Boudewijn

D.K. Metcalf 2020 Outlook

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Well, I was wrong. Metcalf can run routes (a bit), and Metcalf is a success.

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Metcalf has been Carroll's most effective rookie receiver:

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It's funny that in usage and effectiveness (and catch rate, yds/target, etc) Metcalf is the most comparable to Baldwin, because there's about 6 inches and 25 lbs between the 2 - that's a sizeable difference. But I think it's clear that Metcalf is the guy to own in Seattle, and if he doesn't screw up, he's the guy to own. Let's take another look at the careers of the 5 guys above:

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Eh... it seems that 3 out of those 4 before Metcalf had a bit of a Sophomore Slump:

- Golden Tate didn't really have a sophomore slump because it took him 1.5 years to bloom. Once he became a starter, he actually did pretty good in the last 5 games of 2011 
- Doug Baldwin didn't have a lot of luck in 2012 with dental surgery after a failed TD catch, a high ankle sprain and a shoulder injury
- Richardson was the most unlucky of all, starting 2015 on the PUP list, then catching exactly one pass and tearing his hamstring
- Lockett played most of 2016 through a knee injury and then broke his leg in week 16

I'm not the superstitious kind, but I knocked on wood just now.

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In any case, this is a fun kid to watch. In 2019 Locket and Metcalf each had 7 catches of 30+ yards, so that's a pretty potent duo for Seattle. Stay healthy, guys.

 

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Posted (edited)

I’m really beginning to come around on Metcalf - I’ll no longer bother fighting it.  I think Brian Schottenheimer put it best:

The No. 1 thing that we know is that we can move him around and do different things with him. He kind of got stuck at the 'X' receiver last year. This year we know we can move him around quite a bit more. There are so many more routes he can run. He's proven he can get behind people.

I just think the flexibility of moving him around and introducing some different route concepts that we can kind of get him up to speed on will complement the things that he's already put on film. It will be an incredible, incredible advantage for us as we head into next season."

 

Edited by BMcP
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9 hours ago, BMcP said:

I’m really beginning to come around on Metcalf - I’ll no longer bother fighting it.  I think Brian Schottenheimer put it best:

The No. 1 thing that we know is that we can move him around and do different things with him. He kind of got stuck at the 'X' receiver last year. This year we know we can move him around quite a bit more. There are so many more routes he can run. He's proven he can get behind people.

I just think the flexibility of moving him around and introducing some different route concepts that we can kind of get him up to speed on will complement the things that he's already put on film. It will be an incredible, incredible advantage for us as we head into next season."

 

 

He is a threat for double digit TD's and 1200 yards. No joke being tethered to Russ. There's really good value here in Metcalf vs. AJ Brown- who basically were the same players last year. AJ Brown just more publicity and splash plays. 

Metcalf's the true #1. I guess the question is will the tight ends be more involved this year due to no injuries?

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

He is a threat for double digit TD's and 1200 yards. No joke being tethered to Russ. There's really good value here in Metcalf vs. AJ Brown- who basically were the same players last year. AJ Brown just more publicity and splash plays. 

Metcalf's the true #1. I guess the question is will the tight ends be more involved this year due to no injuries?

With the likes of Olsen and Dissly, the injuries will come soon enough.

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Posted (edited)

The crazy thing is Metcalf was extremely raw like people predicted. He had trouble with contested catches that should have been caught, route tree is still raw, timing was often off, and he struggled in other technical areas. Yet he still managed nearly 1,000 yards and 7 TDs because he is simply bigger, stronger, and faster than literally anyone else that'll stand opposite of him. Once he puts everything together he will be in the conversation for one of the best. 

Him dropping in the draft is one of the most baffling things I have ever seen. Dude is 6' 4" 230 and ran a ******** 4.33, benched as much as a defensive lineman (27), and has a 41 inch vertical. That's just absurd. Those are top 5 pick measurables and a scouts wet dream. Yet he dropped because of a stupid drill that doesn't even matter for a guy like him. Are scouts really that stupid? Calvin didn't even run the 3 cone drill and he would not do good in it as well. Dez and Evans for example also did terrible in it. Calvin ran the league by running past everyone and out jumping them and exploding off slants and blocking the defender with his huge body. That's exactly how DK is going to run the league. 

Edited by Gohawks
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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

The crazy thing is Metcalf was extremely raw like people predicted. He had trouble with contested catches that should have been caught, route tree is still raw, timing was often off, and he struggled in other technical areas. Yet he still managed nearly 1,000 yards and 7 TDs because he is simply bigger, stronger, and faster than literally anyone else that'll stand opposite of him. Once he puts everything together he will be in the conversation for one of the best. 

Him dropping in the draft is one of the most baffling things I have ever seen. Dude is 6' 4" 230 and ran a ******** 4.33, benched as much as a defensive lineman (27), and has a 41 inch vertical. That's just absurd. Those are top 5 pick measurables and a scouts wet dream. Yet he dropped because of a stupid drill that doesn't even matter for a guy like him. Are scouts really that stupid? Calvin didn't even run the 3 cone drill and he would not do good in it as well. Dez and Evans for example also did terrible in it. Calvin ran the league by running past everyone and out jumping them and exploding off slants and blocking the defender with his huge body. That's exactly how DK is going to run the league. 

99%ile in almost all of those metrics. Insane. One of the freakiest prospects ever.  Player Profiler has him comped to Andre Johnson traits.

It's nuts to think AJ Brown is actually the same weight as him but 3 inches shorter. Those dudes should've done way better in college but horrible college offenses.

Anyways, Metcalf seems like a screaming dynasty buy if people are still doubting it. However, being tethered to Elite QBs leave you in the best situations. 

I don't think Lockett is the #1, but however an excellent #2 and deep threat. Is this the case going forward? 

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2 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

99%ile in almost all of those metrics. Insane. One of the freakiest prospects ever.  Player Profiler has him comped to Andre Johnson traits.

It's nuts to think AJ Brown is actually the same weight as him but 3 inches shorter. Those dudes should've done way better in college but horrible college offenses.

Anyways, Metcalf seems like a screaming dynasty buy if people are still doubting it. However, being tethered to Elite QBs leave you in the best situations. 

I don't think Lockett is the #1, but however an excellent #2 and deep threat. Is this the case going forward? 

It's crazy to think the talent Ole Miss had at WR. They used DK absolutely horribly though. Almost no work for him in slants and such which he dominates in and that. Lack of usage probably hurt his growth. If DK played for Alabama he would've been a top 5 pick.

Lockett MAYBE has one year left as their #1 but I doubt it. I have DK ranked as a borderline WR1 and Lockett as a low end WR2 going into this year so I obviously think he is going to take over. Lockett is a good NFL talent but I don't consider him elite. DK on the other hand is a beast. Just hard to not see him start to take over. 

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It's crazy to think the talent Ole Miss had at WR. They used DK absolutely horribly though. Almost no work for him in slants and such which he dominates in and that. Lack of usage probably hurt his growth. If DK played for Alabama he would've been a top 5 pick.

Lockett MAYBE has one year left as their #1 but I doubt it. I have DK ranked as a borderline WR1 and Lockett as a low end WR2 going into this year so I obviously think he is going to take over. Lockett is a good NFL talent but I don't consider him elite. DK on the other hand is a beast. Just hard to not see him start to take over. 

DK will be a beast but I think the playoff game is twisting peoples' views of his 2019. He was still really inconsistent so borderline WR1 seems high

I do think he will get there eventually though

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1 minute ago, mocha4313 said:

DK will be a beast but I think the playoff game is twisting peoples' views of his 2019. He was still really inconsistent so borderline WR1 seems high

I do think he will get there eventually though

The playoff game isn't twisting anything. I watch every game you think I base my opinion off that one game? Of course he was inconsistent. Almost every rookie WR is inconsistent. Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones didn't get 1,000 yards in their first year either (although Julio missed 3 games). It's extremely hard to be dominant as a rookie WR. Julio and Johnson both made jumps their second year. Same with Andre Johnson.

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5 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The playoff game isn't twisting anything. I watch every game you think I base my opinion off that one game? Of course he was inconsistent. Almost every rookie WR is inconsistent. Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones didn't get 1,000 yards in their first year either (although Julio missed 3 games). It's extremely hard to be dominant as a rookie WR. Julio and Johnson both made jumps their second year. Same with Andre Johnson.

Everyone has a bit of bias when looking back that makes them remember more important and recent games clearer--myself included

I agree that the inconsistency isn't abnormal, but Megatron and Julio played on higher volume passing teams than the Seahawks. I don't doubt he will put up numbers. Just WR1 in fantasy (top 10-12) seems rather unlikely (though far from impossible) in 2020

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I am keeping him unless he gets injured before my draft. He was my number two last season after halfway point, and he did well. He ran an extremely limited route tree. Hopefully this season they expand his route tree leading to larger target share. He even had a couple of bad fumbles near the goal line that could have boosted his numbers. He is sort of flying under the radar.

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Great rookie year, expecting him to improve this year (All Russ based)

Horrible dynasty asset though. At his size he’ll either start breaking down after 3 years or fail the piss test at some point.
 

And no I’m not projecting my David Boston bitterness as a Charger fan.

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Choosing between Chark/Terry/Samuels/D.K at the 4/5 turn is a real tough choice this year. I’m hoping to get 2/4

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13 hours ago, Magoo said:

Great rookie year, expecting him to improve this year (All Russ based)

Horrible dynasty asset though. At his size he’ll either start breaking down after 3 years or fail the piss test at some point.
 

And no I’m not projecting my David Boston bitterness as a Charger fan.

 

??? Similar size and build to T.O.

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1 hour ago, Evincar said:

 

??? Similar size and build to T.O.

Good point.  I admit my resentful David Boston bias influences my opinion.  TO was a freak. Definitely within a range of outcomes.

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15 hours ago, Breesus said:

Choosing between Chark/Terry/Samuels/D.K at the 4/5 turn is a real tough choice this year. I’m hoping to get 2/4

That is a first world problem. Chark and DK for me.

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15 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Good point.  I admit my resentful David Boston bias influences my opinion.  TO was a freak. Definitely within a range of outcomes.

 

Boston was a huge jerk with some of the worst off the field issues I have ever seen. One of the biggest wastes of talent in pro sports history. I dont think we have much to worry about DK unless he really is juicing.

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5 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

That is a first world problem. Chark and DK for me.

I’m leaning Terry and DK right now. I’m positive I’ll be going after Terry though, watch his film review on YouTube. Dude is a future star

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21 hours ago, Breesus said:

Choosing between Chark/Terry/Samuels/D.K at the 4/5 turn is a real tough choice this year. I’m hoping to get 2/4

Chark and Terry for me...3rd would be DK

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22 hours ago, Breesus said:

Choosing between Chark/Terry/Samuels/D.K at the 4/5 turn is a real tough choice this year. I’m hoping to get 2/4

DK then Terry and then Chark and later Deebo for me

DK sped up as Chark slowed down last year

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This dude's size/speed/player profile & rookie year stats mirror Julio and Andre Johnson.  Not saying DK is as good or will explode like them in year 2 but he has a decent chance to have a great year 2 season.  With an ADP around WR20, there's still room to profit as it wouldn't shock me if he put up a top 10 fantasy WR season.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

This dude's size/speed/player profile & rookie year stats mirror Julio and Andre Johnson.  Not saying DK is as good or will explode like them in year 2 but he has a decent chance to have a great year 2 season.  With an ADP around WR20, there's still room to profit as it wouldn't shock me if he put up a top 10 fantasy WR season.

Julio and Andre Johnson are/were elite route runners. DK, with all respect, is not. This is exactly why size/speed/profile have only limited bearing on how good WRs really are.

In any case, I really wouldn't compare DK to them. I think Donte Moncrief would be a better comparison as a guy who is fast and strong, and a decent but not great route runner.

Edit: I'm obviously not claiming DK is similar to Moncrief, especially since DKs rookie season was already better than anything Moncrief has done. I'm just showing how silly it is to make these comparisons based on limited stats.

Edited by Boudewijn

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My biggest hesitation is Russel Wilson spreads the ball around (as most great QB’s do), they have another good receiver in Lockett & capable TE’s coming back from injury. Add that to their running the ball philosophy and I just have a hard time trusting in DK’s ceiling being that high.

I really want to give him a shot, but right now I feel guys like McClaurin, Hollywood, Chark, have a higher ceiling and better chances at reaching it. Nothing to do with DK as a prospect, his talent is through the roof and has shown he is a capable wr from a route running standpoint. I just don’t like his situation 

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12 minutes ago, Breesus said:

My biggest hesitation is Russel Wilson spreads the ball around (as most great QB’s do), they have another good receiver in Lockett & capable TE’s coming back from injury. Add that to their running the ball philosophy and I just have a hard time trusting in DK’s ceiling being that high.

I really want to give him a shot, but right now I feel guys like McClaurin, Hollywood, Chark, have a higher ceiling and better chances at reaching it. Nothing to do with DK as a prospect, his talent is through the roof and has shown he is a capable wr from a route running standpoint. I just don’t like his situation 

& Wilson’s career high is 4200 yards in a season. Let’s be positive and say DK gets 30% of that (unlikely) that would put him at 1260 yards. So it’s a matter of whether you believe he can get the touchdowns, Wilson has averaged 33 TD’s the last 3 seasons. So at a 30% TD share you are looking at about 10 TDs. I think it will tough for him to reach these numbers for the reasons stated above.

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