Boudewijn

D.J. Chark 2020 Outlook

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And then DJ Chark (doo doo doo) suddenly had a thousand yards.

Chark.jpg

There is something weird going on with Minshew and Chark. It took me a while to figure out what's going on, but Chark goes from a 70% catch rate on his own half to below 50% in the final 30 yards. This is mostly on Minshew, who clearly still has a lot to learn, but part of it is definitely on Chark.

image.png.32cdac9bcb63e7e4b61acf3c8c12aada.png

(The above shows the catch rate for Brees/Thomas, arguably the gold standard, and Minshew/Chark. As you can see Brees more or less has the same catch rate everywhere on the field, whereas Thomas drops a little bit, but generally has a better catch rate than the average for NO. On the other hand, Minshew drops steadily towards the opponent endzone, and Chark drops even below that.)

So Minshew and Chark are still rough, and also water is wet. Still, Chark managed 8 TD (most for Jax 2019), half of which in the Red Zone. So if Minshew improves, Chark should feast - there is still a lot to gain here. Chark is now WR26 according to FantasyPros, but I think he should be a sleeper borderline WR1 - if Jacksonville gets their act together a bit. 

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It should be noted he was also playing through injury in the latter part of the season when his production dipped. I’m with you, I think he could certainly finish as a WR1 this year. He has the draft capital, the athletic profile and the opportunity. 

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What was the injury?  I forgot about anything nagging him there and, without much research, was trending towards fluke for Chark.   

There's also the debate of......is he a bad choice because the team will be bad, or will he become a garbage time champion?

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6 minutes ago, BrianM said:

What was the injury?  I forgot about anything nagging him there and, without much research, was trending towards fluke for Chark.   

There's also the debate of......is he a bad choice because the team will be bad, or will he become a garbage time champion?

Foot or ankle. I think high ankle sprain was speculated. Left the Chargers game late, missed a week, totaled 6 for 52 the last 2 games which was easily his worst 2 game stretch of the year. Was on pace for 82/1180/10 through 13 games.

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

And then DJ Chark (doo doo doo) suddenly had a thousand yards.

Chark.jpg

There is something weird going on with Minshew and Chark. It took me a while to figure out what's going on, but Chark goes from a 70% catch rate on his own half to below 50% in the final 30 yards. This is mostly on Minshew, who clearly still has a lot to learn, but part of it is definitely on Chark.

image.png.32cdac9bcb63e7e4b61acf3c8c12aada.png

(The above shows the catch rate for Brees/Thomas, arguably the gold standard, and Minshew/Chark. As you can see Brees more or less has the same catch rate everywhere on the field, whereas Thomas drops a little bit, but generally has a better catch rate than the average for NO. On the other hand, Minshew drops steadily towards the opponent endzone, and Chark drops even below that.)

So Minshew and Chark are still rough, and also water is wet. Still, Chark managed 8 TD (most for Jax 2019), half of which in the Red Zone. So if Minshew improves, Chark should feast - there is still a lot to gain here. Chark is now WR26 according to FantasyPros, but I think he should be a sleeper borderline WR1 - if Jacksonville gets their act together a bit. 

 

Yea it's crazy to me how slept on his is right now. The situation hasn't changed at all with the exception of them drafting Shenault (who I'm not a big fan of and don't anticipate being much of a factor this year). I feel like most players that had a year 2 breakout like his would be getting way more hype. He's one of the most athletically gifted receivers in the league, will be playing on a team that will have favorable game flow most games and has a gun slinging QB that loved to target him. He'll be on a lot of my teams this year.

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5 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Foot or ankle. I think high ankle sprain was speculated. Left the Chargers game late, missed a week, totaled 6 for 52 the last 2 games which was easily his worst 2 game stretch of the year. Was on pace for 82/1180/10 through 13 games.

Looks like it was some kind of ankle injury

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/jaguars/news/doug-marrone-provides-injury-updates-on-dj-chark

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Through the first 5 weeks of last season Chark was consistently cracking the shell of every secondary they faced. Then they played the Saints: 

Quote

“That’s what New Orleans did Sunday. The Saints not only shut down Chark; they shut down the entire Jaguars’ passing game in part because none of the other receivers were able to make up for the loss of Chark’s production. It’s something they need to figure out because the Saints might have provided the blueprint to stopping Chark, quarterback Gardner Minshew and the rest of the offense. ... “We knew that DJ was going to draw a lot of times double coverage,” receiver Chris Conley said. “We’ve got to execute in the other spots. They played a little bit different than we expected them to play today. We expected them to double DJ, but we didn’t expect them to play necessarily that two-man [two deep safeties] all day today, and so we’ve got to win vs. two-man.” The Saints put Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore on Chark and bracketed him with a safety over the top, which was designed to prevent the deep shots that Minshew and Chark have had success with through the first five weeks.“  https://www.espn.com/blog/jacksonville-jaguars/post/_/id/27435/saints-befuddled-jaguars-with-two-deep-look-taking-away-dj-chark

 

Something more recent:

Quote

When announcing his newest hire ... Doug Marrone spoke fondly about Gruden’s experience as a play caller. “One thing that going into it what I felt was I don’t have time for that [learning] curve,” Marrone said. ... Chark believes Gruden’s West Coast offense scheme is a good fit to attack defenses more to create scoring opportunities...  “I played in a West Coast offense my first three years of college (LSU), so I’m excited,” Chark said. “It allows you to stretch the field a lot. I’m just ready to see what he can bring to the team. I’m ready to work with him.” https://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20200124/jaguars-wr-dj-chark-plans-to-set-bar-high-to-emerge-in-jay-grudenrsquos-offensive-system


Appears the issue has been identified with an attempt to resolve. The twitched-up suddenness & change of direction for a WR with Chark’s length is real! Legit questions pertaining to his ball skills when he came out. But on his tape are some impressive hand/eye catches In contested situations. Still lean, wish he had gotten bigger & do they get it figured out? Could be wrong, but I think his situation is going to be better & so is he. 

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Minshew was great at hitting him down the field.  For sure will be a target of mine, but I'm afraid he'll be hyped up by the time the fall rolls around.  He's "this year's DJ Moore".

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On 5/24/2020 at 8:03 AM, markrc99 said:


Through the first 5 weeks of last season Chark was consistently cracking the shell of every secondary they faced. Then they played the Saints: 

 

Something more recent:


Appears the issue has been identified with an attempt to resolve. The twitched-up suddenness & change of direction for a WR with Chark’s length is real! Legit questions pertaining to his ball skills when he came out. But on his tape are some impressive hand/eye catches In contested situations. Still lean, wish he had gotten bigger & do they get it figured out? Could be wrong, but I think his situation is going to be better & so is he. 


Not just questions about his ball skills, but also questions about his route tree. He was a “run a go route and chuck it deep” WR at LSU. I’m honestly a little surprised by what he did last year and am still skeptical that he can reproduce it. But, I was very happy to see it and am definitely rooting for DJ. Superbly athletic kid who will likely be in the NFL a long time, but I still have my doubts that he’s a WR1...or a guy that I want to count on as my WR1. Looking at his game log, he had 7 games in which he had 4 or fewer receptions and 53 or fewer yards, including 3 of his last 4 games. Over his final 7 games, he had only 34-348-2, and this was not because of injury. I wouldn’t mind Chark being my WR2, but I just don’t see consistent WR1 in him. 

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


Not just questions about his ball skills, but also questions about his route tree. He was a “run a go route and chuck it deep” WR at LSU. I’m honestly a little surprised by what he did last year and am still skeptical that he can reproduce it. But, I was very happy to see it and am definitely rooting for DJ. Superbly athletic kid who will likely be in the NFL a long time, but I still have my doubts that he’s a WR1...or a guy that I want to count on as my WR1. Looking at his game log, he had 7 games in which he had 4 or fewer receptions and 53 or fewer yards, including 3 of his last 4 games. Over his final 7 games, he had only 34-348-2, and this was not because of injury. I wouldn’t mind Chark being my WR2, but I just don’t see consistent WR1 in him. 

Wasn't he hurt towards the end of the year? I owned him, I know he missed a game or 2. 

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3 minutes ago, mmcc1029 said:

Wasn't he hurt towards the end of the year? I owned him, I know he missed a game or 2. 

Yes, he got hurt late in the Chargers game Week 14.  Ankle injury, and was in a boot after the game.  He missed the following game in Oakland and clearly wasn't 100% in the final two.

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1 hour ago, mmcc1029 said:

Wasn't he hurt towards the end of the year? I owned him, I know he missed a game or 2. 


Yes, but his numbers had been dropping for more than a month before he was injured. 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


Yes, but his numbers had been dropping for more than a month before he was injured. 

 

Numbers had been dropping for more than a month before he got hurt??? What are you talking about? He had been balling on the same trajectory until week 15 (when he was hurt). This is misinfo my man.

Edited by paulwall29
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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:


Yes, but his numbers had been dropping for more than a month before he was injured. 

He put up 9 for 75 and left in the 4th quarter of the game he injured his ankle which was week 14. 

 

https://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20191208/jaguars-vs-chargers--dj-chark-forced-out-of-sundayrsquos-game-with-left-ankle-injury

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I think when people say "his numbers dropped" they mean the TDs.  5 in the first five games, 3 over the last ten.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Numbers had been dropping for more than a month before he got hurt??? What are you talking about? He had been balling on the same trajectory until week 15 (when he was hurt). This is misinfo my man.


No, it’s accurate info. Go look at his game log. He had a big week 10 and a big 4th qtr in the game in which he was injured. Other than those two games, tell me what he did in the second half. In weeks 9, 11, 12, he wasn’t even a flex play. 

My whole thing is Chark shouldn’t be trusted as a WR1. Way too inconsistent, and he flat-out had a worse second half than he did a first half. That’s not even debatable. 

Edited by Flyman75

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2 hours ago, mmcc1029 said:

He put up 9 for 75 and left in the 4th quarter of the game he injured his ankle which was week 14. 

 

https://www.jacksonville.com/sports/20191208/jaguars-vs-chargers--dj-chark-forced-out-of-sundayrsquos-game-with-left-ankle-injury

 

1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Not to mention a 8/104 2TD line three weeks prior...


Yeah, those are the two good games in his final 7. In his other 5 games in his final 7, he went 17-169-0. 

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30 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


No, it’s accurate info. Go look at his game log. He had a big week 10 and a big 4th qtr in the game in which he was injured. Other than those two games, tell me what he did in the second half. In weeks 9, 11, 12, he wasn’t even a flex play. 

My whole thing is Chark shouldn’t be trusted as a WR1. Way too inconsistent, and he flat-out had a worse second half than he did a first half. That’s not even debatable. 

My argument isn’t that he should be your teams WR1 this year, and if you draft correctly he shouldn’t be. I’m saying he could finish as a WR1. He’s still super young, and so is his qb who he demonstrated good chemistry with last year. It’s hardly a stretch to say they’ll both improve and he’ll be even more consistent in his third year. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:


No, it’s accurate info. Go look at his game log. He had a big week 10 and a big 4th qtr in the game in which he was injured. Other than those two games, tell me what he did in the second half. In weeks 9, 11, 12, he wasn’t even a flex play. 

My whole thing is Chark shouldn’t be trusted as a WR1. Way too inconsistent, and he flat-out had a worse second half than he did a first half. That’s not even debatable. 

 

Who besides you is talking about him as a WR1? Nobody is explicitly stating they are taking him is their WR1 they are saying he is being slept on and has that kind of upside. The numbers he was putting up the 4 weeks leading up to his injury were exactly on par/pace with the numbers he was putting up the rest of the season--with the exception of a bit worse luck in the TD department, there is no discernible difference. He had his highest target game in week 11 and his 4th highest in week 14. Again, there is no validity to your argument that his numbers had been dropping for more than a month before his injury. He averaged 16.1 PPG the 4 games before his injury. You are spreading misinformation. 

Edited by paulwall29

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Yeah, those are the two good games in his final 7. In his other 5 games in his final 7, he went 17-169-0. 

That's not a thing you can do with football stats.

There's only a limited number of games, and a limited number of snaps in those games, and a limited number of targets in those snaps etc etc - to try and exclude the good games from the bad (or vice versa) and then try to draw conclusions on what is left, is not very useful.

The whole nature of (Fantasy) Football is that we're betting on something highly volatile - which is also the attraction and the reason Karen in accounting can win the Championship when she drafted a kicker in the 8th round (bitch). But it also means that the game of "yeah but when he wasn't good he was bad" is a very risky one.

Again, he wasn't a WR1 and he's not expected to be one. But he has sneaky upside at limited cost, and that was the point.

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17 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

That's not a thing you can do with football stats.

There's only a limited number of games, and a limited number of snaps in those games, and a limited number of targets in those snaps etc etc - to try and exclude the good games from the bad (or vice versa) and then try to draw conclusions on what is left, is not very useful.

The whole nature of (Fantasy) Football is that we're betting on something highly volatile - which is also the attraction and the reason Karen in accounting can win the Championship when she drafted a kicker in the 8th round (bitch). But it also means that the game of "yeah but when he wasn't good he was bad" is a very risky one.

Again, he wasn't a WR1 and he's not expected to be one. But he has sneaky upside at limited cost, and that was the point.

 

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