Boudewijn

Julio Jones 2020 Outlook

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In the past 40 years, only a handful of receivers managed 5 or more seasons with 1300+ yards; Julio last season came close to being the only receiver ever to have 6 consecutive 1400 yard seasons (he missed by 6 yards (*)).

02juliojones1-superJumbo.jpg

So Julio is HoF material and a living legend (except he's also the quietest and most modest legend you'll never meet) but on the other hand he's 31, and the chance of him again getting to 1400 is not that high, but say 1200 should not be impossible. 

The one knock on Julio has always been that he doesn't get a lot of TDs; around 1 TD every 200 yd for his career (compared to eg Adams/Hill who get a TD every 120-130 yards). I've been trying to figure out why that is, and I found the following:
- Hill does his most damage around the middle of the field, where he finds the space to go off into the distance and score
- Adams gets more dangerous the closer he gets to the endzone, and especially in the red zone
- Julio on the other hand is extremely effective on his own half and almost half as effective on the opponent's half. 
I don't know yet whether that's also a difference between Mahomes/Rodgers/Ryan, that's for another time.
In any case, in standard then we need to fade him a bit, while in PPR he goes a bit higher.

(*) They really tried to get him to the 1400, but unfortunately his last 3 targets of 2019 were incomplete, including a TD pass that sailed over his head - in the red zone, of course. Bummer.

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3 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

In the past 40 years, only a handful of receivers managed 5 or more seasons with 1300+ yards; Julio last season came close to being the only receiver ever to have 6 consecutive 1400 yard seasons (he missed by 6 yards (*)).

02juliojones1-superJumbo.jpg

So Julio is HoF material and a living legend (except he's also the quietest and most modest legend you'll never meet) but on the other hand he's 31, and the chance of him again getting to 1400 is not that high, but say 1200 should not be impossible. 

The one knock on Julio has always been that he doesn't get a lot of TDs; around 1 TD every 200 yd for his career (compared to eg Adams/Hill who get a TD every 120-130 yards). I've been trying to figure out why that is, and I found the following:
- Hill does his most damage around the middle of the field, where he finds the space to go off into the distance and score
- Adams gets more dangerous the closer he gets to the endzone, and especially in the red zone
- Julio on the other hand is extremely effective on his own half and almost half as effective on the opponent's half. 
I don't know yet whether that's also a difference between Mahomes/Rodgers/Ryan, that's for another time.
In any case, in standard then we need to fade him a bit, while in PPR he goes a bit higher.

(*) They really tried to get him to the 1400, but unfortunately his last 3 targets of 2019 were incomplete, including a TD pass that sailed over his head - in the red zone, of course. Bummer.

 

 

Uh, he is awesome plain an simple.

 

The falcons misuse of him in the red zone is one of the biggest fails in NFL history.

 

He only had double digits TDs once in his HOF career, in 2012.

 

Anyone who watched the falcons saw them purposefully throw away from him in the red zone for years.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

Uh, he is awesome plain an simple.

 

The falcons misuse of him in the red zone is one of the biggest fails in NFL history.

 

He only had double digits TDs once in his HOF career, in 2012.

 

Anyone who watched the falcons saw them purposefully throw away from him in the red zone for years.


It’s been going on for ages, such a shame. If you were to mold the perfect WR , Julio would be it. Part of the reason I fade him alot in drafts, lack of tuddies. Every season you wait for him to blow up on double digit TD’s, and it never happens. I rather grab Ridley few rounds later

Edited by RunCMC
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Posted (edited)

Yea but if you're in leagues with bonus pts on yardage, and some form of ppr he makes up for the lack of tds. I mean those Td days are huge but still the guy is a total monster in the yardage department that's as consistent as it gets so that is why I think hes still so valuable despite the lack of tds.. the lack of rz usage is such a crime 

Edited by Savatage79

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4 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

Uh, he is awesome plain an simple.

 

The falcons misuse of him in the red zone is one of the biggest fails in NFL history.

 

He only had double digits TDs once in his HOF career, in 2012.

 

Anyone who watched the falcons saw them purposefully throw away from him in the red zone for years.


He’s had multiple head coaches and countless OCs and they never use him in the red zone like they should personally I think it’s a Matt Ryan problem. Maybe he just can’t squeeze it in the small passing zones when their in the red zone? Or he is the worst qb on earth at throwing fades? Idk 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:


He’s had multiple head coaches and countless OCs and they never use him in the red zone like they should personally I think it’s a Matt Ryan problem. Maybe he just can’t squeeze it in the small passing zones when their in the red zone? Or he is the worst qb on earth at throwing fades? Idk 

Fades are the worst route in the NFL. Running them is an absolute waste. Near the GL fades have a success rate of 33%. Just awful. 

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7 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

 

Uh, he is awesome plain an simple.

 

The falcons misuse of him in the red zone is one of the biggest fails in NFL history.

 

He only had double digits TDs once in his HOF career, in 2012.

 

Anyone who watched the falcons saw them purposefully throw away from him in the red zone for years.

 

Andre Johnson never cracked 10 tds. Doesnt really me think any less of either guy,

Its a shame Julio got hurt in 2013. Would probably have 3 receiving yards titles.

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18 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Andre Johnson never cracked 10 tds. Doesnt really me think any less of either guy,

Its a shame Julio got hurt in 2013. Would probably have 3 receiving yards titles.

 

I don't know if andre Johnson will make the HOF.

 

Julio will on the 1st ballot. It's just criminal the way they treated him in the red zone throughout his career.

 

The ultimate team guy so he will never complain but I can complain for him. He deserves to have double the career TDs he has now.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Fades are the worst route in the NFL. Running them is an absolute waste. Near the GL fades have a success rate of 33%. Just awful. 


Wow great stat.. Is it a 33% chance with a 6’4” monster and all time great WR tho? I’d assume HOF level guys like Julio, Calvin, Moss probably come down with the ball 50% but im just guessing.

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I don't know if andre Johnson will make the HOF.

 

Julio will on the 1st ballot. It's just criminal the way they treated him in the red zone throughout his career.

 

The ultimate team guy so he will never complain but I can complain for him. He deserves to have double the career TDs he has now.


andre Johnson also had David Carr and Matt schaub throwing him the ball most of his career. Probably would of had more success if he had Matt Ryan his entire career like Julio 

 

Julio wasn’t a team guy when he threatened to hold out for more money... as he should tho, top 3 wr in the game for almost a decade, pay him. 

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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:


Wow great stat.. Is it a 33% chance with a 6’4” monster and all time great WR tho? I’d assume HOF level guys like Julio, Calvin, Moss probably come down with the ball 50% but im just guessing.

Well I’m sure they’d be higher than the league average at a million routes.

A slant is way better to run in the EZ for one of these guys as their big bodies can block the defender. Especially if you combine it with a pick play.

A fade just requires too much. An absolutely perfect throw with perfect timing from the QB and WR. 

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14 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I don't know if andre Johnson will make the HOF.

 

Julio will on the 1st ballot. It's just criminal the way they treated him in the red zone throughout his career.

 

The ultimate team guy so he will never complain but I can complain for him. He deserves to have double the career TDs he has now.

Julio Jones averages about the same TDs per season as Doug Baldwin.

A dude that was a slightly above average WR, 5 10 and 190, and on a run first team.

Just baffling. Matt Ryan is a solid QB to play with as he’s top 5 in yards almost every year but imagine if he had like Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, and a few other QBs. He would average at least double the TDs as you mention. He’d be getting between 12-18 pretty much every year. 

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Right now i have him as my 2nd WR and I really just can't get anyone above him due to that super high floor.   I never have a problem looking at WR's in round one, usually, but this year I'm struggling after Can't Guard Mike.   

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Set and forget. Has the advantage of years of rapport with Ryan and already takes it easy in OTAs. 

Might be has last top-5 season but the division makes it pretty juicy for fantasy potential. 

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Ultra safe floor, high yardage stud, with a limited ceiling. Basically sums up Julio. If your risk averse, and looking for security, he’s your guy. 

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Draft him knowing he’ll come through for you in the playoffs

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Love Julio - always safe and always produces.  Age might start to become a consideration, but WRs tend to last a lot longer than others.  Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith - all continued to put up numbers well beyond 31.  

Could argue Julio at WR2 after MT.  Personally I have Hill, Adams and Hopkins ranked ahead of Julio, but I wouldn't argue anyone who had Julio at WR2.  To me, Hill, Adams and Hopkins offer more TD upside.  I think MT #1 for sure, and then I don't think you can go wrong with any of those next 4 guys.  

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Fading hard on him.... Not interested in an old WR on a mediocre team with a choker QB.

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1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

Fading hard on him.... Not interested in an old WR on a mediocre team with a choker QB.

I think you must be confusing fantasy with reality. For fantasy purposes, Ryan is a great QB to have and the Falcons are a pretty potent offense. Also, Julio is old but not yet antique. He'll be perfectly serviceable for a couple more years - just look at what a guy like Fitzgerald was doing from age 32-34.

If you tell me people will be overpaying for brand name, you got a point, but what Ryan did in the Superbowl 3 millennia ago is irrelevant.

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2 hours ago, Sivaro said:

Fading hard on him.... Not interested in an old WR on a mediocre team with a choker QB.

 

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Julio is a beast, hard to fade him, but he is first round “well all the elite shiny new toys are gone” calibre until he shows otherwise

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