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Posted (edited)

Might as well make this thread as well... 

For my own personal rankings I really don't feel like writing out the reason for each ranking but there is a reason so ask away if something seems out of wack. Although i'll list out some reasons for rankings below. 

Tier 1:

1) CMC

2) Thicc Thigh Saquon 

Tier 2:

3) Elliot

4) Kamara

5) Cook

Tier 3:

6) Mixon

7) Henry (more like tier 3.5. I think he is clearly ahead of the guys in tier 4 but also clearly below Mixon in half-PPR and PPR)

Tier 4:

8 ) Jacobs

9) Sanders

Tier 5:

10) CEH

11) Drake

Tier 6:

12) Carson

13) Fournette

14) Gurley

15) Ingram

16) Bell

17) Johnson

Tier 7:

18) Gordon 

19) Akers

20) Ekeler

Tier 8 )

21) Conner

22) Singletary

23) Montgomery 

24) Mostert

Couple things:

1. I'm high on Sanders. He has virtually no competition, is in a good offense, and is talented. The 3 horsemen of fantasy success for a back.

2. I'm high on CEH because Williams isn't good.

3. Tier 6 is full of a bunch of guys that are going to dominate GL work and are likely going to get a ton of carries. So that's security I would like from my RB2. 

4. I'm low on Ekeler because Taylor is going to hurt the fantasy production of that offense. In 4 games without Gordon he didn't reach 70 rushing yards once. So good luck depending on receiving work in an offense that won't have much passing volume. 

5. I like Akers for a similar reason as to why I like CEH. Henderson isn't good.

6. It's a lot of tiers because there's a lot of division this year among the position and a lot of gaps. After tier 7 I really don't like anyone. The guys at 21-24 I doubt I would draft them. I honestly rather draft a lot of other guys with upside like Dobbins, Taylor, and Swift for example. I just can't justify putting them above guys with a firm hold on their jobs for now. 

7. Similar with tier 3 to tier 4. Tier 3 I still consider late first early second value. Tier 4 is pretty much all back end 2nd value as I rather have a bunch of WRs there. Tier 6 to 7 is also a fairly steep drop. 

8. These rankings are as of now. RB rankings are really hard to form prior to like August. So it may be kind of early for a thread but never too early to start writing out the landscape. However, a lot is subject to change before the season starts. It wouldn't surprise me if someone like Akers for example vaults himself up 5+ spots if we get news that he is the starter in August. 

 

Edited by Gohawks
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...when you put together RB rankings and forget Aaron Jones.

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3 minutes ago, Rona said:

...when you put together RB rankings and forget Aaron Jones.

Didn't forget him per-say. I had Jacobs in their twice so I removed him when in reality the second one was supposed to be Jones. Specifically remember putting him at #10. 

Tier 5:

10) Jones

11) CEH

12) Drake

So that looks like that and everyone shifts down a spot obviously. 

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Tier 1

CMC

Barkley

 

Tier 2

Zeke

Henry

Kamara

Cook

 

Tier 3

Mixon

Jacobs

Drake

Chubb

Jones

 

Tier 5

CEH

Fournette

Gurley

Johnson

Melvin

Sanders

Ekeler

 

Tier 6

Bell

Carson

Rojo

Taylor

Conner

 

Tier 7

Swift

Singletary

Ingram

Mostert

Akers

then the rest

 

 

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2 minutes ago, sSektor said:

Tier 1

CMC

Barkley

 

Tier 2

Zeke

Henry

Kamara

Cook

 

Tier 3

Mixon

Jacobs

Drake

Chubb

Jones

 

Tier 5

CEH

Fournette

Gurley

Johnson

Melvin

Sanders

Ekeler

 

Tier 6

Bell

Carson

Rojo

Taylor

Conner

 

Tier 7

Swift

Singletary

Ingram

Mostert

Akers

then the rest

 

 

Curious why Drake at 8 but Sanders at 17?

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Just now, Gohawks said:

Curious why Drake at 8 but Sanders at 17?

 

Doug Pederson.

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Just now, sSektor said:

 

Doug Pederson.

That's what I thought as well. Initially, I had him ranked around that spot and then I did some research.

He has been a coach for 4 years and the narrative is that he always uses an RBBC. However, context matters.

2016: Matthews, Sproles, and Smallwood

2017: Blount, Clement, Smallwood, and Sproles. They aquired Ajayi halfway through the season. 

2018 - Smallwood, Adams, Sproles, Clement

2019 - Scott, Sanders, Howard, Sproles

Only one player has received a 50% snap count out of these. Sanders last season. His snap count without Howard? 85%, 84%, 87%, 56%, 71%, 82%, and 31% (left with ankle injury). In the game vs Seattle in the playoffs 70% and you can argue he didn't get as much run as he would without an ankle injury.

During this period Pederson really had 2 RBs that I would consider even average. Smallwood, Adams, and Clement all are not legitimate and capable starter RBs. This is obvious. Sproles is not only old but he is a COP back. You can maybe make an argument for Ajayi but he was so banged up the entire stay that there's nothing to look at and his real talent was always kind of a question. 

However, my points are as follows:

1) They never had a legit RB. Not even close. I remember the same narrative was being spread about Carroll after Lynch left which is absurd. The dude loves his bellcows they just never had anyone close to one until Carson. Pederson is in the same boat. Never had a guy and RBs were always injured.

2) There's already proof that Sanders is a legit bellcow. After Howard left he averaged 76% of the snaps per game (of course removing the one game he left due to injury). It's not like we are going into the season guessing if Pederson will finally give a back the reigns. He has given Sanders the reigns and it's no coincidence he happens to be the first talented back he has had. 

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I expect Swift to have a role week 1, likely, at the very least, the more valuable receiving role, so can’t agree with Kerryon there and no Swift. I put Swift over Kerryon in my starting lineup week 1 as things stand now.

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56 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

I expect Swift to have a role week 1, likely, at the very least, the more valuable receiving role, so can’t agree with Kerryon there and no Swift. I put Swift over Kerryon in my starting lineup week 1 as things stand now.

Thing is, Kerryon is a fairly talented back. I know he was off to a rough start last season from a stats perspective but watching tape he is shifty but also runs with good power. I wouldn't say he is special or anything but definitely above that JAG level. 

I can't say the same for the Rams situation. Brown is a certified JAG that just knows the offense well at this point and from everything i've seen of Henderson he bounces around WAY too much and lacks vision. 

That being said, the Lions spent a high second round pick so obviously they don't view Kerryon as a solution to anything. The Rams also spent a mid second round pick which was actually their first pick of  the draft on a RB. It's clear both teams don't view their current landscape at the position as a solution and I 100% think Swift is more talented than Akers. So you can make a very reasonable claim for Swift. However, I have Akers above him for two reasons still.

1) Just a better offense for him. We know the lead RB for McVay is going to eat. He is a great offensive mind and despite their offense regressing (I mostly blame Goff) it's clear that he is a very good offensive coach and I have no doubt if someone gets a lock on that RB spot they're a guaranteed RB1. Gurley was pretty much on one leg last year running behind a pretty bad line and still almost finished as an RB1. Can't really say the same for the Lions. 

2) Akers just has a much bigger chance of becoming a bellcow for the reasons I mentioned above. Rams don't have anyone legit to compete with him.

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12 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Might as well make this thread as well... 

For my own personal rankings I really don't feel like writing out the reason for each ranking but there is a reason so ask away if something seems out of wack. Although i'll list out some reasons for rankings below. 

Tier 1:

1) CMC

2) Thicc Thigh Saquon 

Tier 2:

3) Elliot

4) Kamara

5) Cook

Tier 3:

6) Mixon

7) Henry (more like tier 3.5. I think he is clearly ahead of the guys in tier 4 but also clearly below Mixon in half-PPR and PPR)

Tier 4:

8 ) Jacobs

9) Sanders

Tier 5:

10) CEH

11) Drake

Tier 6:

12) Carson

13) Fournette

14) Gurley

15) Ingram

16) Bell

17) Johnson

Tier 7:

18) Gordon 

19) Akers

20) Ekeler

Tier 8 )

21) Conner

22) Singletary

23) Montgomery 

24) Mostert

Couple things:

1. I'm high on Sanders. He has virtually no competition, is in a good offense, and is talented. The 3 horsemen of fantasy success for a back.

2. I'm high on CEH because Williams isn't good.

3. Tier 6 is full of a bunch of guys that are going to dominate GL work and are likely going to get a ton of carries. So that's security I would like from my RB2. 

4. I'm low on Ekeler because Taylor is going to hurt the fantasy production of that offense. In 4 games without Gordon he didn't reach 70 rushing yards once. So good luck depending on receiving work in an offense that won't have much passing volume. 

5. I like Akers for a similar reason as to why I like CEH. Henderson isn't good.

6. It's a lot of tiers because there's a lot of division this year among the position and a lot of gaps. After tier 7 I really don't like anyone. The guys at 21-24 I doubt I would draft them. I honestly rather draft a lot of other guys with upside like Dobbins, Taylor, and Swift for example. I just can't justify putting them above guys with a firm hold on their jobs for now. 

7. Similar with tier 3 to tier 4. Tier 3 I still consider late first early second value. Tier 4 is pretty much all back end 2nd value as I rather have a bunch of WRs there. Tier 6 to 7 is also a fairly steep drop. 

8. These rankings are as of now. RB rankings are really hard to form prior to like August. So it may be kind of early for a thread but never too early to start writing out the landscape. However, a lot is subject to change before the season starts. It wouldn't surprise me if someone like Akers for example vaults himself up 5+ spots if we get news that he is the starter in August. 

 

 

Nick Chubb??

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David Johnson should be at the Rb 10-12. The volume alone is going to give him a potentially high out put season. Obviously he needs to stay healthy, but on potential he could finish in the top 7. Until Gurley, passes that physical it is hard for me to draft him. I think the top 7 will finish out like this

1. Barkley

2. CMAC

3. ZEKE

4. Drake

5. Mixon

6. Henry

7. DJ

 

With all the weapons I think Kamara doesn't finish in the top 7 and does Cook make it through the season???

 

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Posted (edited)

The longer the offseason disruption lasts for and the more OTA's are cut into, the higher I'm bumping established guys who know the schemes and pass-blocking (eg Mack) over the rookies (eg Taylor). I'm not going to be overly unhappy drafting a roster full of vets and trying to swing some trades for rookies say week 4-5.

My other observation is that after say Tier 5 (first 10-11 RB's) I think the tiers compress quickly and descend into a huge game of crapshoot and this would be a good year for 0RB *if* the WR market wasn't equally as screwed, so this might be the year I do something crazy like just take BPA throughout 15 rounds in a row. Blimey.

Edited by DeliciousGravy

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7 hours ago, euphoriahbo said:

 

Nick Chubb??

Ok I straight up forgot Chubb. He’s #12.

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2 hours ago, DeliciousGravy said:

The longer the offseason disruption lasts for and the more OTA's are cut into, the higher I'm bumping established guys who know the schemes and pass-blocking (eg Mack) over the rookies (eg Taylor). I'm not going to be overly unhappy drafting a roster full of vets and trying to swing some trades for rookies say week 4-5.

My other observation is that after say Tier 5 (first 10-11 RB's) I think the tiers compress quickly and descend into a huge game of crapshoot and this would be a good year for 0RB *if* the WR market wasn't equally as screwed, so this might be the year I do something crazy like just take BPA throughout 15 rounds in a row. Blimey.

The first 5 RBs (Saquon, CMC, Elliot, Cook, and Kamara) and the first 5 WRs (Thomas, Hill, Godwin, Adams, and Julio) are all REALLY good imo. After that it’s quite a steep drop except maybe Mixon and Henry. Can also make a case for Hopkins but a new team with this corona thing for a WR isn’t for me.

Anyways, picking in the 10-12 slot there’s a good chance you can get two of those WRs. A lot of leagues go RB heavy and Godwin is likely to be there on the turn. Something like Julio/Godwin/Johnson/Gordon to start would be really good. I’d probably take 2 RBs again with the 5th and 6th picks as well to establish depth. Maybe something like Swift and Akers to get that great upside (assuming they don’t rocket up rankings by securing a staring job).

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15 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Thing is, Kerryon is a fairly talented back. I know he was off to a rough start last season from a stats perspective but watching tape he is shifty but also runs with good power. I wouldn't say he is special or anything but definitely above that JAG level. 

I can't say the same for the Rams situation. Brown is a certified JAG that just knows the offense well at this point and from everything i've seen of Henderson he bounces around WAY too much and lacks vision. 

That being said, the Lions spent a high second round pick so obviously they don't view Kerryon as a solution to anything. The Rams also spent a mid second round pick which was actually their first pick of  the draft on a RB. It's clear both teams don't view their current landscape at the position as a solution and I 100% think Swift is more talented than Akers. So you can make a very reasonable claim for Swift. However, I have Akers above him for two reasons still.

1) Just a better offense for him. We know the lead RB for McVay is going to eat. He is a great offensive mind and despite their offense regressing (I mostly blame Goff) it's clear that he is a very good offensive coach and I have no doubt if someone gets a lock on that RB spot they're a guaranteed RB1. Gurley was pretty much on one leg last year running behind a pretty bad line and still almost finished as an RB1. Can't really say the same for the Lions. 

2) Akers just has a much bigger chance of becoming a bellcow for the reasons I mentioned above. Rams don't have anyone legit to compete with him.


 

I’m tempted by Akers for the reasons you list but there are two things that really concern me:

1) halfway through the season last year McVay changed his offense. There was much made of the fact that while Goff and the O Line were a problem, teams were copying Patricia’s defensive plan and stacking 6 (?) guys in the box and this was giving the offense problems as well. Between Goff, the O line and the defensive schemes as well as Cooks leaving not to mention RBBC trends, I wonder if if McVay continues to tinker with the offense and move away from a bell cow approach.

2) There was a good article last year that broke down the fact that since McVay has been HC rookies have not played a big role at any position regardless of draft pedigree. I wish I could still find it. There were a lot of examples and some very good players on the list. If it would be against the grain for McVay to give a rookie a big role it seems unlikely that this would be the year he would break that trend. 
 

Also have to say, I really liked Swift and I want him to be that value pick but I think you have nailed it with him being a committee guy 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The first 5 RBs (Saquon, CMC, Elliot, Cook, and Kamara) and the first 5 WRs (Thomas, Hill, Godwin, Adams, and Julio) are all REALLY good imo. After that it’s quite a steep drop except maybe Mixon and Henry. Can also make a case for Hopkins but a new team with this corona thing for a WR isn’t for me.

Anyways, picking in the 10-12 slot there’s a good chance you can get two of those WRs. A lot of leagues go RB heavy and Godwin is likely to be there on the turn. Something like Julio/Godwin/Johnson/Gordon to start would be really good. I’d probably take 2 RBs again with the 5th and 6th picks as well to establish depth. Maybe something like Swift and Akers to get that great upside (assuming they don’t rocket up rankings by securing a staring job).

 

Wait.....Johnson is David Johnson you'd take in the third?

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23 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Wait.....Johnson is David Johnson you'd take in the third?

I've been burning picks on him for years now why stop now?

That being said, yes and I expect his ADP to settle in as so. Lamar Miller was able to produce as a solid RB2. Everyone knows how O'Brien operates and Johnson is guaranteed carries. I view him as a very safe pick which is exactly what you want going WR/WR.

Who would you target in the 3rd with the above scenario?

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2 hours ago, FreakFries said:


 

I’m tempted by Akers for the reasons you list but there are two things that really concern me:

1) halfway through the season last year McVay changed his offense. There was much made of the fact that while Goff and the O Line were a problem, teams were copying Patricia’s defensive plan and stacking 6 (?) guys in the box and this was giving the offense problems as well. Between Goff, the O line and the defensive schemes as well as Cooks leaving not to mention RBBC trends, I wonder if if McVay continues to tinker with the offense and move away from a bell cow approach.

2) There was a good article last year that broke down the fact that since McVay has been HC rookies have not played a big role at any position regardless of draft pedigree. I wish I could still find it. There were a lot of examples and some very good players on the list. If it would be against the grain for McVay to give a rookie a big role it seems unlikely that this would be the year he would break that trend. 
 

Also have to say, I really liked Swift and I want him to be that value pick but I think you have nailed it with him being a committee guy 

The line was a real problem. The Rams went from 6th to 17th in rushing attempts as well so yes there was a change. That being said, the Rams RB situation last year was one of the most bizarre things i've ever seen with Gurley and his knee. Good coaches adapt to the landscape as the season progresses but i'm sure he would like to run the ball more. After all, that's how they made it to the super bowl. You don't just use your first pick on a RB because you don't want to run more.

You also don't use your first pick on a RB because you don't plan to use him. I don't know how much water that holds especially because he is such a new coach. With Arians sure as he has been doing it forever. Last year Henderson got some real opportunity even splitting snaps with Gurley in a game he just wasn't very good. 

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I've been burning picks on him for years now why stop now?

That being said, yes and I expect his ADP to settle in as so. Lamar Miller was able to produce as a solid RB2. Everyone knows how O'Brien operates and Johnson is guaranteed carries. I view him as a very safe pick which is exactly what you want going WR/WR.

Who would you target in the 3rd with the above scenario?

 

Well according to FFC, Johnson's ADP is in the 4th 4.02 in ppr. Surprisingly Gurley is in the 5th round right now. I'd wait on Gurley, unless you can convince me otherwise. 😁 

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11 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The line was a real problem. The Rams went from 6th to 17th in rushing attempts as well so yes there was a change. That being said, the Rams RB situation last year was one of the most bizarre things i've ever seen with Gurley and his knee. Good coaches adapt to the landscape as the season progresses but i'm sure he would like to run the ball more. After all, that's how they made it to the super bowl. You don't just use your first pick on a RB because you don't want to run more.

You also don't use your first pick on a RB because you don't plan to use him. I don't know how much water that holds especially because he is such a new coach. With Arians sure as he has been doing it forever. Last year Henderson got some real opportunity even splitting snaps with Gurley in a game he just wasn't very good. 


You are tempting me but I’m still very wary. 
 

The Rams RB situation was very strange. Gurley clearly wasn’t right and even though he was getting the “workhorse” role by mid season, he still rarely got 18 or more touches. Malcom Brown is no Gurley but if I remember right he was pretty close to being 2019-Gurley. D Henderson was mostly used when Gurley and/or Brown were banged up which as a combo they were for a fair stretch in the middle of the season last year. When Gurley and Brown were good to go Henderson got almost no work. It’s possible but I can’t believe Henderson was so bad that McVay just threw in the towel on a respectable 3.6 round pick just like that. Especially considering his entire offense was having trouble. Also as I mentioned, McVay also has a record of not giving rookies much playing time.

I expect this is going to be RBBC to start the year and even if Henderson completely face-plants Brown will still get a lot of work a likely the goal line carries as he has been pretty good there. 
 

Hopefully there is a pre-season and we get a few more clues because there is definitely a chance Akers could be “The Guy” by midseason or even sooner.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, FreakFries said:


You are tempting me but I’m still very wary. 
 

The Rams RB situation was very strange. Gurley clearly wasn’t right and even though he was getting the “workhorse” role by mid season, he still rarely got 18 or more touches. Malcom Brown is no Gurley but if I remember right he was pretty close to being 2019-Gurley. D Henderson was mostly used when Gurley and/or Brown were banged up which as a combo they were for a fair stretch in the middle of the season last year. When Gurley and Brown were good to go Henderson got almost no work. It’s possible but I can’t believe Henderson was so bad that McVay just threw in the towel on a respectable 3.6 round pick just like that. Especially considering his entire offense was having trouble. Also as I mentioned, McVay also has a record of not giving rookies much playing time.

I expect this is going to be RBBC to start the year and even if Henderson completely face-plants Brown will still get a lot of work a likely the goal line carries as he has been pretty good there. 
 

Hopefully there is a pre-season and we get a few more clues because there is definitely a chance Akers could be “The Guy” by midseason or even sooner.

Well Akers shouldn’t be drafted as a starter. It’s similar to Sanders last year where you hope he takes over eventually. I would expect his ADP to be in the 65-80 range unless something drastic happens. So at that point you should already have your starting RBs and Akers would be on your bench as you wait for a hopeful breakout.

Him and Swift are both awesome picks in that range. There’s risk but if your 6th round pick flops it’s not the end of the world. They have a lot of upside though and if they’re giving you top 10 RB production come week 8-10 you’re in very good shape. 

Edited by Gohawks
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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The first 5 RBs (Saquon, CMC, Elliot, Cook, and Kamara) and the first 5 WRs (Thomas, Hill, Godwin, Adams, and Julio) are all REALLY good imo. After that it’s quite a steep drop except maybe Mixon and Henry. Can also make a case for Hopkins but a new team with this corona thing for a WR isn’t for me.

Anyways, picking in the 10-12 slot there’s a good chance you can get two of those WRs. A lot of leagues go RB heavy and Godwin is likely to be there on the turn. Something like Julio/Godwin/Johnson/Gordon to start would be really good. I’d probably take 2 RBs again with the 5th and 6th picks as well to establish depth. Maybe something like Swift and Akers to get that great upside (assuming they don’t rocket up rankings by securing a staring job).

The more comprehensive analysis to do this year is whether RB's in rounds 3-6 this year are on-par with their WR colleagues. In previous years I have gone WR heavy in those spots and RB's towards the back end; with so many new backfields and new QBs this year I might re-think that approach.

Which other backfields do you want a part of? I remember a few years ago the Doug Martin/Peyton Barber approach to locking up TB's backfield took a 5th and 8th-round pick I think when Martin had a few game suspension. If I could take Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor with similar picks, or Mostert and someone else in SF, these would be ideal.

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I’m putting a premium on three down backs... leaning more to the situation then pure talent. The match of both is best, of course. Nothing worse then spending a high pick and finding they are in a timeshare. Give me enough touches and targets and things work out. 

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12 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

The more comprehensive analysis to do this year is whether RB's in rounds 3-6 this year are on-par with their WR colleagues. In previous years I have gone WR heavy in those spots and RB's towards the back end; with so many new backfields and new QBs this year I might re-think that approach.

Which other backfields do you want a part of? I remember a few years ago the Doug Martin/Peyton Barber approach to locking up TB's backfield took a 5th and 8th-round pick I think when Martin had a few game suspension. If I could take Marlon Mack and Jonathan Taylor with similar picks, or Mostert and someone else in SF, these would be ideal.


There’s a few of those at a value price you might find tasty

 

Rojo/Vaughn

Kerryon/Swift

Ekeler/JJax or Kelley 

Gurley/Ito 

Mostert/Jerrick?

 

 

 

 

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