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Quite possibly longest post in Rotoworld history??  

Much appreciated though,  very informative.  

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Here's my stab in .5 PPR. Definitely drinking the kool-aid on a few guys (Sanders, Montgomery, Gurley) and are lower than consensus on others (Ekeler, DJ, Carson), but what's the fun/value of this if you're just sticking to ECR?

 

Tier 1 

1. Christian McCaffrey - Coming off of an incredible season, impossible to have anyone else in this spot. The addition of Teddy with his checkdown tendencies, Rhule/Brady's quick passing offense, and a poor defense, he may even catch more balls this year. Only downside is that I don't see him getting the 100% snap share of '18 and '19. 

2. Saquon Barkley - Have him closer to CMC than most. The most talented back in football in my eyes, will have a stable floor with crazy upside.

 

Tier 2 

3. Alvin Kamara - Incredible pass game floor with 81 catches in all 3 seasons. Went from 18 to 6 TDs, should get back into double digits. Murray is no slouch, but Kamara still dominates snap share.

4. Ezekiel Elliott - Positive TD regression in store, will continue to get 300+ touches, though Pollard is a stud and may push him for pass down work more than people think.

5. Dalvin Cook - Assuming he agrees on a deal, I see no reason to expect anything different from what he did the 1st 11 weeks of last year. Injury + Mattison are the only thing keeping him from RB3 for me.

 

Tier 3

6. Joe Mixon - Has been a low-end RB1 for terrible offenses the past 2 years. Offense should improve mightily leading to more TD opportunity. Gio Bernard is less efficient every year and could be a cap casualty, could see Mixon getting some more pass work. Defense should keep games closer this year with additions DJ Reader, Waynes, Vonn Bell, and rookie LBs.

7. Derrick Henry - Still a lock for 10+ TDs, but week-to-week low floor scares me. TEN had a 75% red zone success rate which should plummet. They will kick more FG and lead early in less games, making them pass the ball a bit more.

 

Tier 4 

8. Miles Sanders - Until they add a veteran RB, I have no problem ranking and taking Sanders THIS high. Lamar Miller and Freeman are the only 2 that will give me any pause. Is supremely talented, should have an unquestioned 3 down role, goal line work, and catch tons of passes with a still questionable WR core. Even losing Brooks, they have a great OL (and could still add Warford in FA), and play in a division with some awful defenses (DAL/NYG)

9. Nick Chubb - Could be the best runner in football. OL beefed up with Wills and Conklin, along with Stefanski's run heavy scheme. Lack of prowess in pass game/presence of Hunt scares me. Was ridiculously inefficient at the Goal line last year.. could Hunt take that role if he struggles out of the gate?

10. Kenyan Drake - ARI RBs would have been the RB3 in all of football if you compiled all teams' total RB stats. Drake has a ton of talent. Downsides are Murray taking off to run rather than checking down, and I think that Edmonds' role is being a bit overlooked, he's produced when given a chance.

11. Josh Jacobs - Great talent, played hurt last year and was still incredible. Very good OL. Even as I'm writing this I feel like I'm underrating him, but addition of Bowden and resigning Richard has me thinking he'll get very limited pass work despite his apparent talent there.

 

Tier 5 

12. Todd Gurley - Still talented, produced admirably behind a terrible OL last year and ATL has a ton of talent around him (plus 2 2019 1st round OL that will take a step). Probably has the worst backup RBs in football other than CMC. Playing for his NFL future in a top 10 offense. Freeman caught 59 passes and missed games last year, Gurley could match or even exceed that. I like his chances of being a top 15 back if he stays healthy.

13. Aaron Jones - Snap count unpredictability is the only thing keeping him from tier 4. People say Dillon will simply take the J Williams role, but I see a world where all 3 of these guys are seeing snaps on Sundays. 19 TDs is due to regress, and Dillon is a bowling ball that will take some GL carries. Stud receiver, but splits with/without D Adams are troubling.

14. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 1st round draft capital makes it almost certain he'll be used immediately. Not much needs to be said about the offense, and Reid himself said he's better than Brian Westbrook. Only downside is no one knows what the share will be to start, will Williams be a thorn in his side all year or just the 1st month.

 

Tier 5 

15. Leonard Fournette - Has a clear path to 1st and 2nd down workload. Everyone says the OL is miserable, but they have some talent/draft capital there in Jawann Taylor, Linder, Norwell. Gruden is a solid OC. Pass work will drop significantly with addition of C Thompson (a favorite of Gruden) + Armstead in year 2 (who was a good pass catcher last year). Could be the worst team in football.

16. Jonathan Taylor - Uber talented RB behind a top flight OL. His measurables were comparable to Zeke coming out Mack is a solid RB, but he won't be able to hold off Taylor. Hines will get some pass work, but think Taylor will explode if he approaches 250 touches. 

17. James Conner - Still has close to a 3 down role, Samuels is a proven JAG. I'll never try to predict injury, but he surely goes down more than most. If he plays all 16, he's an RB1. I'll take the discount.

18. David Montgomery - He has some crazy contact balance/ability to make the 1st man miss on tape, but his burst is a bit troubling. He doesn't need to be dynamic to be effective with the 325+ touches I'm projecting. No competition for carries + Cohen is an inefficient pass catcher. New OC Lazor says it will be a priority to establish the run game this year. I'd have him in the top 15 if I had the rocks to do it. Better QB play, positive TD regression, and stronger D/game script are all inevitable in my eyes. 

19. Austin Ekeler - I'm fairly low on him because I feel that the move from Rivers to Taylor/Herbert severely hurts his receiving floor, which was his bread and butter. Jackson has been the more efficient runner the past 2 years and I think he or Kelley will take a significant carry share + GL work. Ekeler's efficiency was unsustainable, and defenses will now key in on him after 2 years of catching everyone by surprise.


Tier 6

20 - Melvin Gordon - Making $8m per year, he'll get the work. OL is above average, strong defense should lead to positive game scripts. However, are we sure he's better than Lindsay? Will Freeman be completely phased out or will he still get some touches?

21 - Chris Carson - Coming off of a major hip injury in Week 15 that people seem to be forgetting. His violent running style has always made me think he'll have a short NFL career. Addition of Hyde, Penny's midseason return, and the fact that they finally drafted a pass-down RB in Dallas in rd 4 makes me think Carson's best days are behind him.

22. David Johnson - BO'B will give him the opportunity with all the capital he gave up for him, however people forget HOU also dealt a 3rd for Duke Johnson just a year earlier. He's never been a particularly efficient runner, and 2016 was a loooong time ago in RB years. Watson has never been one to check down to RB. Still, secured GL work in a strong offense isn't a bad thing and he's a low-end RB2 for me assuming health.

23. Le'Veon Bell - Team added to the OL in the offseason, and I think Becton is a force in the run game on day 1. Additions of Gore and Perine aren't substantial, I think Bell will still get tons of work, I just don't think he's very good anymore. 

24. Raheem Mostert - Was an RB1 for the last 8 games of the season. Week-to-week volatility remains a concern, but if he comes out of the gate with 15/125/2TDs, would anyone be surprised? 

 

Tier 7

25. Cam Akers - Best RB on the team. If he comes out and gets the workload that gurley got last year, he'll finish higher than this. OL and darkhorse Darrell Henderson give me pause.

26. Mark Ingram - Dobbins is the better back on day 1. Ingram gets the majority of the work for the 1st 6 weeks or so, but shows his age and gets relegated to COP work by week 8. 

27. Ronald Jones - Jumps off the tape, should at least lock down the GL and early down work on a great O with a great line. Criminally underrated as a pass catcher (5th in yards per target of all RBs), and should benefit by Brady's timing on short throws. 

28. Devin Singletary - Can make a guy miss in a phone booth, the best cut-on-a-dime ability after Kamara and Saquon in the entire league in my eyes, just doesn't have the burst/speed/power to be dynamic after making the 1st guy miss. Only had 2 carries inside the 5, and Allen/Moss will both limit his TD upside. Overrated as a pass catcher as well (Bills fan here).

 

Tier 8

29. Kareem Hunt - Upside is limited as long as he is a CoP guy behind Chubb. Talk of him being used in the slot gives him stable enough flex ability, but he simply doesn't have the upside to take a leap without a Chubb injury.

30. D'Andre Swift - Love the talent, my RB1 in the class. However, DET is a historically bad landing spot for RBs, and I still have faith in Kerryon's talent enough to make it a messy timeshare. 

 

 

Tier 9

31. Derrius Guice - Would be a top 24 guy on my list if there wasn't so much uncertainty in the backfield. AP, Gibson, even Bryce Love could all shine if given the chance. McKissic is there to muddy up pass downs. Still think the talent will shine through, but tough to trust between injury history and competition.

32. JK Dobbins - Think he has the talent to win the job outright from Ingram. If I had the stones, I'd rank him ahead of Ingram, but chances are he doesn't have any value until the 2nd half of the season.

33. Jordan Howard - Such an underrated player throughout his career. Runs with great vision and power. Should secure the GL work on an underrated offense, the OL is still a huge question.

 

Tier 10

34. Sony Michel - Been such a JAG other than a few flashes his rookie year. Looking at his college vs NFL tape is night and day, doesn't even look like the same player. However, will have some flex value with TD upside if he can stave off Damien Harris.

35. Tevin Coleman - High upside handcuff with week-to-week value in Shanny's unpredictable offense. Should take some of the pass down work since that is not Mostert's MO. 

36. Justin Jackson - Think he will win the higher share of the early down carries in LAC. Mobile QB with run-1st coach will make for an efficient run game. Has been nothing but solid when given the chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Here's my stab in .5 PPR. Definitely drinking the kool-aid on a few guys (Sanders, Montgomery, Gurley) and are lower than consensus on others (Ekeler, DJ, Carson), but what's the fun/value of this if you're just sticking to ECR?

 

Tier 1 

1. Christian McCaffrey - Coming off of an incredible season, impossible to have anyone else in this spot. The addition of Teddy with his checkdown tendencies, Rhule/Brady's quick passing offense, and a poor defense, he may even catch more balls this year. Only downside is that I don't see him getting the 100% snap share of '18 and '19. 

2. Saquon Barkley - Have him closer to CMC than most. The most talented back in football in my eyes, will have a stable floor with crazy upside.

 

Tier 2 

3. Alvin Kamara - Incredible pass game floor with 81 catches in all 3 seasons. Went from 18 to 6 TDs, should get back into double digits. Murray is no slouch, but Kamara still dominates snap share.

4. Ezekiel Elliott - Positive TD regression in store, will continue to get 300+ touches, though Pollard is a stud and may push him for pass down work more than people think.

5. Dalvin Cook - Assuming he agrees on a deal, I see no reason to expect anything different from what he did the 1st 11 weeks of last year. Injury + Mattison are the only thing keeping him from RB3 for me.

 

Tier 3

6. Joe Mixon - Has been a low-end RB1 for terrible offenses the past 2 years. Offense should improve mightily leading to more TD opportunity. Gio Bernard is less efficient every year and could be a cap casualty, could see Mixon getting some more pass work. Defense should keep games closer this year with additions DJ Reader, Waynes, Vonn Bell, and rookie LBs.

7. Derrick Henry - Still a lock for 10+ TDs, but week-to-week low floor scares me. TEN had a 75% red zone success rate which should plummet. They will kick more FG and lead early in less games, making them pass the ball a bit more.

 

Tier 4 

8. Miles Sanders - Until they add a veteran RB, I have no problem ranking and taking Sanders THIS high. Lamar Miller and Freeman are the only 2 that will give me any pause. Is supremely talented, should have an unquestioned 3 down role, goal line work, and catch tons of passes with a still questionable WR core. Even losing Brooks, they have a great OL (and could still add Warford in FA), and play in a division with some awful defenses (DAL/NYG)

9. Nick Chubb - Could be the best runner in football. OL beefed up with Wills and Conklin, along with Stefanski's run heavy scheme. Lack of prowess in pass game/presence of Hunt scares me. Was ridiculously inefficient at the Goal line last year.. could Hunt take that role if he struggles out of the gate?

10. Kenyan Drake - ARI RBs would have been the RB3 in all of football if you compiled all teams' total RB stats. Drake has a ton of talent. Downsides are Murray taking off to run rather than checking down, and I think that Edmonds' role is being a bit overlooked, he's produced when given a chance.

11. Josh Jacobs - Great talent, played hurt last year and was still incredible. Very good OL. Even as I'm writing this I feel like I'm underrating him, but addition of Bowden and resigning Richard has me thinking he'll get very limited pass work despite his apparent talent there.

 

Tier 5 

12. Todd Gurley - Still talented, produced admirably behind a terrible OL last year and ATL has a ton of talent around him (plus 2 2019 1st round OL that will take a step). Probably has the worst backup RBs in football other than CMC. Playing for his NFL future in a top 10 offense. Freeman caught 59 passes and missed games last year, Gurley could match or even exceed that. I like his chances of being a top 15 back if he stays healthy.

13. Aaron Jones - Snap count unpredictability is the only thing keeping him from tier 4. People say Dillon will simply take the J Williams role, but I see a world where all 3 of these guys are seeing snaps on Sundays. 19 TDs is due to regress, and Dillon is a bowling ball that will take some GL carries. Stud receiver, but splits with/without D Adams are troubling.

14. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - 1st round draft capital makes it almost certain he'll be used immediately. Not much needs to be said about the offense, and Reid himself said he's better than Brian Westbrook. Only downside is no one knows what the share will be to start, will Williams be a thorn in his side all year or just the 1st month.

 

Tier 5 

15. Leonard Fournette - Has a clear path to 1st and 2nd down workload. Everyone says the OL is miserable, but they have some talent/draft capital there in Jawann Taylor, Linder, Norwell. Gruden is a solid OC. Pass work will drop significantly with addition of C Thompson (a favorite of Gruden) + Armstead in year 2 (who was a good pass catcher last year). Could be the worst team in football.

16. Jonathan Taylor - Uber talented RB behind a top flight OL. His measurables were comparable to Zeke coming out Mack is a solid RB, but he won't be able to hold off Taylor. Hines will get some pass work, but think Taylor will explode if he approaches 250 touches. 

17. James Conner - Still has close to a 3 down role, Samuels is a proven JAG. I'll never try to predict injury, but he surely goes down more than most. If he plays all 16, he's an RB1. I'll take the discount.

18. David Montgomery - He has some crazy contact balance/ability to make the 1st man miss on tape, but his burst is a bit troubling. He doesn't need to be dynamic to be effective with the 325+ touches I'm projecting. No competition for carries + Cohen is an inefficient pass catcher. New OC Lazor says it will be a priority to establish the run game this year. I'd have him in the top 15 if I had the rocks to do it. Better QB play, positive TD regression, and stronger D/game script are all inevitable in my eyes. 

19. Austin Ekeler - I'm fairly low on him because I feel that the move from Rivers to Taylor/Herbert severely hurts his receiving floor, which was his bread and butter. Jackson has been the more efficient runner the past 2 years and I think he or Kelley will take a significant carry share + GL work. Ekeler's efficiency was unsustainable, and defenses will now key in on him after 2 years of catching everyone by surprise.


Tier 6

20 - Melvin Gordon - Making $8m per year, he'll get the work. OL is above average, strong defense should lead to positive game scripts. However, are we sure he's better than Lindsay? Will Freeman be completely phased out or will he still get some touches?

21 - Chris Carson - Coming off of a major hip injury in Week 15 that people seem to be forgetting. His violent running style has always made me think he'll have a short NFL career. Addition of Hyde, Penny's midseason return, and the fact that they finally drafted a pass-down RB in Dallas in rd 4 makes me think Carson's best days are behind him.

22. David Johnson - BO'B will give him the opportunity with all the capital he gave up for him, however people forget HOU also dealt a 3rd for Duke Johnson just a year earlier. He's never been a particularly efficient runner, and 2016 was a loooong time ago in RB years. Watson has never been one to check down to RB. Still, secured GL work in a strong offense isn't a bad thing and he's a low-end RB2 for me assuming health.

23. Le'Veon Bell - Team added to the OL in the offseason, and I think Becton is a force in the run game on day 1. Additions of Gore and Perine aren't substantial, I think Bell will still get tons of work, I just don't think he's very good anymore. 

24. Raheem Mostert - Was an RB1 for the last 8 games of the season. Week-to-week volatility remains a concern, but if he comes out of the gate with 15/125/2TDs, would anyone be surprised? 

 

Tier 7

25. Cam Akers - Best RB on the team. If he comes out and gets the workload that gurley got last year, he'll finish higher than this. OL and darkhorse Darrell Henderson give me pause.

26. Mark Ingram - Dobbins is the better back on day 1. Ingram gets the majority of the work for the 1st 6 weeks or so, but shows his age and gets relegated to COP work by week 8. 

27. Ronald Jones - Jumps off the tape, should at least lock down the GL and early down work on a great O with a great line. Criminally underrated as a pass catcher (5th in yards per target of all RBs), and should benefit by Brady's timing on short throws. 

28. Devin Singletary - Can make a guy miss in a phone booth, the best cut-on-a-dime ability after Kamara and Saquon in the entire league in my eyes, just doesn't have the burst/speed/power to be dynamic after making the 1st guy miss. Only had 2 carries inside the 5, and Allen/Moss will both limit his TD upside. Overrated as a pass catcher as well (Bills fan here).

 

Tier 8

29. Kareem Hunt - Upside is limited as long as he is a CoP guy behind Chubb. Talk of him being used in the slot gives him stable enough flex ability, but he simply doesn't have the upside to take a leap without a Chubb injury.

30. D'Andre Swift - Love the talent, my RB1 in the class. However, DET is a historically bad landing spot for RBs, and I still have faith in Kerryon's talent enough to make it a messy timeshare. 

 

 

Tier 9

31. Derrius Guice - Would be a top 24 guy on my list if there wasn't so much uncertainty in the backfield. AP, Gibson, even Bryce Love could all shine if given the chance. McKissic is there to muddy up pass downs. Still think the talent will shine through, but tough to trust between injury history and competition.

32. JK Dobbins - Think he has the talent to win the job outright from Ingram. If I had the stones, I'd rank him ahead of Ingram, but chances are he doesn't have any value until the 2nd half of the season.

33. Jordan Howard - Such an underrated player throughout his career. Runs with great vision and power. Should secure the GL work on an underrated offense, the OL is still a huge question.

 

Tier 10

34. Sony Michel - Been such a JAG other than a few flashes his rookie year. Looking at his college vs NFL tape is night and day, doesn't even look like the same player. However, will have some flex value with TD upside if he can stave off Damien Harris.

35. Tevin Coleman - High upside handcuff with week-to-week value in Shanny's unpredictable offense. Should take some of the pass down work since that is not Mostert's MO. 

36. Justin Jackson - Think he will win the higher share of the early down carries in LAC. Mobile QB with run-1st coach will make for an efficient run game. Has been nothing but solid when given the chance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Great list. I like Guice a lot too if he can stay healthy.

 

My only real disagreement is Mark Ingram. I think he is a great back and very efficient with his touches, in a guaranteed top 5 running team in the NFL. I’d put him in the top 15 back tier. 
 

Other than that I like the list a lot 

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57 minutes ago, Breesus said:

Great list. I like Guice a lot too if he can stay healthy.

 

My only real disagreement is Mark Ingram. I think he is a great back and very efficient with his touches, in a guaranteed top 5 running team in the NFL. I’d put him in the top 15 back tier. 
 

Other than that I like the list a lot 

Fair, Ingram didn't need a crazy workload to be an RB1 last season, but I think the offense as a whole is due to regress. He had 5 REC TDs on 29 targets, completely unsustainable, and 10 TDs on 200 carries is also a very high rate. 

Also, added competition makes me not like him as I alluded to in my rankings. Ingram will start early in the season, and maybe the whole time because he is still solid and is a key leader for that offense, but I think the moment Dobbins steps on the field is the moment that he's the best RB on the team. Edwards and Hill are both still in town, neither of which are slouches, which means there's a lot of carries to soak up between them all (although I'll assume only 3 will dress regularly) on a team with very little pass volume to the RBs. 

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2 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Fair, Ingram didn't need a crazy workload to be an RB1 last season, but I think the offense as a whole is due to regress. He had 5 REC TDs on 29 targets, completely unsustainable, and 10 TDs on 200 carries is also a very high rate. 

Also, added competition makes me not like him as I alluded to in my rankings. Ingram will start early in the season, and maybe the whole time because he is still solid and is a key leader for that offense, but I think the moment Dobbins steps on the field is the moment that he's the best RB on the team. Edwards and Hill are both still in town, neither of which are slouches, which means there's a lot of carries to soak up between them all (although I'll assume only 3 will dress regularly) on a team with very little pass volume to the RBs. 

Good list overall with some solid justifications. I still think Ingram's contract and locker room presence keeps him above rookie Dobbins but very possible that JK forces his case

I'm just off on Gurley and Rojo and on understanding Kamara over Zeke

 

But nothing here something I think it outright awful or crazy. Seems like a reasonable list based in fact

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8 minutes ago, mocha4313 said:

Good list overall with some solid justifications. I still think Ingram's contract and locker room presence keeps him above rookie Dobbins but very possible that JK forces his case

I'm just off on Gurley and Rojo and on understanding Kamara over Zeke

 

But nothing here something I think it outright awful or crazy. Seems like a reasonable list based in fact

To be honest I go back and forth with Kamara and Zeke.. today was just a Kamara day. I just have a feeling that Pollard is going to be mixed in more than people think and that Kamara has less tread on his tires than Zeke. His pass game floor is unreal, he's gotten 100 targets in all 3 years and I see his TD's doubling (at least) from the 6 he had last year.

 

Just went back to your rankings post (great job too btw) to see your takes on Gurley and Rojo:

Gurley: Agree on some of your points.. It is a pass-1st offense, so he will inherently have a smaller pie to work with, but man I think he gets almost all of that pie (Ito Smith and Brian Hill are terrible). It's a bit tough to predict given that the RB situation has been awful in ATL the past 2 years, but I could see him around 240 carries and 60 catches (Freeman had 59 catches last year), along with unquestioned GL work. They had 362 team carries last year, the same EXACT number as NYG.. anyone fading Saquon because of his pass-1st O (Hyperbole, but think it needs to be said)? I still think he's fairly talented.. he was the RB14 in 15 games last year on an average offense and anemic line that crowded the box once Goff was exposed.  I think the ATL offense is an upgrade, the line is going to be good with Lindstrom/McGary going into year 2, with weapons on the outside that teams will have to deal with. Also, can the D be any worse with the addition of Fowler, a 1st round CB, and Keanu Neal returning? I see less come-from-behind gameplans needed.

The arthritis is a bit of a concern for his longevity, but I think him being injury prone is so overblown. He's missed 3 games due to injury his entire career since starting midway thru his rookie year from the torn ACL in college. Missed a game last year with a strained quad, and missed weeks 16 and 17 in 2018 with a mild knee strain (which he swears he could have played through) when they already had a playoff spot locked up.

 

Rojo: Made a long post in his thread but here's the short version. Guy is very explosive and shows every trait I love in an RB: Burst, power, vision, cutback ability, top-end speed... I see it all looking at his tape. I think Rojo is a lock for GL work and will get 200+ carries on a team with a solid line that will run plenty of 12 personnel with OJ and Gronk, who are 2 of the best blocking TE's in football. Underrated pass catcher too. You agree that Vaughn is a JAG too, why is everyone so quick to crown him over Rojo? I've read plenty about him struggling in pass pro in college, just as everyone is so quick to say about Rojo. Arians eases rookies in, which seems even more plausible with an interrupted offseason (DJ had 35 carries going into week 13 before injuries to Ellington and CJ2k forced him to start his rookie year). The Rojo workout vids with Brady are a sight to see as well, and Brady has already praised him numerous times. Also, I have Rojo slotted in the 6th-7th round range surrounded by other guys with question marks. I just think his upside is being severely overlooked by everyone dismissing him with "lolpasspro".

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8 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

The arthritis is a bit of a concern for his longevity, but I think him being injury prone is so overblown. He's missed 3 games due to injury his entire career since starting midway thru his rookie year from the torn ACL in college. Missed a game last year with a strained quad, and missed weeks 16 and 17 in 2018 with a mild knee strain (which he swears he could have played through) when they already had a playoff spot locked up.

 

I don't think it's that people consider him injury prone. I think it goes back to 2018 when he all of a sudden started getting fewer carries in the second half of the season, especially the low-carry, low-YPA we saw in games 13 and 14 that season. Then there was the report about the arthritis and the concern about how that would affect, not only his long term outlook, but also how his short term outlook might be approached by the Rams. Now it's the concern that asks the question, "When will this begin to effect his NFL career, and how will that effect be felt in fantasy?" 

So I don't think it's about him being injury prone as much as it's about when (or even if) the arthritis issue begins to show up on the field. 

And I think Atlanta is the perfect landing spot for him. 

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55 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

To be honest I go back and forth with Kamara and Zeke.. today was just a Kamara day. I just have a feeling that Pollard is going to be mixed in more than people think and that Kamara has less tread on his tires than Zeke. His pass game floor is unreal, he's gotten 100 targets in all 3 years and I see his TD's doubling (at least) from the 6 he had last year.

 

Just went back to your rankings post (great job too btw) to see your takes on Gurley and Rojo:

Gurley: Agree on some of your points.. It is a pass-1st offense, so he will inherently have a smaller pie to work with, but man I think he gets almost all of that pie (Ito Smith and Brian Hill are terrible). It's a bit tough to predict given that the RB situation has been awful in ATL the past 2 years, but I could see him around 240 carries and 60 catches (Freeman had 59 catches last year), along with unquestioned GL work. They had 362 team carries last year, the same EXACT number as NYG.. anyone fading Saquon because of his pass-1st O (Hyperbole, but think it needs to be said)? I still think he's fairly talented.. he was the RB14 in 15 games last year on an average offense and anemic line that crowded the box once Goff was exposed.  I think the ATL offense is an upgrade, the line is going to be good with Lindstrom/McGary going into year 2, with weapons on the outside that teams will have to deal with. Also, can the D be any worse with the addition of Fowler, a 1st round CB, and Keanu Neal returning? I see less come-from-behind gameplans needed.

The arthritis is a bit of a concern for his longevity, but I think him being injury prone is so overblown. He's missed 3 games due to injury his entire career since starting midway thru his rookie year from the torn ACL in college. Missed a game last year with a strained quad, and missed weeks 16 and 17 in 2018 with a mild knee strain (which he swears he could have played through) when they already had a playoff spot locked up.

 

Rojo: Made a long post in his thread but here's the short version. Guy is very explosive and shows every trait I love in an RB: Burst, power, vision, cutback ability, top-end speed... I see it all looking at his tape. I think Rojo is a lock for GL work and will get 200+ carries on a team with a solid line that will run plenty of 12 personnel with OJ and Gronk, who are 2 of the best blocking TE's in football. Underrated pass catcher too. You agree that Vaughn is a JAG too, why is everyone so quick to crown him over Rojo? I've read plenty about him struggling in pass pro in college, just as everyone is so quick to say about Rojo. Arians eases rookies in, which seems even more plausible with an interrupted offseason (DJ had 35 carries going into week 13 before injuries to Ellington and CJ2k forced him to start his rookie year). The Rojo workout vids with Brady are a sight to see as well, and Brady has already praised him numerous times. Also, I have Rojo slotted in the 6th-7th round range surrounded by other guys with question marks. I just think his upside is being severely overlooked by everyone dismissing him with "lolpasspro".

Pollard is a nice player and Dallas does have some incentive to preserve Zeke--still think his volume gives him a higher floor+ceiling even if it isn't as much as prior years

Agree that Gurley's backups are terrible, though the Giants comparison is skewed by Saquon missing games and forcing them to run less.

Obviously he's better than his backups by a lot but he just looks like he is running in mud nowadays. Suppose I would still take him over DJ/Bell but his upside to me is from goal line and pass catching exclusively and not sure it's enough to negate inefficiency

For RoJo I'll agree with the bolded and agree he looked much better than his rookie year (though that'd be hard not to) but I just don't like the dynamics of a coach who tore into him handpicking his own RB with decent capital. With Wirfs the OL should be better but I really don't think Gronk is much of a factor at this point. He didn't come out of retirement to block for Ronald Jones and Ke'Shawn Vaughn

DJ had a limited role on the ground, but he was catching passes--which I think might turn out to be a more valuable role in the Bucs offense if we are calling talent not too different (which I personally think it is--you seem to rate RoJo's talent level higher by a good amount) I just see a messy RBBC with RoJo ahead on the ground and Vaughn in the air and both hanging around

If he can push out Vaughn a true lead back in Tampa does have upside--no doubt about it

As for Vaughn, his analytics and production profile is pretty sound, but I agree he did not pop on tape at all. Good vision and hands, but not particularly elusive, quick or well balanced. Giving him a slight benefit of the doubt because playing for Vanderbilt in the best conference in football is a hard situation for anyone to look great in, but you're right that this leaves the door open for Rojo much more than Dobbins, CEH or Swift would have

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5 hours ago, Olliemets said:

Here's my stab in .5 PPR. Definitely drinking the kool-aid on a few guys (Sanders, Montgomery, Gurley) and are lower than consensus on others (Ekeler, DJ, Carson), but what's the fun/value of this if you're just sticking to ECR?

One of the best so far to me. 

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His coach hardly “tore into him” - just said he didn’t view him as an effective pass-catcher.

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Tier 1

1. CMC

2. SBarkley

3. EElliot

Tier 2

4. AKamara

5. DCook

Tier 3

6. DHenry

7. JMixon

8. JJacobs

9. NChubb

10. MSanders

Tier 4

11. KDrake

12. CEH

Tier 5

13. JConner

14. AJones

15. CCarson

16. LFournette

Tier 6

17. AEkeler

18. JTaylor

19. CAkers

20. TGurley

Tier 7

21. DSingletary

22. DGuice

23. DMontgomery

24. MGordon

25. DJohnson

26. MIngram

27. RMostert

28. DSwift

29. LBell

30. JKDobbins

Tier 8

31. JHoward

32. KHunt

33. SMichel

34. RoJo

35. MBreida

36.TColeman

37. DWilliams

38. KJohnson

39. KVaughn

40. CEdmonds

41. JJackson

42. MMack

43. AMattison

44. PLindsay

45. AJDillon

46. TPollard

47. LMurray

48. RArmstead

49. ZMoss

50. DHarris

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2 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Tier 1

1. CMC

2. SBarkley

3. EElliot

Tier 2

 

Proper 👍🏻

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A guy with 1500+ yards and 19 TDs last season, averaging 5.5 yards per touch and 70 total yards a game over his career...keeps ending up in the 4th and 5th 'tier' of people's rankings. Amazing.

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i keep seeing singletary in the 20s

i hope everyone else feels that way i draft with 

 

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3 hours ago, predator_05 said:

A guy with 1500+ yards and 19 TDs last season, averaging 5.5 yards per touch and 70 total yards a game over his career...keeps ending up in the 4th and 5th 'tier' of people's rankings. Amazing.

I hear you to a certain degree regarding Jones. Personally I don’t see myself taking him in the first 2 rounds of a draft but will snaffle him up if he was somehow sitting there later than that. Last year was a 3rd round pick generally but there was considerable upside which he obviously delivered to the maximum extent. That same value doesn’t exist this year and was further complicated by some puzzling decisions by Green Bay. Drafting another RB and QB early in the draft has done nothing to help Jones’s cause. WR or OL would have made so much more sense. Why draft a RB so high if you don’t plan on using him? It’s possible they dump Williams but right now would rather roll with Sanders, Drake or Jacobs in the second round rather than Jones where there appears to be more clarity. Not doubting his talent but rather the situation.

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3 hours ago, Flyers_28 said:

i keep seeing singletary in the 20s

i hope everyone else feels that way i draft with 

 


He’s a lower RB2 to me, which puts him in the 20s. I don’t dislike Singletary, but I don’t believe he’s anywhere near a RB1 or anything. 

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7 minutes ago, Black_Panther said:

I hear you to a certain degree regarding Jones. Personally I don’t see myself taking him in the first 2 rounds of a draft but will snaffle him up if he was somehow sitting there later than that. Last year was a 3rd round pick generally but there was considerable upside which he obviously delivered to the maximum extent. That same value doesn’t exist this year and was further complicated by some puzzling decisions by Green Bay. Drafting another RB and QB early in the draft has done nothing to help Jones’s cause. WR or OL would have made so much more sense. Why draft a RB so high if you don’t plan on using him? It’s possible they dump Williams but right now would rather roll with Sanders, Drake or Jacobs in the second round rather than Jones where there appears to be more clarity. Not doubting his talent but rather the situation.


If you don’t like him the first two rounds, that means you view him as a RB2. Can’t say I agree with that. He’s still a RB1 to me, even with Dillon in town and the coming TD regression. 

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


If you don’t like him the first two rounds, that means you view him as a RB2. Can’t say I agree with that. He’s still a RB1 to me, even with Dillon in town and the coming TD regression. 

He would be in that rb12-14 range which I guess technically would fall in the low RB1 or high rb2 but just unlikely to be drafting him over those aforementioned rbs or the consensus top 6 wrs or even Kelce, Kittle. Just don’t see myself picking him unless I was drafting 1st and picked him up at that turn pick in rd2-3.

Was a league winner last year - just doesn’t feel that way this year. Always looking for upside and opportunity rather than past performance

Edited by Black_Panther

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On 7/4/2020 at 4:21 PM, predator_05 said:

A guy with 1500+ yards and 19 TDs last season, averaging 5.5 yards per touch and 70 total yards a game over his career...keeps ending up in the 4th and 5th 'tier' of people's rankings. Amazing.

 

There are too many reasons to dislike Jones and its got noting to do with his talent.

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On 7/4/2020 at 4:21 PM, predator_05 said:

A guy with 1500+ yards and 19 TDs last season, averaging 5.5 yards per touch and 70 total yards a game over his career...keeps ending up in the 4th and 5th 'tier' of people's rankings. Amazing.

Quite simply 19 TDs aren’t repeatable. He’s a RB1 but not a high end one my top 12 are:

Tier 1:

1. CMC

2. Barkley

Tier 2:

3: Zeke

4: Kamara

Tier 3:

5: Cook (if he reports to camp, if he holds out at all he’ll move way down)

6: Henry

Tier  4:

7: Chubb

8: Mixon

9: Jones

Tier 5:

10: Jacobs

11: CEH

12: Sanders

 

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40 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

Bump one final time for any last minute leagues drafting

I'll bite.

1 - McCaffrey, Barkley.  Nuff said.

2 - Zeke, Kamara, Henry.  Zeke is the most consistent RB in the league.  AK41 is pretty consistent as well, with exactly 81 catches each of the last 3 years.  Henry gonna Henry.

3 - Cook, CEH, Jacobs.  Cook falls to third tier because injury concerns (missed 19 games, played 29).  If you're not worried about that, he's a great pick.  CEH is a rookie, but KC is committed to him and he'll have Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Hardman creating space for him.  Jacobs, in my mind, is poised for a breakout and there aren't too many questions with him.

4 - Sanders, Drake, Mixon, Conner, Chubb.  All have top 5 potential, but have either health or situation question marks.

5 - AJones, Mostert, Ekeler, Gurley, DJ, Carson

6 - Ingram, Gordon, Hunt, Bell, Fournette

7 - Akers, Gibson, Moss, Dobbins, Taylor, Swift, Howard, Mack, Singletary, RoJo, Kerryon, White, Harris, Michel, Lindsay, Monty, Robinson, Cohen, Murray, Breida

8 - Mattison, Edmonds, Pollard, Ozigbo, Thompson, Scott, Henderson, etc

 

These are how I'd break it down in tiers, though not necessarily order I'd draft in.  It all depends on what you're looking for with where you're picking at.

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46 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

I'll bite.

1 - McCaffrey, Barkley.  Nuff said.

2 - Zeke, Kamara, Henry.  Zeke is the most consistent RB in the league.  AK41 is pretty consistent as well, with exactly 81 catches each of the last 3 years.  Henry gonna Henry.

3 - Cook, CEH, Jacobs.  Cook falls to third tier because injury concerns (missed 19 games, played 29).  If you're not worried about that, he's a great pick.  CEH is a rookie, but KC is committed to him and he'll have Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, Watkins, and Hardman creating space for him.  Jacobs, in my mind, is poised for a breakout and there aren't too many questions with him.

4 - Sanders, Drake, Mixon, Conner, Chubb.  All have top 5 potential, but have either health or situation question marks.

5 - AJones, Mostert, Ekeler, Gurley, DJ, Carson

6 - Ingram, Gordon, Hunt, Bell, Fournette

7 - Akers, Gibson, Moss, Dobbins, Taylor, Swift, Howard, Mack, Singletary, RoJo, Kerryon, White, Harris, Michel, Lindsay, Monty, Robinson, Cohen, Murray, Breida

8 - Mattison, Edmonds, Pollard, Ozigbo, Thompson, Scott, Henderson, etc

 

These are how I'd break it down in tiers, though not necessarily order I'd draft in.  It all depends on what you're looking for with where you're picking at.

Mostert a tier too high otherwise I like it 

Edited by ponchsox

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Half point PPR:

1. CMC

2. Saquon, Zeke

3. Henry, Cook

4. Kamara, Mixon, Ekeler, CEH

5. Jacobs, Sanders, Jones

6. Conner, Drake, Chubb, Carson

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Let's get this thread moving again.  Here are my top 25 (PPR or half PPR) running backs for rest of season (Week 6 onward):

1.  Kamara.  What can you say?  The guy is being used like a mule with 38 catches in five games to go with 61 carries.  This offense will always be plus and Kamara is the engine.  It's hard to imagine him not ending up as the overall #1 RB if he stays healthy, even without an inordinate number of touchdowns.

2.  Henry.  Volume is king and nobody bellies up to the bar like Henry.  Of the healthy players he's the only RB whose offense is completely built around him (eh, maybe Mixon).  Don't be fooled by the low yards per carry.  It'll spike, and when you are getting 25 carries a game it doesn't take much to run up a ton of yards and TDs.  

3.  Elliott.  A week ago I'd have had him above Henry but the Dak injury is concerning.  Until I get to see a couple games with Dalton at the helm I'd put him here but unless you're actually considering a Henry-for-Elliott swap the difference between 2 and 3 is nil anyway.

TIER BREAK

4.  McCaffrey.  You're playing with fire with these long-term injury type guys but nobody other than Kamara this season appears to have the reliability plus the league-winning upside if he's on the field than McCaffrey.  

5.  Jones.  Color me a bit skeptical about Jones being a top tier fantasy RB.  He's never felt like that bellcow type guy to me but if he's going to keep getting carries in the mid-teens plus a fair amount of passing game work on a dynamite offense he's going to be incredibly valuable.  And his workload isn't being eaten into in the meaningful way that you might have suspected this summer.

6.  Cook.  Is this going to be his first injury of the year or his only injury of the year?  Obviously an alpha on a team that needs to feature him heavily.  And he's game-flow proof.  

TIER BREAK

7.  Jacobs.  Huge volume on a team that wants to establish the run.  This offense is something good too, and only has room to improve as the young WRs gain reps.  Don't buy the coachspeak about Booker - this guy has no meaningful competition for snaps as the talent gulf is huge.

8.  Mixon.  Big volume on a lousy team.  Game-flow concerns.  Still, can you doubt the volume or the talent?

9.  Carson.  Carson has more upside than maybe anyone else in this tier but there's room for concern.  He's already dealing with an injury and the return of Penny gives me some concern he might get his workload eaten into.  Still, he's a locked and loaded RB1.

10.  Taylor.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if Taylor is #3 or so on this list in a month.  Don't forget what kind of talent profile this guy had coming out of college.  He hasn't flashed it yet but he's getting every opportunity to explode and it wouldn't surprise at all to see him pop one of those "16 carries for 210 yards" games anchored by two long TD runs.  

TIER BREAK - Here come the question marks

11.  Sanders.  Let's face it, this team has been a huge disappointment, and I still haven't seen enough of this guy to be sure he's a special talent.  Where's the five catches a game we were teased with?

12.  Hunt.  An exceptional player who now has the job to himself, "priority add" D'ernest Johnson notwithstanding.  I'm probably too low on him but can you count on him in the playoffs with Chubb coming back?

13.  Mostert.  He's a total game breaker and SF needs to commit to the run.  Having McKinnon nipping at his heels doesn't help, nor does Jimmy G.'s possible implosion, already in progress.

14.  Gurley.  It gets ugly in this tier.  But Gurley gets plenty of work in a good offense, he has shown enough receiving skills in the past that he could catch some more passes, and he's actually playing okay.  

15.  Conner.  Good offense which is known for cranking out fantasy points for RBs.  There was a lot of drama earlier this season and it feels like Snell or McFarland could pop up and essentially do the same job, which gives him a tenuous grasp on the lead role.

16.  Montgomery.  Look at the depth chart behind this guy.  This is a team that is going to be committed to the run and now will use Montgomery more in the passing game with Cohen laid up.  Talent is questionable to be sure but the Bears are going to be in most games and using him as a lead back.  The guy was on the field 85% and 81% of snaps the last two games.  Those are "alpha dog" numbers.  And yes, if you're looking for volume at an undervalued price right now, go seek out the Montgomery owner.

17.  Drake.  Everyone's bagged on Drake, myself included, but 17 carries per game for an offense of this caliber?  Given the past talent he's flashed I wonder if he hasn't just been a bit unlucky.  If he has a blow up game he's shooting up the charts again.  

18.  Robinson.  I'm often too harsh on these UDFA JAG type guys but it's awfully hard to believe he can keep up the kind of season he's having.  

19.  Gaskin.  In the last three games, since he's settled in as the true lead back, he's getting 16 carries and 4.3 catches per game.  The offense is better than expected.  The guy has a good floor.

20.  CEH.  As I've discussed in his thread.

21.  David Johnson.  I have no idea what Houston is going to be doing under the new regime and I still suspect Johnson is washed.  He has looked serviceable this season though.

22.  Chubb.  Injured players are hard to rank.  If healthy I'd put him at 9 or so.  If Hunt got injured he'd be like 5th.  He's been great.

23.  Gibson.  Why would an NFL team draft a WR to play RB and then use someone else as the pass catching back?  Who knows.  Gibson has a lot of ceiling if they decide to turn him loose.  It hasn't happened yet.

24.  RoJo.  Fournette is such a flake that I have a feeling Arians is going to have to give this guy the volume whether he likes it or not.  And he's not bad as a runner, not bad at all.

25.  MG3.  Huge question mark here with the potential suspension coming, and his numbers are inflated a bit by Lindsay having been out for a while.  But the volume is going to be there and Gordon can still play.

Some bonus names to watch in case they have been or get dropped by frustrated owners or during the byes.  (To do this list I looked up a consensus list of players outside the ROS top 40.)

Swift.  Rookies often work their way into the job in the second half of a season.  If Detroit comes to its senses and decides to throw in the towel on the immortal AD, look out.

Akers (Henderson too if for some reason he hits the wire).  Big draft capital and this guy will probably improve fast.  

Pollard.  Zeke is indestructible and the offense is weaker now without Dak but if this guy ever got his shot the sky would be the limit IMO.

Snell/McFarland.  The Pittsburgh job is valuable and it wouldn't stun me if either of them had it, and soon.

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