BrianM

Robert Woods 2020 Outlook

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9 hours ago, alleyce said:

...The targets are the bigger concern. He averaged nearly 9 a game last year and the last 7 games after they switched up their offense he had at least 9 targets in every game averaging over 11. 
... But it’s fair to wonder if he can maintain it on his current target share. 

 

This is my only concern with Woods going forward. If the Rams continue to commit to the run and their defense going forward, Woods' target share might not be high enough to sustain an automatic start vs unfavorable matchups where the Rams might run out the clock and Goff doesn't throw a ton. If you have a higher upside guy with a more favorable matchup and team target share, even on a run-focused team (AJ Brown was mentioned and would be my team's pick for example) they might be a better pick on certain weeks.

Fantasy players love the sexy boom or bust players. They forgive the occasional dud when a player is capable of putting up that sexy 35 point game. Woods is as unsexy as it comes as your "set and forget" WR2. He's rarely going to score less than 5 pts or even 10 pts in 0.5 PPR, but most likely isn't putting up 20 pts either. He's the guy you draft and put in your lineup to stabilize your floor and let your boom or bust studs win or lose the week for you.

So don't like, OVERTHINK it. Start him in most scenarios. Don't bench him for a boom or bust guy like Darius Slayton. But keep an eye on the target shares/TD regression and if you have someone with a higher floor don't feel bad benching him.

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9 hours ago, alleyce said:


His production so far has been great. But when you dive deeper into the numbers is where it gets concerning as an owner.
 

He is likely due for some TD regression. 3 TDS in 5 games from a guy whose best year was 7 and he’s already matched last years total. The targets are the bigger concern. He averaged nearly 9 a game last year and the last 7 games after they switched up their offense he had at least 9 targets in every game averaging over 11. 
 

I don’t think anyone is unhappy with his fantasy points per game so far given the price we paid for him. But it’s fair to wonder if he can maintain it on his current target share. 

Would you take Julio for him? I mean he is also hurt all the time and he has Ryan. 

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On 8/29/2020 at 6:54 PM, sjm76 said:

Even in half point PPR I still think that Woods has the chance to finish as a wr1 if the td's go up.  He had an 172 yard game last year and some other high reception and high yardage games.  All he needs are for the td's to go up.

I believe Kupp has 3 red zone targets and Woods none ;( so this can only improve? Lol

Edited by luckBbrady
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12 minutes ago, luckBbrady said:

I believe Kupp has 3 red zone targets and Woods none ;( so this can only improve? Lol

By my count Woods has 3 RZ targets

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35 minutes ago, smeeze said:

By my count Woods has 3 RZ targets

I stand corrected yep he’s 3 for 3. Do either Kupp or Woods have any end zone targets?

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He has been pretty solid even with the decrease in targets so far and negative game script.

Do we really believe their defense is for real? They have played some pretty poor offenses thus far...Eagles/Giants/Redskins.  The Bills hung 35 on them and Woods had his best fantasy game of the year.  If he is showing you his floor, I think he is in for some bigger games going forward going up against teams that can put up points.

McVay is content on running it while up and not letting Goff hurt them.

Still have Niners x2, Seahawks x2, Pats, Dolphins, Bucs, Cardinals on tap.

Edited by ludawg23

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2 hours ago, luckBbrady said:

I stand corrected yep he’s 3 for 3. Do either Kupp or Woods have any end zone targets?

 

nflsavant.com  

Has Woods listed at 3 for 4 RZ Targets , Kupp is 4 for 5 RZ Targets

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12 hours ago, Jay85 said:

Would you take Julio for him? I mean he is also hurt all the time and he has Ryan. 


Just Woods target share concerns for me makes Julio the better option. The positive side would be they started with 3 games against the NFC east so maybe the soft schedule led to less need to pass and as the schedule gets a little tougher they pick up where they left off last year. 
 

Julio has been about as consistent as they come in recent years and I am hopefully after he sat last week if they activate him that means he’s over the hammy. I view him as the number 1 in that offense but at worst he’s 1B and they will be throwing a ton all year. 

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1 hour ago, alleyce said:


Just Woods target share concerns for me makes Julio the better option. The positive side would be they started with 3 games against the NFC east so maybe the soft schedule led to less need to pass and as the schedule gets a little tougher they pick up where they left off last year. 
 

Julio has been about as consistent as they come in recent years and I am hopefully after he sat last week if they activate him that means he’s over the hammy. I view him as the number 1 in that offense but at worst he’s 1B and they will be throwing a ton all year. 

Who would you start this week woods or godwin? People leaning more towards woods because of godwins injury but I hate this rams offense can't decide who to go with

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8 hours ago, GreenBaySlacker said:

Who would you start this week woods or godwin? People leaning more towards woods because of godwins injury but I hate this rams offense can't decide who to go with


I would go Woods there. I would normally like Godwin better but he is coming back after a multi week injury and on top of that is expected to be shadowed by Jaire Alexander who I think is one of the leagues better corners. I don’t think he’s likely to get saved by a TD either, Brady has been locked in on Evans there and GB is giving up a ton of rushing scores. The ground game is the best way to attack GB, with Kenny Clark out. Tampa loves to throw though so we will see how much they are able to take advantage of that. 

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47 minutes ago, alleyce said:


I would go Woods there. I would normally like Godwin better but he is coming back after a multi week injury and on top of that is expected to be shadowed by Jaire Alexander who I think is one of the leagues better corners. I don’t think he’s likely to get saved by a TD either, Brady has been locked in on Evans there and GB is giving up a ton of rushing scores. The ground game is the best way to attack GB, with Kenny Clark out. Tampa loves to throw though so we will see how much they are able to take advantage of that. 

Kenny is back, and Alexander won't shadow Godwin, as much as I wish he would. He'll likely spend the day against Evans, especially if King can't play. 

 

I'd be playing Godwin over Woods without hesitation. GB/TB is going to be a shootout

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5 hours ago, smetana34 said:

Kenny is back, and Alexander won't shadow Godwin, as much as I wish he would. He'll likely spend the day against Evans, especially if King can't play. 

 

I'd be playing Godwin over Woods without hesitation. GB/TB is going to be a shootout


Why would you assume he is shadowing Evans? Read an article that said he would likely be on Godwin and I thought that made sense with the 6’5” to 5’10” height difference if he’s on Evans. Godwin also out targeted Evans in both games he played so more of a go to for Brady than Evans on the limited sample we have. 
 

Vegas has the Rams down for 27.5 and the Bucs for 27.5 also so both teams  implied scores are the same. Maybe a slight edge to Godwin here since they are the dogs in their game so more likely to be playing from behind. 

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Need a vintage Bobby Trees line tonight - I know you won’t let me down.

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3 minutes ago, ludawg23 said:

Need a vintage Bobby Trees line tonight - I know you won’t let me down.

Ditto. 8-190-2 sounds about right. 

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Just now, CooL said:

Ditto. 8-190-2 sounds about right. 

 

why do you think he'll sit the whole second half?

😁

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8 hours ago, alleyce said:


Why would you assume he is shadowing Evans? Read an article that said he would likely be on Godwin and I thought that made sense with the 6’5” to 5’10” height difference if he’s on Evans. Godwin also out targeted Evans in both games he played so more of a go to for Brady than Evans on the limited sample we have. 
 

Vegas has the Rams down for 27.5 and the Bucs for 27.5 also so both teams  implied scores are the same. Maybe a slight edge to Godwin here since they are the dogs in their game so more likely to be playing from behind. 

Because he's a boundary corner. He doesn't follow guys into the slot, which is where Godwin predominately works. I'd be curious to see how many times Alexander was on Godwin today, because it wasn't much. 

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You've got to love his target share this week.    His reception count wasn't great, but the 9ers actually played some defense this week (got a few guys back).

Sadly, I had him on the bench this week, but I have some consolation knowing my opponent played Kupp...

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On 10/18/2020 at 9:26 PM, fbi314159 said:

You've got to love his target share this week.    His reception count wasn't great, but the 9ers actually played some defense this week (got a few guys back).

Sadly, I had him on the bench this week, but I have some consolation knowing my opponent played Kupp...

TBH I don't really love anything about this offense. His targets are up and down and 50% of his games have been under 40 yards receiving.

He's on pace for about 10 touchdowns this season which has really been keeping his floor high. Unless you expect him to keep getting touchdowns, he's in the WR2-WR3 territory.

 

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Just now, FitzMagic said:

What’s up with him? What a bizarre day of injury reports. 

 

McVay says he's fully expected to go on Monday ... not great to see a groin injury pop up this late in the week, tho, agreed. 

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Wild.  McVay said he has general "groin soreness" and they held him out of practice as a precaution.  Said he expects Woods to play on Monday so still one more day of practice on tap.

Edited by ludawg23
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dammit....id rather they just not let him play if it helps....im not using him this week in this hell MU

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I benched him already for this week.  I still don't trust his target share--5 targets a game is going to make it difficult to want to start him.  If I thought he was going to get 10ish targets again like last week I'd easily start him.  I suspect it will fall back to his 5ish this week and against a bad matchup, I can't convince myself to start him.  Luckily, I have other options.  I hope he goes off.

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5 minutes ago, fbi314159 said:

I benched him already for this week.  I still don't trust his target share--5 targets a game is going to make it difficult to want to start him.  If I thought he was going to get 10ish targets again like last week I'd easily start him.  I suspect it will fall back to his 5ish this week and against a bad matchup, I can't convince myself to start him.  Luckily, I have other options.  I hope he goes off.

 

I think it's possible. I truly believe Sean McVay is clever enough to scheme around whatever defense (maybe with the exception of last week). And good old reliable Bobby Trees is now used in rushing attempts which is always a nice bonus. He is used everywhere in the formation so Im hoping he connects with Goff in multiple attempts. FYI DJ Moore also went off for 11 targets, 5 catches and 93 yards last week against the Bears DEF.

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15 hours ago, jpark211 said:

 

I think it's possible. I truly believe Sean McVay is clever enough to scheme around whatever defense (maybe with the exception of last week). And good old reliable Bobby Trees is now used in rushing attempts which is always a nice bonus. He is used everywhere in the formation so Im hoping he connects with Goff in multiple attempts. FYI DJ Moore also went off for 11 targets, 5 catches and 93 yards last week against the Bears DEF.

I wonder who was covering DJ last week?  I think bears use shadow coverage, so of attention was shifted away from DJ that’s doesn’t bode well for Woods, only Kupp.

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