Josh Jacobs 2020 Outlook

[Boudewijn 4,061]

His rookie season was around RB10 up to week 12; can he repeat or improve that? 

Definitely a rookie with impact, despite a fractured shoulder, so that is promising for 2020. Less promising is the lack of inclusion in the receiving game, well below average for RBs:

Despite that he stil got to 262 touches in 13 games (12 in reality), which is an insane workload, especially on a fractured shoulder. This kid is tough. 

I charted Jacobs's usage in the games he played (the chart below excludes the games he didn't play or played partially).

As you can see Jacobs was around 50% of the entire Raiders offense on first down (90% of it rushing). On the further downs, his involvement was reduced a lot and others took over. If the Raiders decide he can be involved more on passing downs then maybe he can increase his touches further, but given the recent additions to the receivers, I doubt that, to be honest.

My prediction for 2020 then is a simple extrapolation: 1400-1500/9 TD rushing, plus 25-30 rec/200 yd/1 TD receiving. If he can do that (and not miss games due to injury), he can be a top-5 RB.

[joshua18 7,009]

Not a three-down RB. Last year was his best chance to finish as an RB1 and he couldn’t handle the bellcow workload before breaking down. Re-signing Jalen Richard and signing Booker tells you they don’t want to give the passing workload to Jacobs. 
 

A solid RB2 being hyped as an RB1 — just like last year.

[Stonej14 638]

4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Not a three-down RB. Last year was his best chance to finish as an RB1 and he couldn’t handle the bellcow workload before breaking down. Re-signing Jalen Richard and signing Booker tells you they don’t want to give the passing workload to Jacobs. 
 

A solid RB2 being hyped as an RB1 — just like last year.

I mean every team needs back ups don’t they? Richard only had 36 receptions last year and booker might be the definition of a JAG. We’ll have to wait till training camp and preseason to see how gruden decides to use him  

[DoYourJob 205]

Loved him as a RB2 last year behind Zeke (he'd occasionally be better). 

I can easily see him being overdrafted as a RB1, especially in PPR formats. I personally wouldn't feel great having Jacobs fulfill that role unless he gets more work in the passing game and can stay healthier. Would be very happy with him as RB2 though. 

[Br0kenB 1,929]

I think he is a very, very good player that will be a top-end RB2. Every indication I get from Vegas is that they don't want him to be a volume guy.

 

Also: THIS is how you make a 2020 Outlook thread. Would dap up IRL.

Edited May 15 by Br0kenB

[dontclapGonorrhea 348]

hoping to land him and drake together at the back end of the 2nd and beginning of the 3rd. Go 3 rb heavy with my position. Jacobs should become more involved within the passing game. He has a year under his belt and hopefully a solid offseason program for what it is.

[PizzaBeerFF 587]

Keeping him. Guy reminds of Lynch. Violent runner. 

[BMcP 8,052]

22 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

hoping to land him and drake together at the back end of the 2nd and beginning of the 3rd. Go 3 rb heavy with my position. Jacobs should become more involved within the passing game. He has a year under his belt and hopefully a solid offseason program for what it is.

All indications are he won’t, sadly, come into much more receiving work.  So odd.

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,589]

1 hour ago, BMcP said:

All indications are he won’t, sadly, come into much more receiving work.  So odd.

 

What indications?

[mocha4313 731]

2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What indications?

Picking a player who projects as a specialist pass catching RB with pretty good draft capital mainly.

Jacobs is still a great runner and assured great volume there, but I don’t see why they’d start throwing to him more this year, especially also considering the WRs they added to bolster downfield passing

Edited May 17 by mocha4313

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,589]

5 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Picking a player who projects as a specialist pass catching RB with pretty good draft capital mainly

 

Gotcha

 

Teams like AZ drafted eno benjamin

 

Chargers drafted Joshua Kelley

 

Are they gonna be dings against Drake and Ekeler respectively?

 

Some guys are brought in for depth and to play different roles, like a joker role. Wildcat QB, designed QB runs, split into the slot, special teams return man. Offers offensive flexibility and of course much needed depth.

 

I just don't see that being an indictment on Jacobs potentially growing more as a receiver this season. Maybe not as much as some would hope but enough to be better at it than last year. 

 

Edited May 17 by DerrickHenrysCleats

[mocha4313 731]

Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Gotcha

 

Teams like AZ drafted eno benjamin

 

Chargers drafted Joshua Kelley

 

Are they gonna be dings against Drake and Ekeler respectively?

 

Some guys are brought in for depth and to play different roles, like a joker role. Wildcat QB, designed QB runs, split into the slot, special teams return man. Offers offensive flexibility and of course much needed depth.

 

I just don't see that being an indictment on him potentially growing more as a receiver this season. Maybe not as much as some would hope but enough to be better at it than last year. 

 

When it comes to WRs and RBs, I tend to draw a line between day 2 and day 3 when it comes to which players are in a team’s long term vision. Maybe a bit arbitrary but there do seem to be differences in hit rates between round 3 and round 4 players. 

Benjamin was a 7th round pick. Kelly is a bit interesting because I do have questions on if Ekeler can handle a full workload, but those would have been there even if Justin Jackson was the guy behind him and they hadn’t taken an RB

The thing though from what I saw in college, Jacobs is a good receiver. I don’t see why they aren’t using him more there. He has the skill

[Rush2112 4,159]

He's gonna eat a lot this year as their only source on offense. 

[BMcP 8,052]

1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

What indications?

Drafting Bowden and signing Richard to a $3.5M contract, mainly.

[dontclapGonorrhea 348]

Sin city is cold and empty. Hopefully Ruggs, Edwards, Wallrus, and company can allow for JJ to flourish. His schedule is a tough one right out of the gate with the first 6 weeks, so hopefully some catches can help his production. I ended up keeping him. 

[PlayTheWaivers 1,803]

2 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Sin city is cold and empty. Hopefully Ruggs, Edwards, Wallrus, and company can allow for JJ to flourish. His schedule is a tough one right out of the gate with the first 6 weeks, so hopefully some catches can help his production. I ended up keeping him. 

 

Starting to get concerned how Jacobs will even get more targets this year. Hopefully they continue the trend of giving the same amount of targets to RB's in year's past, but the addition of all those weapons is pretty concerning for target volume.

They need to phase out Richard big time. 

[Black_Panther 136]

If he is sitting there from about pick 17/18, I’m buying. Sophomore players who had a great rookie season sometimes elevate their game even more in year 2. Don’t forget he carried an injury for like half a season and still did that well.

one thing about more weapons and receiving options - should hopefully mean less focus and stacked boxes on Jacobs. 

[sjm76 746]

I'm not concerned about Jacobs' rushing total as long as he stays healthy but I passed on him after the second round turn in a couple of PPR leagues that I'm in because like others have mentioned, it's questionable how many screen passes he'll see.  I've read coaches say that they want to use him more in the passing game but I'll have to see it to believe it with the wr's, Waller and Richard all there to take targets.

[The G Man 924]

Josh Jacobs said his goal is to catch "at least" 60 passes this season.

Jacobs reeled in 20 passes on a measly 27 targets as a rookie, so he would need a major usage spike on passing downs to accomplish this feat. GM Mike Mayock has already expressed optimism that Jacobs will be more involved in the passing game, but it's so much easier said than done when Jalen Richard is still on the team after inking an extension. Only seven running backs caught 60-plus balls last season. Obviously, if Jacobs is more involved in the passing game, the sky is the limit for him in fantasy. Jacobs could certainly flirt with top-six numbers if he just doubles his receiving output from last year.

ADP Report: As camp news rolls in, check out draft trends in our NFL Draft Guide!

SOURCE: Paul Gutierrez on Twitter

Aug 12, 2020, 1:37 PM ET

[Gohawks 9,524]

2 hours ago, The G Man said:

Josh Jacobs said his goal is to catch "at least" 60 passes this season.

Jacobs reeled in 20 passes on a measly 27 targets as a rookie, so he would need a major usage spike on passing downs to accomplish this feat. GM Mike Mayock has already expressed optimism that Jacobs will be more involved in the passing game, but it's so much easier said than done when Jalen Richard is still on the team after inking an extension. Only seven running backs caught 60-plus balls last season. Obviously, if Jacobs is more involved in the passing game, the sky is the limit for him in fantasy. Jacobs could certainly flirt with top-six numbers if he just doubles his receiving output from last year.

ADP Report: As camp news rolls in, check out draft trends in our NFL Draft Guide!

SOURCE: Paul Gutierrez on Twitter

Aug 12, 2020, 1:37 PM ET

Every year there’s some story about how some two down back has been working hard catching the ball and will become a lot more involved and every year the two down back remains a two down back. 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,589]

27 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Every year there’s some story about how some two down back has been working hard catching the ball and will become a lot more involved and every year the two down back remains a two down back. 

 

Yep, I kinda feel bad for Chris Carson. He seems nice.

[Ryansm11 1,951]

Man, can this kid just snag 40 catches so I can take him top 8? I love everything else about him. 

[Black_Panther 136]

40 catches isn’t really a stretch. He only played 13 games last season and played injured in about half of them and caught 20 balls. We know from college he has the ability to catch. With a little bit of sophomore progression 40 receptions is very attainable and optimistically I think 50 could be within reach.

[Gohawks 9,524]

42 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Yep, I kinda feel bad for Chris Carson. He seems nice.

Carson had as much receptions as Henry and Jacobs combined (technically 1 short). 

[DerrickHenrysCleats 5,589]

8 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Carson had as much receptions as Henry and Jacobs combined (technically 1 short). 

 

And finished behind 1 and barely finished ahead of a rookie RB.

 

Move Jacobs up your boards.

 

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