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mocha4313

Diontae Johnson 2020 Outlook

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2 hours ago, isuckatdfs said:

my mistake pizza i did not hear that d johnson was there as well

The article just came out today so it is fresh news. I think the players to worry about eating targets are Washington and Claypool. I don’t see how they can keep Claypool out of the line up. 

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5 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

Again Stafford is a borderline top 10 QB. He is definitely not who I am talking about when calling out “bad QB play”

And the rankings were points per game—not full season totals. I don’t see how they would change by missed games.

Which of those WRs were outproduced by 3rd round rookies on their own team again? None? Yeah, didn’t think so.

And again I just don’t see how the miniscule difference in suckiness between Rudolph and Brandon Allen/David Blough can excuse Juju for being completely unrosterable while the others were solid WR2s.

Can’t even find an advanced stat that paints him in a positive light: Not like he was getting open consistently and just missed by his QB; his average yards of separation—quite bad at 2.4 yards (click SEP after getting to link in 2nd column from left to see)

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation

Maybe it’s a fluke that he was worse than Taylor Gabriel—I will not be taking that bet in the 3rd to 4th round.

Everyone seems to hate OBJ right now despite a bad situation (though not as bad as Juju’s) and being hurt even though he got to 1000 yards in a disaster season and is proven as a number 1 option. Not trying to make this about him but Juju—for some reason—gets a special number of excuses for being trash last year

I was super high on him preseason with AB gone and thought he would be a top 3 WR. In my dynasty league I even offered Michael Thomas for a deal centered around Juju—thankfully rejected; but no, WR61 is WR61. As high as I was on him, I won’t make excuses for his awful opening season as the number 1.

He could certainly grow into it by improving as a player—he is young, but I am not assuming for a second that the WR1 spot in Pittsburgh is locked up by a guy who was outproduced by Chris Conley a year ago.

And apparently the Steelers (pretty good evaluators of WRs) seem to agree with me to a point with their plan to let him walk

 

Stafford being a top10 qb play for have a season will boost your ppg stats even if your other 8 games you have a bad qb instead of 12 games with a  bad qb. Or even flacco for 8 games and lock for 5

Juju had 5 good wr1-wr2 games then got hurt and only one of those games was with Big Ben and was against the patriots defense. Yes juju was a dumpster fire at the end and I roster able but he was hurt and with bad qbs and no run game and a good defense not letting games get blown out. But the first half of the season jujus first 5 of 7 games he was playable in every format.

Sutton had one good game with Brandon Allen and one very mediocre game with a TD that saved his fantasy day and Golladay dropped off big time once stafford got hurt he had one good game (great game) in his final 8 games with a couple average games saved by a TD. Obviously we want the fantasy points so the TD will make their ppg look better than his actual play on the field.
 

none of these guys were outplayed by a 3rd round rookie but also none of them were as good as dionte johnson I think we both agree DJ is good. But DJ was also healthy all season and played in every game. Juju was playing hurt for the last half of the season. Playing hurt will affect your athleticism which will not allow you to get as open. 
 

comparing him to obj isn’t fair obj had a decent qb with a great run game and played all season. Yes he was hurt but he is also better than juju outright when both are healthy. 
 

we can agree to disagree man I respect your opinion we just have differing ones. Thanks for the advanced stats Too.

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41 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Stafford being a top10 qb play for have a season will boost your ppg stats even if your other 8 games you have a bad qb instead of 12 games with a  bad qb. Or even flacco for 8 games and lock for 5

Juju had 5 good wr1-wr2 games then got hurt and only one of those games was with Big Ben and was against the patriots defense. Yes juju was a dumpster fire at the end and I roster able but he was hurt and with bad qbs and no run game and a good defense not letting games get blown out. But the first half of the season jujus first 5 of 7 games he was playable in every format.

Sutton had one good game with Brandon Allen and one very mediocre game with a TD that saved his fantasy day and Golladay dropped off big time once stafford got hurt he had one good game (great game) in his final 8 games with a couple average games saved by a TD. Obviously we want the fantasy points so the TD will make their ppg look better than his actual play on the field.
 

none of these guys were outplayed by a 3rd round rookie but also none of them were as good as dionte johnson I think we both agree DJ is good. But DJ was also healthy all season and played in every game. Juju was playing hurt for the last half of the season. Playing hurt will affect your athleticism which will not allow you to get as open. 
 

comparing him to obj isn’t fair obj had a decent qb with a great run game and played all season. Yes he was hurt but he is also better than juju outright when both are healthy. 
 

we can agree to disagree man I respect your opinion we just have differing ones. Thanks for the advanced stats Too.

Sorry if I came off as aggressive. There are some minor areas I disagree here and especially about overall thoughts on Juju but we do both seem to see a lot of value in DJ this year--whether as the Steelers WR2 as you do or as (maybe, potentially) the Steelers' 1 as I do. In the end, those kinds of distinctions don't mean that much from a fantasy perspective until a player leaves (like AB last year)

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odds he clears 120 targets? assuming health and big ben health

any target projections? claypool and washington going to be a factor if diontae and juju are healthy?

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4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

odds he clears 120 targets? assuming health and big ben health

any target projections? claypool and washington going to be a factor if diontae and juju are healthy?

Healthy Ben will sling it. I’d guess he’s easily over 120 and Claypool/Washington don’t create any issues for DJ.

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Posted (edited)

I’m expecting big things from Johnson. He averaged 2.39 yards of separation per target. #1 in the nfl

 

Dude gets open, and has a legit shot at being the #1 on the team 

Edited by Breesus
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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Healthy Ben will sling it. I’d guess he’s easily over 120 and Claypool/Washington don’t create any issues for DJ.

120 targets with same catch %. and half yard bump per catch, puts him at something like 75-77 rec 925 yds (did the the math earlier today). throw in 7ish tds and thats low end ppr wr2 last year. with some upside. going wr40 ppr

Edited by colepenhagen

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3 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

120 targets with same catch %. and half yard bump per catch, puts him at something like 75-77 rec 925 yds (did the the math earlier today). throw in 7ish tds and thats low end ppr wr2 last year. with some upside. going wr40 ppr

I think with Ben his depth of target will go up though the reception numbers might go down a tick as well as catch rate due to depth of target rising and more low% throws

Something like 70 rec, 1000 yards, 7 TDs--also low WR2 in PPR

I expect his ADP will be rising as the season approaches

 

Guy can do some real damage after the catch too

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I agree with most he is a steal right now. By the time the season starts expect his adp to be 5th-6th round. I’d take that, we may get lucky and it stay low without training camp and pre season.

 

Although if I want us to stay lucky I need to refrain from making posts like this 😂

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Ben averages 37-42 attempts per game the past few years. The turd duo from last year averaged less than 32. That’s 80-144 more targets this year! And I’m recalling that, on an admittedly small ish sample, Ben threw the ball closer to that 42 number per game when he was without Bell. The defense is good and that worries me but the defense has usually been good and he’s still slinging it 40x a game. His health and age worries me more as well. So there’s some risk to work through but outside of injury to Ben I don’t see a reason Diontae doesn’t get a significant target bump.

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How does Washington fit in here?  Does he complicate things for Diontae?  

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1 hour ago, gbill2004 said:

How does Washington fit in here?  Does he complicate things for Diontae?  


I like all of Juju, Diontae, Washington, and even Claypool so I’m not sure what to do. Then there’s also the possibility of Eric Ebron getting red zone targets. Hard to predict how this will shake out. 

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3 hours ago, gbill2004 said:

How does Washington fit in here?  Does he complicate things for Diontae?  

literally who

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4 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

literally who

Washington is James Washington, the Steelers' main deep threat.  He had a good year last season but may get lost in the shuffle with JuJu back.  The wr pecking order right now is JuJu, Diontae, the rookie Claypool and then Washington.

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1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

literally who

I guess you don't follow NFL football. 

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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

Washington is James Washington, the Steelers' main deep threat.  He had a good year last season but may get lost in the shuffle with JuJu back.  The wr pecking order right now is JuJu, Diontae, the rookie Claypool and then Washington.

have to agree with hte group think on this one. washington did well with trash qb play and claypool is rookie wr with no preseason thats at best 3rd on the depth chart

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/draft/chase-claypool-james-washington.php?scoring=PPR

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On 8/19/2020 at 9:29 AM, sjm76 said:

Washington is James Washington, the Steelers' main deep threat.  He had a good year last season but may get lost in the shuffle with JuJu back.  The wr pecking order right now is JuJu, Diontae, the rookie Claypool and then Washington.

What's your source on this pecking order?  I like seeing this but how legit is it?

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On 8/19/2020 at 7:24 AM, lolcopter said:

literally who


The Steelers leading WR in 2019. The guy who out produced Diontae Johnson and was more efficient with his targets/touches. Ring a bell?

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30 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

What's your source on this pecking order?  I like seeing this but how legit is it?

I wouldn’t pay to much attention that. Washington was the most productive wr last year. I’d say it’s Juju > DJ > Washington > claypool. 

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Like this guy's price in the mid rounds.  If Ben's healthy odds are Juju is probably the most targeted guy, but this guy could be the Gallup to Juju's Amari Cooper...a much better value.  I don't think Juju is talented enough that he's head and shoulders above Johnson to get the AB target hog treatment.  Johnson is in a spot where he has a legit chance to take over the top role in my mind.  I'm not clamouring for a piece of the Steelers offense, but would definitely feel a lot better with Johnson in round 8+ than Juju in round 4.

And Washington has been off and on throughout his career, he's an interesting dart throw in the late rounds this year, was hyped up last year and the hype machine has cooled off allowing you to get him for next to nothing this year.  I just might do that and see how things shake out.

Also that yards of separation stat that keep's getting brought up; all the guys at the top of the list are tight ends mixed with good and bad receivers (Jimmy Graham was #1 when I looked).  I'm not sure it really tells you all that much or at least something you can use as a positive for this guy (ie. maybe a couple blown coverages and your number skyrockets?).

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I haven't seen much written about Diontae by beat reporters so far. Am I missing the good stuff or has it been a little quiet so far?

I think we are all eagerly awaiting to see how quickly DJ and Big Ben can build their chemistry, so this feels like an important data point out of training camp. 

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35 minutes ago, SvanE42 said:

I haven't seen much written about Diontae by beat reporters so far. Am I missing the good stuff or has it been a little quiet so far?

I think we are all eagerly awaiting to see how quickly DJ and Big Ben can build their chemistry, so this feels like an important data point out of training camp. 

He's been out the last few days with a calf injury. 

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