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Starting to really look at RBs and not seeing a huge difference between Johnathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift other than a couple of round differences in ADP. Swift’s situation doesn’t look terribly different than Chubb’s actually. There ARE differences but I’m not sure the differences are 5-7 rounds different. 
 

thoughts?

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20 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Starting to really look at RBs and not seeing a huge difference between Johnathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift other than a couple of round differences in ADP. Swift’s situation doesn’t look terribly different than Chubb’s actually. There ARE differences but I’m not sure the differences are 5-7 rounds different. 
 

thoughts?

There’s a couple reasons Swift is a better option. I’d say Taylor’s situation is closer to that of Chubb. 

1. Lions don’t have a guy who would be considered a good 3rd down back and while Swift didn’t have crazy stats reception wise he clearly is a very talented back as a receiver based off tape. There’s no indication that Taylor is or isn’t but it doesn’t matter because Hines pretty much got that job on lock as he’s very capable.

2. Marlon Mack is way better than anything Swift has to compete with. 
 

Yes, 5-7 round difference is a bit much but I’d say there’s a very clear tier gap between them. Not only is Swift competing with less talent but he has way more avenues to get involved in the offense.

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17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

There’s a couple reasons Swift is a better option. I’d say Taylor’s situation is closer to that of Chubb. 

1. Lions don’t have a guy who would be considered a good 3rd down back and while Swift didn’t have crazy stats reception wise he clearly is a very talented back as a receiver based off tape. There’s no indication that Taylor is or isn’t but it doesn’t matter because Hines pretty much got that job on lock as he’s very capable.

2. Marlon Mack is way better than anything Swift has to compete with. 
 

Yes, 5-7 round difference is a bit much but I’d say there’s a very clear tier gap between them. Not only is Swift competing with less talent but he has way more avenues to get involved in the offense.


 

Agree!

 

the crazy thing is Swift’s ADP right now is rounds 6-7 whereas Taylor is 3-4 and Chubb is 1

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, FreakFries said:


 

Agree!

 

the crazy thing is Swift’s ADP right now is rounds 6-7 whereas Taylor is 3-4 and Chubb is 1

Personally I’d draft Swift around the 65-75 range and Taylor around the 85-90 range. As it stands Taylor is one of the most overrated fantasy players in the entire league. Swift is pretty fairly priced. 

Edited by Gohawks
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On 6/9/2020 at 1:57 AM, Gohawks said:

Personally I’d draft Swift around the 65-75 range and Taylor around the 85-90 range. As it stands Taylor is one of the most overrated fantasy players in the entire league. Swift is pretty fairly priced. 

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Tier 1

1. CMC

2. SBarkley

3. EElliot

Tier 2

4. (DCook) - placeholder pending more holdout news

5. AKamara

6. DHenry

Tier 3

7. JMixon

8. NChubb

9. JJacobs

Tier 4

10. MSanders

11. KDrake

Tier 5

12. CEH

13. JConner

14. AJones

15. LFournette

16. CCarson

Tier 6

17. AEkeler

18. JTaylor

19. TGurley

20. CAkers

21. MGordon

22. MIngram

Tier 7

23. DSingletary

24. DGuice

25. DMontgomery

26. DSwift

27. RMostert

28. DJohnson

29. JKDobbins

30. LBell

Tier 8

31. SMichel

32. JHoward

33. KHunt

34. (AMattison) - placeholder pending Cook holdout news

35. MBreida

36. RoJo

37. KVaughn

38. KJohnson

39. MMack

40. DWilliams

41. PLindsay

42. TColeman

43. CEdmonds

44. JJackson

45. AJDillon

46. TPollard

47. RArmstead

48. ZMoss

49. LMurray

50. DHarris

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28 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

Tier 1

1. CMC

2. SBarkley

3. EElliot

Tier 2

4. (DCook) - placeholder pending more holdout news

5. AKamara

6. DHenry

Tier 3

7. JMixon

8. NChubb

9. JJacobs

Tier 4

10. MSanders

11. KDrake

Tier 5

12. CEH

13. JConner

14. AJones

15. LFournette

16. CCarson

Tier 6

17. AEkeler

18. JTaylor

19. TGurley

20. CAkers

21. MGordon

22. MIngram

Tier 7

23. DSingletary

24. DGuice

25. DMontgomery

26. DSwift

27. RMostert

28. DJohnson

29. JKDobbins

30. LBell

Tier 8

31. SMichel

32. JHoward

33. KHunt

34. (AMattison) - placeholder pending Cook holdout news

35. MBreida

36. RoJo

37. KVaughn

38. KJohnson

39. MMack

40. DWilliams

41. PLindsay

42. TColeman

43. CEdmonds

44. JJackson

45. AJDillon

46. TPollard

47. RArmstead

48. ZMoss

49. LMurray

50. DHarris

Reasonable. Some issues.

I'd move Jones from the middle of tier 5 to the end of tier 2. I'd have Conner, Fournette, and Carson in tier 3 or 4 and Drake in 5. I also think the rookies are a bit overrated and I'd swap some things around in the lower tiers, but pretty good list overall. 

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18 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Reasonable. Some issues.

I'd move Jones from the middle of tier 5 to the end of tier 2. I'd have Conner, Fournette, and Carson in tier 3 or 4 and Drake in 5. I also think the rookies are a bit overrated and I'd swap some things around in the lower tiers, but pretty good list overall. 

 

1. Jones scares me - GB doesn't seem committed to him, natural TD regression, & just drafted a RB in round 2.  Could see moving him above Conner but think that's the highest I could go

2. Curious why you're low on Drake?  I have some reservations about him so curious for your thoughts

3. Really disagree with the rookies - I think they're great values right now with the exception of CEH.  Really great RB draft class with good landing spots all around.

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46 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

3. Really disagree with the rookies - I think they're great values right now with the exception of CEH.  Really great RB draft class with good landing spots all around.

I think there were 5 rookies that everyone was enthousiastic about before the draft, but I'm not so sure all of them got a great landing spot:

- CEH and Akers I think have the best spots. 
- Swift has to compete with Kerryon Johnson, who played barely 50% of his 2 seasons, but did get 1380 yards in those games. I think he'll take over that RB1 position, but it wouln't be weird if he has to spit carries, especially in the beginning.
- Taylor has to compete with Mack, who has had 2 1000yd seasons. Not spectacular, but also not bad. Same thing.
- Dobbins has both a vet RB and a QB to compete with. There's not that much space in his rookie season.
So 3 out of those 5 are more interesting for Dynasty than for redraft.

Out of the rest I like the spot of Gibson and Vaughn; La'Mical Perine could get a chance if Bell fails (and Gase gets fired, preferably), and DeeJay Dallas could be immediately relevant due to injuries, but many of the others have a fairly large backfield to plow through before they get to the front of the line . 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

1. Jones scares me - GB doesn't seem committed to him, natural TD regression, & just drafted a RB in round 2.  Could see moving him above Conner but think that's the highest I could go

2. Curious why you're low on Drake?  I have some reservations about him so curious for your thoughts

3. Really disagree with the rookies - I think they're great values right now with the exception of CEH.  Really great RB draft class with good landing spots all around.

1. Even with TD regression, Jones is still a top 8 back. Evidenced by the fact that he would have been top 8 last year even if you took 10 TDs away from him.  He did that last year playing 60% of the snaps. Unless you think Williams and a rookie are going to play the plurality of snaps, Dillon is not a concern.

2. I get the upside with Drake, but there are a lot of concerns. Let's start with the completely forgotten about Chase Edmonds who looked pretty good in his own right when healthy. More importantly, we've just never seen Drake do it as the guy for a whole season, so he has a lot to prove still. 

3. I think Swift might be decent value. CEH might be a star from day one, but I have a hard time paying such a high price for someone who has never played an NFL snap. JT is crazy overrated IMO, and I anticipate a ton of freaking out from his owners when Mack is still the starter. Akers is going to be in a full on committee. Same is likely true of Dobbins.

Edited by ajs723

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25 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I think there were 5 rookies that everyone was enthousiastic about before the draft, but I'm not so sure all of them got a great landing spot:

- CEH and Akers I think have the best spots
- Swift has to compete with Kerryon Johnson, who played barely 50% of his 2 seasons, but did get 1380 yards in those games. I think he'll take over that RB1 position, but it wouln't be weird if he has to spit carries, especially in the beginning.
- Taylor has to compete with Mack, who has had 2 1000yd seasons. Not spectacular, but also not bad. Same thing.
- Dobbins has both a vet RB and a QB to compete with. There's not that much space in his rookie season.
So 3 out of those 5 are more interesting for Dynasty than for redraft.

Out of the rest I like the spot of Gibson and Vaughn; La'Mical Perine could get a chance if Bell fails (and Gase gets fired, preferably), and DeeJay Dallas could be immediately relevant due to injuries, but many of the others have a fairly large backfield to plow through before they get to the front of the line . 

The Rams OL ensures that cannot be anywhere near a "best landing spot" unless you are anticipating volume and a David Montgomery 2019-type "RB2" season

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25 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I think there were 5 rookies that everyone was enthousiastic about before the draft, but I'm not so sure all of them got a great landing spot:

- CEH and Akers I think have the best spots. 
- Swift has to compete with Kerryon Johnson, who played barely 50% of his 2 seasons, but did get 1380 yards in those games. I think he'll take over that RB1 position, but it wouln't be weird if he has to spit carries, especially in the beginning.
- Taylor has to compete with Mack, who has had 2 1000yd seasons. Not spectacular, but also not bad. Same thing.
- Dobbins has both a vet RB and a QB to compete with. There's not that much space in his rookie season.
So 3 out of those 5 are more interesting for Dynasty than for redraft.

Out of the rest I like the spot of Gibson and Vaughn; La'Mical Perine could get a chance if Bell fails (and Gase gets fired, preferably), and DeeJay Dallas could be immediately relevant due to injuries, but many of the others have a fairly large backfield to plow through before they get to the front of the line . 


Agree on CEH and Akers - both fantastic spots.

Taylor has competition but he landed in the perfect scheme for his skill set.  Elite power OL on a team that wants to run the ball.  Mack is a solid runner but not on the level of Taylor and clearly the team feels the same way.  He may start off slow but I can’t see Mack holding him off for too long.  With his upside in that offense, I think Round 4 is a great spot for him.

Swift and Dobbins are similar to Taylor in that they landed in very good offenses but have some competition.  Like Taylor but to a lesser extent, I don’t think the incumbent holds on the entire season.  Upside is easily worth their mid round ADP to me.  Both could be league winners.

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4 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

The Rams OL ensures that cannot be anywhere near a "best landing spot" unless you are anticipating volume and a David Montgomery 2019-type "RB2" season


You’re overestimating our ability to predict OL play year to year.

Just last year we were calling LAR one of the best situations for RBs in the league.

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20 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

1. Even with TD regression, Jones is still a top 8 back. Evidenced by the fact that he would have been top 8 last year even if you took 10 TDs away from him.  He did that last year playing 60% of the snaps. Unless you think Williams and a rookie are going to play the plurality of snaps, Dillon is not a concern.

2. I get the upside with Drake, but there are a lot of concerns. Let's start with the completely forgotten about Chase Edmonds who looked pretty good in his own right when healthy. More importantly, we've just never seen Drake do it as the guy for a whole season, so he has a lot to prove still. 

3. I think Swift might be decent value. CEH might be a star from day one, but I have a hard time paying such a high price for someone who has never played an NFL snap. JT is crazy overrated IMO, and I anticipate a ton of freaking out from his owners when Mack is still the starter. Akers is going to be in a full on committee. Same is likely true of Dobbins.

You really don't think that is even a committee?

Ingram is better and more durable than Mack and has more invested in him from the team, and the Ravens still have LJ as a runner, yet Dobbins is in a "committee" but Taylor is warming benches?

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Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

1. Even with TD regression, Jones is still a top 8 back. Evidenced by the fact that he would have been top 8 last year even if you took 10 TDs away from him.  He did that last year playing 60% of the snaps. Unless you think Williams and a rookie are going to play the plurality of snaps, Dillon is not a concern.

2. I get the upside with Drake, but there are a lot of concerns. Let's start with the completely forgotten about Chase Edmonds who looked pretty good in his own right when healthy. More importantly, we've just never seen Drake do it as the guy for a whole season, so he has a lot to prove still. 

3. I think Swift might be decent value. CEH might be a star from day one, but I have a hard time paying such a high price for someone who has never played an NFL snap. JT is crazy overrated IMO, and I anticipate a ton of freaking out from his owners when Mack is still the starter. Akers is going to be in a full on committee. Same is likely true of Dobbins.


Jones - Td regression was only one of the points I made.  The team doesn’t seem committed to him - insisted on using Jamaal Williams last year and just spent a Round 2 pick on an early downs runner.  I still like Jones given the RB14 ranking but there’s significant risk.

Drake - totally understand your points, he’s probably the scariest top 24 RB to me

Taylor - I talked about him in a previous post above but I can’t see Mack holding him off for very long and his upside is enormous in that offense

Akers - it could be a committee or he could takeover the lead role this year.  In any event, he was drafted to be the workhorse just not sure if it’s this year or next.  
 

I’d much rather take a chance on a high upside guy as my RB2 (Taylor, Akers) than take a perceived high floor player like LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, etc.  Their end of year finished may look fine but I know what it’s like having to start them every week.  If I’m going to win a championship I’m going to have to hit home run at some point in the middle rounds

Edited by Chwf3rd

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:


You’re overestimating our ability to predict OL play year to year.

Just last year we were calling LAR one of the best situations for RBs in the league.

I would be more confident if the Rams had drafted or signed some free agents (besides resigning an ancient and declining Whitworth) to address the loss of Saffold that crippled them a season ago but no--they wasted their picks on a CB that can then screw up their cap and on more skill position talent (since that was obviously the issue last year)

LAR has one thing going for them, and that's that McVay's scheme depends a lot on a dynamic RB to take pressure off Goff.

But really: this just sounds like Akers' college experience. A team with plenty of skill position talent that gives no consideration to the trenches and depends on him to bail them out.

The Rams spent their first pick on an RB despite drafting one last year and needing an OL bad. That tells me two things: a. the Rams are not a very competent organization and b. he should get a lot of volume barring a complete flop.

So yes opportunity wise it is a good spot for a rookie back, but I can't see the upside being very high.

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4 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

I would be more confident if the Rams had drafted or signed some free agents (besides resigning an ancient and declining Whitworth) to address the loss of Saffold that crippled them a season ago but no--they wasted their picks on a CB that can then screw up their cap and on more skill position talent (since that was obviously the issue last year)

LAR has one thing going for them, and that's that McVay's scheme depends a lot on a dynamic RB to take pressure off Goff.

But really: this just sounds like Akers' college experience. A team with plenty of skill position talent that gives no consideration to the trenches and depends on him to bail them out.

The Rams spent their first pick on an RB despite drafting one last year and needing an OL bad. That tells me two things: a. the Rams are not a very competent organization and b. he should get a lot of volume barring a complete flop.

So yes opportunity wise it is a good spot for a rookie back, but I can't see the upside being very high.


Like I said I think we’re pretty crappy at predicting OL play.

Sure I’d feel more comfortable if the Rams upgraded more but having McVay as the play caller eases my concerns.

Plus I love betting on previously elite offenses coming off a down year.  Just 2 years ago the Rams were the Chiefs of the NFC and McVay was the next great offensive mind and now we’re supposed to believe that it’s a bad situation? I’m not buying it

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18 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

You really don't think that is even a committee?

Ingram is better and more durable than Mack and has more invested in him from the team, and the Ravens still have LJ as a runner, yet Dobbins is in a "committee" but Taylor is warming benches?

Not what I meant. It will definitely be a committee with Mack/JT/Hines, but Mack will start which will cause people to lose their minds. Especially if JT shows well in the preseason. 

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4 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:


Like I said I think we’re pretty crappy at predicting OL play.

Sure I’d feel more comfortable if the Rams upgraded more but having McVay as the play caller eases my concerns.

Plus I love betting on previously elite offenses coming off a down year.  Just 2 years ago the Rams were the Chiefs of the NFC and McVay was the next great offensive mind and now we’re supposed to believe that it’s a bad situation? I’m not buying it

Fair, but the Chiefs didn't botch their cap with the Gurley contract, give away their draft picks to go all in with Ramsey or overpay an average QB.

Rams had every opportunity to be in a better spot than they are right now

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16 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:


Jones - Td regression was only one of the points I made.  The team doesn’t seem committed to him - insisted on using Jamaal Williams last year and just spent a Round 2 pick on an early downs runner.  I still like Jones given the RB14 ranking but there’s significant risk.

Drake - totally understand your points, he’s probably the scariest top 24 RB to me

Taylor - I talked about him in a previous post above but I can’t see Mack holding him off for very long and his upside is enormous in that offense

Akers - it could be a committee or he could takeover the lead role this year.  In any event, he was drafted to be the workhorse just not sure if it’s this year or next.  
 

I’d much rather take a chance on a high upside guy as my RB2 (Taylor, Akers) than take a perceived high floor player like LeVeon Bell, David Johnson, etc.  Their end of year finished may look fine but I know what it’s like having to start them every week.  If I’m going to win a championship I’m going to have to hit home run at some point in the middle rounds

Totally get the upside take, and can't really argue against it. 

Jones as RB14 remains ludicrous to me. He was RB2 (again RB8 with 10 TDs taken away) last year with William's taking work away already. Sure, GB doesn't seem committed to Jones long term, but we're talking about this year. They aren't going to bench Jones in favor of Williams and a rookie. Without an injury, it's almost impossible to imagine Jones isn't a top ten back. 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

29d.jpg


Clearly you don’t know a lot of things.  So that isn’t saying much!  What I know is you seem clueless anytime you post.  This was just an easy target!

 

No Chubb, no AJones, No Jonathon Taylor? 

Boston Scott is gonna poach TDs, He had 5 to Sanders 6 in less touches 85 to Sanders 229. 

 

Williams isn’t a bum like you make him out to be.  Backs don’t Avg 4.5 yards a carry if they suck.in fact Williams had more 100 yard games and more TDS in fewer touches than Sanders whom you like so well. Reid loves to rotate backs, so CEH isn’t benching him! Likely 60/40 split. 
 

Eckler is a check down phenom, so Taylor isn’t gonna hurt his value.  In fact it could actually help him with defense having to respect Taylor on design runs and read option. 
 

Akers was never special at Fla.St.  I hope he will produce as I own shares. But I am no way this optimistic year 1. 
 

Jonathon Taylor is going to beast behind that line. Something Mack wasn’t capable of. 
 

Aaron Jones is Due for TD regression, but to not make your rankings is ignorance 

 

 

Explanations are worse than the actual rankings. 

Edited by DallasSooner
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Posted (edited)

Can’t wait till Drake shietes all over these rankings. What a terrible argument .... we haven’t seen him do it for an entire season. Same thing was said of McCaffrey ... we haven’t seen him handle a full-time starter role. Not comparing the talent, just the situation. And Drake is plenty talented 

Also Gurley is going to absolutely kill it... if he stays healthy for the majority of 2020. Bum knee & all I really don’t care, as long as he suits up and gets those GL carries.Cuff that bad boy with Ito Smith and wrap it up. Sow up this Atlanta backfield , because it’s pure fantasy gold. 

Edited by RunCMC
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1 hour ago, DallasSooner said:

Clearly you don’t know a lot of things.  So that isn’t saying much!  What I know is you seem clueless anytime you post.

My, what a pleasant first post. 

Just a heads-up, on this forum respect is not earned by insults, but by knowledge. I think you probably have some of that, so why not show that without the attitude? Also, if you would have had read the thread, you would possibly know that the omissions of Jones and Chubb were already covered.

Good luck.

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1 hour ago, DallasSooner said:


Ive been around here for a while and I constantly see this clown trolling others.  He should probably take this advice more than anyone Else!
 

I read his Excuses. He thinks he covers up well. But the point is his post and explanations were as I said they were. If you are going to initially omit two of the top 15, and give these explanations, maybe you shouldn’t embarrass yourself by posting.  
 

No disrespect, I am not looking for respect here. Read pure ignorance and felt the need to call it out. Nothing more. 

Sigh, you are a literal waste of the energy emitted from my fingers so i'll reply once and let you get back to your miserable hate.

I clearly stated WHY those two were not on my list if you actually managed to read more than the first post. The reasoning was I accidentally removed Jones while editing and Chubb flat out slipped my mind. Jones was addressed on the THIRD POST OF THIS THREAD and Chubb on page one as well. So you didn't even bother to read you came into this thread to form a personal attack and nothing more.

As for trolling, there is only one troll here and it's you. People on this forum get along quite well. You seem to have some personal issue because I insulted your favorite player in a post or something. 

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10 hours ago, RunCMC said:

Can’t wait till Drake shietes all over these rankings. What a terrible argument .... we haven’t seen him do it for an entire season. Same thing was said of McCaffrey ... we haven’t seen him handle a full-time starter role. Not comparing the talent, just the situation. And Drake is plenty talented 

Also Gurley is going to absolutely kill it... if he stays healthy for the majority of 2020. Bum knee & all I really don’t care, as long as he suits up and gets those GL carries.Cuff that bad boy with Ito Smith and wrap it up. Sow up this Atlanta backfield , because it’s pure fantasy gold. 

It's funny, because I agree on both players, but I also don't. I think Drake and Gurley might be the two backs with the widest range of possible outcomes. Both guys are literally capable of being top 5 backs, or being huge disappointments. 

It's the same thing with both guys. Will they get a full workload (Chase Edmonds and Eno Benjamin fit the Arizona system really well too, and Brian Hill/Ito Smith could join a committee), and will they stay healthy. I'm the guy who screams in anger everytime I hear the term injury prone, but Gurley's knees are impossible to ignore. There's no real reason to expect Drake to get hurt, but he's never handled more than a little over 100 carries in a season, so I think it's at least somewhat of a concern.

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