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mocha4313

Diontae Johnson 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Started his rookie season as the 5th WR on the depth chart and worked up quickly

With Juju getting exposed last year, he flashed some upside and has a chance to step up even more this year

Possible sophomore breakout with Ben back to continue the Steeler WR tradition? Or not yet with Claypool entering the picture?

Edited by mocha4313

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Posted (edited)

I’m drafting him everywhere I can at that 6/7 turn. Let’s keep his draft stock down please haha

Edited by Breesus

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3 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

DJ and Claypool are going to out perform JuJu this year. Put it on the board!!!!

Claypool would be something. He is very interesting but considered on the rawer side. If he outperforms Juju as a rookie Juju is gonna have some problems finding a pay day next offseason. DJ is very possible though IMO

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He looked great as a rookie last season and I am definitely looking to take him at his current ADP. That being said it's pretty bold to think JuJu doesn't put up better numbers with a healthy Ben.

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20 hours ago, sSektor said:

He looked great as a rookie last season and I am definitely looking to take him at his current ADP. That being said it's pretty bold to think JuJu doesn't put up better numbers with a healthy Ben.

Brett bold to assume there will be a healthy Ben lol

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, sSektor said:

He looked great as a rookie last season and I am definitely looking to take him at his current ADP. That being said it's pretty bold to think JuJu doesn't put up better numbers with a healthy Ben.

I definitely think Juju will be better than he was last year, but I am not giving him a pass like others seem to be for last season. Hes he has bad QB play, but so did (For large stretches of the season) DJ Moore, Sutton, Golladay and Allen Robinson. None of them went out and finished behind Taylor Gabriel and Chris Conley or behind a 3rd round rookie (Diontae) on their own team who wasn’t even a starter until week 3.

I am not saying Diontae is better (though I think it is possible he could be) just that it isn’t that far out there that he benefits from better QB play as well

Edited by mocha4313
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Not usually into hype pieces but it was basically written in the stars that Diontae is going to become a stud.

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On 5/16/2020 at 10:11 PM, mocha4313 said:

I definitely think Juju will be better than he was last year, but I am not giving him a pass like others seem to be for last season. Hes he has bad QB play, but so did (For large stretches of the season) DJ Moore, Sutton, Golladay and Allen Robinson. None of them went out and finished behind Taylor Gabriel and Chris Conley or behind a 3rd round rookie (Diontae) on their own team who wasn’t even a starter until week 3.

I am not saying Diontae is better (though I think it is possible he could be) just that it isn’t that far out there that he benefits from better QB play as well


Juju was hurt for a large part of the season and missed 4 games those Wrs did not. 
Also flacco, lock, trubisky we’re not good but they are leaps and bounds better than duck Hodges and and the kid who almost got his head caved in by Myles Garrett. Golladay had Matt Stanford for 8 games before he had his bad qb play and was still pretty good but juju didn’t have Big Ben for 8 quarters. DJ Moore is truly impressive tho I’ll give ya that for sure. 
 

I think dionte is awesome too I think him and juju could both be 1000 yard wrs and keep each other from being elite fantasy wrs but still be great to have. If this is true dionte is obviously the one to draft at value. 
 

 

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On 5/15/2020 at 8:18 PM, Breesus said:

I’m drafting him everywhere I can at that 6/7 turn. Let’s keep his draft stock down please haha

how many teams? that seems a little expensive. should be there in the double digits

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, lolcopter said:

how many teams? that seems a little expensive. should be there in the double digits

12 team. Right now he’s in the 90’s in espn mocks. I pick at the 6/7 turn so I doubt he is there when I come back around for the 8/9. Also depends on your draft position and how you think your league mates view him.

 

I think with the other receivers in that area (Fuller, Hollywood, Gallup, etc) I am most confident in Johnson. Dude has a legit shot at being the team’s #1 option. 

Edited by Breesus
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Posted (edited)

This guy is facinating.

The Steelers had a 1st round grade on him coming out of Toledo when they drafted him #66 overall. As a rookie, he led all NFL wide receivers in separation yards (2.39) and finished the year as the #39 wide receiver in PPR (163.1 points) - all while playing less than two thirds of the available snaps on a Steelers team that passed for only 186 yards and 1.1 TDs per game. The only receiver to outscore him in PPR leagues while playing fewer snaps was Tyreek Hill.

Now Big Ben is back.

In 71 games completed by Ben over the last 6 years, he's averaged 40 throws and 310 yards per game. Following his week 2 injury in 2019, the Steelers attempted only 30 throws per game.

Conservatively, let's say Ben regresses from his usual 40 throws to the league average of 35 and Diontae Johnson's snaps remain the same. One could draw the conclusion that this increase in throws (16.7%) leaves Diontae Johnson with a potential floor of about 190 points (barring injury, yada yada).

If Ben finds a way to chuck the ball 40x per game and Diontae Johnson increases his snap share to match the average of the 38 receivers who finished ahead of him in 2019 (79.5%), we may have ourselves a top 10 WR (~263.5 points).

There are so many other factors to consider, but I'm not gonna overthink this one and miss out on the upside.

Giddy up.

Edited by MrCantaloupe
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Ben had some really positive things to say about him in the preseason last year. The WR coach at the time did as well. He also said something along the lines of DJ will be a star but he needs a year to add some strength then watch out. And I know preseason hype, everyone loves everyone etc but it seemed extra buzzy for him. I’d expect him to have put on a few pounds in the offseason (183 at the combine) to get in the 190-195 range. His ability to separate was always apparent and he’s a playmaker with the ball in his hands.

Scrolling through the game log it looks like after a weird 44% snap game against the Dolphins week 8, he averaged 75%+ (excluding the bloodbath Cleveland game when he got hurt). He should be in the 80% range this year. Maybe Claypool and JuJu cap that some on certain running sets since they’re a lot bigger but he should be in line for a nice uptick in targets as well as quality of targets.

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I'm a HUGE DJ fan - love the talent.  Big Ben has supported multiple top options in the passing game before - Juju & AB - AB & Bryant - AB & Bell.  He gets the balls to his play makers.  Conner can't stay healthy and the other RBs are somewhat mediocre (Samuels/Snell) or a question mark (McFarland).  

For dynasty, I would rank him pretty high.  The high draft capital spent on WRs the last few years add some truth to the rumor the Steelers don't plan on bringing back Juju.  They've drafted DJ, Washington and Claypool all high since drafting Juju.  Going into next season, DJ could be the #1.

For re-draft this year, I think he could return WR2 numbers.  In 0.5 PPR WR2 ranged from 187 points (DJ Moore WR13) to 163 points (Terry McLaurin WR 24).  70-80 receptions, 700-800 Yards and 5-8 TDs would probably land him in that range.  These might even be on the lower end - for example; 33 players caught 70 balls or more - and just about every WR in the top 30 averaged 11-13 YPR.  Guys who were closer to 10 Y/R were slot guys like Crowder, Fitzgerald, Hooper (TE), etc.  DJ played only 8% of snaps in the slot last year so I assume his Y/R will be closer to the other outside WRs, in the 11-13 Y/R range.  Just about all these guys were over 1,000 yards also. 

Long story short, there's opportunity for DJ this year as the #2 WR in Pittsburgh, Big Ben back under center, and a lacking/average running game/running back talent.  Even if Juju gets 150 targets this year, I think DJ is still a good bet for 100+.

 

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4 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

I'm a HUGE DJ fan - love the talent.  Big Ben has supported multiple top options in the passing game before - Juju & AB - AB & Bryant - AB & Bell.  He gets the balls to his play makers.  Conner can't stay healthy and the other RBs are somewhat mediocre (Samuels/Snell) or a question mark (McFarland).  

For dynasty, I would rank him pretty high.  The high draft capital spent on WRs the last few years add some truth to the rumor the Steelers don't plan on bringing back Juju.  They've drafted DJ, Washington and Claypool all high since drafting Juju.  Going into next season, DJ could be the #1.

For re-draft this year, I think he could return WR2 numbers.  In 0.5 PPR WR2 ranged from 187 points (DJ Moore WR13) to 163 points (Terry McLaurin WR 24).  70-80 receptions, 700-800 Yards and 5-8 TDs would probably land him in that range.  These might even be on the lower end - for example; 33 players caught 70 balls or more - and just about every WR in the top 30 averaged 11-13 YPR.  Guys who were closer to 10 Y/R were slot guys like Crowder, Fitzgerald, Hooper (TE), etc.  DJ played only 8% of snaps in the slot last year so I assume his Y/R will be closer to the other outside WRs, in the 11-13 Y/R range.  Just about all these guys were over 1,000 yards also. 

Long story short, there's opportunity for DJ this year as the #2 WR in Pittsburgh, Big Ben back under center, and a lacking/average running game/running back talent.  Even if Juju gets 150 targets this year, I think DJ is still a good bet for 100+.

 

Where did you find the 8% from the slot statistic? I've been looking for information like that.

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Posted (edited)

 

6 minutes ago, MrCantaloupe said:

Where did you find the 8% from the slot statistic? I've been looking for information like that.

playerprofiler.com

If you haven't seen this site before, it's great to get additional information.  No fee/subscription needed - at least for the regular site.

It provides player comps based on profiles and production.  It also highlights unique metrics such as break out age, SPARQ score, college dominator rating, etc.  Not that these stats are the be all end all, but another way to compare guys.

The best part about the site, IMO, is that it goes deeper into analytics and efficiency.  For example, tells you how much average separation a WR would get on his routes, and where that ranked in the league.  Gives you a players air yards, target share, and tons and tons of pretty cool metrics to help tell a better story.  

As another poster mentioned above, you'll see DJ was #1 in the league in target separation at 2.39, meaning he had on average 2.39 yards of separation from the nearest defender while running his routes.

 

Edited by Fort4242
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Great info on this page so far. He’s going to be at least be in the 6-7 round range by draft day

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13 hours ago, Breesus said:

Great info on this page so far. He’s going to be at least be in the 6-7 round range by draft day

 

Looking like the general public is catching onto him, now that Ben's throwing. If Diontae is drafted in the top-30....no value. 

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On 5/18/2020 at 7:27 AM, Stonej14 said:


Juju was hurt for a large part of the season and missed 4 games those Wrs did not. 
Also flacco, lock, trubisky we’re not good but they are leaps and bounds better than duck Hodges and and the kid who almost got his head caved in by Myles Garrett. Golladay had Matt Stanford for 8 games before he had his bad qb play and was still pretty good but juju didn’t have Big Ben for 8 quarters. DJ Moore is truly impressive tho I’ll give ya that for sure. 
 

I think dionte is awesome too I think him and juju could both be 1000 yard wrs and keep each other from being elite fantasy wrs but still be great to have. If this is true dionte is obviously the one to draft at value. 
 

 

Wasn't really talking about Lock. He is great compared to the other QBs these guys had. I am not sure the 2019 versions of Trubisky and Flacco are at all that much better than Mason Rudolph. Sutton also had UDFA Brandon Allen for a few games while Golladay had UDFAs in Driskel and Blough for half the season (during which he took a hit but was still playable)

WR61 in half PPR (on points per game) is simply inexcusable to me

I am not saying he sucks but I do think the WR1 on the Steelers is very much up for grabs this year

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On 5/24/2020 at 3:35 AM, mocha4313 said:

Wasn't really talking about Lock. He is great compared to the other QBs these guys had. I am not sure the 2019 versions of Trubisky and Flacco are at all that much better than Mason Rudolph. Sutton also had UDFA Brandon Allen for a few games while Golladay had UDFAs in Driskel and Blough for half the season (during which he took a hit but was still playable)

WR61 in half PPR (on points per game) is simply inexcusable to me

I am not saying he sucks but I do think the WR1 on the Steelers is very much up for grabs this year


Those guys had good qbs for most of the season and when they lost them they only had a few playable weeks. juju had the worst qb play of them all for 15 weeks and until he got hurt he had playable weeks as well. I mean the Steelers Barely has 3000 passing yards all season with all 3 qbs

trubisky had 3100 by himself in 14.5 games 

Stafford had 2500 yards in 8 games the lions had over 4100 total passing yards this year 

kyle Allen has 3300 yard in 13 games 

flocco had 1800 yards in 8 games and lock had 1000 yards in 5 games. (Sutton actually had better stats with flocco than with lock in every category but probably because they were playing from behind more)

all of these QBs situations were far better than duck Hodges and mason Rudolph. Let alone the fact none of those WRs you mentioned missed 4 full games and played clearly injured for several others. Take 4 games away from any of those guys and they’re  gonna plummet down the rankings, take 4 games and give them duck Hodges and they might be end up the wr61 in ppg

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2 hours ago, isuckatdfs said:

Any worry that ryan switzer has been working out with big ben and not dionate ? 


No.

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On 5/25/2020 at 7:56 PM, Stonej14 said:


Those guys had good qbs for most of the season and when they lost them they only had a few playable weeks. juju had the worst qb play of them all for 15 weeks and until he got hurt he had playable weeks as well. I mean the Steelers Barely has 3000 passing yards all season with all 3 qbs

trubisky had 3100 by himself in 14.5 games 

Stafford had 2500 yards in 8 games the lions had over 4100 total passing yards this year 

kyle Allen has 3300 yard in 13 games 

flocco had 1800 yards in 8 games and lock had 1000 yards in 5 games. (Sutton actually had better stats with flocco than with lock in every category but probably because they were playing from behind more)

all of these QBs situations were far better than duck Hodges and mason Rudolph. Let alone the fact none of those WRs you mentioned missed 4 full games and played clearly injured for several others. Take 4 games away from any of those guys and they’re  gonna plummet down the rankings, take 4 games and give them duck Hodges and they might be end up the wr61 in ppg

Again Stafford is a borderline top 10 QB. He is definitely not who I am talking about when calling out “bad QB play”

And the rankings were points per game—not full season totals. I don’t see how they would change by missed games.

Which of those WRs were outproduced by 3rd round rookies on their own team again? None? Yeah, didn’t think so.

And again I just don’t see how the miniscule difference in suckiness between Rudolph and Brandon Allen/David Blough can excuse Juju for being completely unrosterable while the others were solid WR2s.

Can’t even find an advanced stat that paints him in a positive light: Not like he was getting open consistently and just missed by his QB; his average yards of separation—quite bad at 2.4 yards (click SEP after getting to link in 2nd column from left to see)

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Maybe it’s a fluke that he was worse than Taylor Gabriel—I will not be taking that bet in the 3rd to 4th round.

Everyone seems to hate OBJ right now despite a bad situation (though not as bad as Juju’s) and being hurt even though he got to 1000 yards in a disaster season and is proven as a number 1 option. Not trying to make this about him but Juju—for some reason—gets a special number of excuses for being trash last year

I was super high on him preseason with AB gone and thought he would be a top 3 WR. In my dynasty league I even offered Michael Thomas for a deal centered around Juju—thankfully rejected; but no, WR61 is WR61. As high as I was on him, I won’t make excuses for his awful opening season as the number 1.

He could certainly grow into it by improving as a player—he is young, but I am not assuming for a second that the WR1 spot in Pittsburgh is locked up by a guy who was outproduced by Chris Conley a year ago.

And apparently the Steelers (pretty good evaluators of WRs) seem to agree with me to a point with their plan to let him walk

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 DJohnson seems like a great sleeper pick. I’ve been drafting him in almost every mock as my 5th wr. Seems too good to be true. I am sure when draft comes just prior to season start he won’t be going that low. 

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On 5/18/2020 at 12:01 AM, sSektor said:

 

Not usually into hype pieces but it was basically written in the stars that Diontae is going to become a stud.

Thanks for posting this. It is a great video.

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