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Nyheim Hines 2020 Outlook

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is this guy the real PPR value with Rivers in town now?

 

Coach Frank Reich said "it wouldn't surprise me if there's a game this season that Nyheim Hines has 10 catches."

Reich added, "Philip (Rivers) has an uncanny ability to get the ball to the backs … Nyheim will be very much integrated into the game plan, on all three downs. … Still enough snaps for him to be very, very productive this year. Very productive." There's also plenty of cause for concern for the Colts' various veteran RBs after they chose to scoop up Jonathan Taylor in the second round of the draft. Marlon Mack's starting job is on life support, but we shouldn't necessarily expect Taylor to fully take over this backfield immediately. Hines had earned some dark-horse appeal in this new-look offense that will feature Philip Rivers under center considering he possesses an Austin Ekeler-esque skill-set thanks to his demonstrated ability to thrive as a true WR in the slot or out wide, but he almost assuredly won't see enough snaps to provide anything resembling consistent fantasy production. A good sample size to try and predict this backfield's splits might just be Weeks 14-17 from last season after Mack returned from injury: a three-RB committee featuring two early-down RBs and Hines. The likelihood that Hines' pass-game work isn't going anywhere lowers the ceiling of every RB involved.

May 18, 2020, 10:28 AM ET

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Guess his value is based on shoot outs and if their team is trailing. Once they get the lead, Taylor and Mack are going to be ridden hard.

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I don't expect Hines to duplicate what Ekeler did last year, given the competition in the back field, but Gordon was there for a good chunk of the season and Ekeler still got his.  I like Hines a lot as a later round grab to get a high-floor bye week fill in RB.  Or if your draft becomes WR heavy in the beginning, Hines is a nice high floor guy to plug in while you figure out the RB situation on your team.  Rivers feeds the RB in the passing game

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God- Jonathan Taylor is gonna flop in his first year in Dynasty, isn't he? Reich is a Pederson clone, it looks like. 

Hines isn't as talented as Ekeler, so can't expect the same. PPR flex, like Chris Thompson however. 

 

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I have been pumping up Hines as soon as RIVERS arrived in Indy. Thebnews that now the COACH is saying Hines will be heavily involved in the offense..especially the passing game with check down Rivers in at QB only Solidifies my expectation that Hines WILL ball out this year in PPR. BUY NOW IN DYNASTY and redrafts! I will take Hines later in drafts over Eckeler (wayyyy overvalued without RIVERS) 

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8 hours ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Guess his value is based on shoot outs and if their team is trailing. Once they get the lead, Taylor and Mack are going to be ridden hard.

 

Looking at their schedule and what should be a solid D, they should be playing with the lead more often than not.

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On 5/18/2020 at 4:49 PM, Evincar said:

 

Looking at their schedule and what should be a solid D, they should be playing with the lead more often than not.

Smart man, thank you

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On 5/18/2020 at 7:49 PM, Evincar said:

 

Looking at their schedule and what should be a solid D, they should be playing with the lead more often than not.

When looking at it now and their schedule for the touches to go around with Rivers being the qb this is with catches as well.

Taylor 225

Mack 175

Hines 125

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Only will be used in garbage time. 

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On one hand, there's coach speak. On the other hand, we're approaching year 3 and this guy's NFL bread and butter is a passing down back at best.

Then they take a RB with a premium pick.

This guy catching 10 passes in any game is nonsense. That said, seems like an ugly timeshare. If Taylor gets 250 touches in his rookie year, I'd be jumping for joy.

I'd rather have Tarik Cohen than this guy. 

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3 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

I'd rather have Tarik Cohen than this guy. 

Seems like both Hines and Cohen are under-utilized and -- at least on the Bears -- the playcalling/scheme does not set him up for success.

I'm not saying either should get many carries, but they should both get more catches than they do.

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2 hours ago, EWV1 said:

Seems like both Hines and Cohen are under-utilized and -- at least on the Bears -- the playcalling/scheme does not set him up for success.

I'm not saying either should get many carries, but they should both get more catches than they do.

For Hines it’s tough because he is on a run first team with a good defense. Leaves less opportunity. Colts were near the bottom in pass attempts. 

For Cohen it’s different because the Bears still throw a lot and Trubisky isn’t particularly accurate so going to Cohen seems like a nice safe bet. That being said, the explanation is simple and it’s that Nagy is an idiot. 

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44 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

For Hines it’s tough because he is on a run first team with a good defense. Leaves less opportunity. Colts were near the bottom in pass attempts. 

For Cohen it’s different because the Bears still throw a lot and Trubisky isn’t particularly accurate so going to Cohen seems like a nice safe bet. That being said, the explanation is simple and it’s that Nagy is an idiot. 

 

With Defilippo helping out now as OC and likely Foles starting and all of Nagy, Defilippo and Lazar having worked with Foles before there should be some familiarity. Also iirc last yesr was Defilippo's 3rd oc job, 1 year in Cleveland, not even 1 full year in Minnesota and then last year in Jacksonville he targets RB's lots, last year Fournette had something like 75 recs on 100 targets and if you add all targets up they travelled 19 yards or something crazy like that.

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Jon Taylor and Mack aren't really any threats to eat at Nyheim's 3rd down role are they?

 

I don't see it happening and therefore I can see Hines with 80ish targets if he remains healthy in 2020 which is gonna extremely valuable in PPR as a 140ish pick for deep leagues.

 

Does anyone know why his production dropped from 1st year to 2nd though?  I didn't follow the guy close enough to really understand.

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Philip Rivers loved throwing to Austin Ekeler out of the backfield with the Chargers so Hines who is the Colts' pass-catching back could become a favorite of his as well.  I think he's worth a flier later in PPR drafts.  I was able to get him in the 12th and 13th rounds in 2 PPR drafts.

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https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EkelAu00/splits/2019/

2019 splits for Austin Ekeler..........I just became a full no on Hines.     76 of Ekeler's 92 catches came on first or second down.    If Mack or Taylor aren't on the field for the vast majority of first and second downs, the Colts just aren't doing it right.  

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1 hour ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Jon Taylor and Mack aren't really any threats to eat at Nyheim's 3rd down role are they?

 

I don't see it happening and therefore I can see Hines with 80ish targets if he remains healthy in 2020 which is gonna extremely valuable in PPR as a 140ish pick for deep leagues.

 

Does anyone know why his production dropped from 1st year to 2nd though?  I didn't follow the guy close enough to really understand.

 

Luck in year 1, Brissett in year 2 would be my guess.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, BrianM said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EkelAu00/splits/2019/

2019 splits for Austin Ekeler..........I just became a full no on Hines.     76 of Ekeler's 92 catches came on first or second down.    If Mack or Taylor aren't on the field for the vast majority of first and second downs, the Colts just aren't doing it right.  

 

That is alarming, thanks for sharing, can you find the splits for 2015 when Rivers and Reich were together on Danny Woodhead???

Edited by turner46

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WoodDa02/splits/2015/

80 receptions, 22 apiece on 1st and 2nd down, 29 on third down

Worth pointing out that was a 4-12 team.  

 

Thanks!!! Great point, this team should be a playoff contender and also be down by more then 1 score less which probably got Woodhead on the field on 1st and 2nd down when the Chargers were down more then 1 score. Hines likely doesn't see much 1st and 2nd down action nor likely comes anywhere near the 44 receptions combined on 1st and 2nd down.

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23 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Just FYI a 3rd down back doesn't only play on 3rd downs. 

 

2 minute drills and catch-up offense in 4th quarter when playing from behind. 

 

True, but the Colts look like a solid team that wouldn't be in those situations often.  No way to know for sure of course but not something I'd lean on

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41 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

True, but the Colts look like a solid team that wouldn't be in those situations often.  No way to know for sure of course but not something I'd lean on

 

Philip rivers only knows how to play from behind. 

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On 8/4/2020 at 5:14 PM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Jon Taylor and Mack aren't really any threats to eat at Nyheim's 3rd down role are they?

 

I don't see it happening and therefore I can see Hines with 80ish targets if he remains healthy in 2020 which is gonna extremely valuable in PPR as a 140ish pick for deep leagues.

 

Does anyone know why his production dropped from 1st year to 2nd though?  I didn't follow the guy close enough to really understand.

I love Hines this season with Rivers but 80 targets seems a little lofty.  Only 6 RBs got more than 80 targets last season.  Even if you look at targets per game to account for missed games from some RBs, only 10 were 5 a game or higher.  In 2018 Hines had 81 targets, so definitely within the range of outcomes, but that was when it was just him and Mack in the backfield.  Plus the Colts offense was #2 in passing attempts in 2018, with Andrew Luck at QB.  I don't see them being that high this year in volume, and Luck to Rivers is a downgrade.  Now add Jonathan Taylor to the mix, and I think Hines is more in the 50-60 target range. 

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13 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

I love Hines this season with Rivers but 80 targets seems a little lofty.  Only 6 RBs got more than 80 targets last season.  Even if you look at targets per game to account for missed games from some RBs, only 10 were 5 a game or higher.  In 2018 Hines had 81 targets, so definitely within the range of outcomes, but that was when it was just him and Mack in the backfield.  Plus the Colts offense was #2 in passing attempts in 2018, with Andrew Luck at QB.  I don't see them being that high this year in volume, and Luck to Rivers is a downgrade.  Now add Jonathan Taylor to the mix, and I think Hines is more in the 50-60 target range. 

I believe having Check down machine Rivers at qb is an upgrade over Luck for Hines. This will be Hines' biggest season.

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