euphoriahbo

Undervalued and Overvalued Fantasy Players

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17 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Go Hawks and anyone else who would like to chime in please, how do you rank these two guys?  Curious to know, do you have a preference?  Can you please add Gurley in your overall assessment since he's appears to be a volume guy as well.

How would you rank them?

 

Opps nevermind....I forgot you started the RB rankings thread and have them ranked already there.  

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23 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

What's wrong with being volume guys in high volume opportunities? I don't care if my RB is going for 20/75/1 or 15/75/1. They're both good options as RB2s which is where they are being drafted. 

 

Because it begs the question if those guys are actually good or not. If they dont receive high volume are they still going to put up points? I doubt many people liked owning guys like Bell, Michel, Montgomery or Freeman in 2019. 

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1 hour ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

qb... Carr is overrated.... Allen under-rated

rb.... Gurley overrated.... sanders

wr... Landry... Metcalf

te.... kittle... waller


Derek Carr is getting drafted? That is overrated. 

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2 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:


Derek Carr is getting drafted? That is overrated. 

They will all be drafted in two months time. 

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37 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Go Hawks and anyone else who would like to chime in please, how do you rank these two guys?  Curious to know, do you have a preference?  Can you please add Gurley in your overall assessment since he's appears to be a volume guy as well.

How would you rank them?

I currently have them all in tier 6 of my RB rankings. In terms of among other RBs:

Gurley - 15

Bell - 17

Johnson - 18

I like all of them as well relative to where their ADPs are likely to land. Gurley obviously has an issue with his knee but he is in a very good offense now and I think he can be fairly productive without having to get a ton of touches. Hell, even last year he almost ended up as an RB1 running behind that horrendous line. Bell and Johnson both are in a similar boat where they may end up being more volume dependent but who cares if you are volume dependent in an offense that is going to give you volume? They have almost no competition and both are built to handle the workload (although Johnson has been questionable as of late). if the talent that we saw in them before comes to the surface again that's even better. 

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On 5/17/2020 at 9:34 AM, Sack Exchange said:

 

austin ekeler, according to fantasyfootballcalculator today, for half-point PPR, is going at 4.02.

i agree with your insight regarding tyrod's propensity to run, however at this ADP, i suggest ekeler is undervalued. 

we can expect ekeler's ADP to climb, but if you're drafting this week ekeler gets a green light at 4.02.

 

if your "overvalue" classification is based on regression in efficiency on a run-first offense, it makes sense. but 1) it's difficult to watch aj brown's tape from last season and not want him on your roster. and 2) at half-point PPR, aj brown's ADP is at 4.12. i love him at that price, and i would take him over gallup and landry (but not woods or metcalf), also in that price range. 

 

 

good point. definitely will change hugely, especially entering june. but if you're drafting this week, according to ffcalculator, here's where we're at in half-PPR with ADP from march to may:

3.07 = lev bell = overvalued. who can say regarding frank gore, but one thing is for sure: you can trust in adam gase to screw you.

4.10 = mark ingram = undervalued. i love jk dobbins in dynasty, but this year it's ingram until the wheels fall off.

4.12 = david montgomery = undervalued. not expecting RB1 here, but the price is right. and i like him.

5.02 = kenyan drake = undervalued. has no business being here. prime candidate to shoot up two rounds next month.

5.07 = robert woods = undervalued. two rounds later than cooper kupp. a great guy to have for your 3rd WR.

 

where is Kenyan going that it is 5.02?

 

Undervalued

Hayden Hurst- TE

Robert Woods- WR

David Johnson- RB

Matt Stafford- QB


Overvalued

Mike Evans- Wr

Kyler Murray- QB

Aaron Jones RB 

Darren Waller TE

 

 

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8 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

qb... Carr is overrated.... Allen under-rated

rb.... Gurley overrated.... sanders

wr... Landry... Metcalf

te.... kittle... waller

Carr could very well lose the job to Mariota, and Josh Allen belongs on that overrated list. 

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27 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

where is Kenyan going that it is 5.02?

Undervalued ... Matt Stafford- QB

fantasyfootballcalculator takes a composite of the main sites (yahoo, espn, cbs, draft, etc.) and lists ADP for the past 30 days. when i posted's drake's 5.01 ADP two days ago (half-PPR), he was at 5.02.  today, drake is at 4.12. i had a draft last week and took drake at 4.10. as we move into june, expect drake to hit round 3 with his ADP settling in early round 3 by july 1st. he's a steal if you're drafting now.

great point about stafford, especially for us who draft QBs in the double-digits. big ben is listed as round 13 , and he's another bounce-back undervalued candidate. note: while the ADP for stafford is in round 10, and for ben round 13, the "expert" consensus ranking place them in round 8 and round 9, respectively. drafting today, double-digit values. but the gap between ADP and consensus will continue to close. mind the gap

please-mind-the-gap-232356.gif 

also like anthony miller, golden tate, and diontae johnson at their current rounds 9-10 price tag -- wouldn't start any of these WRs day 1, but undervalued roster depth with flex potential by october.

giphy.gif 

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@Sack Exchange  idk what’s up with FFC currently- their rankings are BAD right now.   
 

there are some very interesting possibilities for early/best ball drafters currently.    

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8 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

@Sack Exchange  idk what’s up with FFC currently- their rankings are BAD right now.   
 

there are some very interesting possibilities for early/best ball drafters currently.    

it's May so there's like zero actual people on there doing anything, just the normal scripts/bots

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12 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

it's May so there's like zero actual people on there doing anything, just the normal scripts/bots

My degeneracy knows no season 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

@Sack Exchange  idk what’s up with FFC currently- their rankings are BAD right now.   
 

there are some very interesting possibilities for early/best ball drafters currently.    

It's because, unlike Sack Exchange indicated, the ADP values are based on the Mock Drafts done on their website (not pulled in from anywhere else), and does not include picks made by bots (which is fine, but the results will heavily be influenced by the rankings).  Their rankings have Drake very low (RB21), so the bots never pick him and human mock drafters always pick him when he invariably falls based on the poor rankings.

 

If you sort by "times drafted" you can see all of the players that are being drafted way too late due to the website's proprietary rankings (Zeke, Ekeler, Drake, OBJ, JuJu).

 

Right now fantasypros aggregated rankings seem like the most accurate place for current player values.

 

Per their help link: "The  average draft position (ADP) data is derived from the mock draft selections here on Fantasy Football Calculator."

Edited by WEIL3R
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Posted (edited)

I like to use this https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football

There has been a 138 drafts completed but if you filter from April 27th (the Monday after the draft) there have been 64. Anyways Drake's ADP is 17 in those and he just went 14th in my best ball slow draft. I recommend checking their ADP's out as it is from owners putting down $, this past March before the Coronavirus halted baseball I did 4 yahoo leagues and was able to find huge bargains based on NFBC ADP and the odd fade based on Yahoo's ranking being much higher. 

Edited by turner46
Drake went 2nd in rnd 2 so 14 not 13.

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Undervalued WR

- Marvin Jones (as per usual)

- Slayton (if draft capital was higher he'd be going closer to 6th round I think)

- Steven Sims - CRIMINALLY underated imo.  Flashing those AB skills and stupid fast. Will be on all my teams for sure.

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Posted (edited)

This is more from a dynasty/rookie perspective, but I think Antonio Gandy-Golden is currently being undervalued. If Rivera's philosophy stays similar to his past jobs, the Redskins will be airing it out more this year, which isn't a hard mark to beat. Even with Kyle Allen, the Panther's threw an average of 10 more times per game in 2019.

Haskin's ability to grow obviously plays a huge part, but AGG is no stranger to bad QB play. In his last season playing for Liberty (FBS), only 62% of his targets were deemed "catchable." Yet, he still beasted out to the tune of 79-1396-10. Granted, the competition wasn't normally great, but he still looked good against the power 5 teams.

He's got the size WAS lacks in receivers/TE, the skillset to be nasty in the red zone, the speed to beat a lot of NFL corners, and the current staff's 4th rd draft pick to challenge *checks notes* Kelvin Harmon and the recently legally-challenged+1-year-deal Cody Latimer to play the outside with Scary Terry. 

Edited by Jwook
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, turner46 said:

I like to use this https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/football

There has been a 138 drafts completed but if you filter from April 27th (the Monday after the draft) there have been 64. Anyways Drake's ADP is 17 in those and he just went 14th in my best ball slow draft. I recommend checking their ADP's out as it is from owners putting down $, this past March before the Coronavirus halted baseball I did 4 yahoo leagues and was able to find huge bargains based on NFBC ADP and the odd fade based on Yahoo's ranking being much higher. 

That looks useful, though it appears QB's are heavily overvalued compared to other websites so it skews the data a bit.  Still a good reference for comparing rankings by position. Thanks.

Overvalued: Mike Evans - don't trust Brady to feed him enough and deep enough to be a top 20 overall pick

Undervalued: Fournette (unless you're referencing FFCs ADP which has him high...most places have him around 40, which is a steal IMO)

Edited by WEIL3R

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46 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

That looks useful, though it appears QB's are heavily overvalued compared to other websites so it skews the data a bit.  Still a good reference for comparing rankings by position. Thanks.

Overvalued: Mike Evans - don't trust Brady to feed him enough and deep enough to be a top 20 overall pick

Undervalued: Fournette (unless you're referencing FFCs ADP which has him high...most places have him around 40, which is a steal IMO)

 

No problem, yeah my bad currently it is mainly for best ball leagues so great point, currently it's mainly best ball drafts so all QB's are getting drafted but eventually closer to the start of the season you can search by just using 20 round league with FAAB ADP. It is a solid start for checking by positions as you said.

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5 hours ago, Magoo said:

Undervalued WR

- Marvin Jones (as per usual)

- Slayton (if draft capital was higher he'd be going closer to 6th round I think)

- Steven Sims - CRIMINALLY underated imo.  Flashing those AB skills and stupid fast. Will be on all my teams for sure.

Thats what i always thought too but hes been in the league 7 years and only cracked 1000 yards once. It seems like hes out more often than not.

 

Love your other two though, i think they are in for good years

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4 minutes ago, brosephd said:

joe mixon

hunt

singletary

guice

diontae johnson


Who .. what , where, why ? 🤔

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23 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


Who .. what , where, why ? 🤔

 

Looks like an all underrated team to me...aside from Singletary possibly. He already had a hard path to RB2 last year...not sure if Zack Moss helps or hurts if he assumes at the very least the Gore role. 

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3 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Looks like an all underrated team to me...aside from Singletary possibly. He already had a hard path to RB2 last year...not sure if Zack Moss helps or hurts if he assumes at the very least the Gore role. 

Probably helps in that it tamps down his price.

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Posted (edited)

A few undervalued RBs:

1) Armstead - Still think Fournette gets traded this year.

2) Pollard - think he returns borderline flex in PPR esp in blowouts.

3) Chase Edmonds - There is literally zero evidence Drake can handle a full workload over a season. 

4) David Johnson - who cares that he can't run huge ADOT which Watson hasn't had before.

5) Breida - It's not a guarantee he gets hurt right?

6) Guice - it seems his burst and tackle breaking has been completely unaffected by injuries. Top 5 running talent imo.  Think AP could get cut and Gibson is not a threat. Plus it's redraft not dynasty so who cares that he'll have short career in all likelihood.

7) Boston Scott - Thought he looked amazing in spots last year and should get at least 30% of the carries.  

 

Overvalued

Bell, Gurley, Ekeler, Mostert,

Edited by Magoo
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15 hours ago, brosephd said:

joe mixon

hunt

singletary

guice

diontae johnson

yes

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