessimistic about a lot of the top receivers in 2020 except for Thomas, so there's more separation for me between WR1 and 2 on my rankings.   He just had his best season and is hitting his prime in a stable offense.  I also feel great about overall RB depth.  If I can't get CMC or Barkley, i'm comfortable holding until late 2nd and i think i'll find someone there i can live with

Naturally its reasonable to think he can't put up the same stats again, but even 90% of what he did last year is enough points to beat all but a handful of WR's outputs in the last half decade.  Good enough.  

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10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I'm also on board with third overall.   I'm pessimistic about a lot of the top receivers in 2020 except for Thomas, so there's more separation for me between WR1 and 2 on my rankings.   He just had his best season and is hitting his prime in a stable offense.  I also feel great about overall RB depth.  If I can't get CMC or Barkley, i'm comfortable holding until late 2nd and i think i'll find someone there i can live with

Naturally its reasonable to think he can't put up the same stats again, but even 90% of what he did last year is enough points to beat all but a handful of WR's outputs in the last half decade.  Good enough.  

This years WR pool looks awful to me. I went on FFC to look at ADP and it made me want to throw up.

Guys like Samuel, Gallup, Chark, Boyd, and Woods are your options in the 4th round. I wouldn't touch any of those with a 10 foot poll at that ADP. Last year you had guys like Godwin, Kupp, Lockett, Diggs, and Cooper around that range. Made it very good to go RB/RB. This year is a bit different. I do like DK and Hilton around that range but that's really it. 

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I share that, mostly.  I'm even really struggling with the guys above them.   Not into Hopkins or Adams as first rounders, and Evans and Godwin went from the least efficient QB in the league to one of the best.   

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Just now, BrianM said:

I share that, mostly.  I'm even really struggling with the guys above them.   Not into Hopkins or Adams as first rounders, and Evans and Godwin went from the least efficient QB in the league to one of the best.   

not when it comes to throwing the long ball. Winston has his faults, but lack of fantasy production was not one of them

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The only one that gave him a run for the best was Antonio Brown and that was during MT's rookie year,  M Thomas has no peers.

Elite and in his prime.

 

I have him ranked number 2 overall, behind only CMC.  ( yes ahead of Barkley)

 

He may not repeat the exact same performance of last year, but he will likely be the NO 1 receiver by the end of the year barring injury.     

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6 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I share that, mostly.  I'm even really struggling with the guys above them.   Not into Hopkins or Adams as first rounders, and Evans and Godwin went from the least efficient QB in the league to one of the best.   

 

Except 2019 Winston was just gold for fantasy numbers. I feel like Brady will help Tampa more in real life but be worse than Winston.

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Yeah, i phrased it poorly but i'm down on Evans and Godwin for that reason.  Brady won't turn it over as much and won't sling.  I expect less passing yards there by a bit- honestly even if Jameis came back it would've been hard to replicate that amazing season.  I think they were WR2 and 3 overall before Evans went down.   

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No idea what Thomas Brady has to do with anything - good to see the old man is trying to continue his career.  MT is in his prime and looks to be continuing his monstrous career.

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9 hours ago, BrianM said:

I share that, mostly.  I'm even really struggling with the guys above them.   Not into Hopkins or Adams as first rounders, and Evans and Godwin went from the least efficient QB in the league to one of the best.   

Not into Hopkins or Adams either that high. 

We’ve seen Hopkins perform with worse QBs than Murray but getting traded to a new team when you likely won’t have time to build chemistry is tough as a WR. GB seems like they may like to run the ball more as well.

I do love Hill and Godwin at their ADPs though. Hill is pretty much I guarantee top 3 finish if healthy IMO. While I agree Brady isn’t good for fantasy as much as Watson Godwin fits his play style very well. Evans is the one that will suffer.

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