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James Conner 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Because using "games started" is a bad way to look at RBs who lasted a full season.

I just took the top 30 RBs from last season and looked at how many played in all 16. 

For what it's worth Miles Sanders averaged over 15 opportunities per game.   There was a stretch Weeks 6-8 where he only got 6, 9, and 6 touches, but every single other game he was 11 or higher.  So was he an every down horse like CMC? No but he was more than just some ancillary RB who got a few touches a game.  Like obviously I wouldn't include someone like Justice Hill.  A part time player who got a few touches each game.  Sanders was way more than that.

Sure if you want to discredit a guy like Ron Jones because he split time with Peyton Barber, I can see that.  Frank Gore was the last one on the list and wasn't even going to include him, so take him off if you like.  

My main objective was to say that using "games started" is a crappy way to evaluate a RB's durability.  Just because a guy wasn't the "starter" in a given week, does not mean he was injured or missed the game at all.  

But look at the players who got hurt last year and didn't play even 15 games - guys like Cook, Carson, Kerryon, Freeman, Conner, Damien Williams - the usual suspects who are hurt seemingly every season.  Kamara and Barkley were victims of the dreaded high ankle sprain which seems like a random injury.  I wouldn't consider Kamara or Barkley injury prone at all.  But those other guys who consistently get banged up and miss time year after year, seem injury prone to me.

 

I agree that looking at only "games started" is a flawed way to look at RBs over a full season. That's obvious and I personally don't think that that's what the poster really meant (but I could be wrong). But your way was also flawed though. I think the poster was referring to starting caliber RBs who handled a bulk of their teams workload in rushing and not necessarily who received the ceremonial "first snap"...Maybe that's not what was meant, but that's how I take it...

Your example to "fact check"  by including games where Ronald Jones, Frank Gore, Or Miles Sanders had (4) touches doesn't really mean anything at all since we are talking about players who actually had a meaningful role on offense throughout these games.

Some players have shown a higher chance of injury than others, that's easy to recognize. With that said, RB is such a demanding position, that the risk is really on the entire position as there are very few actual starting RBs (starting in the sense that they carry the majority of the load and are treated as an RB1-2 in fantasy) who don't get injured and play a full slate of games.

Again, in my opinion, the poster trying to illustrate that there aren't many of those types of backs isn't really proved wrong because you pointed out that Ronald Jones (for example) who played in several games where he had (4) carries.

Mentioning Sanders averaging over (15) "opportunities per game lol before switching to touches as the benchmark for weeks 6-8 is a clever way to try to make your argument sound stronger... He averaged (14.3) touches per game. From weeks 1-12 (majority of the season), he averaged 11.8 touches per game. Personally, I wouldn't use that time frame to defend that he was a starting RB who played every game.

 

Yes, James Conner has shown a high chance of injury so far in his career. However, IMO, nearly all RBs can be injured in any given season.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

I agree that looking at only "games started" is a flawed way to look at RBs over a full season. That's obvious and I personally don't think that that's what the poster really meant (but I could be wrong). But your way was also flawed though. I think the poster was referring to starting caliber RBs who handled a bulk of their teams workload in rushing and not necessarily who received the ceremonial "first snap"...Maybe that's not what was meant, but that's how I take it...

I think that is what he meant, otherwise he would have included players like Joe Mixon or David Montgomery.  And when I responded to him, again he pointed to the data of only 4 "starters."  As I pointed out, there was a bit more than 4 RBs who "handled a bulk of their team's workload in rushing."

21 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Your example to "fact check"  by including games where Ronald Jones, Frank Gore, Or Miles Sanders had (4) touches doesn't really mean anything at all since we are talking about players who actually had a meaningful role on offense throughout these games.

I conceded Frank Gore and Ron Jones (although someone could make the argument both guys had "meaningful" roles in their offense.  I mean Ron Jones was the carry and yardage leader for the Bucs.  But again, I concede those 2 guys.

Miles Sanders absolutely had a meaningful role in the offense.  

21 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Some players have shown a higher chance of injury than others, that's easy to recognize. With that said, RB is such a demanding position, that the risk is really on the entire position as there are very few actual starting RBs (starting in the sense that they carry the majority of the load and are treated as an RB1-2 in fantasy) who don't get injured and play a full slate of games.

Agree that any player can get injured on any play.  But there is a history to certain players getting hurt more often.  For example, if we could quantify injury risk, let's say James Conner is 80% likely to get hurt and Derrick Henry is 10% likely to get hurt.  Within that scenario, there exists a range of outcomes where Conner plays all 16 and Henry ends up injured.  However, the probability says that is very unlikely to happen.  In fantasy football, I don't like to bet on things that are unlikely to happen.  For example, Conner playing all 16 games, while possible, seems very unlikely to happen.  I am not avoiding players like Saquon Barkley just because he missed a few games with an ankle sprain last year.  He hasn't shown a chronic injury history, as someone like James Conner.  

21 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

Again, the poster trying to illustrate that there aren't many of those types of backs is not proved wrong because you pointed out that Ronald Jones played in several games where he had (4) carries.

Again, I concede Ron Jones.  And again, there might even be a case to include him.  But for now, I'll back that one out. 

21 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

EDIT: I like how you said Sanders averaged over (15) "opportunities per game lol before using touches as the benchmark for weeks 6-8. Convenient way to try to make your argument sound stronger... He averaged (14.3) touches per game. From weeks 1-12 (majority of the season), he averaged 11.8 touches per game. Personally, I wouldn't use that time frame to defend that he was a starting RB who played every game.

Regardless if you look at touches or opportunities (my mistake for using both within the same comparison) Miles Sanders was a big part of the Eagles' offense.  So we'll use touches - 14.3 touches per game is damn near close to the 15 opportunities I mentioned, and 14.3 touches per game seems like a guy who is pretty involved in the offense.  If Sanders averaged like 5-6 touches a game, I would admit he was more of a role player similar to Brandon Bolden, Justice Hill, etc.  But 14.3 touches a game seems like someone who is clearly involved.  

 

Edited by Fort4242

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

I think that is what he meant, otherwise he would have included players like Joe Mixon or David Montgomery.  And when I responded to him, again he pointed to the data of only 4 "starters."  As I pointed out, there was a bit more than 4 RBs who "handled a bulk of their team's workload in rushing."

I conceded Frank Gore and Ron Jones (although someone could make the argument both guys had "meaningful" roles in their offense.  I mean Ron Jones was the carry and yardage leader for the Bucs.  But again, I concede those 2 guys.

Miles Sanders absolutely had a meaningful role in the offense.  

Agree that any player can get injured on any play.  But there is a history to certain players getting hurt more often.  For example, if we could quantify injury risk, let's say James Conner is 80% likely to get hurt and Derrick Henry is 10% likely to get hurt.  Within that scenario, there exists a range of outcomes where Conner plays all 16 and Henry ends up injured.  However, the probability says that is very unlikely to happen.  In fantasy football, I don't like to bet on things that are unlikely to happen.  For example, Conner playing all 16 games, while possible, seems very unlikely to happen.  I am not avoiding players like Saquon Barkley just because he missed a few games with an ankle sprain last year.  He hasn't shown a chronic injury history, as someone like James Conner.  

Again, I concede Ron Jones.  And again, there might even be a case to include him.  But for now, I'll back that one out. 

Regardless if you look at touches or opportunities (my mistake for using both within the same comparison) Miles Sanders was a big part of the Eagles' offense.  So we'll use touches - 14.3 touches per game is damn near close to the 15 opportunities I mentioned, and 14.3 touches per game seems like a guy who is pretty involved in the offense.  If Sanders averaged like 5-6 touches a game, I would admit he was more of a role player similar to Brandon Bolden, Justice Hill, etc.  But 14.3 touches a game seems like someone who is clearly involved.  

 

 

From weeks 1-12, Sanders had 11 touches per game. This is the majority of the season (and fantasy season) so to me, no that isn't the type of volume I'd expect from an RB1-2 which are the players we are talking about, no?

Either way, this is a pointless debate since you're seeming to be arguing a different point. The point to me is RBs who carry the load. Apples to apples. Frank Gore, Miles Sanders (in majority of the season), Ronald Jones, don't really qualify as fantasy RBs who carried the load last year throughout the whole season. So comparing apples to oranges isn't really productive.

How many RBs who carry the load (starting caliber RBs) played in all games last year with meaningful touches? The answer? Not many. I don't care to look it up, but I can guarantee you that players like Frank Gore are pointless to include in that debate.

 

It seems like your stance aligns with the below scenario:

Others: "Bellcow James Conner got hurt again."

You: "Conner is certainly injury prone then because Frank Gore who is a part time player played in all games."

 

Edited by ThreadKiller

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43 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

From weeks 1-12, Sanders had 11 touches per game. This is the majority of the season (and fantasy season) so to me, no that isn't the type of volume I'd expect from an RB1-2 which are the players we are talking about, no?

Either way, this is a pointless debate since you're seeming to be arguing a different point. The point to me is RBs who carry the load. Apples to apples. Frank Gore, Miles Sanders (in majority of the season), Ronald Jones, don't really qualify as fantasy RBs who carried the load last year throughout the whole season. So comparing apples to oranges isn't really productive.

How many RBs who carry the load (starting caliber RBs) played in all games last year with meaningful touches? The answer? Not many. I don't care to look it up, but I can guarantee you that players like Frank Gore are pointless to include in that debate.

 

It seems like your stance aligns with the below scenario:

Others: "Bellcow James Conner got hurt again."

You: "Conner is certainly injury prone then because Frank Gore who is a part time player played in all games."

 

The bolded is absolutely not true and absolutely not what I'm saying.  Come on I think even you understand that.  You keep singling out Frank Gore and Ron Jones.  Again, I concede those guys and take them off the list and there's still a pretty decent amount of RBs who played the whole season while being the primary RB.

By my count - 10.  Seems considerably higher than 4.  And if we include RBs who only missed one game, there's 15 total.

My original argument was pointing out how using "games started" is flawed.  That was it.

James Conner is injury prone because James Conner is injury prone. Yes, every player and especially RB can get hurt.  Conner gets hurt more often than most.  

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

The bolded is absolutely not true and absolutely not what I'm saying.  Come on I think even you understand that.  You keep singling out Frank Gore and Ron Jones.  Again, I concede those guys and take them off the list and there's still a pretty decent amount of RBs who played the whole season while being the primary RB.

By my count - 10.  Seems considerably higher than 4.  And if we include RBs who only missed one game, there's 15 total.

My original argument was pointing out how using "games started" is flawed.  That was it.

James Conner is injury prone because James Conner is injury prone. Yes, every player and especially RB can get hurt.  Conner gets hurt more often than most.  

 

I'm done debating anything with you. Not interested in getting into a back and forth insults game with you from behind a keyboard so I'll let you feel good about yourself and have that one. James Conner has been through some injuries, maybe more than others at this point in their careers. All RBs are susceptible to injury.

Moving on.

Edited by ThreadKiller

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1 minute ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

I'm done debating anything with you. Not interested in getting into a back and forth insults game with you from behind a keyboard so I'll let you feel good about yourself and have that one. James Conner has been through some injuries, maybe more than others at this point in their careers. All RBs are susceptible to injury.

Moving on.

I meant it as:  Even you, as someone arguing against me, can see that wasn't the point I was trying to make.  Didn't mean to come across insulting, but we'll move on because we're hogging this thread and feels like were debating two different things.

 

Cheers!

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

I meant it as:  Even you, as someone arguing against me, can see that wasn't the point I was trying to make.  Didn't mean to come across insulting, but we'll move on because we're hogging this thread and feels like were debating two different things.

 

Cheers!

Thanks for your contributions to a dialogue on the issue that is probably of most interest to fantasy players: Conner’s injury likelihood.  I’m torn on it myself - and lots of excellent points made overall throughout this thread.

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Lets be real, if we all were putting some money on if conner can last the whole year we all betting against him lol 

But I hope he can kill it , great kid, talent, story,  doesn't get any better there 

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4 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Lets be real, if we all were putting some money on if conner can last the whole year we all betting against him lol 

But I hope he can kill it , great kid, talent, story,  doesn't get any better there 

And he currently looks like a comic-book artist drew him - I hope he can, too!

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9 hours ago, Fort4242 said:

Sure - but I think that's just semantics.  For the first snap of the game Tarik Cohen was on the field, so technically he was the "starter" over Montgomery.  But all those RBs played in 16 games even if they weren't technically listed as the starter.  So I don't think your point really makes any sense.  You're trying to illustrate that it's extremely rare for an RB to last all 16 games, when in fact, I just provided a list of plenty of RBs that played all 16, and then a few more who played in 15. 

Why did you only look at games started?  And not take a look at the actual play of the game?

So sure, there might have only been 4 RBs who technically "started" 16 games, but that does not illustrate the point.  I don't care about my fantasy RB being the "starter" on game day.  I care if he plays and gives me points.  

Right, but even if I grant you the complete benefit of the doubt, it's what 10 or 12 guys who played a big role in 15 or 16 NFL games. There are 32 teams man. That means at least two- thirds of starters are not making it through a season. There's just so much confirmation bias in how people react to injuries. If Conner gets hurt, "haha, that dude is made of glass, I knew he'd get hurt." If CMC gets hurt, "just a freak injury, could have happened to anyone". 

All these dudes will get hurt and miss games. Some guys have a string of bad luck. Some guys have a string of good luck. But that's what it is, luck.*

*Unless a guy is wildly out of shape or whatever, I know...

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40 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

Lets be real, if we all were putting some money on if conner can last the whole year we all betting against him lol 

But I hope he can kill it , great kid, talent, story,  doesn't get any better there 

I would make that bet on every single NFL RB. 

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1 hour ago, Savatage79 said:

Lets be real, if we all were putting some money on if conner can last the whole year we all betting against him lol 

But I hope he can kill it , great kid, talent, story,  doesn't get any better there 

I agree with that, but I still like him in round 3 or 4 of a 12 teamer taking into account his upside vs injury risk.  I just want him healthy for 12-14 weeks and hope some those include the fantasy playoffs.  It's not like you get a 0 if he is injured. You get to plug in some other fantasy player who will accrue some points (unless he gets injured on the first drive of the game...then that's just unlucky).

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Seems like injury fears are the big hang up here. I happen to think that risk is baked into his price. 
 

I personally don’t shy away from an injury risk at the correct price. The draw with Conner is the immense upside. 
 

I’d rather have a guy who misses 3 games while putting up top 8 RB numbers when he plays than a dude who plays every game but at a RB15 clip. If Conner gets hurt, you can simply start someone else for a couple weeks. 🤷‍♂️

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I still say people that didn't get burned by him specifically in playoffs 2 years ago and then having a rough season last year are going to be way more optimistic about drafting him than those that had him in these back to back years. As I said I'll draft him but I have to really love the price and who's around him because I just am not as high on him going into a 3rd year after him hurting me the last two at the wrong times.  

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1 hour ago, Savatage79 said:

I still say people that didn't get burned by him specifically in playoffs 2 years ago and then having a rough season last year are going to be way more optimistic about drafting him than those that had him in these back to back years. As I said I'll draft him but I have to really love the price and who's around him because I just am not as high on him going into a 3rd year after him hurting me the last two at the wrong times.  

Reacting emotionally to getting burned by an injury is exactly what you should NOT do. 

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5 hours ago, ajs723 said:

If Conner gets hurt, "haha, that dude is made of glass, I knew he'd get hurt." If CMC gets hurt, "just a freak injury, could have happened to anyone". 

All these dudes will get hurt and miss games. Some guys have a string of bad luck. Some guys have a string of good luck. But that's what it is, luck.*

What a terrible argument.

So you conclude that because every RB has a chance of getting hurt they all have the same chance of getting hurt? I’m sorry that’s just...dumb. I don’t know how else to put it. 

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2 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Reacting emotionally to getting burned by an injury is exactly what you should NOT do. 

The thousands I've won in my fantasy career says otherwise 

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4 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

I still say people that didn't get burned by him specifically in playoffs 2 years ago and then having a rough season last year are going to be way more optimistic about drafting him than those that had him in these back to back years. As I said I'll draft him but I have to really love the price and who's around him because I just am not as high on him going into a 3rd year after him hurting me the last two at the wrong times.  


This is exactly right. Conner was the most frustrating fantasy player I’ve ever owned last year. I penciled him into my eternal DND list when he left in the first quarter of that game vs. the Browns last year. Yet I’m back in this damn thread again because of that juicy upside. 
 

The reality is that Conner just has an extremely violent and “fight for every last inch” type of running style that leads to injuries. Yes all RBs have a chance of injury, but Conner’s running style multiplies those chances. 

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41 minutes ago, Savatage79 said:

The thousands I've won in my fantasy career says otherwise 

You play on sites that accept Vietnamese Đoòng?

s-l400.jpg

No need to brag man. We're all winners here.

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14 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Right, but even if I grant you the complete benefit of the doubt, it's what 10 or 12 guys who played a big role in 15 or 16 NFL games. There are 32 teams man. That means at least two- thirds of starters are not making it through a season. There's just so much confirmation bias in how people react to injuries. If Conner gets hurt, "haha, that dude is made of glass, I knew he'd get hurt." If CMC gets hurt, "just a freak injury, could have happened to anyone". 

All these dudes will get hurt and miss games. Some guys have a string of bad luck. Some guys have a string of good luck. But that's what it is, luck.*

*Unless a guy is wildly out of shape or whatever, I know...

If you read all the back and forth above - take out Ron Jones and Frank Gore - it's 16 guys by my count who played 15 or 16 games.  

Sure there's 32 NFL teams, but not everyone has a bellcow starter that you would look at it in this data.  

Perfect example, the TB backfield.  Ron Jones was the most productive RB they had and started several games, and played all 16.  But it was a split backfield all season with Peyton Barber.  I'm not allowed to use Ron Jones as a selling point for RBs playing 16 games, so IMO, they shouldn't get counted when analyzing teams either.  Same thing with the 49ers backfield.  Always an RBBC with guys rotating in.  I don't think you can look at them and say "they didn't have a bellcow start 16 games" because they didn't either, but they didn't have the opportunity.

So to me, I didn't even include certain backfields when looking:

Tampa Bay: Originally included Ron Jones - part of an RBBC so makes sense I leave him off - but can't include the TB backfield then when calculating "out of"

San Fran: So much rotation and a true RBBC

Miami: Drake traded mid-season and then an RBBC of Ballage, Laird and Walton

Buffalo: Again, I originally included Gore, but if I'm taking him off my list because he wasn't a bell cow, then this is an RBBC backfield.

LA Chargers: Gordon came back mid-season (Ekeler did play all 16 btw)

KC Chiefs: RBBC with Shady and Damien - both ended up getting hurt, which they have a history of doing

So again if we look at the backfields that had a "primary RB handling the load" there was 25 of those - 15 of them played 15 or 16 games.

So who were the 10 "primary RBs" that didn't make it to 15 games?

Josh Jacobs - rookie season

Chris Carson - injury history

Dalvin Cook - injury history

Saquon Barkley - high ankle sprain

James Conner - injury history

Kerryon Johnson - injury history

Devonta Freeman - injury history

Alvin Kamara - high ankle sprain

David Johnson: AZ backfield is tricky to look at.  Drake came over mid-season.  DJ was pegged the bell cow start of the season.  But DJ got hurt, and has an injury history.

Marlon Mack: Played 14, but has an injury history

So again, if we analyze 25 backfields that came into the season with a "primary RB" and not an RBBC, 15/25 played 15+ games.

Out of the 10 that missed more than one game:

1 was a rookie

2 had what I would consider a random injury - Kamara and Barkley

7 had an injury history

So IDK do with it what you want, but it seems to me like primary RBs without an injury history tend to hold up pretty well.  A few random injuries every year which is expected, and then mostly guys with an injury history seem to be the repeat offenders.  Sure, there's one or two guys with a history that end up lasting (Fournette, A. Jones) but seems like the odds are quite small and pretty random.

All that said, I do think Conner's ADP right now is attractive.  If you can get him as your RB3 or RB2 with a heavy WR start, I like that upside.  The risk seems worth it for my RB3.  We'll see where the ADP ends up in August.

 

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Buyers beware!!! The hype train is coming with the return of Big Ben. Conner is going to miss time, so if you draft him the best option is to dart throw snell or McFarland. McFarland has some juice he ran a 4.4 and his tape shows he is faster. They want that weapon, so immediately that is going to reduce conners pass situations. Conner is going to be their grinder with that defense. Conner is RB3 with RB2 upside. If you can grab him in the late 3rd or early 4th round it isn't the en oof the world. When August comes around his adp is going to creep up real slowly.

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

If you read all the back and forth above - take out Ron Jones and Frank Gore - it's 16 guys by my count who played 15 or 16 games.  

Sure there's 32 NFL teams, but not everyone has a bellcow starter that you would look at it in this data.  

Perfect example, the TB backfield.  Ron Jones was the most productive RB they had and started several games, and played all 16.  But it was a split backfield all season with Peyton Barber.  I'm not allowed to use Ron Jones as a selling point for RBs playing 16 games, so IMO, they shouldn't get counted when analyzing teams either.  Same thing with the 49ers backfield.  Always an RBBC with guys rotating in.  I don't think you can look at them and say "they didn't have a bellcow start 16 games" because they didn't either, but they didn't have the opportunity.

So to me, I didn't even include certain backfields when looking:

Tampa Bay: Originally included Ron Jones - part of an RBBC so makes sense I leave him off - but can't include the TB backfield then when calculating "out of"

San Fran: So much rotation and a true RBBC

Miami: Drake traded mid-season and then an RBBC of Ballage, Laird and Walton

Buffalo: Again, I originally included Gore, but if I'm taking him off my list because he wasn't a bell cow, then this is an RBBC backfield.

LA Chargers: Gordon came back mid-season (Ekeler did play all 16 btw)

KC Chiefs: RBBC with Shady and Damien - both ended up getting hurt, which they have a history of doing

So again if we look at the backfields that had a "primary RB handling the load" there was 25 of those - 15 of them played 15 or 16 games.

So who were the 10 "primary RBs" that didn't make it to 15 games?

Josh Jacobs - rookie season

Chris Carson - injury history

Dalvin Cook - injury history

Saquon Barkley - high ankle sprain

James Conner - injury history

Kerryon Johnson - injury history

Devonta Freeman - injury history

Alvin Kamara - high ankle sprain

David Johnson: AZ backfield is tricky to look at.  Drake came over mid-season.  DJ was pegged the bell cow start of the season.  But DJ got hurt, and has an injury history.

Marlon Mack: Played 14, but has an injury history

So again, if we analyze 25 backfields that came into the season with a "primary RB" and not an RBBC, 15/25 played 15+ games.

Out of the 10 that missed more than one game:

1 was a rookie

2 had what I would consider a random injury - Kamara and Barkley

7 had an injury history

So IDK do with it what you want, but it seems to me like primary RBs without an injury history tend to hold up pretty well.  A few random injuries every year which is expected, and then mostly guys with an injury history seem to be the repeat offenders.  Sure, there's one or two guys with a history that end up lasting (Fournette, A. Jones) but seems like the odds are quite small and pretty random.

All that said, I do think Conner's ADP right now is attractive.  If you can get him as your RB3 or RB2 with a heavy WR start, I like that upside.  The risk seems worth it for my RB3.  We'll see where the ADP ends up in August.

 

There's a lot here, and this is good stuff, but it's the hand wave of the Kamara and Barkley injuries that gets under my skin. That's two top five RBs with no major injury history that got hurt. If that doesn't prove that no one is safe, I don't know what does.

Let's look at the top 20 RBs. This is Fantasy Pros rankings.

1. CMC - Seemingly not human

2. Barkley - Injury history

3. Elliott - Injury history and huge workload

4. Henry - Injury history and tough run style

5. Cook - Injury history

6. Kamara -Injury history

7. Mixon - Mostly healthy

8. Chubb - Healthy, still a small sample.

9. Jacobs - Small sample, already missed multiple games.

10. Jones - Injury history.

11. Drake - Mostly healthy, never had a full workload.

12. Sanders - Small sample, already missed games.

13. Ekeler - Injury history.

14. Gurley - Injury history.

15. CEH - Rookie

16. Carson - Injury history.

17. Fournette - Injury history.

18. Gordon - Injury history.

19. Taylor - Rookie

20. David Johnson - Injury history.

 

No Conner in the top twenty, because he has an... injury history. No one can rationally analyze that and not realize it's insane. 

Conner should be no worse than 12 or 13 in RB rankings, but he'll be taken outside of the top 25 in some places. I'll say it again. Best. Value. Player. Period.

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57 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

There's a lot here, and this is good stuff, but it's the hand wave of the Kamara and Barkley injuries that gets under my skin. That's two top five RBs with no major injury history that got hurt. If that doesn't prove that no one is safe, I don't know what does.

Let's look at the top 20 RBs. This is Fantasy Pros rankings.

2. Barkley - Injury history

3. Elliott - Injury history and huge workload

4. Henry - Injury history and tough run style

6. Kamara -Injury history

13. Ekeler - Injury history.

The hand wave has to do with the fact neither guy really has an extensive injury history.  I know Kamara has gotten knocked out of a game before with a concussion, but that was his only injury up until the ankle last season.  So seems more like a random injury than recurring.  Same with Barkley.  

Can you please explain the bolded players and outline their "injury history?"  I'm curious what you come up with.  

 

Looking at FantasyPros rankings, I would take Conner ahead of David Johnson and Melvin Gordon.  But I would also take Ingram ahead of Conner.  So I think he's pretty reasonably priced.  Again, if I can snag him as my RB3, sign me up.  

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10 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

The hand wave has to do with the fact neither guy really has an extensive injury history.  I know Kamara has gotten knocked out of a game before with a concussion, but that was his only injury up until the ankle last season.  So seems more like a random injury than recurring.  Same with Barkley.  

Can you please explain the bolded players and outline their "injury history?"  I'm curious what you come up with.  

 

Looking at FantasyPros rankings, I would take Conner ahead of David Johnson and Melvin Gordon.  But I would also take Ingram ahead of Conner.  So I think he's pretty reasonably priced.  Again, if I can snag him as my RB3, sign me up.  

That's right about the company I have Conner in with DJ, Gordon, and Bell. I would prefer DJ, and possibly Gordon, over Conner, but I'm a tad low on Pittsburgh at the moment. 

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15 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

The hand wave has to do with the fact neither guy really has an extensive injury history.  I know Kamara has gotten knocked out of a game before with a concussion, but that was his only injury up until the ankle last season.  So seems more like a random injury than recurring.  Same with Barkley.  

Can you please explain the bolded players and outline their "injury history?"  I'm curious what you come up with.  

 

Looking at FantasyPros rankings, I would take Conner ahead of David Johnson and Melvin Gordon.  But I would also take Ingram ahead of Conner.  So I think he's pretty reasonably priced.  Again, if I can snag him as my RB3, sign me up.  

What defines injury history is a guy having injuries in his history, right? If Barkley has a high ankle sprain in week 2 this year (knock on wood), the entire fantasy community will collectively scream, "That's it, I'm done with this guy. Great talent, but he can't stay healthy. DND moving forward." Same with Kamara. 

Conner has what, two noteworthy injuries in his pro career and a couple dings he's played through.  That's enough to say he's injury prone while other guys with similar histories were just victims of random bad luck. There's no logic here.

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