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12 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

Weeks 11-16  in both of my leagues, Sanders outscored Mostert by 8.1 pts, while in week 11-17 Mostert outscored Sanders by 9 pts.

I checked on https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/half-ppr-rb.php?year=2019&start=11&end=16 and it seems to me that in .5 PPR, Sanders outscored Mostert by 15.1 points; in std it's 6.6, so not sure what I'm missing. Can you check those numbers?

Regarding week 17, both of you have a point; Sanders played only 31% of snaps, all in the first half; Mostert didn't play much more (51%) but all throughout the game, up until the 4th quarter and got 2 TDs, both in the second half.

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1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. Kamara

4. Zeke

5. Cook

6. Henry

7. Mixon

8. Drake

9. Sanders

10. Jacobs

11. Carson

12. Chubb

13. Jones

14. Conner

15. Gurley

16. CEH

17. Gordon

18. Fournette

19. Montgomery

20. Singletary

21. Taylor

22. Ingram

23. Bell

24. Mostert

25. Akers

 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Evincar said:

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. Kamara

4. Zeke

5. Cook

6. Henry

7. Mixon

8. Drake

9. Sanders

10. Jacobs

11. Carson

12. Chubb

13. Jones

14. Conner

15. Gurley

16. CEH

17. Gordon

18. Fournette

19. Montgomery

20. Singletary

21. Taylor

22. Ingram

23. Bell

24. Mostert

25. Akers

 

Kamara over Zeke is mind boggling to me considering he has both a lower floor and lower ceiling but I really like this list besides that

Conner is high for my taste. Same for Carson. With his fumbles he was a week to week roller coaster to own and now has Hyde. Maybe Gordon too with how awful he was last year but I just have never thought high on him compared to the consensus

Overall though this list is pretty damn good and balances youth/veterans pretty well

Edited by mocha4313

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49 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Kamara over Zeke is mind boggling to me considering he has both a lower floor and lower ceiling but I really like this list besides that

Conner is high for my taste. Same for Carson. With his fumbles he was a week to week roller coaster to own and now has Hyde. Maybe Gordon too with how awful he was last year but I just have never thought high on him compared to the consensus

Overall though this list is pretty damn good and balances youth/veterans pretty well

 

I think you start to see Zeke decline a little bit more. He's had a insane workload the first 4 seasons and his rush yards per game fell to under 90 for the first time last year. Kamara is healthy and gets back to double digit tds.

I think Gordon makes his money on the goalline and gets 40-50 receptions on what should be an ascending offense.

Im not really afraid of Hyde too much. He's 29 and last season was probably his last gasp on fantasy relevance in his career. I think Carson and Conner are a bit undervalued right now.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

Week 17, Sanders had 12 touches to Mostert's 11.  And you say Sanders more or less missed week 17?  Guess according to you Mostert DNP?!

Sanders left the game with an injury. Why do touches have anything to do with this? My argument is that Sanders had more volume and even in a game in which he basically played only one quarter he out touched Mostert. He also had more than half his teams touches at that stage. 

4 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

Week 11 Sanders had 14 touches and lead his team in rush attempts. While Mostert had half the attempts as Coleman 12-6. Mostert hadn't won the job yet. SO of course you want to include this week in your argument. And remove week 17, when Mostert was rolling, even with fewer touches than Sanders.

 

Why are you arguing like Mostert getting less touches somehow helps your argument? It's like arguing Gus Edwards over Barkley by going "well, Edwards didn't get as much touches so obviously he didn't do as good but looking at his YPC if he did get as much touches he would be as good." That's not how any of this works. Mostert played around 50% of the snaps that week. He also played around 50% of the snaps in week 15, 16, and 17. So he never ran away with the job. The reason he got 6 carries is because he doesn't get a lot of volume. That didn't even change in the playoffs in which he got 12 carries against the Vikings and Chiefs. The game against the Packers is an obvious anomaly in which the Packers couldn't do anything to stop the 49ers run game. 

4 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

Getting to your other argument, Weeks 11-16  in both of my leagues, Sanders outscored Mostert by 8.1 pts, while in week 11-17 Mostert outscored Sanders by 9 pts.

So tell me again which was more significant amount and which was pretty much even? 

This may shock you but i'm not actually in your league. I always use half-PPR when presenting fantasy numbers as it splits the difference. Week 11-16 Sanders scored 16% more points than Mostert. That's a pretty significant difference. If you look at week 12-17 the difference is 0.1 points so they were practically the same. However, it doesn't matter because you claim that Mosterts 6 game stretch looked better than anything Sanders did at any point of the season. Which is just 100% flat out wrong no matter how you slice the numbers. Shocking I know since you told me to do my research so i'm surprised you'd make any errors...

Edited by Gohawks

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

1. CMC

2. Barkley

3. Kamara

4. Zeke

5. Cook

6. Henry

7. Mixon

8. Drake

9. Sanders

10. Jacobs

11. Carson

12. Chubb

13. Jones

14. Conner

15. Gurley

16. CEH

17. Gordon

18. Fournette

19. Montgomery

20. Singletary

21. Taylor

22. Ingram

23. Bell

24. Mostert

25. Akers

 


no offense these are way out there across the board.

Kamara ahead if Zeke is just the tip of the iceberg.  
 

chubb and Jones below Carson? 
 

No Eckler at all?

 

Ingram below Montgomery  and singletary? Baltimore will pull what Dallas did with Demarco Murray and run him into the ground trying to win a title. Then let him walk after this year.  
 

Dobbins reminds me of a former Oklahoma State and 2004 2nd round Denver Bronco Tatum Bell.  He will have some success in the NFL, but too fragile for the position at this level. I could see Dobbins getting hurt as a rookie. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, DallasSooner said:


no offense these are way out there across the board.

Kamara ahead if Zeke is just the tip of the iceberg.  
 

chubb and Jones below Carson? 
 

No Eckler at all?

 

Ingram below Montgomery  and singletary? Baltimore will pull what Dallas did with Demarco Murray and run him into the ground trying to win a title. Then let him walk after this year.  
 

Dobbins reminds me of a former Oklahoma State and 2004 2nd round Denver Bronco Tatum Bell.  He will have some success in the NFL, but too fragile for the position at this level. I could see Dobbins getting hurt as a rookie. 

 

Oops I forgot Ekeler. Im not a big fan of him this season but I would probably put him at 17 or 18.

Im not sure whats wrong with Carson over Chubb and Jones. Chubb has competition from Hunt and Jones has it from Dillon.

How is Baltimore going to run Ingram into the ground? They only gave him 228 touches while they breezed to a 14-2 record. This season they add Dobbins and they have an easier schedule. Could be a 4 man RBBC for all we know.

Edited by Evincar

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4 minutes ago, Evincar said:

Im not sure whats wrong with Carson over Chubb and Jones. Chubb has competition from Hunt and Jones has it from Dillon

Carson has had a solid workload the past 2 seasons but I don't think he is better than Chubb or Jones (and I say that as someone who had Carson), He's also coming back from a pretty bad injury, and while he may return 100%, that's not sure yet and we may not even see him during the pre-season. I'll certainly rank him lower than those 2.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Sanders left the game with an injury. Why do touches have anything to do with this? My argument is that Sanders had more volume and even in a game in which he basically played only one quarter he out touched Mostert. He also had more than half his teams touches at that stage. 

Why are you arguing like Mostert getting less touches somehow helps your argument? It's like arguing Gus Edwards over Barkley by going "well, Edwards didn't get as much touches so obviously he didn't do as good but looking at his YPC if he did get as much touches he would be as good." That's not how any of this works. Mostert played around 50% of the snaps that week. He also played around 50% of the snaps in week 15, 16, and 17. So he never ran away with the job. The reason he got 6 carries is because he doesn't get a lot of volume. That didn't even change in the playoffs in which he got 12 carries against the Vikings and Chiefs. The game against the Packers is an obvious anomaly in which the Packers couldn't do anything to stop the 49ers run game. 

This may shock you but i'm not actually in your league. I always use half-PPR when presenting fantasy numbers as it splits the difference. Week 11-16 Sanders scored 16% more points than Mostert. That's a pretty significant difference. If you look at week 12-17 the difference is 0.1 points so they were practically the same. However, it doesn't matter because you claim that Mosterts 6 game stretch looked better than anything Sanders did at any point of the season. Which is just 100% flat out wrong no matter how you slice the numbers. Shocking I know since you told me to do my research so i'm surprised you'd make any errors...

 

[...] I clearly said the last 6 weeks AND the playoffs.  That is almost half a years worth of sample size, and the last 10 weeks of their season. That is what I project going forward.  They didn't add a legit back in FA or the draft, and traded Breida.  So they are satisfied with Mostert carrying the load, with Coleman in  a robin role.

In my league those were the numbers. I found the difference, we play in IDP, and Mostert had 5 tackles on special teams. Mostert also had 2 fumbles lost to Sander 1.  So there was no errors. Just different scoring.  

 

Last year:

Sanders had 179 carries for 818 yds, 3 rushing TD and 50 receptions for 509 yards 3 Tds - 6 total Tds starting 2/3 of the year - 192.9 points

Mosterst had 137 carries for 772 yds, 8 rushing TDs and 14 receptions for 180 yards 2Tds - 10 total Tds starting 1/3 of the year - 166 points

 

I project Sanders having 210 carries for 940 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs,  56 reception for 530 yards and 4 Rec Tds, 9 total TDs - 229 points

 

I project Mostert having 185 carries for 1050 rushing yards, 12 rushing TDs, 20 receptions for 260 yards and 3 rec Tds, 15 total TDs - 231 points

 

My point was never to trash Sanders, only to validate my rankings.

 

[...]

 

Edited by tonycpsu
More beefing and posturing removed. Nobody cares that you wrote for another site, and flashing your "credentials" makes you look silly.

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46 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Oops I forgot Ekeler. Im not a big fan of him this season but I would probably put him at 17 or 18.

Im not sure whats wrong with Carson over Chubb and Jones. Chubb has competition from Hunt and Jones has it from Dillon.

How is Baltimore going to run Ingram into the ground? They only gave him 228 touches while they breezed to a 14-2 record. This season they add Dobbins and they have an easier schedule. Could be a 4 man RBBC for all we know.

 

Carson will have competition from Penny by midseason, who may turn out to be a better back.  Carson is also coming off a significant injury, though so is Penny.

 

Chubb is just a better RB and should find the endzone more with a legitimate offensive coach. 

A Jones was a fantasy freak last year, finding the endzone at a ridiculous pace.  Sure there will be regression, but I think he still has a significantly better year than Carson. 

Gus Edwards will end up this years Breida.  I would be surprised if he had more than 60 attempts, where last year he had 133. maybe half a dozen DNP.  Justice Hill I actually like, but he lost more by the drafting of Dobbins long term than anyone. He should see more receptions than last year, but I do not see him doing much more.  I do not think Baltimore's record will regress. I do not see 14-2, as teams will scheme to make Lamar beat them from the pocket, not give him everything like last year.  Kap and Vick were eventually contained by opposing DC. I think they want to limit Lamar's wear and tear a tad, which could lead to more overall carries for back. Ingram also missed week 17, so he could repeat last years 228 touches in a full season   I predict Baltimore will be playing meaningful games in December, for seeding.  Cleveland and Pitt will be better because of coaching and returns from Injury.  I don't think you can simply go by last years records to determine who is going to be weak this season.

I hope my redraft is sleeping on Eckler as much as those are here.  All he did was beast with out Gordon and it continued when Gordon returned.

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2 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

Shameless plug, but I used to get paid by another fantasy football website for my opinions/rankings/weekly articles for half a decade.  I would say I have earned the right to have an opinion separate form yours.

I had a hot girl hit me up once for fantasy advice. I think that carries significantly more weight but to each their own.,,

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DallasSooner said:

I hope my redraft is sleeping on Eckler as much as those are here.  All he did was beast with out Gordon and it continued when Gordon returned.

 

His rushing was 132-557-3, which isn't anything to talk about. Actually most of his productivity came from his part in the passing game with 92-993-8, which in itself is (nearly) a WR1 (in PPR). Do you think he can reproduce that this year with either Tyrod Taylor or a Rookie at the helmet? Maybe their defense will hold together fo the first time in years again and they have to lean more on the run game. Is he that much better than Justin Jackson as a pure runner?

I don't know.

 

  

10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I had a hot girl hit me up once for fantasy advice. I think that carries significantly more weight but to each their own.,,



Bro Explaining | Know Your Meme

Edited by thebadferret
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On 6/16/2020 at 9:30 AM, Fort4242 said:

1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

2. Saquon Barkley, NYG

                                                                                      

3. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

4. Alvin Kamara, NO

                                                                                      

5. Derrick Henry, TEN

                                                                                      

6. Joe Mixon, CIN

7. Dalvin Cook, MIN

                                                                                      

8. Nick Chubb, CLE

9. Aaron Jones, GB

10. Josh Jacobs, LV

11. Kenyan Drake, AZ

12. Miles Sanders, PHI

                                                                                      

13. Chris Carson, SEA

14. Todd Gurley, ATL

15. James Conner, PIT

                                                                                      

16. Mark Ingram, BAL

17. Leonard Fournette, JAX

18. Le'Veon Bell, NYJ

19. David Johnson, HOU

                                                                                      

20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

21. Jonathan Taylor, IND

22. Austin Ekeler, LAC

23. Melvin Gordon, DEN

                                                                                      

24. Raheem Mostert, SF

25. Devin Singletary, BUF

 

My quick stab at a Top 25.  Rip away.

 

These rankings are most similar to mine.  I would move Fournette into the tier with Carson and put him behind Carson.  This is all assuming Carson ends up being healthy by draft time.  He healed very nicely from his last injury and his team has been vocal in support of him being the starter.  I am not worried about Hyde (Penny insurance).  Penny is even less of a concern for me (won't be ready to start the season and simply doesn't look as good during the games).  Seattle runs enough to get some other guys involved, but it was clear that they preferred Carson.  I'm willing to gamble on his health because he gets 20+ touches a game (and he's pretty efficient with them) and I don't see that changing. 

 

Fournette was near the top of the NFL in yards after contact behind a deplorable offensive line.  Barring some additional news that comes out, I think he remains a workhorse back.  I would also expect some TD regression (up) back to the mean.  I think he and Carson are good value at their current ADP's and will be great values if the ADP's don't change and things are looking positive for them as the season approaches.

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10 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

These rankings are most similar to mine.  I would move Fournette into the tier with Carson and put him behind Carson.  This is all assuming Carson ends up being healthy by draft time.  He healed very nicely from his last injury and his team has been vocal in support of him being the starter.  I am not worried about Hyde (Penny insurance).  Penny is even less of a concern for me (won't be ready to start the season and simply doesn't look as good during the games).  Seattle runs enough to get some other guys involved, but it was clear that they preferred Carson.  I'm willing to gamble on his health because he gets 20+ touches a game (and he's pretty efficient with them) and I don't see that changing. 

 

Fournette was near the top of the NFL in yards after contact behind a deplorable offensive line.  Barring some additional news that comes out, I think he remains a workhorse back.  I would also expect some TD regression (up) back to the mean.  I think he and Carson are good value at their current ADP's and will be great values if the ADP's don't change and things are looking positive for them as the season approaches.

Yeah Fournette was honestly the hardest one to place.  I put him in line with guys that "if they play 16 can be elite."  PIT, BAL and ATL should all be better offenses than JAX so that factored in a bit for me too.  So if all 4 guys last the whole season, I just think Conner, Gurley and Ingram have a higher ceiling given the offense they play in.  Ingram is a notch below Gurley and Conner because neither of them have any competition behind them, where as Ingram has Dobbins.  Fournette doesn't have much competition either, but again, the offense put Ingram slightly ahead of him for me.

Tough group to decipher once you get into that range IMO.  

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On 6/17/2020 at 10:28 AM, Fort4242 said:

Yeah Fournette was honestly the hardest one to place.  I put him in line with guys that "if they play 16 can be elite."  PIT, BAL and ATL should all be better offenses than JAX so that factored in a bit for me too.  So if all 4 guys last the whole season, I just think Conner, Gurley and Ingram have a higher ceiling given the offense they play in.  Ingram is a notch below Gurley and Conner because neither of them have any competition behind them, where as Ingram has Dobbins.  Fournette doesn't have much competition either, but again, the offense put Ingram slightly ahead of him for me.

Tough group to decipher once you get into that range IMO.  

 

Fournette just scares me this year, man. I feel like last year was about as good as you could have expected minus the team and defense falling apart. Unfortunately, I don't see the team being any/much better and I don't see him holding the passing down work. His floor seems really low between those two factors, not to mention the injury history. I was on him for a bounce back last year but I'm most likely off him this year. He's a tough one to rank, though, for sure.

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On 6/28/2020 at 4:09 PM, aapox said:

 

Fournette just scares me this year, man. I feel like last year was about as good as you could have expected minus the team and defense falling apart. Unfortunately, I don't see the team being any/much better and I don't see him holding the passing down work. His floor seems really low between those two factors, not to mention the injury history. I was on him for a bounce back last year but I'm most likely off him this year. He's a tough one to rank, though, for sure.

I'm with you - out on Fournette and on M Gordon too.  I move them below everyone on the Fort4242 ranked list of 25 - in addition I would slot Akers, Dobbins, Swift, K Hunt, D Williams, D Montgomery, Guice (if healthy of course) and the lead Tampa back (whether R Jones or Vaughn) ahead of them both as well.

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On 6/17/2020 at 7:26 PM, Gohawks said:

I had a hot girl hit me up once for fantasy advice. I think that carries significantly more weight but to each their own.,,

Not when she only hit you up once. 

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Posted (edited)

Where does Devonta Freeman fit in if hes signed with the Bucs? seems like hes asking for too much money though.

Edited by bhawks489

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22 hours ago, EWV1 said:

I'm with you - out on Fournette and on M Gordon too.  I move them below everyone on the Fort4242 ranked list of 25 - in addition I would slot Akers, Dobbins, Swift, K Hunt, D Williams, D Montgomery, Guice (if healthy of course) and the lead Tampa back (whether R Jones or Vaughn) ahead of them both as well.

I can’t in good conscious put any of those above Fournette.   He’s a 325 touch guy barring major injury.   They’re going to run the wheels off and cut him loose.   

 

Perfect redraft 3rd rb...

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2 hours ago, JimmyDolan said:

Not when she only hit you up once. 

source.gif

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

I can’t in good conscious put any of those above Fournette.   He’s a 325 touch guy barring major injury.   They’re going to run the wheels off and cut him loose.   

 

Perfect redraft 3rd rb...

 

I agree with you that I probably wouldn't take any of those guys above LF, though I am mostly avoiding this range of RBs. But 325 touches? I just don't see it man, at all. 1) There's no way he's going be a 3rd down back with CT there under Gruden and how bad of a pass-catcher he is. 2) This team is not going to be winning a lot or leading on the scoreboard. He's going to lose significant carries because of that. 3) You acknowledged this, but the injury history is still a problem. Add that to the first two and it's just super worrisome for me that he busts out hard. I'd rather have most other RBs in the 'iffy' Rb2/3 range.

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

I can’t in good conscious put any of those above Fournette.   He’s a 325 touch guy barring major injury.   They’re going to run the wheels off and cut him loose.   

 

Perfect redraft 3rd rb...

You are right that LF is projected for more touches than most of the guys I named.  My hunch is injury or trade into a non-workhorse role.

As for MGordon - good situation despite Lindsay and the WR/TE corps - but...chicken legs.

nod33cv6qlg11.jpg

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3 hours ago, EWV1 said:

You are right that LF is projected for more touches than most of the guys I named.  My hunch is injury or trade into a non-workhorse role.

As for MGordon - good situation despite Lindsay and the WR/TE corps - but...chicken legs.

nod33cv6qlg11.jpg

 

OMG Lol that picture is stunning

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4 hours ago, EWV1 said:

You are right that LF is projected for more touches than most of the guys I named.  My hunch is injury or trade into a non-workhorse role.

As for MGordon - good situation despite Lindsay and the WR/TE corps - but...chicken legs.

nod33cv6qlg11.jpg

Gordon ran a 4.52 40. I ain’t seen the video but I’m willing to bet he ran on his hands.

That arm to leg ratio don’t make sense. 

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