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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

It's funny, because I agree on both players, but I also don't. I think Drake and Gurley might be the two backs with the widest range of possible outcomes. Both guys are literally capable of being top 5 backs, or being huge disappointments. 

It's the same thing with both guys. Will they get a full workload (Chase Edmonds and Eno Benjamin fit the Arizona system really well too, and Brian Hill/Ito Smith could join a committee), and will they stay healthy. I'm the guy who screams in anger everytime I hear the term injury prone, but Gurley's knees are impossible to ignore. There's no real reason to expect Drake to get hurt, but he's never handled more than a little over 100 carries in a season, so I think it's at least somewhat of a concern.


Yeah but it’s the upside that’s so enticing to me, we all know the talent is there. Plus Gurley heading back to Georgia .. I feel like the stars have aligned and he’s going to totally redeem himself ! (Dumb & Dumber voice) 
If Gurley pans out in the 3rd/4th, Ohhh my. 
 

And I kinda like that Drake has so few carries in his pro career. Low mileage is never a bad thing for a running back. Not sure about his collegiate days, but I look at it as a positive. Now I do understand the hesitancy most folks have, the prove it to me first mentality. But his upside is Top5 and he has a chance to absolutely crush his ADP. Not worried in the least about 7th rounder Benji or Chase Edmonds for that matter. It should be more or less what we seen last year, which is perfectly fine by me. 

 

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:


Yeah but it’s the upside that’s so enticing to me, we all know the talent is there. Plus Gurley heading back to Georgia .. I feel like the stars have aligned and he’s going to totally redeem himself ! (Dumb & Dumber voice) 
If Gurley pans out in the 3rd/4th, Ohhh my. 
 

And I kinda like that Drake has so few carries in his pro career. Low mileage is never a bad thing for a running back. Not sure about his collegiate days, but I look at it as a positive. Now I do understand the hesitancy most folks have, the prove it to me first mentality. But his upside is Top5 and he has a chance to absolutely crush his ADP. Not worried in the least about 7th rounder Benji or Chase Edmonds for that matter. It should be more or less what we seen last year, which is perfectly fine by me. 

 

Problem with Drake at this stage is how much upside really is there relative to ADP? He’s already sliding into like the first round in drafts. I just rather take a safer option at that stage of the draft. That’s just me though I prefer to be as risk free as possible in the first few rounds. 

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Problem with Drake at this stage is how much upside really is there relative to ADP? He’s already sliding into like the first round in drafts. I just rather take a safer option at that stage of the draft. That’s just me though I prefer to be as risk free as possible in the first few rounds. 


Like first ... so you mean second than 😉 Basically same thing, I mocked earlier today Drake went 16th overall. Well by now you know my affinity towards drafting RB’s early & often. For me in that situation I’m either going Drake or Sanders. Not a fan of Jacobs or Ekeler, and too early to go CEH. But thats the price you’ll have to pay for Edwards-Helaire services , a late 2nd. It’s early June but we are now seeing plenty of risers & fallers , ADP’s are starting to stabilize. So who are you picking up in that spot (half ppr) ? Not my style to go TE (Kelce) or pay a 2nd rounder for Godwin. Even though he’s a beast and my second favorite wideout after MT (irl) . 

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17 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


Like first ... so you mean second than 😉 Basically same thing, I mocked earlier today Drake went 16th overall. Well by now you know my affinity towards drafting RB’s early & often. For me in that situation I’m either going Drake or Sanders. Not a fan of Jacobs or Ekeler, and too early to go CEH. But thats the price you’ll have to pay for Edwards-Helaire services , a late 2nd. It’s early June but we are now seeing plenty of risers & fallers , ADP’s are starting to stabilize. So who are you picking up in that spot (half ppr) ? Not my style to go TE (Kelce) or pay a 2nd rounder for Godwin. Even though he’s a beast and my second favorite wideout after MT (irl) . 

Interesting question. I suppose the answer would mean I need to have 17 people ranked ahead of Drake. So the guys i have ranked ahead of Drake are? 

Barkley, CMC, Kamara, Elliot, Cook (for now), Mixon, Henry, Jacobs, Sanders, CEH, A. Jones, Thomas, Hill, Godwin, J. Jones, and Adams. So I suppose Drake JUST misses that cut. However, obviously no draft will fall like that so most likely I would not take him until at least early 20s. 

You can make a case for him ahead of some of those guys for sure. So I suppose I see the merit in having him ranked higher than that. Sanders, CEH, Jones, and Jacobs all can be behind him based on factors you value the most. You state you are very anti WR early on which is fair enough so you can slide him up as well against some of those guys. Personally, i'm just not a fan of drafting RBs in the first 15 picks with like half a season of true success under their belt. If Drake beasts so be it. Wouldn't be surprising at all.  

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8 minutes ago, DallasSooner said:


Dude is a Straight up bully here and most don’t say a thing about it.  I come in and speak the truth And somehow I don’t show respect to you?    Go to the 2020 bold predictions and tell me how many times he calls someone delusional. And you think ignorant is worse than delusional?  This guy goes unchecked here daily.  And for some reason it’s brushed under the rug.  I am new posting, but have been here for close to a decade reading threads, looking up IDP depth charts, and reading rookie reviews, etc.. and I’m somehow the problem for calling out what some of you should have years ago.  SMH.

 

 

Really? What rookies did you get to at that time? Whatever time period that was

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4 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Really? What rookies did you get to at that time? Whatever time period that was


Navigate this site. There is a ton of info to find.  Simply go to the player name search bar for a rookie LB or DE and you can find 40 times and adjusted SPARQ athleticism. Most of the depth charts don’t have the sleeper rookies so you have to search for them that way.

 

17 year 16 team lDP dynasty league with 35 man rosters and 12am taxi squads.  Been doing this research on defense players here for as long as I can remember.  
 

Name a year and I’ll go to MFL and I’ll tell you who I drafted.  This year on defense I took flyers on Jacob Phillips, ILB for Cleveland from LSU  and Brandon Jones Miami Safety from Texas, as well as Troy Dye Minn LB from Oregon.  The early round guys are easy to sift through. It’s the later rounds where the research makes a difference. 

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6 hours ago, ajs723 said:

It's funny, because I agree on both players, but I also don't. I think Drake and Gurley might be the two backs with the widest range of possible outcomes. Both guys are literally capable of being top 5 backs, or being huge disappointments. 

It's the same thing with both guys. Will they get a full workload (Chase Edmonds and Eno Benjamin fit the Arizona system really well too, and Brian Hill/Ito Smith could join a committee), and will they stay healthy. I'm the guy who screams in anger everytime I hear the term injury prone, but Gurley's knees are impossible to ignore. There's no real reason to expect Drake to get hurt, but he's never handled more than a little over 100 carries in a season, so I think it's at least somewhat of a concern.

 

I actually don't think Gurley is very boom/bust.

Most likely outcome is just like last year - year end numbers put him as a mid RB2 but you'll be looking for a replacement all year, starting the backup to whatever starting RB gets hurt that week.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

Interesting question. I suppose the answer would mean I need to have 17 people ranked ahead of Drake. So the guys i have ranked ahead of Drake are? 

Barkley, CMC, Kamara, Elliot, Cook (for now), Mixon, Henry, Jacobs, Sanders, CEH, A. Jones, Thomas, Hill, Godwin, J. Jones, and Adams. So I suppose Drake JUST misses that cut. However, obviously no draft will fall like that so most likely I would not take him until at least early 20s. 

You can make a case for him ahead of some of those guys for sure. So I suppose I see the merit in having him ranked higher than that. Sanders, CEH, Jones, and Jacobs all can be behind him based on factors you value the most. You state you are very anti WR early on which is fair enough so you can slide him up as well against some of those guys. Personally, i'm just not a fan of drafting RBs in the first 15 picks with like half a season of true success under their belt. If Drake beasts so be it. Wouldn't be surprising at all.  


You misunderstood brodie , what idiot is going to pick Drake over CMC, Barkley, etc. The Top10 are basically gone & then some. This is your 2nd pick , you see what I’m getting at. So basically I’m looking at either Drake or Sanders at that point. I already have Zeke or Kamara as my first draft pick; or Henry whatever.  All my leagues I play in are 10ers 

Edited by RunCMC

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15 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I actually don't think Gurley is very boom/bust.

Most likely outcome is just like last year - year end numbers put him as a mid RB2 but you'll be looking for a replacement all year, starting the backup to whatever starting RB gets hurt that week.

People really didn’t like Gurley because he was drafted in the first round or early second in almost every draft. The expectations then get skewed because all you hear is complaining when in reality is much different.

In PPR he had 11/14 double digit weeks. 8/14 were 15+ and a solid 4/14 were 20+. So in reality he was very serviceable as a starting RB2 no matter how you cut it. People just took him as their #1 in most cases and got so caught up on his knee and Brown splitting series early on that revisionist history makes him seem like a bad fantasy asset. Happens all the time when a guy doesn’t deliver on his ADP so his underperformance becomes exaggerated. 

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Big blow to Miles Sanders today with the team losing Brooks.

Drake will finish top 3

my top 10 as they finish the 2020
 

 CMC

 Drake
Barkely

Zeke

Mixon

Kamara

Jacobs

Cook

Henry

Jones/Chubb/Sanders

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Looking at last years top 10, Fournette is the most likely to drop.  From week 9 -17, drake was top 4, but I see Barkley surpassing him.

 

another interesting note, from week 9 - 17, Aaron Jones slides from 2 to 8. 
 

eckler was strong all year even with Gordon there.  I see some regression, but not outside top 12. 
 

I also think Mixon is fools gold.  I’m a Sooner fan, so I love him.  But I see that D being horrible taking the rushing game out of the game plan before halftime.  If he beasts it will be receptions. You simply want more than 8 TDS from your top pick. So It’s a easy pass for me in Mixon. 

Edited by DallasSooner
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Welcome to the posting part of the boards @DallasSooner...it is both good and important to have new active posters around here, esp ones that bring insight and numbers to back up there opinions. As you have undoubtedly seen there are some that roll with spicier takes than others, and it makes for interesting discussions from time to time.

It would be nice if the staff in Cincy showed a tad more interest in utilizing Mixon as the unreal pass catcher he is, guy could legitimately play a feature slot receiver role imo. With a rebuilt but likely meh defense and Burrow onboard now, I hope we see a lot more receptions out of Mixon this year--as well as 70% of the rushing work. My early lean is that he can be a profitable RB1.

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The Brooks injury will hurt the Eagles for sure, should project a slight less ppg total overall for the team. Brooks is an amazing lineman.

 

It doesn’t change my view on Sanders really at all though. Dude should see plenty of targets and receptions out of the backfield. Eagles were the #1 graded run blocking o-line last year per pff (I know not the best evaluation) but it still means something. So I think they can weather this storm

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42 minutes ago, Breesus said:

The Brooks injury will hurt the Eagles for sure, should project a slight less ppg total overall for the team. Brooks is an amazing lineman.

 

It doesn’t change my view on Sanders really at all though. Dude should see plenty of targets and receptions out of the backfield. Eagles were the #1 graded run blocking o-line last year per pff (I know not the best evaluation) but it still means something. So I think they can weather this storm


2/5 of that line is gone.  And the top backup for peters, Big V is also gone.  Not saying Sanders catastrophically suffers, but that line likely won’t grade o it near that high now. 
 

For the record I like Sanders, but he isn’t a cow bell back, and he isn’t close to Kamara with the ball in his hands either, so I don’t know where he falls.  Today’s news certainly isn’t good news for his fantasy appeal! 

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2 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

I also think Mixon is fools gold.  I’m a Sooner fan, so I love him.  But I see that D being horrible taking the rushing game out of the game plan before halftime.  If he beasts it will be receptions. You simply want more than 8 TDS from your top pick. So It’s a easy pass for me in Mixon. 

Mixon still averaged over 4 YPC behind that horrible line. It's kind of a shame they didn't make the same effort to improve their line compared to like the Browns, Jets, and Dolphins but Mixon has proven he can be very good without an elite line. The problem is Bernard. Mixon is a very good pass catcher but the Bengals seem set on throwing in Bernard on a lot of pass catching sets. Still, Mixon is a solid proven commodity with a high upside especially if Bernard either gets hurt or falls off a bit. That's where that first round appeal comes in. 

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48 minutes ago, TheLastBoyScout said:


2/5 of that line is gone.  And the top backup for peters, Big V is also gone.  Not saying Sanders catastrophically suffers, but that line likely won’t grade o it near that high now. 
 

For the record I like Sanders, but he isn’t a cow bell back, and he isn’t close to Kamara with the ball in his hands either, so I don’t know where he falls.  Today’s news certainly isn’t good news for his fantasy appeal! 

Just going to quote myself from earlier: 

Quote

 His snap count without Howard? 85%, 84%, 87%, 56%, 71%, 82%, and 31% (left with ankle injury). In the game vs Seattle in the playoffs 70% and you can argue he didn't get as much run as he would without an ankle injury.

So I wouldn't be so sure that he isn't a bellcow back. I don't think he is Kamara talented but then again who is? That being said, he is in an elite offense and is clearly the #1 option. He was pretty much the bellcow towards the end of last season and I really don't see it changing. I think there is a higher chance that his snap count continues as it was rather than falling down for some reason. 

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1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

2. Saquon Barkley, NYG

                                                                                      

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

4. Alvin Kamara, NO

                                                                                      

5. Derrick Henry, TEN

                                                                                      

6. Joe Mixon, CIN

7. Dalvin Cook, MIN

                                                                                      

8. Nick Chubb, CLE

9. Aaron Jones, GB

10. Josh Jacobs, LV

11. Kenyan Drake, AZ

12. Miles Sanders, PHI

                                                                                      

13. Chris Carson, SEA

14. Todd Gurley, ATL

15. James Conner, PIT

                                                                                      

16. Mark Ingram, BAL

17. Leonard Fournette, JAX

18. Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

19. David Johnson, HOU

                                                                                      

20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

21. Jonathan Taylor, IND

22. Austin Ekeler, LAC

23. Melvin Gordon, DEN

                                                                                      

24. Raheem Mostert, SF

25. Devin Singletary, BUF

 

My quick stab at a Top 25.  Rip away.

 

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In draft, Elliot falls to 17th ranking place...wow

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

2. Saquon Barkley, NYG

                                                                                      

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

4. Alvin Kamara, NO

                                                                                      

5. Derrick Henry, TEN

                                                                                      

6. Joe Mixon, CIN

7. Dalvin Cook, MIN

                                                                                      

8. Nick Chubb, CLE

9. Aaron Jones, GB

10. Josh Jacobs, LV

11. Kenyan Drake, AZ

12. Miles Sanders, PHI

                                                                                      

13. Chris Carson, SEA

14. Todd Gurley, ATL

15. James Conner, PIT

                                                                                      

16. Mark Ingram, BAL

17. Leonard Fournette, JAX

18. Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

19. David Johnson, HOU

                                                                                      

20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

21. Jonathan Taylor, IND

22. Austin Ekeler, LAC

23. Melvin Gordon, DEN

                                                                                      

24. Raheem Mostert, SF

25. Devin Singletary, BUF

 

My quick stab at a Top 25.  Rip away.

 

 Ingram and CEH need to swap Tiers IMO

 

and i prefer Akers/Swift over Mostert/Singletary so id probably bunch ingram all 3 Rookies and Melvin in the same tier, Ekeler should be above all them even though i personally wont be drafting Ekeler and id have Melvin at 25th rounding out that final tier, first half of the list pretty spot on

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Posted (edited)

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

2. Saquon Barkley, NYG

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

                                                                                      

4. Derrick Henry, TEN

5. Dalvin Cook, MIN

6. Alvin Kamara, NO

 

                                                                                      

7. Aaron Jones, GB

8. Kenyan Drake, AZ

9. Joe Mixon, CIN

                                                                                      

10. Austin Ekeler, LAC

11. Nick Chubb, CLE

12. Josh Jacobs, LV

13. Raheem Mostert, SF

                                                                                      

14. Miles Sanders, PHI

15. Mark Ingram, BAL

16. Melvin Gordon, DEN

17. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

                                                                                      

18. Leonard Fournette, JAX

19. Todd Gurley, ATL

20. Jonathan Taylor, IND

21. James Conner, PIT

22. Chris Carson, SEA

                                                                                      

23. Devin Singletary, BUF

24. Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

25. Sony Michel, NEP

26. David Johnson, HOU

                                                                                      

27. Cam Akers, LAR

28. David Montgomery, CHI

29. Matt Breida, MIA

30. Phillip Lindsey, DEN

                                                                                      

31. Kareem Hunt, CLE

32. Derrius Guice, WAS

 

Someone is going to lead TBB and DET, but I think whoever it is, will be no better than the bottom tier.

 

Players I could see tumble are Kamara, Gurley, Carson

Players I could see rise are Eckler, Mostert, Lindsey

Obvious Injury risks I could see not end up top 32, Gurley, Conner, Carson, Bell, and Guice

Edited by DallasSooner
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1 hour ago, DallasSooner said:

                                                                            Players I could see tumble are Kamara, Gurley, Carson

Players I could see rise are Eckler, Mostert, Lindsey

Obvious Injury risks I could see not end up top 32, Gurley, Conner, Carson, Bell, and Guice

 

Seems pretty legit , you’re very high on Mostert huh? You got him pegged @ 13th , which I feel is very generous. I’d prolly have Chubb up a few spots & Jones the opposite. 

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1 hour ago, DallasSooner said:

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

2. Saquon Barkley, NYG

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

                                                                                      

4. Derrick Henry, TEN

5. Dalvin Cook, MIN

6. Alvin Kamara, NO

 

                                                                                      

7. Aaron Jones, GB

8. Kenyan Drake, AZ

9. Joe Mixon, CIN

                                                                                      

10. Austin Ekeler, LAC

11. Nick Chubb, CLE

12. Josh Jacobs, LV

13. Raheem Mostert, SF

                                                                                      

14. Miles Sanders, PHI

15. Mark Ingram, BAL

16. Melvin Gordon, DEN

17. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

                                                                                      

18. Leonard Fournette, JAX

19. Todd Gurley, ATL

20. Jonathan Taylor, IND

21. James Conner, PIT

22. Chris Carson, SEA

                                                                                      

23. Devin Singletary, BUF

24. Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

25. Sony Michel, NEP

26. David Johnson, HOU

                                                                                      

27. Cam Akers, LAR

28. David Montgomery, CHI

29. Matt Breida, MIA

30. Phillip Lindsey, DEN

                                                                                      

31. Kareem Hunt, CLE

32. Derrius Guice, WAS

 

Someone is going to lead TBB and DET, but I think whoever it is, will be no better than the bottom tier.

 

Players I could see tumble are Kamara, Gurley, Carson

Players I could see rise are Eckler, Mostert, Lindsey

Obvious Injury risks I could see not end up top 32, Gurley, Conner, Carson, Bell, and Guice

Mostert ahead of Miles Sanders is so spicy I need some Tums after reading that. 

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7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Mostert ahead of Miles Sanders is so spicy I need some Tums after reading that. 

 

19 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Seems pretty legit , you’re very high on Mostert huh? You got him pegged @ 13th , which I feel is very generous. I’d prolly have Chubb up a few spots & Jones the opposite. 

 

Its hard to ignore the last 6 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs after he took over the bell cow roll in SF.  That looked better to me than anything Sanders did at any stretch of the season.   

 

I love Chubb, but getting in the end zone is what is holding him back for me.  I might be tempted to swap Chubb and Mixon for the same reasons. But the Mixon love here is strong.

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36 minutes ago, DallasSooner said:

 

 

Its hard to ignore the last 6 weeks of the regular season and the playoffs after he took over the bell cow roll in SF.  That looked better to me than anything Sanders did at any stretch of the season.   

 

I love Chubb, but getting in the end zone is what is holding him back for me.  I might be tempted to swap Chubb and Mixon for the same reasons. But the Mixon love here is strong.

6 week samples are always flukey. Plenty of mediocre backs have done good over 6 week stretches.
 

Also week 11-16 Sanders outscored Mostert by a significant amount. He was also the #4 leading scorer at the position over that stretch. 12-17 it was pretty much even and Sanders more or less missed week 17. The notion that Mostert was better during that stretch is just flat out wrong. After Sanders took over the bellcow role he was better than Mostert was.

Also, Mostert only had 1 game with 15+ carries. I understand RBs in the Shanahan offense have high success but if you want to put that much value into a low volume RB be my guest. Mostert never was the bellcow either. He pretty much hovered around 50% snap count over that 6 week stretch. He was just efficient. Compared to Sanders who was pushing 80%.

It’s really not that close...

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Gohawks said:

6 week samples are always flukey. Plenty of mediocre backs have done good over 6 week stretches.
 

Also week 11-16 Sanders outscored Mostert by a significant amount. He was also the #4 leading scorer at the position over that stretch. 12-17 it was pretty much even and Sanders more or less missed week 17. The notion that Mostert was better during that stretch is just flat out wrong. After Sanders took over the bellcow role he was better than Mostert was.

Also, Mostert only had 1 game with 15+ carries. I understand RBs in the Shanahan offense have high success but if you want to put that much value into a low volume RB be my guest. Mostert never was the bellcow either. He pretty much hovered around 50% snap count over that 6 week stretch. He was just efficient. Compared to Sanders who was pushing 80%.

It’s really not that close...

 

[...]

Week 17, Sanders had 12 touches to Mostert's 11.  And you say Sanders more or less missed week 17?  Guess according to you Mostert DNP?!

Week 11 Sanders had 14 touches and lead his team in rush attempts. While Mostert had half the attempts as Coleman 12-6. Mostert hadn't won the job yet. SO of course you want to include this week in your argument. And remove week 17, when Mostert was rolling, even with fewer touches than Sanders.

 

Getting to your other argument, Weeks 11-16  in both of my leagues, Sanders outscored Mostert by 8.1 pts, while in week 11-17 Mostert outscored Sanders by 9 pts.

So tell me again which was more significant amount and which was pretty much even? 

 

SF  just added Trent Williams to an already mauling OL, and Philly just lost their best blocking OL for the year.  Mostert led the league in yards per carry, minimum 50 carries according to Matthew Berry on his podcast on ESPN, and Mostert is a clearly more efficient player in a much better rushing offense, so he doesn't need as many touches to outproduce Sanders.

 

I had the two players back to back in my rankings, so I had them close to start. I am not arguing Sanders is a bum. Mostert just plays in a run heavier offense behind a better OL, and with a considerably better D, giving them the ball more late with the lead to run out the clock.  He is more efficient and scores more TDs by a significant margin. I do not see anything but upside. Plus He is likely to be picked a full round to 1.5 rounds later.

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed unnecessary posturing

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