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8 hours ago, cdd10 said:

I think he gets so much hate because he is not that good.

confirmed. Montgomery sucks.

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14 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

confirmed. Montgomery sucks.

 

Rigorous fantasy analysis.  Montgomery still had 11.7 points in .5 PPR, and had a TD reversed.  

Whatever strange vendetta you have against Montgomery aside, he had 19 carries and 5 targets.  That is incredible, RB1-type volume.  When a player can average 3.1 YPC and still put up double-digit fantasy points, it tells you they have a pretty safe floor.  

I just don't see how Montgomery falls outside of the Top 24 on his current volume.  

Regarding talent, I think Montgomery gets penalized too much because he isn't exciting and the Bears have a bad offensive line.  He's hit in the backfield on half of his carries.  He's not a burner or an elite talent, but he has good size, good footwork, and decent vision.  

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Taylor’s usage was encouraging. They drew up some plays for him in the passing game and he got the bulk or the carries. Unfortunately they drew up a trey burton run inside the 5....

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19 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Rigorous fantasy analysis.  Montgomery still had 11.7 points in .5 PPR, and had a TD reversed.  

Whatever strange vendetta you have against Montgomery aside, he had 19 carries and 5 targets.  That is incredible, RB1-type volume.  When a player can average 3.1 YPC and still put up double-digit fantasy points, it tells you they have a pretty safe floor.  

I just don't see how Montgomery falls outside of the Top 24 on his current volume.  

Regarding talent, I think Montgomery gets penalized too much because he isn't exciting and the Bears have a bad offensive line.  He's hit in the backfield on half of his carries.  He's not a burner or an elite talent, but he has good size, good footwork, and decent vision.  

Bears have the #12 ranked offensive line I do believe coming into this game. That's pretty good.

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7 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

Bears have the #12 ranked offensive line I do believe coming into this game. That's pretty good.

Think we can put the blame on Nagy's play calling at this point.  No RB has done anything in his offense.

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On 10/18/2020 at 2:13 PM, youngrice said:

Think we can put the blame on Nagy's play calling at this point.  No RB has done anything in his offense.

I’ve said it with Howard and I’ve said it with Monty:

We criticize coaches all the time for not getting the most of their QBs and having a bad offense but for some reason that only refers to passing offense. Why do we not extend the same criticism to calling a running scheme?

Nagy is one of the worst in the league without a question. They haven’t had a bad line for most of his tenure yet almost every back struggles to reach 4 YPC. I’ve watched tape multiple times and their run play calling is laughably pathetic for an NFL team. It almost seems like he only uses the run to setup the pass instead of having an actual competent run game. 

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16 minutes ago, JEREMY LIN said:

Where would you guys rank Mixon and Taylor moving forward?

 

10 - 15 range for me, with 5 - 10 upside.

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14 minutes ago, JEREMY LIN said:

Where would you guys rank Mixon and Taylor moving forward?

Mixon is a RB1, somewhere 9-12. His volume alone makes him valuable. Honestly, I would put Taylor in that same grouping for the same reasons. They did a good job of throwing to Taylor last week which was really encouraging. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

I’ve said it with Howard and I’ve said it with Monty:

We criticize coaches all the time for not getting the most of their QBs and having a bad offense but for some reason that only refers to passing offense. Why do we not extend the same criticism to calling a running scheme?

Nagy is one of the worst in the league without a question. They haven’t had a bad line for most of his tenure yet almost every back struggles to reach 4 YPC. I’ve watched tape multiple times and their run play calling is laughably pathetic for an NFL team. It almost seems like he only uses the run to setup the pass instead of having an actual competent run game. 

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6 hours ago, JEREMY LIN said:

Where would you guys rank Mixon and Taylor moving forward?

I had them at 8 and 10 last week and feel like that's still about right. 

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On 10/17/2020 at 2:12 PM, KennyWoo said:

 

5.  Jones.  Color me a bit skeptical about Jones being a top tier fantasy RB.  He's never felt like that bellcow type guy to me but if he's going to keep getting carries in the mid-teens plus a fair amount of passing game work on a dynamite offense he's going to be incredibly valuable.  And his workload isn't being eaten into in the meaningful way that you might have suspected this summer.

I used to feel exactly the same way about him not being a bellcow and I wasn't avoiding him by any means but I didn't value him where I should have coming into this season. Not as many shares as I'd like. I usually don't listen as much with most players but the talking heads have always got to me with Jones and his usage. Not doing that again anytime soon. This guy is awesome. If he isn't scoring he's making big plays. Game after game after game. He's my #2. He's my #2 because he finds his way there anyhow in scoring and has done so for well over a year despite having less touches. If he ever gets more touches he has clearcut #1 overall upside to me.

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3 minutes ago, Benjamin1984 said:

I used to feel exactly the same way about him not being a bellcow and I wasn't avoiding him by any means but I didn't value him where I should have coming into this season. Not as many shares as I'd like. I usually don't listen as much with most players but the talking heads have always got to me with Jones and his usage. Not doing that again anytime soon. This guy is awesome. If he isn't scoring he's making big plays. Game after game after game. He's my #2. He's my #2 because he finds his way there anyhow in scoring and has done so for well over a year despite having less touches. If he ever gets more touches he has clearcut #1 overall upside to me.

 

Agreed. Seems like he is underrated every year, but he might be the most efficient guy with his touches when it comes to fantasy. Reliably punches in TDs and has Rodgers throwing dump offs to him in a highly efficient offense year after year. Always seems like people see him as a 5-10 RB coming into the draft, but he always has reliable 1-5 upside and creeps in there.

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Ranking wise would you guys say A.gibson and D swift are ok the same tier ? 
with upside? 
man i just wish they would let them get more work 😐

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5 minutes ago, HOF12 said:

Ranking wise would you guys say A.gibson and D swift are ok the same tier ? 
with upside? 
man i just wish they would let them get more work 😐

I would say so. High potential guys held back by their coaches. My friend is trying to unload both of them to me for Montgomery. I am tempted to do it cause Montgomery is so boring but I just can't pull the trigger. Gibson and Swift are so uncertain and will probably split carries the whole year. I love their talent though.

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6 hours ago, hangin n wangin said:

I would say so. High potential guys held back by their coaches. My friend is trying to unload both of them to me for Montgomery. I am tempted to do it cause Montgomery is so boring but I just can't pull the trigger. Gibson and Swift are so uncertain and will probably split carries the whole year. I love their talent though.


do it. Ezzzz call

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On 10/17/2020 at 2:12 PM, KennyWoo said:

Let's get this thread moving again.  Here are my top 25 (PPR or half PPR) running backs for rest of season (Week 6 onward):

1.  Kamara.  What can you say?  The guy is being used like a mule with 38 catches in five games to go with 61 carries.  This offense will always be plus and Kamara is the engine.  It's hard to imagine him not ending up as the overall #1 RB if he stays healthy, even without an inordinate number of touchdowns.

2.  Henry.  Volume is king and nobody bellies up to the bar like Henry.  Of the healthy players he's the only RB whose offense is completely built around him (eh, maybe Mixon).  Don't be fooled by the low yards per carry.  It'll spike, and when you are getting 25 carries a game it doesn't take much to run up a ton of yards and TDs.  

3.  Elliott.  A week ago I'd have had him above Henry but the Dak injury is concerning.  Until I get to see a couple games with Dalton at the helm I'd put him here but unless you're actually considering a Henry-for-Elliott swap the difference between 2 and 3 is nil anyway.

TIER BREAK

4.  McCaffrey.  You're playing with fire with these long-term injury type guys but nobody other than Kamara this season appears to have the reliability plus the league-winning upside if he's on the field than McCaffrey.  

5.  Jones.  Color me a bit skeptical about Jones being a top tier fantasy RB.  He's never felt like that bellcow type guy to me but if he's going to keep getting carries in the mid-teens plus a fair amount of passing game work on a dynamite offense he's going to be incredibly valuable.  And his workload isn't being eaten into in the meaningful way that you might have suspected this summer.

6.  Cook.  Is this going to be his first injury of the year or his only injury of the year?  Obviously an alpha on a team that needs to feature him heavily.  And he's game-flow proof.  

TIER BREAK

7.  Jacobs.  Huge volume on a team that wants to establish the run.  This offense is something good too, and only has room to improve as the young WRs gain reps.  Don't buy the coachspeak about Booker - this guy has no meaningful competition for snaps as the talent gulf is huge.

8.  Mixon.  Big volume on a lousy team.  Game-flow concerns.  Still, can you doubt the volume or the talent?

9.  Carson.  Carson has more upside than maybe anyone else in this tier but there's room for concern.  He's already dealing with an injury and the return of Penny gives me some concern he might get his workload eaten into.  Still, he's a locked and loaded RB1.

10.  Taylor.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if Taylor is #3 or so on this list in a month.  Don't forget what kind of talent profile this guy had coming out of college.  He hasn't flashed it yet but he's getting every opportunity to explode and it wouldn't surprise at all to see him pop one of those "16 carries for 210 yards" games anchored by two long TD runs.  

TIER BREAK - Here come the question marks

11.  Sanders.  Let's face it, this team has been a huge disappointment, and I still haven't seen enough of this guy to be sure he's a special talent.  Where's the five catches a game we were teased with?

12.  Hunt.  An exceptional player who now has the job to himself, "priority add" D'ernest Johnson notwithstanding.  I'm probably too low on him but can you count on him in the playoffs with Chubb coming back?

13.  Mostert.  He's a total game breaker and SF needs to commit to the run.  Having McKinnon nipping at his heels doesn't help, nor does Jimmy G.'s possible implosion, already in progress.

14.  Gurley.  It gets ugly in this tier.  But Gurley gets plenty of work in a good offense, he has shown enough receiving skills in the past that he could catch some more passes, and he's actually playing okay.  

15.  Conner.  Good offense which is known for cranking out fantasy points for RBs.  There was a lot of drama earlier this season and it feels like Snell or McFarland could pop up and essentially do the same job, which gives him a tenuous grasp on the lead role.

16.  Montgomery.  Look at the depth chart behind this guy.  This is a team that is going to be committed to the run and now will use Montgomery more in the passing game with Cohen laid up.  Talent is questionable to be sure but the Bears are going to be in most games and using him as a lead back.  The guy was on the field 85% and 81% of snaps the last two games.  Those are "alpha dog" numbers.  And yes, if you're looking for volume at an undervalued price right now, go seek out the Montgomery owner.

17.  Drake.  Everyone's bagged on Drake, myself included, but 17 carries per game for an offense of this caliber?  Given the past talent he's flashed I wonder if he hasn't just been a bit unlucky.  If he has a blow up game he's shooting up the charts again.  

18.  Robinson.  I'm often too harsh on these UDFA JAG type guys but it's awfully hard to believe he can keep up the kind of season he's having.  

19.  Gaskin.  In the last three games, since he's settled in as the true lead back, he's getting 16 carries and 4.3 catches per game.  The offense is better than expected.  The guy has a good floor.

20.  CEH.  As I've discussed in his thread.

21.  David Johnson.  I have no idea what Houston is going to be doing under the new regime and I still suspect Johnson is washed.  He has looked serviceable this season though.

22.  Chubb.  Injured players are hard to rank.  If healthy I'd put him at 9 or so.  If Hunt got injured he'd be like 5th.  He's been great.

23.  Gibson.  Why would an NFL team draft a WR to play RB and then use someone else as the pass catching back?  Who knows.  Gibson has a lot of ceiling if they decide to turn him loose.  It hasn't happened yet.

24.  RoJo.  Fournette is such a flake that I have a feeling Arians is going to have to give this guy the volume whether he likes it or not.  And he's not bad as a runner, not bad at all.

25.  MG3.  Huge question mark here with the potential suspension coming, and his numbers are inflated a bit by Lindsay having been out for a while.  But the volume is going to be there and Gordon can still play.

Some bonus names to watch in case they have been or get dropped by frustrated owners or during the byes.  (To do this list I looked up a consensus list of players outside the ROS top 40.)

Swift.  Rookies often work their way into the job in the second half of a season.  If Detroit comes to its senses and decides to throw in the towel on the immortal AD, look out.

Akers (Henderson too if for some reason he hits the wire).  Big draft capital and this guy will probably improve fast.  

Pollard.  Zeke is indestructible and the offense is weaker now without Dak but if this guy ever got his shot the sky would be the limit IMO.

Snell/McFarland.  The Pittsburgh job is valuable and it wouldn't stun me if either of them had it, and soon.

 

I wanted to revisit the tier I bolded. Now that we have another week in the books, does anyone thing any of the RBs in this tier have elevated themselves to a higher tier? Also, of the RBs included in this tier (listed below) which ones do you think will be the most comparable with Robinson and Drake rest of season? 

11.  Sanders.  

12.  Hunt.  

13.  Mostert. 

14.  Gurley.  

15.  Conner.  

16.  Montgomery. 

17.  Drake.  

18.  Robinson.

19.  Gaskin. 

20.  CEH.

21.  David Johnson. 

22.  Chubb.  

23.  Gibson.  

24.  RoJo.  

25.  MG3.  

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4 hours ago, ponchsox said:

Cook on the bottom of tier two is a joke. 


you gonna put him above CMC?  jones I can see. Prob zeke too. But both are arguable.  So at worst he's 2 spots too low. Wouldn’t call that “a joke”. 

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11 minutes ago, cgu112 said:


you gonna put him above CMC?  jones I can see. Prob zeke too. But both are arguable.  So at worst he's 2 spots too low. Wouldn’t call that “a joke”. 

And I wouldnt necessarily  say its crazy with his injury history and the fact MIN just lost 2 big pass rushers and safety. They should be throwing the ball more

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On 10/22/2020 at 7:46 AM, ponchsox said:

Cook on the bottom of tier two is a joke. 

 

On 10/22/2020 at 9:25 AM, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

ROJO at 24?? ok..

 

It's easy to criticize someone's list. It's a lot harder to make your own list while trying to peer into the future, divide it into tiers, and offer thoughts on each RB. 

No offense intended, and it's certainly not just you guys. 

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