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Michael Thomas 2020 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, Guccimonster said:

You always start your studs no matter what. Why would I want to bench Thomas after being hurt all season and then having two bad games in a row? I’m going to play him cause his talent alone makes him startable.

 

looks at zeke in Dallas, rotoworld was literally starting to call him a low end rb 2/high end 3 weeks ago and look what he does yesterday vs the Vikings with a healthy Andy Dalton. 
 

Always play your best players!

Just FYI Zeke hadn't broken a hundred total yards or gotten a TD since week 5 before yesterday's game. For that period of time he was literally, and predictably given his starting QB and OLine injuries, a low end RB2 / high end RB3. 

Some of you guys act like dudes get a bonus multiplier for their weekly scores based on where they were drafted. I didn't see any of you in here after the SF game after MT went 2/7 with 27 yards saying "always start your studs! gotta get that 27 yard performance from your 1st round pick! you're a loser who deserves to lose if you didn't start Michael Thomas!". You wait until he has his first good performance of the season, in week 11, and THEN you show up to crow about how you knew it all along and what could anybody have possibly been thinking not starting such a player. 

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1 hour ago, yossarian said:

Just FYI Zeke hadn't broken a hundred total yards or gotten a TD since week 5 before yesterday's game. For that period of time he was literally, and predictably given his starting QB and OLine injuries, a low end RB2 / high end RB3. 

Some of you guys act like dudes get a bonus multiplier for their weekly scores based on where they were drafted. I didn't see any of you in here after the SF game after MT went 2/7 with 27 yards saying "always start your studs! gotta get that 27 yard performance from your 1st round pick! you're a loser who deserves to lose if you didn't start Michael Thomas!". You wait until he has his first good performance of the season, in week 11, and THEN you show up to crow about how you knew it all along and what could anybody have possibly been thinking not starting such a player. 


MT is a weekly starter and people who watch the games know how game script affected both of his previous games.

 

TB being blown out at half and Brees being subbed out because of injury. Even after these two games you start MT regardless because of his talent alone, any QB can throw to him!

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Last couple pages of this thread are the definition of armchair QB.  My god.  

I started MT the first two games he came back (w Brees) and like everyone got screwed.  You think it’s smart to then start him again w/o the QB he’s played his entire career with??  Good for you.  I don’t, esp when the guy coming in had barely played any passing QB in his entire NFL career.  

There are million variables that can influence “start your studs”.  Football is a match up based game.  “Start your studs” is for lazy people who think that line of thinking gives them some kindof cred to come in after the fact and pound chest.  ARob, DionJohnson, AJBrown, and Pittman Jr were all options on my bench I would have played over him this week.  Stud or not.  Nobody says “start your studs” the week after they give you 5 points.  NOBODY.

[...] I was not going to be starting MT this week, or possibly another OR MORE if he put up a 3rd dud.  If I have no confidence in a player I rid myself of him for someone I can at least put in my lineup and feel good about it.  And based on all the MANY red flags of this season - injury, punching teammates, Brees ignoring him, preseason drama, and Taysom Hill as his new QB, I was happy to move him, and/or would have benched him.  That’s SMART magic football managing IMO.  

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story

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“Start your studs” really only applies when a guy has an off week IMO.  The MT situation was not a “SYS” situation.  He’s been wacked out on several levels all season. 

Edited by Cleanface
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18 minutes ago, Cleanface said:

Last couple pages of this thread are the definition of armchair QB.  My god.  

I started MT the first two games he came back (w Brees) and like everyone got screwed.  You think it’s smart to then start him again w/o the QB he’s played his entire career with??  Good for you.  I don’t, esp when the guy coming in had barely played any passing QB in his entire NFL career.  

There are million variables that can influence “start your studs”.  Football is a match up based game.  “Start your studs” is for lazy people who think that line of thinking gives them some kindof cred to come in after the fact and pound chest.  ARob, DionJohnson, AJBrown, and Pittman Jr were all options on my bench I would have played over him this week.  Stud or not.  Nobody says “start your studs” the week after they give you 5 points.  NOBODY.

[...] I was not going to be starting MT this week, or possibly another OR MORE if he put up a 3rd dud.  If I have no confidence in a player I rid myself of him for someone I can at least put in my lineup and feel good about it.  And based on all the MANY red flags of this season - injury, punching teammates, Brees ignoring him, preseason drama, and Taysom Hill as his new QB, I was happy to move him, and/or would have benched him.  That’s SMART magic football managing IMO.  

I actually played MT over the likes of Evans, AB and Ahmed who rode my bench this week. Reason being, I had a feeling that Hill would be relying on the most reliable target to get him through the game. It played out as I suspected it would, but I've been wrong a lot this season in this particular league I have MT in.

There are a ton of casual players on here now that FFB is more mainstream who post their nonsense. I'm learning to ignore it. Operative word = learning.

The irony is that I did a little experiment. In the league I own MT in, I listed more to the armchair QBs on these forums and the "experts" with FFB sites less. In my other league, I've primarily only listened to my rationale and gut feelings. I'm in 9th in my MT/armchair QB league and in 1st in my "gut" league. Go figure...

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1 minute ago, Gootz said:

I actually played MT over the likes of Evans, AB and Ahmed who rode my bench this week. Reason being, I had a feeling that Hill would be relying on the most reliable target to get him through the game. It played out as I suspected it would, but I've been wrong a lot this season in this particular league I have MT in..


that’s the same thing I thought.  I actually posted that exact thing in this thread before I traded him. How Taysom would ONLY target him, etc etc. Tried to give myself some hope.  Still didn’t make me comfortable enough to keep him, or potentially start him. 

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23 hours ago, rasrar said:

Did he play Atlanta 2 weeks ago? Even last week with Winston the targets were there, but Winston was a bit erratic. The biggest takeaway from the last two weeks that I saw was that MT looked fully healthy, that's all I really needed to know to start him going forward. Did you believe that one of the most talented WRs in the league was going to just put up 4 points a game from here on out? Really.

 

As I've maintained... unless you have 3 top 10 WRs, starting MT gave you the best chance to score points, despite the pedestrian performances the last two games. That is, if you believe one of the most talented WRs in the league that still in his mid 20s lost his talent overnight.

Anyway, it seems like neither of us are going to convince you that your approach is wrong. I'll just say the ability to forecast performances like these and to not overreact from a couple of bad performances are usually what separates people in fantasy football.

The guy has played 2 games since coming from injury and we're going to use that sample size over the years of data we have on his talent/ability. It literally makes no sense. This is offense is more or less the same personnel as last year too.

 

I'm going to use week 1 and the previous 2 weeks as a sample size because it's 2020 and if Michael Thomas wasn't getting it done with Brees, why would I put my playoff push on the shoulders of Taysom Hill. I don't care how talented the player is, 2 weeks of duds this late in the season is bad.

 

Please keep beating your chest though, I find it amusing.

 

For the record, I did start Michael Thomas, and still lost so my bias isn't over Michael Thomas this week.

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Edited by n4sa

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It's not a matter of playing armchair QB. But as I've said, if you aren't starting Michael Thomas against Atlanta, when are you starting him?

If the answer is never... you're better off getting something of value for him than having an elite talent sit on your bench against the worst pass defense in the NFL.

Yeah, it's 2020... it still makes no sense to use 3 games of data over the past 4 seasons of data. Especially when as some one else mentioned, the last 2 games were very much dictated by negative game script.

Agree to disagree here, I guess. You all can do as you please, but I'll never endorse benching a player as talent as MT against a bottom 3 pass defense. I don't care if I am playing QB.

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Outlook for how he does this weekend against Denver?

 

WR1s have actually fare quite well against Denver;

 

Keenan Allen 9/67/1

Julio Jones 5/54/1

Tyreek Hill 6/55/1

Jamison Crowder 7/104/0

Diontae Johnson 8/92/1

Mike Evans 2/2/2

 

Could this be the week MT gets his first TD of the season? Thoughts?

 

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1 hour ago, rasrar said:

Outlook for how he does this weekend against Denver?

 

WR1s have actually fare quite well against Denver;

 

Keenan Allen 9/67/1

Julio Jones 5/54/1

Tyreek Hill 6/55/1

Jamison Crowder 7/104/0

Diontae Johnson 8/92/1

Mike Evans 2/2/2

 

Could this be the week MT gets his first TD of the season? Thoughts?

 

5/37/2

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27 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

5/37/2

Taking the over on 5 catches. He's the clear go-to-guy for Hill. He's healthy now and he looks uncoverable again.

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Thomas doesn’t have the same explosion in his breaks he had before the ankle injury. It was pretty evident watching him against the Bucs. But he’s gotten a little quicker, a little more confident in that ankle each week since. I don’t know if he’ll be back to the violent breaks I’m used to this week, but he’s getting there. 
 

If you guys don’t start him this week, you’re crazy.
 

8/132/1

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