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Tyreek Hill 2020 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, LeeVanCleef said:

I probably missed my window but I'm really contemplating trying to sell Hill in dynasty. There are so many Hill clones and mouths to feed on this team that he's basically going to be a boom or bust player and highly dependent on TDs. And I can't be praying for a long bomb every game. Has been a great ride but I think it's starting to reach its climax and especially with the addition of bell. It's extremely frustrating watching all these plays get called for other guys than Hill. Am I wrong here or are you guys seeing/thinking the same thing?

 

100% right, dude is a bum, window to trade him now is CLOSED unless he has a blow up game.

Drop city.

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2 minutes ago, pdog109 said:

 

100% right, dude is a bum, window to trade him now is CLOSED unless he has a blow up game.

Drop city.

Lol

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1 minute ago, pdog109 said:

 

100% right, dude is a bum, window to trade him now is CLOSED unless he has a blow up game.

Drop city.

LOL. I'm saying missed window for a kings ransom. I could still pull a 1st rd pick but Hill without TDs and minimal targets so far this year and it's gonna be trouble rest of the season.

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25 minutes ago, LeeVanCleef said:

I probably missed my window but I'm really contemplating trying to sell Hill in dynasty. There are so many Hill clones and mouths to feed on this team that he's basically going to be a boom or bust player and highly dependent on TDs. And I can't be praying for a long bomb every game. Has been a great ride but I think it's starting to reach its climax and especially with the addition of bell. It's extremely frustrating watching all these plays get called for other guys than Hill. Am I wrong here or are you guys seeing/thinking the same thing?


Hold off and you’ll get a chance to sell high on him if you want. Now wouldn’t be the time. But I also wouldn’t be looking to trade him if it was me. 
 

Even with this dud he is averaging 69 yards a game and he’s only caught one bomb so far to really boost up that yardage total. This game you can write off as bad game script. They ran all over the Bills, they ran more than any team ever has for Andy in all his years or coaching. Then when they were throwing the ball Hill had White shadowing him who most regard as a top 3 CB. I’d say he’s probably only trailing Gilmore. 
 

His fantasy value this year for sure has been bolstered by the 5 TDS in those first 5 games. Obviously he can’t keep up that pace but he’s always had a nose for the end zone. He got 7 TDS in just 12 games last year and they had misty the same weapons (CEH instead of Williams) 46 TDs through 64 games on his career. 

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3 minutes ago, alleyce said:


Hold off and you’ll get a chance to sell high on him if you want. Now wouldn’t be the time. But I also wouldn’t be looking to trade him if it was me. 
 

Even with this dud he is averaging 69 yards a game and he’s only caught one bomb so far to really boost up that yardage total. This game you can write off as bad game script. They ran all over the Bills, they ran more than any team ever has for Andy in all his years or coaching. Then when they were throwing the ball Hill had White shadowing him who most regard as a top 3 CB. I’d say he’s probably only trailing Gilmore. 
 

His fantasy value this year for sure has been bolstered by the 5 TDS in those first 5 games. Obviously he can’t keep up that pace but he’s always had a nose for the end zone. He got 7 TDS in just 12 games last year and they had misty the same weapons (CEH instead of Williams) 46 TDs through 64 games on his career. 

My thoughts aren't just from the Bills game but from the season as a whole so far. It just seems like they are spreading the ball a lot more and relying on the run as well. Now add in ANOTHER pass catching back and it will take even more targets away from Hill, who I feel is already seeing less volume. The thoughts might be premature but things are definitely starting to change a bit.

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There's the bust game I was afraid of. Still waiting for that boom game...or just any game where he has more than 5 receptions and tops 100 yards. 

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2 hours ago, LeeVanCleef said:

My thoughts aren't just from the Bills game but from the season as a whole so far. It just seems like they are spreading the ball a lot more and relying on the run as well. Now add in ANOTHER pass catching back and it will take even more targets away from Hill, who I feel is already seeing less volume. The thoughts might be premature but things are definitely starting to change a bit.

I think they’re going to try for more balance going forward.  I think the raiders game was an eye opener.  More runs should open up the big plays.  This week they took away the big plays next week it could be different

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10 hours ago, LeeVanCleef said:

My thoughts aren't just from the Bills game but from the season as a whole so far. It just seems like they are spreading the ball a lot more and relying on the run as well. Now add in ANOTHER pass catching back and it will take even more targets away from Hill, who I feel is already seeing less volume. The thoughts might be premature but things are definitely starting to change a bit.


I don’t think your thought process here is wrong. I just wouldn’t sell him after most people just watched what is likely to be his worst game all year. I also think if you were satisfied with him in 2019 your getting basically the same thing this year. 
 

His numbers are right in line with what he gave you last year. The only difference is he is getting slightly more of his work on rushes than he got last year. But last year that was down from the norm for whatever reason. 
 

71.9 yards vs 73 this year.
5.5 touches per game vs 5.33 this year. 
 

I guess if you were hoping for 2018 type numbers I do agree we aren’t likely to get that this year. Hardman getting added in 2019 hurt that ceiling a little because some of those touches would for sure have been Hill.

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so what are we expecting from hill tomorrow on a cold snowy day? if you had WR depth would you consider benching him? seems like another low ceiling type of game unless he lands on the end zone this time if its not the kelce/ceh show

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7 hours ago, dave.zavala89 said:

so what are we expecting from hill tomorrow on a cold snowy day? if you had WR depth would you consider benching him? seems like another low ceiling type of game unless he lands on the end zone this time if its not the kelce/ceh show

Don’t let snow stop you with Hill. It’s more likely to affect DB’s against burner WR’s. One slip and a short catch goes for 80. 

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2 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

Don’t let snow stop you with Hill. It’s more likely to affect DB’s against burner WR’s. One slip and a short catch goes for 80. 

yea that's what i was thinking too -  they could get hill a few carries and jetsweeps  and with the slippery weather....who knows??

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Keep in mind KC and DEN played a snow game in KC last year and the Chiefs waxed the Broncos. Tyreek had 2 TDs in that game. I wouldn’t let some snow scare you off from starting him 

Edited by TeflonDonNewcombe
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TD dependent WR2 with upside?  They don't need him to do anything but run routes and take attention away from everyone else

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There’s 12 receivers that have better numbers?  He’s not going nuts but he’s scored in almost every game.  

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Yeah I don’t think there are 12 WRs I would take over Hill. He isn’t the prototypical fantasy WR1 but he’s still really productive, In 12 games last year he averaged about 75 yards and a little over half a touchdown on roughly 7.5 targets per game (he was also injured for a couple of those so I’m not sure they were 12 full games). He played all 16 games in 2018 and finished with almost 1500 yards and 12 TDs on ~8.5 targets.

 

The yardage is down this year, and he is only averaging 7 targets, but I still think he will have a couple more blowup games... even in the ridiculous 2018 season he still had 7 or fewer targets in half the games. There were 4 multi-TD games where he put up a total of 31 catches on 44 targets for 643 yards and 9 TDs... so 3/4 of his TDs and almost half his yards came in 4 games. Probably won’t get 4 of those this year, but those games are what you draft him for. Keep in mind that he also had lines of 2/51/0, 1/13/0, and 4/46/0. At this point I’m expecting around 1000-1200 yards and 10-12 TDs. Of course I would trade him for one of the elite WR1s, but I think most owners are pretty low on him and I think he’s a hold given what you’re likely to get back. Not a bad buy-low if the owner thinks he is a TD-dependent WR2, but KC does have a lot of mouths to feed

Edited by ilikepieman
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17 hours ago, Rickydragon said:

There’s 12 receivers that have better numbers?  He’s not going nuts but he’s scored in almost every game.  

 

The TDs have been saved him so far this season.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

The TDs have been saved him so far this season.

He’s really fast and really good at running past defenders to the end zone.  Good players score touchdowns.  How is that a bad thing?  Those bubble screens and jet sweeps in the red zone are high leverage opportunities to score and he gets them every game.  

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21 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

He’s really fast and really good at running past defenders to the end zone.  Good players score touchdowns.  How is that a bad thing?  Those bubble screens and jet sweeps in the red zone are high leverage opportunities to score and he gets them every game.  

 

Scoring TDs is obviously never a bad thing but its concerning that he's been propped up by those TDs. When he doesnt score he will give you a dud. The yardage hasnt been there so far this season.

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On 10/19/2020 at 8:26 PM, LeeVanCleef said:

LOL. I'm saying missed window for a kings ransom. I could still pull a 1st rd pick but Hill without TDs and minimal targets so far this year and it's gonna be trouble rest of the season.

Without tds??? 

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Just traded for this dude. KC has so many weapons he hasn’t gotten looked at as much as in the past but he is still producing on an elite offense.

 

Looking at his playoff schedule I think he’ll be one of those guys that can win you a championship when the big dance begins.

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Honestly I miss the old Tyreek Hill, the go for 40 pts one week then 5.. while 14-18 most of the season has been cute. It’s just not the appealing load we all signed up for. 

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