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James Conner 2020 Outlook

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he just went 32 overall in a 20 dollar dk bestball. i would not give him a hard look until the 60s so i will be getting no shares of him. He is yet to play 16 games in a season. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, isuckatdfs said:

he just went 32 overall in a 20 dollar dk bestball. i would not give him a hard look until the 60s so i will be getting no shares of him. He is yet to play 16 games in a season. 

For this reason, James Conner is the most undervalued player in fantasy coming into the season.

The only knock on him is that he had the audacity to get hurt playing RB in the NFL.

He's a proven RB1 when healthy. He's on a team that should be good on offense. He has no legit competition on the roster.

But he got hurt a couple times, DND!!

Edited by ajs723
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6 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

For this reason, James Conner is the most undervalued player in fantasy coming into the season.

The only knock on him is that he had the audacity to get hurt playing RB in the NFL.

He's a proven RB1 when healthy. He's on a team that should be good on offense. He has no legit competition on the roster.

But he got hurt a couple times, DND!!

It isn't like he just got injured on the football field, he's also a cancer survivor at a time where covid-19 is rampant.

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

For this reason, James Conner is the most undervalued player in fantasy coming into the season.

The only knock on him is that he had the audacity to get hurt playing RB in the NFL.

He's a proven RB1 when healthy. He's on a team that should be good on offense. He has no legit competition on the roster.

But he got hurt a couple times, DND!!

and if big ben goes down he becomes low end rb2 flex

so his production is tied to his health and his old a** qb health

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11 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

and if big ben goes down he becomes low end rb2 flex

so his production is tied to his health and his old a** qb health

I mean, the same is true for most skill position players. Wentz has an injury history. Does that make you drop Sanders?

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

I mean, the same is true for most skill position players. Wentz has an injury history. Does that make you drop Sanders?

wentz isnt 38 with arm problems. its just one factor in my willingness to draft conner.

id reach for any reasonable rb in rd1 rather than take conner in the 2nd

 

consenus ppr ranks got conner rb 19, adp rb 22 (skewed a little with way early drafts) overall adp 45. that seems reasonable with the risk. atleast for me. and i still rather have bell.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

For this reason, James Conner is the most undervalued player in fantasy coming into the season.

The only knock on him is that he had the audacity to get hurt playing RB in the NFL.

He's a proven RB1 when healthy. He's on a team that should be good on offense. He has no legit competition on the roster.

But he got hurt a couple times, DND!!


It’s also the types of injuries. These are not fluke ACL tears or sprained ankles. AC joint sprains and soft tissue injures are likely to keep happening.
The Oline is also not getting younger or better and the defense should be really really good which will Likey keep him from getting a lot of those valuable receptions and likely less total points and yards by the offense. 
 

Reports have come out that Benny snell has “transformed” his body and Mike Tomlin has a bit of a crush on him as well. 
 

All that said I definitely believe there is a path for Conner  to become a high level RB1 I’d just rather take someone else at his value and grab fournette or Johnathan Taylor later. 

Edited by Stonej14

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

mid 2nd is laughable. hope someone takes conner mid 2nd leaving elite wr/te/qb for me

At took him at 4 in a standard league last year.

Not 4th round - 4th pick.

It was a mistake. 

Good news is: I followed up by taking Damien Williams in the 2nd then AaRod in the 3rd... so I started 1-7 and could safely ignore that team the rest of the year

Edit: I like Conner. He's one of the last "safe" RBs in that 3rd/4th round area. Safer than Bell or Gurley or Carson, maybe Fournette. 

Though I would consider "reaching" for a Mostert or Taylor maybe instead

Edited by SadFaceHappy
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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:


It’s also the types of injuries. These are not fluke ACL tears or sprained ankles. AC joint sprains and soft tissue injures are likely to keep happening.
The Oline is also not getting younger or better and the defense should be really really good which will Likey keep him from getting a lot of those valuable receptions and likely less total points and yards by the offense. 
 

Reports have come out that Benny snell has “transformed” his body and Mike Tomlin has a bit of a crush on him as well. 
 

All that said I definitely believe there is a path for Conner  to become a high level RB1 I’d just rather take someone else at his value and grab fournette or Johnathan Taylor later. 

I am definitely taking Conner over guys like Taylor, Bell, Carson, Gurley and probably Fournette too.

 

Fantasy players have short memories. We're talking about a guy who was a first rounder very recently. It's not like he's hurt right now, or 29 years old.

Everything that's being said about Conner was said repeatedly about Dalvin Cook and Fournette one year ago. 

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Personally in PPR I have Conner ranked at RB13 ahead of guys like ekeler, Aaron Jones, fournette, Carson, Gordon, etc. 

It's a risk, but if him and Ben stay healthy this system always produces mid-high end RB1

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I think Conner in the 2nd is silly but he has value somewhere between pick 36-40 (a little ahead of his ADP). I have him ranked alongside Carson, Fournette, and Gurley in standard. Conner has the lowest ADP of that group so has the potential to be a good value based on my rankings. 
 

Sure, his value will be hurt if Ben goes down, But if Ben is healthy he has top 5 upside. The risk is baked into his price. 

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wow yall optimistic as hell on Conner, injury prone old QB that could tank his value plus his own injury concerns, some of the names your taking Conner over is baffling to me hah

 

just my 2 cents

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8 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

wow yall optimistic as hell on Conner, injury prone old QB that could tank his value plus his own injury concerns, some of the names your taking Conner over is baffling to me hah

 

just my 2 cents

The thing to consider though is that he has weekly top 5 potential when he's on the field. If you are getting him in the 4/5th round, even if he misses a few games you are probably still going to be okay not having your RB2 or flex for a couple games. And that's even with assuming he misses games, no one can predict the future, and for all we know he could be healthy for the full season and the other guys like Carson and Gurley miss time...it's not like Conner is the only one from that tier that carries the injury red flag. And from that group, I think he has the highest ceiling. I'll gladly take him at his ADP and throw him into my flex spot after grabbing two top end RBs early.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, GoPackGo23 said:

The thing to consider though is that he has weekly top 5 potential when he's on the field. If you are getting him in the 4/5th round, even if he misses a few games you are probably still going to be okay not having your RB2 or flex for a couple games. And that's even with assuming he misses games, no one can predict the future, and for all we know he could be healthy for the full season and the other guys like Carson and Gurley miss time...it's not like Conner is the only one from that tier that carries the injury red flag. And from that group, I think he has the highest ceiling. I'll gladly take him at his ADP and throw him into my flex spot after grabbing two top end RBs early.

 

People are throwing out names like Fournette Bell Gurley DJ etc, thats mid/late 3rd early 4th round at least, not really around the 4/5 turn unless you get lucky

 

they all have their warts but LF - DJ - Carson - Ajones - Bell id easily prefer, because if Ben goes down, it kills Conner as well so its not just the RB's health you have to worry with and id venture to say Conner is bigger health risk than all of those guys, Gurley is a DND for me so ill just leave him out

Edited by kmoore1521

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1 minute ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

People are throwing out names like Fournette Bell Gurley DJ etc, thats mid/late 3rd early 4th round at least, not really around the 4/5 turn unless you get lucky

I personally still like Conner more than all those guys, close with DJ though. But I wouldn't be taking any of these RBs until the 4th round. I believe third round is a little early for me, unless you're sitting at the 3/4 turn in a 12 team league with a pick in the mid 30's, that's where I'd start looking to take him.

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Unless I land Conner in the 40's he just is a DND for me personally. Immense talent and opportunistic chance to succeed, but he is as durable as my damn jeep off-roading. Always breaking stuff!!

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15 hours ago, ajs723 said:

I am definitely taking Conner over guys like Taylor, Bell, Carson, Gurley and probably Fournette too.

 

Fantasy players have short memories. We're talking about a guy who was a first rounder very recently. It's not like he's hurt right now, or 29 years old.

Everything that's being said about Conner was said repeatedly about Dalvin Cook and Fournette one year ago. 

 

Difference to me between Conner and Cook and Fournette is that Conner just isn't that good.  Cook and Fournette were clearly talented and high pedigree guys who had the reigns in their offense and I'm not positive the Steelers are all in on Conner.  The fans were mostly pissed when they didn't take an RB early in the draft.  Unless the FO and coaching staff have an attachment to Conner, I don't feel comfortable using a 3rd or 4th round pick on an RB who could be easily replaced.  Drafting Conner feels like drafting a closer in baseball who starts the year with the job, but once he has a blowup or 2 get's replaced by someone better.  It might work out, but I'm not risking it that early, especially with the injury history as well.

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1 hour ago, Illusion_J said:

 

Difference to me between Conner and Cook and Fournette is that Conner just isn't that good.  Cook and Fournette were clearly talented and high pedigree guys who had the reigns in their offense and I'm not positive the Steelers are all in on Conner.  The fans were mostly pissed when they didn't take an RB early in the draft.  Unless the FO and coaching staff have an attachment to Conner, I don't feel comfortable using a 3rd or 4th round pick on an RB who could be easily replaced.  Drafting Conner feels like drafting a closer in baseball who starts the year with the job, but once he has a blowup or 2 get's replaced by someone better.  It might work out, but I'm not risking it that early, especially with the injury history as well.

I have a feeling that unless Conner starts out with some big games out of the gate, it's going to end up being a timeshare by midseason with Benny Snell and the rookie McFarland involved.  I know that Pittsburgh typically likes to use one rb and not rotate but that could change this year.

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22 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I have a feeling that unless Conner starts out with some big games out of the gate, it's going to end up being a timeshare by midseason with Benny Snell and the rookie McFarland involved.  I know that Pittsburgh typically likes to use one rb and not rotate but that could change this year.

 

Why would it change though given that you preface by saying they typically use 1 RB?

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

Why would it change though given that you preface by saying they typically use 1 RB?

I've read reports that Benny Snell and the rookie McFarland have also looked good in training camp and they know that Conner is a cancer survivor and has become injury prone.  They will likely give him a chance to be a 3-down back again to start the season but if he only has 2-3 mediocre to average games I wouldn't be surprised if Snell and/or McFarland become more involved.

If you look at Conner's first 6 games rushing last year before getting injured, they were very underwhelming.  He went 10 carries for 21 yards (2.1 ypc), 11 for 33 (3.0 ypc), 13 for 43 (3.3 ypc), 10 for 42 (4.2 ypc), 14 for 55 (3.9 ypc) and 16 for 41 (2.6 ypc).  He had one game where he had 23 carries for 145 yards but no other games over 100 yards rushing.  I understand that Ben was injured in game 2 and that was part of it but Mason Rudolph wasn't horrible in some games after he took over and Conner's rushing totals were still pretty bad.

Edited by sjm76

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I think Conner is being pretty underrated. I’m not sure I’ll end up drafting him, but he’s shown top 5 potential when his team is healthy. Y’all think guys like fournette and gurley and carson are going to perform if their QB’s get hurt? Everyone on the Steelers was a dumpster fire last year. Anybody who uses last year as a reflection of the level of talent on this offense will be sorely mistaken. 

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Posted (edited)

Not saying that Conner can't have a decent bounce back year but I would rather take players that aren't injury prone or cancer survivors (happy for people who beat cancer but I'm just saying that I'm sure it takes a toll on a person mentally as well as physically) to be my rb2 or flex especially in an odd year where covid-19 is rampant.

Edited by sjm76

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I think Conner is being pretty underrated. I’m not sure I’ll end up drafting him, but he’s shown top 5 potential when his team is healthy. Y’all think guys like fournette and gurley and carson are going to perform if their QB’s get hurt? Everyone on the Steelers was a dumpster fire last year. Anybody who uses last year as a reflection of the level of talent on this offense will be sorely mistaken. 

 

Big Ben Historically gets injured at a higher clip than most QB's, and Fournette's play isnt really tied to his QB, Jags QB's been all over the place dont think any team's defense has respected a QB they've had in dang near a decade hah, and Id take Conner over Gurley for sure

 

I'm not saying its a terrible move to take Conner in Round 3 necessarily, wont be me tho unless its mid-late 4th ADP

Edited by kmoore1521

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5 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

Big Ben Historically gets injured at a higher clip than most QB's, and Fournette's play isnt really tied to his QB, Jags QB's been all over the place dont think any team's defense has respected a QB they've had in dang near a decade hah, and Id take Conner over Gurley for sure

 

I'm not saying its a terrible move to take Conner in Round 3 necessarily, wont be me tho unless its mid-late 4th ADP

This is my stance as well.  Conner has been available in 4 drafts that I did when my pick came in the 3rd round and I passed on him all 4 times.  I would draft him over Todd Gurley though, but I would prefer to not draft either player this year.

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5 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I've read reports that Benny Snell and the rookie McFarland have also looked good in training camp and they know that Conner is a cancer survivor and has become injury prone.  They will likely give him a chance to be a 3-down back again to start the season but if he only has 2-3 mediocre to average games I wouldn't be surprised if Snell and/or McFarland become more involved.

If you look at Conner's first 6 games rushing last year before getting injured, they were very underwhelming.  He went 10 carries for 21 yards (2.1 ypc), 11 for 33 (3.0 ypc), 13 for 43 (3.3 ypc), 10 for 42 (4.2 ypc), 14 for 55 (3.9 ypc) and 16 for 41 (2.6 ypc).  He had one game where he had 23 carries for 145 yards but no other games over 100 yards rushing.  I understand that Ben was injured in game 2 and that was part of it but Mason Rudolph wasn't horrible in some games after he took over and Conner's rushing totals were still pretty bad.

Come on now, Rudolph was worse than terrible last year which is why he got benched for an undrafted rookie. He had 2 decent starts last year and both were against the worst teams in the NFL (Cin and pre week 14 MIA). So in starts where the team looked like an actual NFL offense Conner had good numbers. Against Cincinnati yeah his rushing stats were down but he had 8-80-1 receiving which in itself is 22 PPR points and against Miami he had 150 and a TD. The argument for Conner isn’t he’s an elitely talented back, it’s he’s in what I would describe as one of the top fantasy friendly RB offenses, it doesn’t matter what back starts for Tomlin they always produce (would put Tomlin and Reid at the top of that list) Fast Willie, Mendenhall, Bell, D-Will (temporarily) and Conner were all RB1’s in this system.

Could the wheels fall off this year with an almost 40 YO QB, yeah but I’m willing to keep letting this ride as the payout is more than worth the risk.

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