Sivaro

WR First Strategy for 2020

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2018 could have drafted Conner similarly to Ekeler last year as both had holdouts in front of them, Breida with Mckinnon getting hurt just before many drafts and that year I owned James White everywhere and I touted him here, I wanted 4 weeks(Edelman situation, similar to Conner and Ekeler they were drafted as early season starters with upside) while RB landscape gets more clear and in the case of all 3 you ended up with season long assets.

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1 hour ago, mmcc1029 said:

Why do you love Sony and drafting Defenses in the 8th round? 

 

The point of the WR first theory is to start the runs, be the first at every category you can .  Again, the theory is , if you wait to draft a RB, you must get top 3 at every other category.  In other words.  YOU will lead the pack when it comes to all the other positions.  In truth, in neither draft did I get the No 1 Defense ( San Fran) as the run on defenses started in the 8th. I would have drafted San Fran in the 8th had they been available, securing another #1 seed at another Position.

 

To re-iterate.  You must get a top 3 in all other categories, preferably the top choice.  ( realistically this means M Thomas at WR, San Fran DEF, Kelce or Kittle at TE, and Butker at K.  In most cases I get top 3, and that works for the theorem. 

 

Sony is the starter, and I aim for starters at RB at the 6th pick.  ( He should be good).   You might be surprised at how well this system works out sometimes.

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59 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

(tried to edit original post but it locked)

goofed again, but this pretty much shows why I will NOT be drafting TE early

tTlLKyq.png

 

 

This is a great draft with that method.   NICE JOB!   ( except for no kicker or D showing)

 

That team is hella explosive. I love your picks at RB late, and your TE's really have potential to shine.  I would be worried facing this team in my league.  I do agree with other posters on Dak though. Another QB, even as a back-up would cement this team.   WHERE IS YOUR D?

QB - Dak-    Top 3

WR- Thomas and Godwin  (  These guys could win every week for you)

RB - Mostert and Johnson.   ( Both can put up big numbers)

Flex - AJ Brown  ( Another huge boom possible here)

TE - Kittle  ( Count on him every week in PPR, great numbers!)

DEF - ?

K - ?

 

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50 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

a little better, but I just can't get on board with this strategy. there are basically zero scenarios where I would ever go TE or DEF that high and QB is a stretch too. way too much late round value in those three positions. there is some value to be had in later round RBs, but as with everything you're banking on one or two of those guys rising. would way rather cross reference WR-RB earlier on rather than waiting.

dsB7UfJ.png

 

 

On draft 2, at least you gotta DEF!  

 

I am shocked at the great RB you got so late.   Gurley and Akers should be great for PPR.  But overall I much prefer your first draft . ( you still need a K)

 

QB- Wilson   - Solid but not top 5

WR - Thomas, Thielan  ( Good picks, but is Thielen is a high end WR2)

Flex - Really have good options in either Parker or Allen  ( great choices)

 RB - Gurley, and Mostert  ( both are in RBBC but should be the best on teams) Nice gambles on Akers, Jones, and Howard  ( all your RB picks have potential to be #1 RB's on teams)

TE - Kelce  ( #1 pick)  Excellen and solid back-up in Higbee)

Def  - Dallas  ,   They are solid but not top 5

K -?

 

 

 

What I find most interesting about using this style is how many gems you can find late at RB.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Last year you could have ended up with something like this.

Hopkins

Kelce

Cooper

Godwin

Lockett/Golladay/Dj Moore, Ridley etc...

Ekeler

Singletary

MSanders

some warm bodies while you wait for your rookies/wait for injuries like Hyde, Michel, Barber, Ronald Jones etc... LMurray was a beast for 2 weeks, the 2 rookies eventually became vital parts, Drake was possibly dropped in some leagues etc..

Fun Fact Tim Hightower and CJ Anderson off the street won people fantasy championships, Damien Williams requiring Hunt to kick a girl then a Ware injury won people championships, Jaylen Samuels and Jamaal Williams that same year too, Forsett, Jeremy Hill and CJ Anderson when he was still in the NFL won teams championships as well etc...

I bet if we rewind 1 year everyone would have hated that above team before last season. It's a risky proposition but when it hits it's nearly unbeatable and if you can squeeze into the playoffs which is possible even with terrible RB play you can find some league winners on the wire late in the year usually.

 

You are playing captain hindsight though. I can go back and cherry pick a team using any format you want and make it look good.

 

5RB team you could have ended up with...

 

McCaffrey

Mixon

Aaron Jones

Henry

Ekeler

DJ Moore

Allen Robinson

Lamar Jackson

Etc...

 

Edited by bhawks489
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Miles Sanders never fell to round 8 from what I can recall in my drafts and even then miles sanders was worthless in september. Last year that strategy works if you get ekeler but even he was a low end rb1 when melvin gordon came back most weeks other than the monster jags game. Singletary did not start to be anything until week 6 or 7 last year. Hopkins for his adp last year if you look at the game logs was not worth a round 1 pick last year.

Anyways imagine if you went this way last year and keep in mind i am taking some guys in this order earlier than they were drafted

round 1 dalvin cook (was going in round 2 last year)

round 2 aaron jones (was going late round 2 early round 3 last year)

round 3 derrick henry or chris carson

round 4 austin ekeler or mark ingram

round 5 robert woods 

round 6 john brown (he was going in round 8 to 10 last year from what I remember)

round 7 michael gallup (was going in like round 9 to 10 last year)

round 8 courtland sutton (round 10 wr if i recall)

round 9 mark andrews (I do not recall him being ranked a top 9 te last year so he will be there in round 9 in this revisionist history draft0

round 10 lamar jackson He was not a top 12 qb drafted by adp last year in a lot of my leagues or barely inside top 12 qb drafted)

round 11 austin hooper (Another guy that was a fringe top 12 te drafted at adp last year)

round 12 pats defense

round 13 deebo samuel

round 14 aj brown

round 15 a kicker

This is of course a very best case scenario and assumes no tinkering all season but this team will destroy your zero rb team.

Last year there was 2 rb off waivers all year that had multiple weeks where you could count on them for something 

kenyan drake if the drake owner got angry with owning him and dropped him

raheem mostert.

If you want to include deandre washington when jacobs went down fine count him too. Keep in mind everyone else in most leagues is also targeting those guys when they become available.

Now go look at waiver wire wr last year that helped you out when out there

deebo samuel darius slayton aj brown devante parker dj chark terry mclaurin greg ward hunter renfrow breshar perriman

These are just some wr that ccome to mind there was others as well. 

If you really are advocating for zero wr last year you lose your league. 

The  rb rb rb guy won the league last year if he did not land on james conner and damien williams which sadly I did last year.

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

Miles Sanders never fell to round 8 from what I can recall in my drafts and even then miles sanders was worthless in september. Last year that strategy works if you get ekeler but even he was a low end rb1 when melvin gordon came back most weeks other than the monster jags game. Singletary did not start to be anything until week 6 or 7 last year. Hopkins for his adp last year if you look at the game logs was not worth a round 1 pick last year.

Anyways imagine if you went this way last year and keep in mind i am taking some guys in this order earlier than they were drafted

round 1 dalvin cook (was going in round 2 last year)

round 2 aaron jones (was going late round 2 early round 3 last year)

round 3 derrick henry or chris carson

round 4 austin ekeler or mark ingram

round 5 robert woods 

round 6 john brown (he was going in round 8 to 10 last year from what I remember)

round 7 michael gallup (was going in like round 9 to 10 last year)

round 8 courtland sutton (round 10 wr if i recall)

round 9 mark andrews (I do not recall him being ranked a top 9 te last year so he will be there in round 9 in this revisionist history draft0

round 10 lamar jackson He was not a top 12 qb drafted by adp last year in a lot of my leagues or barely inside top 12 qb drafted)

round 11 austin hooper (Another guy that was a fringe top 12 te drafted at adp last year)

round 12 pats defense

round 13 deebo samuel

round 14 aj brown

round 15 a kicker

This is of course a very best case scenario and assumes no tinkering all season but this team will destroy your zero rb team.

Last year there was 2 rb off waivers all year that had multiple weeks where you could count on them for something 

kenyan drake if the drake owner got angry with owning him and dropped him

raheem mostert.

If you want to include deandre washington when jacobs went down fine count him too. Keep in mind everyone else in most leagues is also targeting those guys when they become available.

Now go look at waiver wire wr last year that helped you out when out there

deebo samuel darius slayton aj brown devante parker dj chark terry mclaurin greg ward hunter renfrow breshar perriman

These are just some wr that ccome to mind there was others as well. 

If you really are advocating for zero wr last year you lose your league. 

The  rb rb rb guy won the league last year if he did not land on james conner and damien williams which sadly I did last year.

 

 

 

I would gladly face yours with my all WR first team.-  Even if you chose the best case scenarios for your picks.    ( FYI- I use a RB first strategy in one league, and the WR first always ends up better)

 My team last year was incredible using this method.

·          

·         QB - Matt Ryan then Tannerhill       ( Had A. Luck before he retired on me) 

·         WR- Thomas , Godwin                    

·         Flex- Sutton or Metcalf

·         TE - Kittle

·         RB -  Sanders, Lindsey

·         DEF - Minn

·         K - Butker

·          

·         I ended up in third, but could have easily won it.  I was right up there with highest scores.    In general you have to be patient.  Most of your picks at RB have to come on late.  It is the long game that this method helps you play.

Edited by Sivaro

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

What I find most interesting about using this style is how many gems you can find late at RB.

Maybe, but it also kinda handicaps your ability to do the same for late WR value since you're so top loaded. I would rather balance RB-WR throughout as that allows you to remain flexible depending on how the board falls. Those were both 10 team drafts too fwiw.

Edited by lolcopter
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1 hour ago, Sivaro said:

I would gladly face yours with my all WR first team.-  Even if you chose the best case scenarios for your picks.    ( FYI- I use a RB first strategy in one league, and the WR first always ends up better)

 My team last year was incredible using this method.

·          

·         QB - Matt Ryan then Tannerhill       ( Had A. Luck before he retired on me) 

·         WR- Thomas , Godwin                    

·         Flex- Sutton or Metcalf

·         TE - Kittle

·         RB -  Sanders, Lindsey

·         DEF - Minn

·         K - Butker

·          

·         I ended up in third, but could have easily won it.  I was right up there with highest scores.    In general you have to be patient.  Most of your picks at RB have to come on late.  It is the long game that this method helps you play.


you nailed 2 breakout rbs late— Lindsay and Sanders.   That’s not normal unless you have a crystal ball 🔮 

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3 hours ago, turner46 said:

Last year you could have ended up with something like this.

Hopkins

Kelce

Cooper

Godwin

Lockett/Golladay/Dj Moore, Ridley etc...

Ekeler

Singletary

MSanders

some warm bodies while you wait for your rookies/wait for injuries like Hyde, Michel, Barber, Ronald Jones etc... LMurray was a beast for 2 weeks, the 2 rookies eventually became vital parts, Drake was possibly dropped in some leagues etc..

Fun Fact Tim Hightower and CJ Anderson off the street won people fantasy championships, Damien Williams requiring Hunt to kick a girl then a Ware injury won people championships, Jaylen Samuels and Jamaal Williams that same year too, Forsett, Jeremy Hill and CJ Anderson when he was still in the NFL won teams championships as well etc...

I bet if we rewind 1 year everyone would have hated that above team before last season. It's a risky proposition but when it hits it's nearly unbeatable and if you can squeeze into the playoffs which is possible even with terrible RB play you can find some league winners on the wire late in the year usually.

 

This makes no sense. “If you drafted absolutely perfectly for this strategy you’d have a good team” thanks Einstein.

 

 

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Strategies like WR/WR/WR/RB/RB/RB/RB can work out well.

However, not drafting RBs for the sake of drafting a QB or TE is stupid and I’ll stick to that no matter what. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:


you nailed 2 breakout rbs late— Lindsay and Sanders.   That’s not normal unless you have a crystal ball 🔮 

 

Akers and K Johnson are in much the same situation.

It is not as hard as you make it out to be.  But yes, you need to know your prospects at the RB position if you pick your first at that position at rounds 6 +

Edited by Sivaro

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32 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

 

Akers and K Johnson are in much the same situation.

It is not as hard as you make it out to be.  But yes, you need to know your prospects at the RB position if you pick your first at that position at rounds 6 +

I understand going WR/WR. However, WHY avoid RBs for 5 rounds? What is the logic behind this.

See, the logic behind going WR/WR is that in early rounds you have extremely safe bets at WR while RBs can be boom or bust anywhere. Now, I personally don't have any rules I stick by but I have done WR/WR as i've mentioned in this thread (in fact my best team ever was WR/WR). For instance, this year the bottom first and early second round is likely to be filled with a bunch of RBs that really aren't worth that high of a pick. So if the choice is between like Jones, Chubb, or Jacobs for example vs Julio/Hill/Adams I will be picking the WRs every time making WR/WR likely.

However, then proceeding to avoid RBs at all costs and just taking TEs and QBs because...reasons isn't a valid strategy. At all. I get doing it for fun just because in some throwaway league or I get doing it if the cards fall in some crazy order (for example you pick 8th and take Hill, at 17 Godwin is there so you take him, for some dumb reason Kittle or Kelce drops to 32, and for some dumber reason your league is super anti QB early so at 41 you get Mahomes or Jackson, and then at 56 you take DK because he dropped). So if in some one in a million scenario plays out where players drop like crazy sure. However, avoiding the most important position in fantasy when there may be players at that position of value is just insane. Like would you REALLY not draft Mixon at 17 if he is there because of going zero RB? Like seriously? 

The first 3 rounds should be drafting the best player available. Period. So if it is RB/RB/RB, WR/WR/WR, RB/TE/QB, or anything else it doesn't matter. After that if your team is crazy out of balance (like WR/WR/WR) you compensate by stacking up on the lacking position(s) or if your team is balanced you continue to draft the best player available. Self imposed rules before you even see the draft play out are just shooting yourself in the foot. 

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Posted (edited)

I hear you!   It is just a strategy.

 The reasoning is about getting a top 5 player at ALL the other positions, and in most cases top 3.   What you really have to study is RB depth.  The rest of the draft is easier as you can go off of consensus ratings. 

I do this in one league for pure fun, and because I like the challenge.

 

If you want my break down ( In general , but subject to whim)

1 -2 picks WR

3rd pick is best  TE

4th pick is best QB

5th - WR or TE

6-7 RB

8 - Def

8-9 RB

10-15 random fills, and I try to get the best kicker.    This leaves my team with top 5 players at every position but RB. 

Try a mock, it is a fun change of pace no matter how you look at it.

 

Edited by Sivaro

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QB in the 4th to me is the worst place to take one.

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Dumbest strategy I've ever seen in FF.

RBs are the most valuable in FF, always draft RBs early. Getting 2 set-and-forget RBs early in the draft is always my goal.

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3 hours ago, euphoriahbo said:

Dumbest strategy I've ever seen in FF.

RBs are the most valuable in FF, always draft RBs early. Getting 2 set-and-forget RBs early in the draft is always my goal.

It's not a bad goal in most formats, but it also depends on what your league mates are doing. If everyone is going RB/RB, then there will be value in the WRs.

Don't fix your strategy too rigidly. Always leave room to take value where it exists. Be aware you're not picking in a vacuum, but against other intelligent individuals.

I think Sivaro mostly intended it as a thought experiment and I think that's the smart thing to do. It's easy enough to discard all ideas and stick with what you know; but keeping an open mind can sometimes being you further.

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Out of boredom I have done way more fantasy pro's mock draft simulations.   I have gone RB, RB, QB, RB and still managed to get pretty decent WR's in my next 3 picks.   I think this year RB's are tool valuable to pass on.    I screwed around with taking WR first and realized i couldn't afford to pass on the RB talent in the early rounds.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

It's not a bad goal in most formats, but it also depends on what your league mates are doing. If everyone is going RB/RB, then there will be value in the WRs.

Don't fix your strategy too rigidly. Always leave room to take value where it exists. Be aware you're not picking in a vacuum, but against other intelligent individuals.

I think Sivaro mostly intended it as a thought experiment and I think that's the smart thing to do. It's easy enough to discard all ideas and stick with what you know; but keeping an open mind can sometimes being you further.

 

You are exactly right.  I use different strategies just for fun. This is what the WR strategy is for me. Although, I have legitimately created powerhouse teams with it.  Over the last 5 years I have created 2 different teams, one RB first and one WR first.  Surprisingly, the WR first team has always outperformed the other.  I am in the playoffs every year with the WR first one. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Sivaro said:

 

You are exactly right.  I use different strategies just for fun. This is what the WR strategy is for me. Although, I have legitimately created powerhouse teams with it.  Over the last 5 years I have created 2 different teams, one RB first and one WR first.  Surprisingly, the WR first team has always outperformed the other.  I am in the playoffs every year with the WR first one. 

 

 

if your in the playoffs every year you pick late anyways. Getting a top 5 back is almost like having 2 players in one. But obviously if your picking late then getting a couple set it and forget wrs is more valuable in my opinion than getting some dicey Low end RB1s that you have to reach for. But obviously if you have a top 2 pick your going saquon or CMC or something like that. I totally agree with your train of thought but I won’t blame anyone for truly believing in a RB and reaching for him. At one point ppl needed to reach for CMC or Derrick henry. 

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RB-RB all the way , unless I’m taking Thomas or Hill . I play in a 0.5 ppr , we start 3WR , 2RB , and everyone always tries to Flex a 3rd RB . My league mates and I just value backs more , been that way since Moses wore short pants. Especially when it comes to trade value, im generalizing but in a nutshell , for example a RB1 you can easily trade to get a WR1.  But you’ll have a tough time swapping a WR1 for a RB1 or even a high end RB2 for that matter. 

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7 hours ago, euphoriahbo said:

Dumbest strategy I've ever seen in FF.

RBs are the most valuable in FF, always draft RBs early. Getting 2 set-and-forget RBs early in the draft is always my goal.

I love when people think that. Just having stud WRs drop. Was fun owning Julio and Brown in 2015.

I don’t see how anyone can take like Mixon over Hill or Adams for example. The goal early in the draft is to get players that won’t be useless. That’s no guarantee with ANY rb. 

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14 hours ago, Sivaro said:

I hear you!   It is just a strategy.

 The reasoning is about getting a top 5 player at ALL the other positions, and in most cases top 3.   What you really have to study is RB depth.  The rest of the draft is easier as you can go off of consensus ratings. 

I do this in one league for pure fun, and because I like the challenge.

 

If you want my break down ( In general , but subject to whim)

1 -2 picks WR

3rd pick is best  TE

4th pick is best QB

5th - WR or TE

6-7 RB

8 - Def

8-9 RB

10-15 random fills, and I try to get the best kicker.    This leaves my team with top 5 players at every position but RB. 

Try a mock, it is a fun change of pace no matter how you look at it.

 

I think we're all just bored and wanting sports and coming up with crazy ideas.  As many have said, it's MUCH harder to find an above average RB than an above average WR.  If you're on the turn and you want to lock up Tyreek/Julio because you're not in love with Josh Jacobs, Ekeler, or Aaron Jones, then fine, that makes absolute sense.  But then to force yourself to pick the best TE in round 3?  In a 14 teamer, that's Mark Andrews, since Kelce and Kittle will be gone if you're picking around pick 40.

Your team will crumble unless some of your RBs hit, but that's just like anything else.  I'd hate to have to rely on a satellite 5-8 touch guy as one of my RBs.  Sure, he might be fantasy gold if the starter is injured?  But if not?  You're looking at a weekly headache.

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RBBC and the overall increase in passing killed zero-RB. 

Zero RB used to have a chance at working because backup RBs would get thrust into workhorse roles when the starter got hurt. Now, starters get replaced by a committee. Also, with the increase in RBBCs, workhorse became so much more valuable that if you miss out on one you have virtually no chance. This, coupled with the increase in the overall depth of the WR position, made the strategy die.

Nowadays the play is to avoid WRs, secure RBs, a top TE, top QB, and load up and rotate WR2/3 types that can be found all the way in the last rounds of the draft.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I love when people think that. Just having stud WRs drop. Was fun owning Julio and Brown in 2015.

I don’t see how anyone can take like Mixon over Hill or Adams for example. The goal early in the draft is to get players that won’t be useless. That’s no guarantee with ANY rb. 

 

 

Just to clarify - I didn't mean use first 2 picks on RBs....but more so: use 2 out of first 3 picks on RBs....or 2 out of first 4 picks on RBs

Basically:

 

After I've made 4 picks, I must, MUST, come away with 2 set-and-forget RBs

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