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Tyreek Hill 2020 Outlook

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Tyreek Cheeta Hill - not my favorite human being, but boy, what a football player.

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His 2019 numbers were down a bit from 2018 as far as targets and yard per catch was concerned, but that's mostly due to games 1 (shoulder) and 11 (hamstring).

All WRs are to some extent boom/bust, but when Hill goes off, he goes BOOM.

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About half his games he'll have 10 pts .5 PPR or less, but he alternates that with games of 20, 30 and even close to 40 pts, winning your matchup on his own. That's quite different from Davante Adams, who went all of 2018 without a single-digit game, or Julio, who also dips rarely below 10. I guess that makes Hill the ideal flex, except you do pay full sticker price of course - buyer beware then. In the chart above however you can also see that in 2019 it became somewhat less extreme; the lows almost disappeared (except his injury games) and the highs became a bit more normal. Maybe he's growing up.

All in all I think he is a bit more risky than the other players in the top tiers, but still obviously a top WR - top5 in 2019 over week 6-17 (meaning after he came back). Current rank on FantasyPros: #8. 

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I don't think he is more risky than anyone.

In terms of consistency, last season he had 0 games under 7.5 points (half-PPR and not including the ones he left due to injury). The season prior he had 3 such games and the season before that 4. So 7 games over 3 years. Over that time span he only has 1 game under 5. Julio has 6 such games with 3 under 5. Adams has 5 games over that stretch with 1 under 5 as well ( I don't know why you wouldn't factor last season into it). 

Yes, Hill is boom or bust. However, his bust isn't bust in the traditional sense. His bust games tend to still be sufficient enough. He's not going to get you 30 points and then 2-3 points. He's going to get you 30 points and likely 7-10 points. I have him as my #2 WR going into this season. 

 

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Catching dimes from Mahomes is a fantasy dream... I personally have him ranked at #2 after MT13 . Unless I snag one of those two, I’m going RB-RB . 

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

Catching dimes from Mahomes is a fantasy dream... I personally have him ranked at #2 after MT13 . Unless I snag one of those two, I’m going RB-RB . 

 

Here we GO AGAIN.  😁

I can't help myself but I asked another poster this same question after he made a similar assertion you just made.  

Let's break down the top 12 picks in no particular order:

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. MT

4. Zeke

5. Cook Kamara

6. Kamara

7. Henry

8. Hill (Looks like your guy starting here)

9. Mixon?

10-12. Who are your RBs you're targeting if your skipping the other elite WRs? 

 

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My #2 WR especially in Dynasty. Would even consider taking him over MT possibly.

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26 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Here we GO AGAIN.  😁

I can't help myself but I asked another poster this same question after he made a similar assertion you just made.  

Let's break down the top 12 picks in no particular order:

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. MT

4. Zeke

5. Cook Kamara

6. Kamara

7. Henry

8. Hill (Looks like your guy starting here)

9. Mixon?

10-12. Who are your RBs you're targeting if your skipping the other elite WRs? 

 

RB/RB is even more hilarious.

Let's do a little fun exercise of a 15 pick mock with you picking 10th. I'm going to use your list above

1) CMC

2) Barkley

3) Thomas

4) Zeke

5) Kamara

6) Cook

7) Henry

8 ) Hill

9) Mixon

10) Jacobs?

11) Jones (WR)

12) Chubb

13) Jones (RB)

14) Godwin

15) Fournette? Gordon?

Starting my team with like Jacobs and Fournette makes me want to puke. Compared to like Jones or Godwin (the "horrible" WR/WR route). I'll go the other way and say if I can't get my hands on one of CMC/Barkley/Zeke/Kamara/Cook/Mixon i'm likely going WR/WR. There's no way i'm taking any of those other dudes in the early second late first. Only one is maybe Henry.

 

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Here we GO AGAIN.  😁

I can't help myself but I asked another poster this same question after he made a similar assertion you just made.  

Let's break down the top 12 picks in no particular order:

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. MT

4. Zeke

5. Cook Kamara

6. Kamara

7. Henry

8. Hill (Looks like your guy starting here)

9. Mixon?

10-12. Who are your RBs you're targeting if your skipping the other elite WRs? 

 


I play in 10ers .. ok so what pick am I. Lets say I’m the 3rd pick, and I go Zeke .I’ll try and pair him with Sanders or Drake preferably, and Jacobs last resort. . 

Edited by RunCMC

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5 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


I play in 10ers .. ok so what pick am I. Lets say I’m the 3rd pick, and I go Zeke .I’ll try and pair him with Sanders or Drake preferably, and Jacobs last resort. . 

I mean you can pick who you want and it’s your opinion and all but taking a guy like Sanders or Drake over someone like Julio or Godwin is just absolutely insane. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I mean you can pick who you want and it’s your opinion and all but taking a guy like Sanders or Drake over someone like Julio or Godwin is just absolutely insane. 


I don’t think so 

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19 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


I don’t think so 

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, RunCMC said:


I don’t think so 

 

You don't get off the hook here so easily Bro.  Even in a 10 team league, my question still applies.

Let's say you have the 10th selection and all the players listed below were taken before your pick.

Since you refuse to take a WR, who are the two RBs your're taking at the turn?

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. MT

4. Zeke

5. Cook Kamara

6. Kamara

7. Henry

8. Hill 

9. Mixon?

10-11. Who are your RBs you're targeting if your skipping the other elite WRs? 

 

Edited by theSPANKER

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

You don't get off the hook here so easily Bro.  Even in a 10 team league, my question still applies.

Let's say you have the 10th selection and all the players listed below were taken before your pick.

Since you refuse to take a WR, who are the two RBs your're taking at the turn?

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. MT

4. Zeke

5. Cook Kamara

6. Kamara

7. Henry

8. Hill 

9. Mixon?

10-11. Who are your RBs you're targeting if your skipping the other elite WRs? 

 


Well you got Cook & Kamara both at 5. So with the 10th pick I would go Mixon , & 11th Chubb. If I can grab OBJ the following 2 rounds , it’s a great way to hit the draft, imo . 
 

Edit: Sorry just seen Kamara at 6 . I guess yeah 10th pick you’re screwed if you go the route I just explained. You can do Chubb and Drake at 10/11 . It’s a reach on Drake I know

Edited by RunCMC

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I know its the Hill thread, sorry boys last post.

@theSPANKER

Damn I couldn’t edit my last post. But I’m sure in some of my leagues Mixon won’t go at 9. And it wouldn’t surprise me seeing Henry fall out the top10 certain PPR leagues. All I’m saying is nothing is set in stone, but your example is like the worst case scenario , and you have to be drafting 10th. If it was an earlier pick per say , I wouldn’t mind a Kamara/Sanders pairing . 

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13 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

I know its the Hill thread, sorry boys last post.

@theSPANKER

Damn I couldn’t edit my last post. But I’m sure in some of my leagues Mixon won’t go at 9. And it wouldn’t surprise me seeing Henry fall out the top10 certain PPR leagues. All I’m saying is nothing is set in stone, but your example is like the worst case scenario , and you have to be drafting 10th. If it was an earlier pick per say , I wouldn’t mind a Kamara/Sanders pairing . 

 

No problem man, I finger fudge stuff all the time on here and I need to do a better job reviewing my messages before I post them.  ;)

 

Yes the scenario I created was designed to be the worst case event.  That's the way I approach my drafts because I don't want to be taken by surprise.  I assume everyone is an expert knowing what the hell they are doing or they are haters (like in my league lol) who want to see you grovel in agony during the draft.

 

I agree with you, most likely the draft won't go that way.  Most likely you're value pick you're targeting would be there for you. But if it didn't work out that way, I just wanted your honest response of who your 2 selections would be at the end of the first round, given your declaration you won't take a WR in rounds 1 or 2.   

 

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1 hour ago, theSPANKER said:

 

You don't get off the hook here so easily Bro.  Even in a 10 team league, my question still applies.

Let's say you have the 10th selection and all the players listed below were taken before your pick.

Since you refuse to take a WR, who are the two RBs your're taking at the turn?

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. MT

4. Zeke

5. Cook Kamara

6. Kamara

7. Henry

8. Hill 

9. Mixon?

10-11. Who are your RBs you're targeting if your skipping the other elite WRs? 

 

 

Kenyan Drake

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24 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

I know its the Hill thread, sorry boys last post.

@theSPANKER

Damn I couldn’t edit my last post. But I’m sure in some of my leagues Mixon won’t go at 9. And it wouldn’t surprise me seeing Henry fall out the top10 certain PPR leagues. All I’m saying is nothing is set in stone, but your example is like the worst case scenario , and you have to be drafting 10th. If it was an earlier pick per say , I wouldn’t mind a Kamara/Sanders pairing . 

 

Excuse me?

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Kenyan Drake

 

Do you plan to take him over the other elite WRs?  If not, where is the earliest you'd reach for him?

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1 minute ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Do you plan to take him over the other elite WRs?  If not, where is the earliest you'd reach for him?

Yes, I would take him over every receiver not named Michael Thomas.

 

Drake will catch 50 or more passes himself.

 

He was incredibly efficient with AZ, he is primed for a big year, I'd say he is a top 10 overall fantasy pick, right there with Mixon.

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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Yes, I would take him over every receiver not named Michael Thomas.

 

Drake will catch 50 or more passes himself.

 

He was incredibly efficient with AZ, he is primed for a big year, I'd say he is a top 10 overall fantasy pick, right there with Mixon.

Pretty much on par with this as well

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Yes, I would take him over every receiver not named Michael Thomas.

 

Drake will catch 50 or more passes himself.

 

He was incredibly efficient with AZ, he is primed for a big year, I'd say he is a top 10 overall fantasy pick, right there with Mixon.

 

Where do you rank Jacobs and Sanders right now?  Would you take either over the elite WRs not named MT?

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Excuse me?


🤣
Question Cleats, do you get notifcations on your phone when King Hendry is mentioned

Edited by RunCMC
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18 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Yes, I would take him over every receiver not named Michael Thomas.

 

Drake will catch 50 or more passes himself.

 

He was incredibly efficient with AZ, he is primed for a big year, I'd say he is a top 10 overall fantasy pick, right there with Mixon.

Is there any player that comes out of Alabama that you don’t think is primed for a big season and a future HOFer?

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Is there any player that comes out of Alabama that you don’t think is primed for a big season and a future HOFer?

 

Yeah

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12 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


🤣
Question Cleats, do you get notifcations on your phone when King Hendry is mentioned

 

More like I can sense it.

 

Hill would be my 2nd receiver off the board behind Thomas.

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