Boudewijn

Allen Robinson 2020 Outlook

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Allen Robinson's best season was in 2015, age 22: 80/1400/14.

usatsi_12052351.jpg?w=1000&h=600&crop=1

That sophomore season was legendary; only 4 WRs had a 1200+/10+ season at age 22 (Moss, Beckham, Fitzgerald, Robinson). Only 65 did it at all in the past 40 years, and not a single WR did it in the 70s. No-one did it in 2019, as a matter of fact.

Getting such a great season requires a perfect storm, heaps of talent, AND a great QB. 

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Almost all of the WRs that managed to do it did it with good or great QBs - Robinson managed to do it with Blake bloody Bortles.

So we can't deny that there is talent in the kid, but then:

- 2016 with the same number of Bortels targets he dropped to 883/6
- 2017 was a disaster, getting injured for the season on his second target
- 2018 was decent. He missed another 4 games with a groin injury but would have been on target for a 1000 yd season
- 2019 finally looked a bit like the Robinson we all wanted to see with 98/1147/7.

The question of course is what 2020 will bring - another 1000+ yard season? Or more injuries? Or something mostly forgettable?

I don't think he has the same power and explosiveness he had in 2015. That season out of 22 red zone looks, he got 12 TDs; last season they threw him the ball 20 times in the red zone and he had half the TDs. In 2015 he had 13 catches of 30+ yards, in 2019 that was 6.

So I don't think 2015 will come around again for Robinson, but let's hope he stays healthy and at least gives us a WR1 season.

 

 

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Excellent work as usual - thanks, Boudewijn!

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Really loved his production last year, was really bummed I didn't land him anywhere but going to remedy that this year 

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I like Robinson a lot in fantasy this year.  Tore his ACL in 2017 which usually takes guys a full season plus to recover from.  In hindsight, it makes sense 2018 was a bit of a down year, and then he got back to better in 2019.  He was a WR1 last year with Trubisky as his QB, so if Mitch or Foles are the starter this year I don't think it impedes Robinson in a sense, but caps his ceiling.  1400 and 12 probably will not happen this year with those QBs, but to see him finish around 90/1000/8 is definitely possible.  Also the opportunity to should be there for Robinson.  There is virtually zero competition in the passing game.  Patterson, Ginn, Miller, Graham, etc. are extremely uninspiring.  Miller has flashed potential but he can't stay healthy.  He received 153 targets last year, #4 in the league.  With no added competition, and maybe SOME progress from Mitch/Foles taking over, maybe some of those targets improve in quality.  

I know ADP right now is useless, but currently the WR13 off the board on FCC, and ranked the WR9 on FP.  So seems to be ranked right around where he should be.  Probably won't get a ton of "value" out of Robinson, but I think he's less likely to bust given his opportunity and lack of competition for targets.   

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I like Robinson but I swore off Matt Nagy and his bullshit so I’m out. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I like Robinson but I swore off Matt Nagy and his bullshit so I’m out. 

 

Nagy get a little too much flak. Its not like he was the guy who traded up to draft Trubisky.

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2 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

Nagy get a little too much flak. Its not like he was the guy who traded up to draft Trubisky.

I’ve been saying he’s the most overrated coach in the entire league since his first season. Won COY after being dragged to the playoffs by his defense despite being an “offensive mind”.

It’s also hilarious to watch commentators act like he’s some genius when he runs his dumb plays that fail 90% of the time. 

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50 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I’ve been saying he’s the most overrated coach in the entire league since his first season. Won COY after being dragged to the playoffs by his defense despite being an “offensive mind”.

It’s also hilarious to watch commentators act like he’s some genius when he runs his dumb plays that fail 90% of the time. 

Maybe it's my KC bias, but Nagy isn't that bad. He definitely has some of the sniffing his own farts-type arrogance on playcalling but covered up Trubisky being garbage for a year (he even showed signs of being a franchise QB) and had a top 10 scoring offense. Just from that, I think he is a good coach as long as he has the right personnel for his system. That is not Trubisky. Nagy has a massive playbook and had to discard a decent amount of it because it was too complex for Trubisky. 

As for Robinson, Foles is (sadly) the best QB he has ever played with and not afraid to throw downfield. I think both Robinson and Miller will benefit with him as long as the offensive line is even decent. I see a low WR1 ceiling for A-Rob

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Posted (edited)

A Rob is a buy for me everywhere this season. He's basically QB proof when healthy and, sadly, Foles could legitimately be the best QB he's every played with in his football career--additionally, could help light a fire under Trubisky and return him to 2018 form. He has possibly the worst competition for targets of any WR1 in the league and game flow should regularly be in his favor. He will be smack in the middle of his prime entering the season at age 27 and two years removed from surgery. It won't be surprising at all to see him duplicate or improve on last years 98/1147/7 line. Let people take sexier names like DJ Moore, Odell and JuJu and sit back and let at a likely top 10 receiver fall to you at his WR14 ADP.

Edited by paulwall29
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On 5/19/2020 at 2:28 PM, Gohawks said:

I’ve been saying he’s the most overrated coach in the entire league since his first season. Won COY after being dragged to the playoffs by his defense despite being an “offensive mind”.

It’s also hilarious to watch commentators act like he’s some genius when he runs his dumb plays that fail 90% of the time. 

Everyone knows Gase is the most overrated piece of garbage of a coach in football. Do not take that away from Jets fans... the only thing the Jets are leading the league in... shittiest coach. 

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1 hour ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Everyone knows Gase is the most overrated piece of garbage of a coach in football. Do not take that away from Jets fans... the only thing the Jets are leading the league in... shittiest coach. 

He’s not overrated. Everyone knows he sucks.

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On 5/19/2020 at 2:31 PM, mocha4313 said:

Maybe it's my KC bias, but Nagy isn't that bad. He definitely has some of the sniffing his own farts-type arrogance on playcalling but covered up Trubisky being garbage for a year (he even showed signs of being a franchise QB) and had a top 10 scoring offense. Just from that, I think he is a good coach as long as he has the right personnel for his system. That is not Trubisky. Nagy has a massive playbook and had to discard a decent amount of it because it was too complex for Trubisky. 

As for Robinson, Foles is (sadly) the best QB he has ever played with and not afraid to throw downfield. I think both Robinson and Miller will benefit with him as long as the offensive line is even decent. I see a low WR1 ceiling for A-Rob

In 2018 Trubisky was 17th in yards and 13th in TDs. He did have the 4th most rushing yards but the top 10 scoring team was all due to the defensive. So much great field position wasted.

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12 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

A Rob is a buy for me everywhere this season. He's basically QB proof when healthy and, sadly, Foles could legitimately be the best QB he's every played with in his football career--additionally, could help light a fire under Trubisky and return him to 2018 form. He has possibly the worst competition for targets of any WR1 in the league and game flow should regularly be in his favor. He will be smack in the middle of his prime entering the season at age 27 and two years removed from surgery. It won't be surprising at all to see him duplicate or improve on last years 98/1147/7 line. Let people take sexier names like DJ Moore, Odell and JuJu and sit back and let at a likely top 10 receiver fall to you at his WR14 ADP.

 

Oh, and forgot to add that he is in a contract year playing for what will be the last big contract of his career. Giggity.

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This man has been a bonafide WR1 with Bortles and Trubisky throwing him the ball. I think he can easily be a Top 8 WR if Foles wins the job and stays healthy. He'd certainly be far better than anything he's had to work with at QB. He is a huge value at current ADP because everyone is so afraid of the Bears QB room and offense overall... not that I blame them.

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Quietly a very solid guy despite the terrible QBs he's dealt with in his whole career. So hoping that Nick Foles wins the job.  Yeah, I know Allen Robinson was productive with Trashbisky, but I don't want to own him with that idiot running the show.  The poor excuse for a QB who should have been Mahomes or Watson says all the right things, but just doesn't produce when he's on the field.  I say it's a lack of talent.  Trashbisky defenders, of which there are few, will say it's a combination of injury, scheme, and lack of discipline.  It's hilarious that Trashbisky still thinks the Bears are his team.  https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29303399/mitchell-trubisky-says-nick-foles-deal-bears-my-team

 

 

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17 hours ago, CooL said:

Quietly a very solid guy despite the terrible QBs he's dealt with in his whole career. So hoping that Nick Foles wins the job.  Yeah, I know Allen Robinson was productive with Trashbisky, but I don't want to own him with that idiot running the show.  The poor excuse for a QB who should have been Mahomes or Watson says all the right things, but just doesn't produce when he's on the field.  I say it's a lack of talent.  Trashbisky defenders, of which there are few, will say it's a combination of injury, scheme, and lack of discipline.  It's hilarious that Trashbisky still thinks the Bears are his team.  https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29303399/mitchell-trubisky-says-nick-foles-deal-bears-my-team

 

 

I hear he is a fan of boobs, though.

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He's a guy i consider myself par with.   Agree wholeheartedly that he could be so much more productive in a different offense, but that time might come next year.   I dont think I care which QB is throwing him the ball- he did just fine with Mitch, and Foles is probably better, but despite his legacy i dont think Foles is coming in and lifting A-Rob to All-Pro numbers even if he starts 16 games.  If you call A-Rob's 2019 stats the mean, i'm happy with anything close to that if i draft him.   I do like that his targets seemed to go up as the year passed.  11+ targets per game the last 6 weeks, versus ~8.5 the first 10 games.   Its what I want in a WR2

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12 hours ago, BrianM said:

He's a guy i consider myself par with.   Agree wholeheartedly that he could be so much more productive in a different offense, but that time might come next year.   I dont think I care which QB is throwing him the ball- he did just fine with Mitch, and Foles is probably better, but despite his legacy i dont think Foles is coming in and lifting A-Rob to All-Pro numbers even if he starts 16 games.  If you call A-Rob's 2019 stats the mean, i'm happy with anything close to that if i draft him.   I do like that his targets seemed to go up as the year passed.  11+ targets per game the last 6 weeks, versus ~8.5 the first 10 games.   Its what I want in a WR2

 

WR2?  I'll take that amount of targets being thrown to my WR1 any day of the week and twice on Sundays. 

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Well, WR1 if you go RB-RB, but WR2 if you take one in the first two rounds, simply

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1 hour ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Inwant axe elf’s opinion on robinson before i start  to scout

quote-heroes-get-remembered-but-legends-

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3 hours ago, Gohawks said:

_faqDs.gif

 

The man vanished ever since the pandemic hit , coincidence I think not 🤔

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1 hour ago, RunCMC said:

 

The man vanished ever since the pandemic hit , coincidence I think not 🤔

Or at most maybe 2 years before. But still, the link is uncanny.

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