BrianM

Robert Woods 2020 Outlook

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I’ll take the points but this seems like a sell-high situation. The volume just isn’t there for these types of repeatable performances. 

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5 hours ago, varock said:

I’ll take the points but this seems like a sell-high situation. The volume just isn’t there for these types of repeatable performances. 


the volume and how the rams are running their offense had me concerned. I sold him last night in a package deal.  The other guy actually asked for fuller first and I countered with woods. He said he would rather have fuller but settled with woods. Not sure if that was a good move but I like fullers upside. 

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1 hour ago, cgu112 said:


the volume and how the rams are running their offense had me concerned. I sold him last night in a package deal.  The other guy actually asked for fuller first and I countered with woods. He said he would rather have fuller but settled with woods. Not sure if that was a good move but I like fullers upside. 

He produced in all but one game. He’s exactly what we thought we were drafting. A safe WR2 with a capped ceiling. Sheesh 

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7 minutes ago, LAeagle said:

He produced in all but one game. He’s exactly what we thought we were drafting. A safe WR2 with a capped ceiling. Sheesh 


do you understand how low volume could be a cause for concern?   A guy who hasn't been a big td producer in his 8 yr career is being saved by tds. 
 

here are his targets: 5, 7, 6, 5, 8.   Receptions: 4, 6, 5, 2, 6.  
 

if you think he can keep up this efficiency then great. But those underlying stats are not exciting. 

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ya'll are freaking out. this guy is as safe as they come. plug and play WR2. He will have a few duds, but most of the time he'll get you around 15 points.

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Every week the same here.

7 points: Inconstancy! Kupp is a problem! Goff is not good enough to feed so many mouths.

15 points: What a stud. He looked good. Set and forget WR2 all day.

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1 hour ago, fantasyscholar said:

ya'll are freaking out. this guy is as safe as they come. plug and play WR2. He will have a few duds, but most of the time he'll get you around 15 points.

"Safe as they come" and "plug and play" seem inconsistent with having duds.

He obviously got bailed out by the long TD, otherwise his line would be abysmal.  I'm heavily invested in him and wish I had gone in a different direction.  Kupp, Amari Cooper, DK, Lockett, and McLaurin all went behind him.  Nothing to do but keep throwing him out there now.

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5 hours ago, CooL said:

"Safe as they come" and "plug and play" seem inconsistent with having duds.

He obviously got bailed out by the long TD, otherwise his line would be abysmal.  I'm heavily invested in him and wish I had gone in a different direction.  Kupp, Amari Cooper, DK, Lockett, and McLaurin all went behind him.  Nothing to do but keep throwing him out there

Every dude that you mentioned went earlier than him in my league lol.

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6 hours ago, CooL said:

"Safe as they come" and "plug and play" seem inconsistent with having duds.

He obviously got bailed out by the long TD, otherwise his line would be abysmal.  I'm heavily invested in him and wish I had gone in a different direction.  Kupp, Amari Cooper, DK, Lockett, and McLaurin all went behind him.  Nothing to do but keep throwing him out there now.

In which word are you drafting Woods before Cooper, Kupp, Locket!? [...]

Edited by tonycpsu

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On 10/12/2020 at 7:48 AM, WesternSociety said:

Every dude that you mentioned went earlier than him in my league lol.

 

On 10/12/2020 at 8:25 AM, devilfish said:

In which word are you drafting Woods before Cooper, Kupp, Locket!? Maybe try to find a league with adults!?

[...]  It's not like I'm here saying I drafted James Washington before these guys.  In 12 and 14 team leagues, all of the guys I listed were 3rd and 4th rounders.

Kupp - he was not on the field much towards the end of the season as the team moved to two tight end sets with the emergence of Higbee. Kupp's high PPR finish was buoyed by an unbelievable run of scoring TDs, which everyone knows is not sustainable.  The shift in Rams offensive philosophy caused many who follow the team to say that Bobby Trees would be the beneficiary.

Amari Cooper - have you owned him in the last couple years?  Easy to say that he should have been picked ahead of Robert Woods now.  But seriously, have you ever owned Amari.  BOOM...bust...bust...bust...BOOM.  

Lockett and DK.  Nobody could foresee that Seattle would actually let Russ cook.  Seattle has always run the ball and Russ was hyper efficient.  So you had two WRs who needed to be supported and that efficiency is hard to maintain.

McLaurin.  Well, it's the Redski...err.. Football team.  And Dwayne Haskins.  

 

I thought Woods was going to have positive touchdown regression given the new scheme and my mistake was thinking Goff was a competent QB.  He's league average.  And either the league has figured out McVay or he's just too smart for his own good and can't stop tinkering.  

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed condescension
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2 minutes ago, CooL said:

 

Easy there, rookie.  It's not like I'm here saying I drafted James Washington before these guys.  In 12 and 14 team leagues, all of the guys I listed were 3rd and 4th rounders.

Kupp - he was not on the field much towards the end of the season as the team moved to two tight end sets with the emergence of Higbee. Kupp's high PPR finish was buoyed by an unbelievable run of scoring TDs, which everyone knows is not sustainable.  The shift in Rams offensive philosophy caused many who follow the team to say that Bobby Trees would be the beneficiary.

Amari Cooper - have you owned him in the last couple years?  Easy to say that he should have been picked ahead of Robert Woods now.  But seriously, have you ever owned Amari.  BOOM...bust...bust...bust...BOOM.  

Lockett and DK.  Nobody could foresee that Seattle would actually let Russ cook.  Seattle has always run the ball and Russ was hyper efficient.  So you had two WRs who needed to be supported and that efficiency is hard to maintain.

McLaurin.  Well, it's the Redski...err.. Football team.  And Dwayne Haskins.  

 

I thought Woods was going to have positive touchdown regression given the new scheme and my mistake was thinking Goff was a competent QB.  He's league average.  And either the league has figured out McVay or he's just too smart for his own good and can't stop tinkering.  

You should learn from your rookie mistakes boi. Next draft will be better 

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2 minutes ago, CooL said:

 

Easy there, rookie.  It's not like I'm here saying I drafted James Washington before these guys.  In 12 and 14 team leagues, all of the guys I listed were 3rd and 4th rounders.

Kupp - he was not on the field much towards the end of the season as the team moved to two tight end sets with the emergence of Higbee. Kupp's high PPR finish was buoyed by an unbelievable run of scoring TDs, which everyone knows is not sustainable.  The shift in Rams offensive philosophy caused many who follow the team to say that Bobby Trees would be the beneficiary.

Amari Cooper - have you owned him in the last couple years?  Easy to say that he should have been picked ahead of Robert Woods now.  But seriously, have you ever owned Amari.  BOOM...bust...bust...bust...BOOM.  

Lockett and DK.  Nobody could foresee that Seattle would actually let Russ cook.  Seattle has always run the ball and Russ was hyper efficient.  So you had two WRs who needed to be supported and that efficiency is hard to maintain.

McLaurin.  Well, it's the Redski...err.. Football team.  And Dwayne Haskins.  

 

I thought Woods was going to have positive touchdown regression given the new scheme and my mistake was thinking Goff was a competent QB.  He's league average.  And either the league has figured out McVay or he's just too smart for his own good and can't stop tinkering.  

 

Exactly this... i picked Woods over Lockett and DK thinking the same thing... Pete Carroll loves to run the ball. nobody saw the crazy start to the season Russ is having. In the end of the day, drafting is your best guess as to how the player would do over the season. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you miss... i missed a ton this year on WRs... my team is hurting so badly :( 

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On 10/12/2020 at 8:21 AM, CooL said:

I thought Woods was going to have positive touchdown regression given the new scheme and my mistake was thinking Goff was a competent QB.  He's league average.  And either the league has figured out McVay or he's just too smart for his own good and can't stop tinkering.  

Positive regression? Sure 

But he had 3 TD's last year on 156 targets/rushes and he has 3 TD's this year on 39 targets/rushes. I think a lot of people drafted this guy for the massive amounts of targets, the PPR and yards floor, and he has been the exact opposite. He's trying to be 2018 Lockett. 

If Robert Woods scores close to double digit TD's this year, (he's on pace for 9.6) then his # of targets won't matter, but I don't know if he can do that getting the 99 targets he is currently projected for. 

McVay is really becoming tough to deal with for fantasy.

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If you think Woods is hurting your team, you have issues elsewhere.

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WR14 in half ppr...pretty much exactly where most of us projected he would produce.  Owners are fickle...

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On 10/12/2020 at 9:21 AM, CooL said:

 

[...]  It's not like I'm here saying I drafted James Washington before these guys.  In 12 and 14 team leagues, all of the guys I listed were 3rd and 4th rounders.

Kupp - he was not on the field much towards the end of the season as the team moved to two tight end sets with the emergence of Higbee. Kupp's high PPR finish was buoyed by an unbelievable run of scoring TDs, which everyone knows is not sustainable.  The shift in Rams offensive philosophy caused many who follow the team to say that Bobby Trees would be the beneficiary.

Amari Cooper - have you owned him in the last couple years?  Easy to say that he should have been picked ahead of Robert Woods now.  But seriously, have you ever owned Amari.  BOOM...bust...bust...bust...BOOM.  

Lockett and DK.  Nobody could foresee that Seattle would actually let Russ cook.  Seattle has always run the ball and Russ was hyper efficient.  So you had two WRs who needed to be supported and that efficiency is hard to maintain.

McLaurin.  Well, it's the Redski...err.. Football team.  And Dwayne Haskins.  

 

I thought Woods was going to have positive touchdown regression given the new scheme and my mistake was thinking Goff was a competent QB.  He's league average.  And either the league has figured out McVay or he's just too smart for his own good and can't stop tinkering.  

[...]

He is having touchdown regression hes already had as many as last year in 5 games....

Anyway don't need to get into it with you, I'm just saying he's doing pretty well for where we all drafted him. Good luck!

I owned Amari his second year. Yes it was awful but hea a new cat on dallas. Defnitely would've taken over woods.

Lockett I would've defnitely taken over Woods, not sure about Metcalf at the time.

I like woods more than Kupp value, so if they wre drafted exact same spot maybe I would go Kupp but he went earlier.

Yeah Haskins is garbage but F1 is elite, had him last year and passed the eyebtwst with flying colors.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed back-and-forth sniping.
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#18 overall WR in my full PPR (bonus for 100+ yards) league. Feel like where I drafted him this is a great place to be, and about what I expected. If you were EXPECTING (not hoping for, which we always hope about every player) a top 5 season out of a guy you probably got in the 4th-6th round I don't know what to tell you. They are giving him some rushes, finding ways to use him.

Like others said, safe WR2. I don't think anyone was trying to hit it out of the park with him. But if that's too boring for you, feel free to ship him for any of the number of boom or bust deep threats that will give you the rollercoaster you are looking for each week! Maybe the Julio owner in your league could use a little consistency at this point in the season?

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On 10/12/2020 at 7:48 AM, WesternSociety said:

Every dude that you mentioned went earlier than him in my league lol.

 

I mean, I had to check. Kupp, McLaurin and Cooper went a full round plus ahead of him. Sutton, Chark and Lockett went ahead of him. The only one that didn't in my league was DK...and he went next pick.

Woods was WR21. He is WR14, and WR18 in ppg I think. Almost exactly what we drafted.

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On 10/14/2020 at 2:51 PM, tschwicht said:

#18 overall WR in my full PPR (bonus for 100+ yards) league. Feel like where I drafted him this is a great place to be, and about what I expected. If you were EXPECTING (not hoping for, which we always hope about every player) a top 5 season out of a guy you probably got in the 4th-6th round I don't know what to tell you. They are giving him some rushes, finding ways to use him.

Like others said, safe WR2. I don't think anyone was trying to hit it out of the park with him. But if that's too boring for you, feel free to ship him for any of the number of boom or bust deep threats that will give you the rollercoaster you are looking for each week! Maybe the Julio owner in your league could use a little consistency at this point in the season?


His production so far has been great. But when you dive deeper into the numbers is where it gets concerning as an owner.
 

He is likely due for some TD regression. 3 TDS in 5 games from a guy whose best year was 7 and he’s already matched last years total. The targets are the bigger concern. He averaged nearly 9 a game last year and the last 7 games after they switched up their offense he had at least 9 targets in every game averaging over 11. 
 

I don’t think anyone is unhappy with his fantasy points per game so far given the price we paid for him. But it’s fair to wonder if he can maintain it on his current target share. 

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36 minutes ago, alleyce said:


His production so far has been great. But when you dive deeper into the numbers is where it gets concerning as an owner.
 

He is likely due for some TD regression. 3 TDS in 5 games from a guy whose best year was 7 and he’s already matched last years total. The targets are the bigger concern. He averaged nearly 9 a game last year and the last 7 games after they switched up their offense he had at least 9 targets in every game averaging over 11. 
 

I don’t think anyone is unhappy with his fantasy points per game so far given the price we paid for him. But it’s fair to wonder if he can maintain it on his current target share. 

This is exactly my concern. 

I've been considering seeing if I can convert him into a QB1 since right now I have Ryan after Dak went down.  I'd say he's the worst of my four main receivers, and I have more optimism for AJ Brown than Woods.

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