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Davante Adams 2020 Outlook


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Davante Adams: WR8 in 2016, WR14 in 2017, WR3 in 2018 (age 25) and then in 2019... WR24. What's up with that?

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Last season 2 things happened:

- he got injured and missed 4 games. Injuries are not unusual for Adams, he missed games in 4 out of his 6 pro seasons.

- somehow his TDs decreased, After going on average a TD per 100 yd in 2016-2018, suddenly in 2019 those became a lot rarer (5 TD on 997 yd). This was partially due to a shift in focus in the GB offense; in 2018, Adams was involved on a quarter of the plays and Aaron Jones 20%; in 2019 that became 15% for Adams and a whopping 35% for Jones.
You can't blame GB either, Jones was incredibly effective with 11 TDs on 19 carries inside the 10.

So what will 2020 look like for Adams? Well, if he stays healthy, there's no reason he won't get 100/1200 - you have to discount him a bit for the injuries though, so 90/1100 is fair. The TDs are completely going to depend on the red zone strategy - if he becomes the primary focus again, then 11 TD could happen; if they continue like 2019, it would be around 6. 

In either case, that would put him around WR10 - but that's not where he's going in the rankings.

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Whoosh

LaFleur just said he should be good to go Sunday.  

“With no added WRs in the draft, Davante Adams is set to rollover the end of his 2019 season. Over the final 10 games of 2019 back from injury, Adams accounted for:

*33.4% of the GB targets

*34.4% of the Receptions

*40.5% of the ReYds

*50.0% of the ReTD”

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I have him as the 12th ranked player. He’s 6th on FFC and Sleeper at the moment. So not likely I’ll own him.

I’m not against Adams per say but middle of the 1st is too rich for me. Despite Adams likely receiving a huge target share Rodgers hasn’t gotten over 30 TDs since 2016 and is basically a 4,000 yard QB. This combined with the fact that the Packers seem to want to run the ball even more now knocks him down a bit for me. 

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I have him as the 12th ranked player. He’s 6th on FFC and Sleeper at the moment. So not likely I’ll own him.

I’m not against Adams per say but middle of the 1st is too rich for me. Despite Adams likely receiving a huge target share Rodgers hasn’t gotten over 30 TDs since 2016 and is basically a 4,000 yard QB. This combined with the fact that the Packers seem to want to run the ball even more now knocks him down a bit for me. 

But even if he’s throwing 25 TDs...don’t you want half of that for your WR1?

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

But even if he’s throwing 25 TDs...don’t you want half of that for your WR1?

Yes but I also rather have Thomas, Julio, Hill, and Godwin over him. So again, I don’t have an issue with him but there’s just as talented WRs if not more talented in better pass offenses and in better situations. While Adams likely has the target share advantage over almost anyone in the NFL it’s not enough for me to take him over those guys. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Yes but I also rather have Thomas, Julio, Hill, and Godwin over him. So again, I don’t have an issue with him but there’s just as talented WRs if not more talented in better pass offenses and in better situations. While Adams likely has the target share advantage over almost anyone in the NFL it’s not enough for me to take him over those guys. 

Hard to go wrong with any of those guys as a WR1.  No sense in splitting hairs.

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2 hours ago, BMcP said:

Over the final 10 games of 2019 back from injury

He was excellent in the post season. If we extrapolate the last 8 games of the regular season you get to around 110/1250/10, if you also take the post season into account it would even be 120/1450/11. To be honest, I'm taking the under on that last stat line.

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59 minutes ago, Evincar said:

I think he's got the safest floor among WRs after Thomas.

I think him and Hill are pretty much equally safe. Hill just has a higher ceiling which is why I have him ranked higher.

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

“With no added WRs in the draft, Davante Adams is set to rollover the end of his 2019 season. Over the final 10 games of 2019 back from injury, Adams accounted for:

*33.4% of the GB targets

*34.4% of the Receptions

*40.5% of the ReYds

*50.0% of the ReTD”


+1

And for anyone that actually saw the game he was torching every single double and sometimes triple coverage they threw at him before his injury. Personally I thought it was season ending injury. For him to come back the back half of the season and A-rod immediately go out of his way to get the ball to him. Yea. I. am. in. 
 


I am F’n miss football. American football. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Is there another type of football I should know about?


Fútbol 

️ GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

😅

I think some leagues actually coming back this week or this weekend. May 16th? 
 

 

Edited by ginocan
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11 minutes ago, ginocan said:


Fútbol 

️ GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL

😅

I think some leagues actually coming back this week or this weekend. May 16th? 
 

 

Yeah the Germans were supposed to start this week.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/may/06/bundesliga-set-for-go-ahead-to-resume-season-in-second-half-of-may

 

But I'm not fully convinced yet.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/may/09/bundesliga-restart-blow-dynamo-dresden-team-quarantined-covid-19

Edited by Boudewijn
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39 minutes ago, ginocan said:

I think some leagues actually coming back this week or this weekend. May 16th? 

I checked a couple German papers and even they are not entirely sure. At the same time, some top teams seem to be at the breaking point - eg Schalke may well go broke without matches and tv money.

In any case, the plan is to start playing top level games with empty stadiums, but with TV. The premier league (England) should take a decision today, but I doubt they'll go ahead. The Dutch have cancelled the rest of the season - probably not a bad idea.

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6 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I think him and Hill are pretty much equally safe. Hill just has a higher ceiling which is why I have him ranked higher.


Hill will have games with minimal impact just due to the number of targets on KC.  Potentially a higher weekly ceiling...but Adams is squarely in front when it comes to floor.  

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38 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I checked a couple German papers and even they are not entirely sure. At the same time, some top teams seem to be at the breaking point - eg Schalke may well go broke without matches and tv money.

In any case, the plan is to start playing top level games with empty stadiums, but with TV. The premier league (England) should take a decision today, but I doubt they'll go ahead. The Dutch have cancelled the rest of the season - probably not a bad idea.

 

Bundesliga isn't 100% sure what's going on. Officially it's 16th of may, but there are some clubs against this.

Little bit of offtopic for the amateurs league I play in they suggest to play it without headers and throw-ins :D So this is going to be fun. Don't expect anything before August for Amateurs though.

For DA, he i see him as second tier with Hill only. MT is a tier of his own above that.third tier then will be something in the reigns of JJ and Godwin, but haven't thought that enough through.

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26 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:


Hill will have games with minimal impact just due to the number of targets on KC.  Potentially a higher weekly ceiling...but Adams is squarely in front when it comes to floor.  

The counter to that is, when was the last time adams played a full season?

I know injuries are hard to predict, but has the dude ever seen 16 games?

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He will still put up the usual numbers when Jordan Love takes over as QB this year, Rodgers is old and made of glass. GB will move on from him just like they did with Favre. 

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4 minutes ago, itslarry said:

The counter to that is, when was the last time adams played a full season?

I know injuries are hard to predict, but has the dude ever seen 16 games?

Yes.  On more than one occasion. 

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10 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

Little bit of offtopic for the amateurs league I play in they suggest to play it without headers and throw-ins :D 

Wtf? How about slidings and shoulder pushes?

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22 minutes ago, itslarry said:

The counter to that is, when was the last time adams played a full season?

I know injuries are hard to predict, but has the dude ever seen 16 games?


Didn’t Tyreek just miss 5-6 games last season with the shoulder?    
 

Prob fair to say Adams is a higher injury than Hill overall.  I just think if both are playing,  Adams has less of a chance of a dud.   

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Thomas, and then interchange with Hill/Adams. Adams floor Hill ceiling for top-3 WR, and Julio belongs there too. 

Last year Adams was frustrating, but turned it on last 5-6 games of the year. The division doesn't seem as mighty as it once was besides possibly bears D being good again and Lions drafting that #3 pick as a CB.

I'd happily take him...but not mid 1st round. 

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