BrianM

Buffalo Bills 2020 Outlook

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Didn't you hear?  The Bills already won the AFC East, per a bunch of talking heads.   Never mind that they haven't cracked 20 points scored on Belichick's defense in years.   Anyhoo, sorry, back on topic..........

Josh Allen produced well last year, but the game plan was restrictive a bit.  To me, it was by design, to limit turnovers that were making life difficult for the team.  A 10 win season validates the strategy IMO, but now its time to make a leap forward.  They have to open up a bit if they're getting past wild card one-and-done status.  

Two young RB's will split the load.  How's the split?  

John Brown had 1000 yards last year and was a great bargain.  Is he useless with Diggs there now?  Will they cancel each other out?

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I feel like EVERY YEAR the Bills are faves to win the AFC east or atleast will compete with the Pats to win the east....only to never actually win the East.

Even with Brady gone I feel like they cant win the East...

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Here's my opinions:

-There's enough potential for Allen to make a bigger leap that he's somewhat worth it as a QB1 selection (vs waiting on a QB).   It depends on how late i can get him, but i'm keeping an eye on it.  I dont see the rush TD's declining- he's just too good at it.   He may fall on his face, but he may just become a guy that actually can hit 300 yards in a game now and then.  

-Singletary is great, but I think Moss does enough to dip his touches, and Allen still leads the team in rush TD's.   This is great for the Bills, but bad for fantasy owners.

-I think Diggs does well here, but i feel like he's a better real lifer than fantasy player.  My comparison is Alshon Jeffery when he first came to the Eagles.  Jeffery was great for the team as he could draw a number one corner, and he could hit pay dirt often, but he was not putting up stats anywhere near the level he did in Chicago.   Add in Buffalo's defense keeping continuity for the most part, and its tough to buy high on pass catchers here.   Beasley, Brown, and Diggs are all good enough to pop now and then.

 

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1 minute ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I feel like EVERY YEAR the Bills are faves to win the AFC east or atleast will compete with the Pats to win the east....only to never actually win the East.

Even with Brady gone I feel like they cant win the East...

Your Patriots are the favorites.  Please place your bets now before things adjust accordingly.

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I actually like the Dolphins to win the east after the Pats..

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12 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I actually like the Dolphins to win the east after the Pats..

Well you're getting 7/1 odds, place your bet.

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18 minutes ago, SyNdicateZ said:

I feel like EVERY YEAR the Bills are faves to win the AFC east or atleast will compete with the Pats to win the east....only to never actually win the East.

Even with Brady gone I feel like they cant win the East...

 

I dont recall the Bills ever being considered a fave to win the AFC East.

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7 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

I dont recall the Bills ever being considered a fave to win the AFC East.

(That’s exactly why I urged several early bets now!)

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Posted (edited)

12-4 and 3rd seed in the AFC this year if Allen takes even a small step forward; 10-6 and a Wild Card if he does not.

Brown will have more receiving yards than Diggs. Dawson Knox becomes a low-end TE1.

60/40 touch split between Singletary and Moss.

Allen overvalued on draft day.

We beat any team not named Kansas City in the playoffs. So, ultimately, improvement but nothing crazy.

Edited by Br0kenB

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On 5/9/2020 at 11:00 PM, SyNdicateZ said:

I actually like the Dolphins to win the east after the Pats..

Really?

I don't see it.

The corners took a step forward with Byron Jones for sure.  I like their RB depth more with Howard and Breida but they're still major question marks.  Tua's a rookie recovering from a major injury and likely no camp and Fitzharvard is always good for some fun but never been the tip of the spear for a legit contender.  Shaq and Van Noy are nice situational pass rushers but this team still looks like it has some major holes, particularly in the front seven, at safety, most of the offensive line, receiver depth, etc.

I think they'll be better than last year but the Bills certainly look like the better outfit to me.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Really?

I don't see it.

The corners took a step forward with Byron Jones for sure.  I like their RB depth more with Howard and Breida but they're still major question marks.  Tua's a rookie recovering from a major injury and likely no camp and Fitzharvard is always good for some fun but never been the tip of the spear for a legit contender.  Shaq and Van Noy are nice situational pass rushers but this team still looks like it has some major holes, particularly in the front seven, at safety, most of the offensive line, receiver depth, etc.

I think they'll be better than last year but the Bills certainly look like the better outfit to me.

“Step forward”?!  That’s immediately the best starting CB tandem in the league.  To say nothing of Noah.  Jones, Strowbridge, Weaver via the draft.  Their defense looks excellent now.  
 

I’m not going to crown them by any means, but Miami is already a contender in that division.

Edited by BMcP

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

“Step forward”?!  That’s immediately the best starting CB tandem in the league.  To say nothing of Noah.  Jones, Strowbridge, Weaver via the draft.  Their defense looks excellent now.  
 

I’m not going to crown them by any means, but Miami is already a contender in that division.

Howard's played all 16 games once.

Don't get me wrong, he's a talented dude...when he plays.  But you know what they say about the best ability being "availability..."

Then you're looking at a rookie nickel, Rowe I think could be a talented safety in a vaccuum but who really knows with ex Pats, McCain is ok...

I'm not really going to change my projections for a defense based on 5th round rookies til I see how they play in the league, particularly in a year that will likely have no camp.

I'd definitely bet more heavily on the vets this year than a team that is relying on a dozen rookies and free agent signings to dramatically change their culture in what should be a very limited offseason program.

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3 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Howard's played all 16 games once.

Don't get me wrong, he's a talented dude...when he plays.  But you know what they say about the best ability being "availability..."

Then you're looking at a rookie nickel, Rowe I think could be a talented safety in a vaccuum but who really knows with ex Pats, McCain is ok...

I'm not really going to change my projections for a defense based on 5th round rookies til I see how they play in the league, particularly in a year that will likely have no camp.

I'd definitely bet more heavily on the vets this year than a team that is relying on a dozen rookies and free agent signings to dramatically change their culture in what should be a very limited offseason program.

I hear you.  I do think ex-Pats will likely fare pretty well with Flores.  And they still have plenty of vets returning (or joining) on D.

 

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I do believe the Dolphins are on the rise, and the way they battled last year under a supposed tanking season proves to me that they have the right coach.  I also really like Tua.   But i think they're too young and in transition to thrive despite this fractured offseason, and its gonna take them another year to get there.  

I'm still on board with Patriots as division favorites.  If i had to give odds I'm 43% Patriots, 36% Bills, 17% Dolphins, 4% Jets.   

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51 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I do believe the Dolphins are on the rise, and the way they battled last year under a supposed tanking season proves to me that they have the right coach.  I also really like Tua.   But i think they're too young and in transition to thrive despite this fractured offseason, and its gonna take them another year to get there.  

I'm still on board with Patriots as division favorites.  If i had to give odds I'm 43% Patriots, 36% Bills, 17% Dolphins, 4% Jets.   

 

The Jets should have a much higher chance to win IMO. Division should be pretty tight. I'd say like

30% Bills - 30% Pats - 25% Jets - 5% Fins

 

 

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I'm still LOLJets I guess.   Can't get behind Adam Gase.   

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This clearly typifies the place of the Buffalo Bills in the NFL universe. A "Buffalo Bills Outlook" thread becomes a discussion about another team. And its the 'fins for chrisake. 

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4 minutes ago, Troutbum said:

This clearly typifies the place of the Buffalo Bills in the NFL universe. A "Buffalo Bills Outlook" thread becomes a discussion about another team. And its the 'fins for chrisake. 

I find the Bills eminently sympathetic, but last season was the first time this millennium they had double digit won games - and only the 4th time they even had a winning season. At some point people just give up, unless you have absolutely no choice at all.

Which makes it even more amazing they still drew 50-60.000 spectators even at the end of painful seasons. That's real fandom.

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I won't defend the idiot tailgaters- even the ones who dont injure each other are crazy obsessive and really need other hobbies besides a mostly bad football team , but two genuine things i'll call out that are positive community effects:  One- they have this thing where they'll all pounce on a charitable cause in the name of Bills football.  You probably heard the Andy Dalton tale- there's a dozen more of those type of waves.   Second- the sheer amount of players who truly embrace this and feel the camaraderie.   

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For absolutely no reason, I am really high on Josh Allen to have a 2020 "Lamar Jackson" leap.
Allen has a lot of parallels to Jackson in terms of attributes and pieces around him - aims to pass first, great ability as a runner, tough, guys want to play for him. The Diggs trade is under-rated; Diggs is the kind of guy who will absolutely wreck a defensive coordinator's afternoon with his ability to win one-on-one. 
The key to Allen this year is for his OC to give him the type of reads and decisions Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson had - scheme people open, if it all falls down run. Allen's body of work is not to make amazing throws, it's to find the open guy and keep the chains moving. Diggs can get open. John Brown can get open. The Buffalo defense can get him the ball back. There's no reason why Allen can't make himself a top-tier fantasy QB with his legs and goalline work, and at a much reduced ADP to Jackson.
If the ADP hype around Jackson and Mahomes gets out of control, I'm not afraid to go grab Allen as my defacto RB2/QB1. Every year a team gets hot, and I'm willing to bet this year is Buffalo.

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4 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

For absolutely no reason, I am really high on Josh Allen to have a 2020 "Lamar Jackson" leap.
Allen has a lot of parallels to Jackson in terms of attributes 

 

Which ones? They both throw the ball a mile?

 

Allen stinks.

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31 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Which ones? They both throw the ball a mile?

 

Allen stinks.

You know better than that. Buffalo qb is a clone of elway. Big arm and not too smart. However I think he has a great future as a back up. 

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No excuse for not winning the AFC East this year, and frankly, for not reaching the divisional round at a minimum.

Team is stacked: Jets have Gase, Dolphins are in year 2 of a "tear it down to build it up" rebuild, Patriots have a tank commander in Shitham at QB.

I still like Josh Allen (like not love) but if he can't get it done this year, Bills need to be looking for competition next offseason

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8 minutes ago, Troutbum said:

 

You do know his Wonderlic score was in the top 95 percentile and the highest of his draft class right? 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2767339-report-josh-allen-josh-rosen-top-wonderlic-scores-for-2018-nfl-draft-qbs

I don't think he is dumb but he gets that label pretty much entirely from that one stupid lateral in the wild card game. Feels like it overshadows how much he flashed that game--even led a game tying FG drive for the Bills and had them in position for a game winner until a ticky tacky penalty

That and his aversion to self preservation on rushes is why he gets considered dumb.

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