Boudewijn

Chris Carson 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

In the past 3 years, Carson evolved from an unlikely 7th rounder, to a solid RB who battled through a horrific injury, held off first round competition, delivered during the 2018 fantasy playoffs (and then he got injured in 2019 week 16. Ouch.) I like this guy: always running hard, always wanting more - despite that injury, 2019 was again better than 2018.

Seahawks running back Chris Carson does not need surgery on his hip

There are quite a few concerns for 2020 though:
- The competition just increased. Penny was never much of a threat as he is more a (outside) zone runner but DeeJay Dallas is a proper between the tackles banger, can catch a screen, can do a bit of pass pro, etc. Dallas is the type of back that Carroll seems to want in Seattle. He is currently low on the depth charts, but I think he could leapfrog Penny and threaten Carson.
- Carson had 7 fumbles in 2019, most of all NFL RBs (Henry was #2 with 5) - and that's not the full story, because if you fumble during the hand-off, it's generally on the QB. But 7 is a lot - usually when you fumble that much, coaches tend to fade you (hello Tarik) unless you are Adrian Peterson. You just got to protect the ball better.
Teams are already actively gunning for Carson and trying to punch the ball from his hands.


So... I'm going to be a bit careful with Carson. I don't think he's going to get 300 touches again; if he does I think he'll be 1200+ yds again, but for now I'm taking the under.
I also won't be surprised if he again has a revival during camp or in the second half of the season. As said, he's a fighter, and never gives up. Just hold on to that ball, buddy.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dude is a beast and beastmode 2.0 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really like the player and pulling for him to have another solid season. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Phenomenal value- just be prepared for fumble benching and possible injury. However, he should still return good value where he's going. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the fumbling for RBs is akin to drops for WRs, really not as big of a deal as it is exasperating to fans and even coaches alike. But, it did nearly get him benched too. Really just the nature of his powerful running style and penchant for punishing defenders/gaining yards after contact.

Like last year, he is a pretty awesome value. The line should be better, the scheme is built-in so well for RBs and Russ always keeps the defenses honest.

Penny is recovering from a complicated late season knee injury and might not even make it all the way back. Yes, they did use modest draft capital on DeeJay Dallas, but I don't think he is all that impressive...getting lost completely in the shuffle is Travis Homer--who looked pretty good in limited run last season. Homer outplayed Dallas when they were together at the U, and is by far the more dynamic athlete. Knowing the system is also a real advantage in the strange off-season right now too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great RB2 option this year.  Recent article mentioned comments from Pete Carroll saying they expect Carson to be ready by the start of the season, but Penny was a bit less optimistic.  On FFC Carson is currently being drafted at 3.03 - 27th overall - so he can be a rock solid RB2, or even a capable RB1 if you go WR/WR to start the draft.  FantasyPros has him ranked #34 overall, RB17 so a little bit lower.  DeeJay Dallas is virtually free in drafts, so grabbing Carson in the 3rd round, plus your last pick on Dallas seems like a nice idea.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You really do not want chris carson to be your rb1 going wr wr imo. He rarely had those games last year where he was 120 total yards 2 tds. He is a high end rb2 in my eyes which is where he is going in drafts anyways.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like him more than just about everyone fantasypros has ranked in that RB2 range, give or take maybe a Singletary or an Ingram as we see how their respective depth charts and practices shake out.

I do wonder if his running style is going to lead to a greater propensity to get hurt, if the fumbles ever come back to haunt him, or if any of the guys on the depth chart including Penny or Dallas could take significant volume away from him, but as things stand he looks more relatively stable than most that are being taken in his range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

You really do not want chris carson to be your rb1 going wr wr imo. He rarely had those games last year where he was 120 total yards 2 tds. He is a high end rb2 in my eyes which is where he is going in drafts anyways.

No he probably won't give you 40 point explosions like CMC or Barkley, but there's only a select few of those types of guys.  If you have the 3rd or 4th pick in your draft, and let's say you get Michael Thomas and then Amari Cooper, Chris Carson in the 3rd would be a great get to me.  Very solid, consistent RB to compliment your WR selections.  If you can snag someone like Zeke or Kamara in round 1 and make Carson your RB2, even better.  I just don't think having Carson as RB1 is THAT much of a death sentance.  

He was an RB1 7 times last year, and only had a few "bust" games, one of which was week 16 which I believe he left early from injury.  

Plus if your board falls to where you go WR/WR in your draft, what other options do you have in Round 3?  Fournette, CEH, Gordon, Bell, Gurley, etc.?  I think I would take Carson over all those guys in his range.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh I agree in round 3 chris carson is the pick at rb if he is on the board. He is just not someone I would want to depend on as my rb1 weekly. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Buy Buy Buy. You will get a low-end RB1, high end RB2 for the first half of the season. Grab KeShawn Vaughn later and you will have a high-end RB2 for the second half of the season once he takes the reigns for RoJo.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/19/2020 at 10:24 AM, Sack Exchange said:

never gets old

giphy.gif

"Wow, nice hurdle"... *Starts to scroll down thread"... "Wait, is he still running?!!"

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This might be the year Carroll finally realizes that the offense should become pass heavy with his elite QB.

 

But he also might just chew gum at the speed of light and run da baw. So I guess Carson is a safe RB2.

 

pete-carroll.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

curious if his hip is as healthy as were being led to believe. Looking at Freeman and Hyde with wanting to add Lynch. They added Dallas, who I thought wasn't used properly at Miami. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Carson takes a huge hit with Hyde signing 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agreed.  Good signing for Seattle tbh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I consider Hyde more of a poor-man's Chris Carson.  I see Hyde more as Penny insurance.  As long as Carson is healthy, he will continue to get his 20 touches a game.  His only issue is fumbling, which is partly due to his physical style but hopefully will be improved.  We knew Seattle was going to sign someone.  I hope more people think Hyde's signing will be bad for Carson.  Maybe he will drop to me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hyde is insurance for both Penny and Carson. Penny likely goes on the Pup list and no one knows for sure if Carson will be ready for game 1 or if he'll be the same runner.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Carson takes a huge hit with Hyde signing 

Omg, a 30 year old backup RB! How could Carson possibly have any value left?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Omg, a 30 year old backup RB! How could Carson possibly have any value left?

It is never...ever, that cut and dry 

Hyde had 1000+ and 6 tds last year, that's nothing to just scoff at

Edited by Savatage79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Savatage79 said:

It is never...ever, that cut and dry 

It literally is. Penny is nowhere near healthy. Homer is not a feature back. Dallas is a mid round rookie. They have to roster a backup RB. If they'd signed McCoy, would you have said the same? Lamar Miller? Lynch?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

It literally is. Penny is nowhere near healthy. Homer is not a feature back. Dallas is a mid round rookie. They have to roster a backup RB. If they'd signed McCoy, would you have said the same? Lamar Miller? Lynch?

Hyde is very capable as I edited in above. And I never said Carson doesnt have value, I said its taken a hit. And no I wouldn't worry much about Carsons value with any of those other players, not anywhere near as much as Hyde. Again you want to fight as if I'm saying Carson becomes useless by your tone, and that's not even close to what I'm saying

Edited by Savatage79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Savatage79 said:

Hyde is very capable as I edited in above. And I never said Carson doesnt have value, I said its taken a hit. And no I wouldn't worry much about Carsons value with any of those other players

Somebody is going to be the backup, and that person would siphon some snaps. Whether it ended up being Penny, Dallas, McCoy, Hyde or any other FA, none of them would keep Carson from being a 250+ carry workhorse.

It's a good landing spot for Hyde because Carson has huge health red flags, but if the latter stays healthy, he's still going to be a beast in real life and fantasy. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...