Boudewijn

James Conner 2020 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

the company I have Conner in with DJ, Gordon, and Bell.

That makes sense, because I would like all of them - somewhere in the distant past.

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

What defines injury history is a guy having injuries in his history, right? If Barkley has a high ankle sprain in week 2 this year (knock on wood), the entire fantasy community will collectively scream, "That's it, I'm done with this guy. Great talent, but he can't stay healthy. DND moving forward." Same with Kamara. 

Conner has what, two noteworthy injuries in his pro career and a couple dings he's played through.  That's enough to say he's injury prone while other guys with similar histories were just victims of random bad luck. There's no logic here.

"The 24-year-old first suffered a knee injury in Pittsburgh's Week 2 matchup against the Seahawks and later endured a shoulder injury against the Dolphins on "Monday Night Football" in Week 8 that would plague the back for the rest of the season. He also had a thigh injury late in the year."

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/steelers-gm-hopeful-james-conner-can-get-back-on-track-after-disappointing-injury-plagued-2019/

Sounds like 3 different injuries just last year.  

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/12/2/18123266/james-conner-injury-steelers-chargers-leveon-bell

Missed 3 games in 2018.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2862943-steelers-james-conner-out-vs-bengals-with-shoulder-injury#:~:text=29%2C 2017%2C after suffering a,MCL injury that required surgery.&text=While playing for the Panthers,recovered from his knee injury.

This article highlights another season ending injury in 2017 on his knee.

 

So 5 different injuries causing him to miss time over his 3 year career.  Seems a little different than "random."

You also completely ignored the point I made about showing me the injury history for the players I put in bold.  (Hint: It's not that long for all of them put together)

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24 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

That's right about the company I have Conner in with DJ, Gordon, and Bell. I would prefer DJ, and possibly Gordon, over Conner, but I'm a tad low on Pittsburgh at the moment. 

Yeah they all have the label of recent RB1s that have an injury history.  We've seen all 4 guys dominate before.  Conner is the only RB still on his team from when he was dominant.  Personally I just don't think Gordon is that good so he's for sure #4 on that list for me.  DJ, Bell and Conner are all so close though.  DJ could get crazy volume this season.  Hopefully the Jets Oline is better and gives Bell more efficiency.  And Conner is on the same team he's been dominant with before, and (hopefully) gets his starting QB back.  These 4 RBs especially will be interesting to follow in the pre-season.

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29 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

"The 24-year-old first suffered a knee injury in Pittsburgh's Week 2 matchup against the Seahawks and later endured a shoulder injury against the Dolphins on "Monday Night Football" in Week 8 that would plague the back for the rest of the season. He also had a thigh injury late in the year."

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/steelers-gm-hopeful-james-conner-can-get-back-on-track-after-disappointing-injury-plagued-2019/

Sounds like 3 different injuries just last year.  

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/12/2/18123266/james-conner-injury-steelers-chargers-leveon-bell

Missed 3 games in 2018.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2862943-steelers-james-conner-out-vs-bengals-with-shoulder-injury#:~:text=29%2C 2017%2C after suffering a,MCL injury that required surgery.&text=While playing for the Panthers,recovered from his knee injury.

This article highlights another season ending injury in 2017 on his knee.

 

So 5 different injuries causing him to miss time over his 3 year career.  Seems a little different than "random."

You also completely ignored the point I made about showing me the injury history for the players I put in bold.  (Hint: It's not that long for all of them put together)

But why can't we hand wave the three games missed in 2018 for a minor injury. You would if that were Kamara or Barkley. When they miss a few games here and there it's just normal bad luck. When Conner misses a few games it's because he, specifically, is injury prone and not because all RBs miss a few games here and there.

Conner had a shoulder injury last year, the other knee and the thigh were not serious. He also had the knee back in 2017. So two relatively significant injuries in his career. If it weren't for those two, we'd be talking about what a durable back this guy is. 

I just think it's ignorant to try to glean anything from a guy getting hurt twice playing RB in the NFL. That's not an outlier, that's the norm. And it's not like young RBs never recover from being hurt early in their careers. In fact, the opposite is more often true. Look at Cook, Fournette, Aaron Jones, etc. All guys that were in the exact same position as Conner. "Good player, always hurt. Fade him." Crazy. This isn't even about Conner anymore. This is about the awful strategy of avoiding talented young RBs because they got hurt playing RB in the NFL. As if you somehow know that the RB you drafted is going to stay healthy. If someone is seriously drafting Jonathan Taylor or David Johnson ahead of Conner, then you don't deserve to win anything.

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54 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Yeah they all have the label of recent RB1s that have an injury history.  We've seen all 4 guys dominate before.  Conner is the only RB still on his team from when he was dominant.  Personally I just don't think Gordon is that good so he's for sure #4 on that list for me.  DJ, Bell and Conner are all so close though.  DJ could get crazy volume this season.  Hopefully the Jets Oline is better and gives Bell more efficiency.  And Conner is on the same team he's been dominant with before, and (hopefully) gets his starting QB back.  These 4 RBs especially will be interesting to follow in the pre-season.

I personally have DJ over Conner, but I can see the case for Conner outscoring all four. I believe DJs potential volume outweighs Conners injury risk. If Hyde can go over 1K yards and get 8 touchdowns, I think DJ can nails that as a safe floor. I personally would rank them DJ, Gordon, Bell, Conner at this moment, but it's still only June. 

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6 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

But why can't we hand wave the three games missed in 2018 for a minor injury. You would if that were Kamara or Barkley. When they miss a few games here and there it's just normal bad luck. When Conner misses a few games it's because he, specifically, is injury prone and not because all RBs miss a few games here and there.

Because that was one of many injuries.  Not one random one.  And is it minor if he misses 3 games?  If Barkley or Kamara continuously miss time with injuries, I'll be happy to call them injury prone too.  One injury seems random.  Constant injury seems like a pattern.

7 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Conner had a shoulder injury last year, the other knee and the thigh were not serious. He also had the knee back in 2017. So two relatively significant injuries in his career. If it weren't for those two, we'd be talking about what a durable back this guy is. 

Not serious?  He missed games because of them.  

No we wouldn't - because we could still point to the other 3 times he got hurt.

9 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I just think it's ignorant to try to glean anything from a guy getting hurt twice playing RB in the NFL. That's not an outlier, that's the norm. And it's not like young RBs never recover from being hurt early in their careers. In fact, the opposite is more often true. Look at Cook, Fournette, Aaron Jones, etc. All guys that were in the exact same position as Conner. "Good player, always hurt. Fade him." Crazy. This isn't even about Conner anymore. This is about the awful strategy of avoiding talented young RBs because they got hurt playing RB in the NFL. As if you somehow know that the RB you drafted is going to stay healthy. If someone is seriously drafting Jonathan Taylor or David Johnson ahead of Conner, then you don't deserve to win anything.

**Hurt 5 times in 3 years** And honestly 5 is being generous, because I'm only counting the shoulder injury as one injury.  I believe he came back, re-injured it, and missed further time.  

I don't know for sure which RBs will get hurt or not.  Never claimed I did.  No one does.  But to sit here and act like Conner doesn't have a littered injury history is the ignorant move IMO.  If Conner rips off several seasons playing where he lasts 15+ games I'll eat crow.  

Just the same, if Kamara or Barkley get dinged up and miss games for the next few years continuously, I'm happy to label them injury prone too.  As of now, they're not.  They've had one isolated injury, one season.  

You're looking at 3 of Conner's injuries and saying they're "insignificant" and not counting them, as if they didn't happen.  I guess this is where the discussion ends because if you can't see how 5 injuries in a 3 year career seems "injury prone" because you want to pretend 3 of them didn't happen, then there's nothing to get to talk about because you're omitting facts to push your narrative.  

 

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28 minutes ago, buckeyestilidie said:

I personally have DJ over Conner, but I can see the case for Conner outscoring all four. I believe DJs potential volume outweighs Conners injury risk. If Hyde can go over 1K yards and get 8 touchdowns, I think DJ can nails that as a safe floor. I personally would rank them DJ, Gordon, Bell, Conner at this moment, but it's still only June. 

 

DJ has just as much injury risk as Conner. At least Conner is in his prime so he has more upside if he stays healthy. DJ could be this years Devonta Freeman.

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9 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

DJ has just as much injury risk as Conner. At least Conner is in his prime so he has more upside if he stays healthy. DJ could be this years Devonta Freeman.

Ehhhhhhh, I would disagree, but I see what you're saying. DJ did buckle up his ankle last year, but wasn't injured again until 2017, where he injured his wrist. I would argue those two injuries in the last three seasons is way more than Conner has sustained, but I get the Freeman comp. 

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14 minutes ago, Fort4242 said:

Because that was one of many injuries.  Not one random one.  And is it minor if he misses 3 games?  If Barkley or Kamara continuously miss time with injuries, I'll be happy to call them injury prone too.  One injury seems random.  Constant injury seems like a pattern.

Not serious?  He missed games because of them.  

No we wouldn't - because we could still point to the other 3 times he got hurt.

**Hurt 5 times in 3 years** And honestly 5 is being generous, because I'm only counting the shoulder injury as one injury.  I believe he came back, re-injured it, and missed further time.  

I don't know for sure which RBs will get hurt or not.  Never claimed I did.  No one does.  But to sit here and act like Conner doesn't have a littered injury history is the ignorant move IMO.  If Conner rips off several seasons playing where he lasts 15+ games I'll eat crow.  

Just the same, if Kamara or Barkley get dinged up and miss games for the next few years continuously, I'm happy to label them injury prone too.  As of now, they're not.  They've had one isolated injury, one season.  

You're looking at 3 of Conner's injuries and saying they're "insignificant" and not counting them, as if they didn't happen.  I guess this is where the discussion ends because if you can't see how 5 injuries in a 3 year career seems "injury prone" because you want to pretend 3 of them didn't happen, then there's nothing to get to talk about because you're omitting facts to push your narrative.  

 

This is quickly approaching agree to disagree territory.

I'm not ignoring his other injuries. I was making the point that people ignore minor injuries with some guys, and say they're part of some foretold grand pattern with others.

It's not about you eating crow if Conner stays healthy, or me eating crow if he gets hurt this year. Either is possible. Same for Kamara or Barkley. 

Again, I think we fundamentally just disagree here. Nothing wrong with that.

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I have DJ Bell and Gurley all above Connor and Melvin Gordon after Connor for my rankings

 

side note: Big Ben's health needs to be factored into Connor IMO adding more injury risk than simply comparing RB to RB, if big ben goes down like we've seen numerous times, connor will suffer then even if he does stay healthy, hence why i prefer DJ Bell and Gurley over Connor

 

my 2 cents

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Who would be the backup to own should Conner go down? Or would it just be a full blown RBBC? 

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5 hours ago, 30Burger said:

Who would be the backup to own should Conner go down? Or would it just be a full blown RBBC? 

Samuel by default, but overall just an rbbc...gotta see how McFarland does and Snell is just there.  But overall it's not been fun at all when conner goes down tossing in a backup

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3 hours ago, Savatage79 said:

Samuel by default,

You're the Steelers fan, but when I researched Conner I found a lot of articles that expect Jaylen Samuels to be not even on the final 53.
https://steelersdepot.com/2020/01/buy-or-sell-jaylen-samuels-will-not-make-the-53-in-2020/

Quote

Even though he received the lion’s share of the snaps while James Conner was out with injury, second-year running back Jaylen Samuels put up some pretty ugly efficiency numbers, and Benny Snell was clearly favored as the featured runner. With Kerrith Whyte an option and the possibility of adding a draft pick, it’s reasonable to speculate whether or not the former fifth-round pick will make it onto the 53-man roster next season.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2020-outlook-jaylen-samuels/

Quote

Jaylen Samuels will compete for playing time in training camp this summer after a disappointing 2019. He wasn't nearly as efficient statistically and he scored fewer touchdowns despite more touches than from his rookie season. It seems like a longshot for Samuels to be a reliable Fantasy contributor.

https://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2020/05/13/steelers-2020-nfl-roster-bubble-draft-jaylen-samuels/

Quote

There might not have been a player more disappointing in 2019 for the Steelers than Samuels. There was a golden opportunity for Samuels to come in and establish himself as a serious weapon in this offense and he couldn’t do it. Now, with the addition of Anthony McFarland Jr., there isn’t room for one running back. If I’m picking right now between Samuels and Kerrith Whyte, I’m keeping Whyte.

 

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13 hours ago, 30Burger said:

Who would be the backup to own should Conner go down? Or would it just be a full blown RBBC? 

I thought it was going to be McFarland but it will probably be a messy RBBC

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15 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Just haven't been as in tune as normal so wasn't aware, fantasy hasn't fully kicked in for me yet since I didnt draft any leagues yet but I'm ok with it as Samuel never really did much.

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On 6/12/2020 at 2:03 PM, ajs723 said:

“I just think it's ignorant to try to glean anything from a guy getting hurt twice playing RB in the NFL. That's not an outlier, that's the norm. And it's not like young RBs never recover from being hurt early in their careers. In fact, the opposite is more often true. Look at Cook, Fournette, Aaron Jones, etc. All guys that were in the exact same position as Conner. "Good player, always hurt. Fade him." Crazy. This isn't even about Conner anymore. This is about the awful strategy of avoiding talented young RBs because they got hurt playing RB in the NFL. As if you somehow know that the RB you drafted is going to stay healthy. If someone is seriously drafting Jonathan Taylor or David Johnson ahead of Conner, then you don't deserve to win anything.”


I guess I’m among those who believe Connor’s adp is about where it should be or even lower. It’s not just a history of injury but a guy who has battled cancer, a tumor surrounding his heart which required six months of chemo! That the organization doesn’t have much faith apparently doesn’t mean anything to you. To me, that he’s playing w/o a contract says a lot. That said, he talks like a man on a mission. He doesn’t give a $h!+ that he doesn’t have a contract & he’s not playing for one. He’s not going out there to help them win some games, he’s determined to help them win it all! Gotta love the resolve & he’s from the area, a Steeler thru & thru. Really like this player but he’s not only one that’s up against it. Gronk & Bridgewater are a couple of guys I hope to roll with. 

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I traded Conner the other day and got a nice return for him in my PPR league.  As was mentioned, Conner just has too many things working against him this year imo.  I would like to see him prove me wrong but I think he'll end up in a committee.

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He won’t end up in a committee - but the injury/health risk is significant.  Still like him right now as a value pick.

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13 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I traded Conner the other day and got a nice return for him in my PPR league.  As was mentioned, Conner just has too many things working against him this year imo.  I would like to see him prove me wrong but I think he'll end up in a committee.

Way too many things working against him.

1. He plays RB in the NFL, so there's a reasonable chance he could get injured.

 

 

 

.... So yeah, DND.

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I'd be perfectly fine with drafting Conner and handcuffing with McFarland. He's a good value and picking up the rookie in the later rounds will give you some insurance with upside.

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I’m all in on Conner this year. Big Ben being back, Pittsburgh generally sticks to one main rb which Tomlin has confirmed, he is very talented, in a contract year, still reasonably young and like a few other players is coming into this season very ripped after the COVID stuff. There is injury risk for sure but at a 4th rd price tag usually in redraft I’m buying. Occasionally been seeing him drop to 5th rd. Pretty good value on someone who could easily produce low rb1 numbers and won’t kill your season if he gets injured given where he is being drafted

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Posted (edited)

Looks like he's sneaking up daft boards. In mocks he's going mid 2nd to top of the 3rd. Usually isn't there at pick 30 for me

Edited by scheibler

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2 hours ago, scheibler said:

Looks like he's sneaking up daft boards. In mocks he's going mid 2nd to top of the 3rd. Usually isn't there at pick 30 for me

mid 2nd is laughable. hope someone takes conner mid 2nd leaving elite wr/te/qb for me

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I wouldn't take Conner before the 3rd this year.  It isn't because of his ability and it's more because of his health concerns.  He's very mentally tough which is good but he's just too injury prone.

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