thebadferret

Marquise Brown 2020 Outlook

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20 hours ago, humanpuck said:

Great buy low candidate, people are sleeping on the KC D, they're good.

 

KC D looked good because Lamar missed 2 TD passes to Hollywood alone.

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4 minutes ago, this guy right here said:

 

6 targets each game.

Fair. Make it 4-6 instead of 3-5. I don't think that changes my overall point. He's the "number one WR", but I don't see many 8 or 9 target games in his future. 

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

Fair. Make it 4-6 instead of 3-5. I don't think that changes my overall point. He's the "number one WR", but I don't see many 8 or 9 target games in his future. 


he doesnt need 8 or 9 to be  good fantasy asset. His targets are worth a lot more than most wrs because a lot of them are deep bombs. Rich Hribar talks about this a lot. 100 targets to locket is equivalent to like 159 for edelman etc.  

 

What Hollywood needs is his qb to not suck and throw him a catchable ball.  6 targets was enough for 25+ pts last night if he even had blake bortles throwing it to him. But unfortunately lamar was worse than that. 

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

The problem isn't Jackson, the problem is volume. Obviously, this is a run-first team but it's not just that. Andrews gets tons of targets. The backs get tons of targets. The other TEs get targets. Hell, Snead still gets targets. 

Marquise Brown is looking like a 3-5 targets per game type player. 

That's going to lead to a lot of 3 for 45 games and the occasional 4 for 100 with a 55 yard TD. 

Relying on that as anything but a desperation dart throw is a problem. 

6 targets every game so far.

Lamar needs to freaking hit him when he beats his man.

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Not enough consistent targets (same as andrews) might be good to see if anyone is high on his ROS outlook and see if you can get a trade. FF is a week to week game and you can't rely on him to give you those points week to week

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3 hours ago, Guwop said:

Not enough consistent targets (same as andrews) might be good to see if anyone is high on his ROS outlook and see if you can get a trade. FF is a week to week game and you can't rely on him to give you those points week to week

 

Classic sell low move.

Not every player on your team is going to be consistent and/or have upside each week. If you drafted M. Brown, you drafted him knowing he can boom or bust at any moment. Pairing him with a WR or two who are more high floor/low ceiling WRs will make it work.

He's going to blow up. Soon. Could be @WASH this week in a game where I have to think Harbaugh wants to get L. Jackson right (after missing Brown deep on a throw that should have been a long TD). WASH front is tough as well. Could see more through the air than usual.

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2 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Classic sell low move.

Not every player on your team is going to be consistent and/or have upside each week. If you drafted M. Brown, you drafted him knowing he can boom or bust at any moment. Pairing him with a WR or two who are more high floor/low ceiling WRs will make it work.

He's going to blow up. Soon. Could be @WASH this week in a game where I have to think Harbaugh wants to get L. Jackson right (after missing Brown deep on a throw that should have been a long TD). WASH front is tough as well. Could see more through the air than usual.

Or the Ravens will just run the ball all game because Washington can't score anyways.

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6 hours ago, Guwop said:

Not enough consistent targets (same as andrews) might be good to see if anyone is high on his ROS outlook and see if you can get a trade. FF is a week to week game and you can't rely on him to give you those points week to week

 

Selling Marquise now would be a mistake. To be honest, I also don't like his season-long prospects as much as I once did, even though I reached for him in the draft. His connection with Lamar just seems off and I'm not sure he'll be more than a deep threat. A nice WR3 who can win you a few weeks but not carry you all season long. But he has WAS, CIN, PHI ahead and I'd bet he'll be fairly valuable by Week 7 and you can decide whether or not to sell before the Ravens play Pittsburgh D and have their week 8 bye (and then play IND, NE, TEN, PIT).

 

29 minutes ago, Cardiak said:

Or the Ravens will just run the ball all game because Washington can't score anyways.

 

I can't see the Ravens running the ball heavily against Washington. After the Chiefs game, they'll prioritize getting their passing game going. They can't rely on their run game to beat tough competition and need to get in sync.

Edited by PhilaFanBoy
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5 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Classic sell low move.

Not every player on your team is going to be consistent and/or have upside each week. If you drafted M. Brown, you drafted him knowing he can boom or bust at any moment. Pairing him with a WR or two who are more high floor/low ceiling WRs will make it work.

He's going to blow up. Soon. Could be @WASH this week in a game where I have to think Harbaugh wants to get L. Jackson right (after missing Brown deep on a throw that should have been a long TD). WASH front is tough as well. Could see more through the air than usual.

 

meh sounds more hopeful than im willing to gamble on ROS and if you have solid, more consistent WRs then you don't need Brown. Especially if you can package him to someone who believes in him more and is willing to trade for a player you have a greater need for. The volume isn't there so if he doesn't get TD then its nearly a bust week. He'll likely have some big weeks sprinkled in there but there are too many other scoring options that can also eat. Missing out on his boom/bust back and forth wont kill your team. If he ends up being a boom player weekly then that would hurt but i'm willing to bet that doesn't happen in this offense. 

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26 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

meh sounds more hopeful than im willing to gamble on ROS and if you have solid, more consistent WRs then you don't need Brown. Especially if you can package him to someone who believes in him more and is willing to trade for a player you have a greater need for. The volume isn't there so if he doesn't get TD then its nearly a bust week. He'll likely have some big weeks sprinkled in there but there are too many other scoring options that can also eat. Missing out on his boom/bust back and forth wont kill your team. If he ends up being a boom player weekly then that would hurt but i'm willing to bet that doesn't happen in this offense. 

Not sure I fully agree with this. He has been getting 6 targets a game.

 

The question is, should we expect Lamar to throw more, or is he always going to have sub-30 passing attempts a game? if he doesn't throw the ball more, I agree, I'd start to worry. But if the KC game showed anything, it's that they can't rely on him to run as much as he does and win games. He's eventually going to have to throw more. If the 6 targets per game becomes say, 7-8... I think Brown will provide enough value for owners.

 

Chances are you drafted him as a WR3 anyway, so the risk of holding is pretty minimal outside of really shallow leagues.

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I'm gonna keep rolling him out in my FLEX - seems like the definition of a boom or bust player but I think he is worth the start most weeks for his ceiling weeks alone.  Unfortunately, some owners may not have the time to wait it out.

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As someone who hyped up and liked Brown probably more than most, I obviously have some worries but I still like him this year.  

The talent is absolutely there, unfortunately for him not the best team for him to consistently show it off, but despite the 2 drops he should have caught last game I'm not concerned with him at all.  In fact, it kind of reminds me of Beckham's game week 1, just a game where both WR and QB were off and the connection wasn't there.  It can only get better.

Any concerns right now would have to do with his usage and the offense.  Brown was never going to be a heavy volume guy, but his skill, big play ability, and the defense having to account for Lamar running puts him in a position where he could legitimately score the most points per target of any receiver.

The hope for Brown was that the offense would throw a little more this year.  His health + no Seth Roberts + a few more attempts this year was hopefully going to be a recipe for 100ish targets.  If he can hit that number, you've probably got a top 20 receiver in year end numbers.  

 

Also Lamar stunk against the Chiefs last year and if it weren't for 2 prayers he threw up that got caught, he would have been under 200 yards passing against them last year in a similar game situation.  Might just be a team that has him figured out right now, I'd happily buy low on Brown if you can right now.

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Context people need to keep in mind:  

Week 1: 100 yds in the first half. Blowout. Barely played second half and got no targets. 
 

Week 2: down week but 5-42 On 6 targets isnt completely awful.  
 

Week 3: Lamar missed him on two throws that cost him ~120 yds and 2 tds.

 

not the start that we all wanted but looks a lot worse than it easily couldve been.  

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17 hours ago, cgu112 said:

Context people need to keep in mind:  

Week 1: 100 yds in the first half. Blowout. Barely played second half and got no targets. 
 

Week 2: down week but 5-42 On 6 targets isnt completely awful.  
 

Week 3: Lamar missed him on two throws that cost him ~120 yds and 2 tds.

 

not the start that we all wanted but looks a lot worse than it easily couldve been.  

 

Here's video of the two misses.

 

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47 minutes ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

 

Here's video of the two misses.

 

Dude needs to hit the dive button 

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1 hour ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

 

Here's video of the two misses.

 

That second throw is just unfathomably bad. Honestly im pretty sure every backup and 3rd string NFL QB couldve easily completed that. 

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4 for 86 on 8 targets today.  I really thought this kid would bust out this year but now I just don't see it.  He's got an inaccurate QB, on a run first team, and not one of the top targets in red zone.  Can't drop him, don't feel confident in starting him, and can't find any interest for a trade.

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Wasn’t he tackled at the one yard line? Almost a really good game...

Hopefully this Baltimore offense can get back on track to where it was last year..

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1 minute ago, Hero202 said:

Wasn’t he tackled at the one yard line? Almost a really good game...

Hopefully this Baltimore offense can get back on track to where it was last year..

yes, he was tackled on the 1 today.  could have been a much bigger game if he got in. 

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WR3/Flex play moving forward. Not enough opportunities and zero red zone chances. 

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Andrews still getting better looks. Bye week flex play otherwise with hopes of a TD

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I heard Lamar just missed him on two more deep bombs v. WFT.  I am going to stick with him a bit longer.

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27 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I heard Lamar just missed him on two more deep bombs v. WFT.  I am going to stick with him a bit longer.

I agree he's still a hold... but with covid and injuries it's getting tough to field a full lineup.  He's close to walking the plank if he doesn't show something more before bye weeks hit.

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