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Damien Harris 2020 Outlook


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1 hour ago, Funkenstein said:

Idk why they still have burkhead on the team. It's not like he's special in any way. Yet year after year they keep giving him opportunities 

 

Maybe that ends with him being a UFA this year. White is, too, but I have a feeling White will re-sign and eventually retire in NE. 

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Tough crowd in here. Expecting a second year back with 4 carries to his name, no offseason, no preseason, a few practices under his belt, to hit every hole and have instant chemistry with the offenive

Before Harris played: Stash him he could be a league winner! After Harris played and ran for 100 yards: I don't know, is he really worth it?  Truly befuddling. Wasn't that exactly was you wer

Think you meant bellcow but I'm always up for more cowbell too

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Harris owners should be concerned about:

Burkhead has as much of a role as Harris does in every facet of the game. You can argue that he has an even bigger role than Harris since he's catching passes and getting GL attempts.

Harris really has no chance to pad his stats in the passing game. This is critical for a guy who may not get the GL carries. This is why a guy like Montgomery is still valuable. 

The Pats ran a QB draw/sneak with Cam Newton on three consecutive plays on the GL. THREE!

Sony Michel?

Harris owners should be optimistic about:

Harris is NE's best runner.

Harris was actually in on some third down plays. Before that last drive and before Harris got hurt, White had like 2 catches for 8 yards.

He was actually open on some short routes out of the backfield but Cam totally ignored him.

He's averaging about 13 carries per game the last three weeks. Schedule is not that bad if he keeps getting this amount of work.

Burkhead is injury prone and could be out of the picture soon.

 

If he's due to miss any game because of this chest injury,  he's likely droppable, but I think that there is still too much to be optimistic about to outright drop him.

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[...] the main reasons I'm considering holding onto him past this week, provided he's not dealing with a multi-week injury:

+ Week 15 @ MIA, Week 16 vs. Buffalo

Miami's D has gotten better as the season has gone along and may pose a problem by Week 15. But MIA & BUF overall have shown to have pretty beatable run defenses. Would I trust Harris over more established players on my roster during a playoff week? Most likely not. But if injuries strike last minute, having a guy like Harris on the end of the bench who may not have a high ceiling but still in line for 10-15 touches and 7 points may still be better than chasing whatever is on the waiver by that point. His best game (16/102/1, 6.4 YPC) came against Buffalo in Week 8.

Again that could all be thrown out the window if Harris is dealing with a multi-week absence or Sony Michel comes back enough to vulture carries. On the flip side, if Rex or James White is injured, Harris could potentially see an uptick to make himself more relevant. So it's kind of like stashing a Cam Akers/Benny Snell handcuff type, hoping for an injury, while also already getting 10+ carries.

If you're fighting for dear life to get into the playoffs, he's probably worth dropping for someone who can potentially help you win ASAP. But he's a decent back of the end stash for playoff teams, provided his value doesn't immediately tank in the next week or two.

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14 minutes ago, Prezkot said:

As a team already locked into the playoffs and working toward a Week 14 bye, the main reasons I'm considering holding onto him past this week, provided he's not dealing with a multi-week injury:

+ Week 15 @ MIA, Week 16 vs. Buffalo

Miami's D has gotten better as the season has gone along and may pose a problem by Week 15. But MIA & BUF overall have shown to have pretty beatable run defenses. Would I trust Harris over more established players on my roster during a playoff week? Most likely not. But if injuries strike last minute, having a guy like Harris on the end of the bench who may not have a high ceiling but still in line for 10-15 touches and 7 points may still be better than chasing whatever is on the waiver by that point. His best game (16/102/1, 6.4 YPC) came against Buffalo in Week 8.

Again that could all be thrown out the window if Harris is dealing with a multi-week absence or Sony Michel comes back enough to vulture carries. On the flip side, if Rex or James White is injured, Harris could potentially see an uptick to make himself more relevant. So it's kind of like stashing a Cam Akers/Benny Snell handcuff type, hoping for an injury, while also already getting 10+ carries.

If you're fighting for dear life to get into the playoffs, he's probably worth dropping for someone who can potentially help you win ASAP. But he's a decent back of the end stash for playoff teams, provided his value doesn't immediately tank in the next week or two.

We were all eyeing the NYJ game as a smash spot too. I feel like that's the story with this guy on this team, the big game/break out is always going to be on the horizon but never get here

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On 11/8/2020 at 9:08 AM, yardimatt said:

@Super Joint you’ve convinced me and I’m starting him. 

Well - sorry man. I blew that call - funny thing is I thought it was going to be the opposite after his first couple of carries. They just didn't sustain it - one of the damnedest things I've seen this year and we've all seen some strange occurrences. If they'd simply stuck with him the game would have been over by halftime I still believe that.

Someone earlier said the exact thing I was thinking: the musical RB thing where everyone has one down that is considered their "role" might have worked when Brady was there. Now it's just the dumbest possible thing they could be doing with Newton back there. They are fooling NO ONE - ask James White.

 

 

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5 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

Harris owners should be concerned about:

Burkhead has as much of a role as Harris does in every facet of the game. You can argue that he has an even bigger role than Harris since he's catching passes and getting GL attempts.

Harris really has no chance to pad his stats in the passing game. This is critical for a guy who may not get the GL carries. This is why a guy like Montgomery is still valuable. 

The Pats ran a QB draw/sneak with Cam Newton on three consecutive plays on the GL. THREE!

Sony Michel?

Harris owners should be optimistic about:

Harris is NE's best runner.

Harris was actually in on some third down plays. Before that last drive and before Harris got hurt, White had like 2 catches for 8 yards.

He was actually open on some short routes out of the backfield but Cam totally ignored him.

He's averaging about 13 carries per game the last three weeks. Schedule is not that bad if he keeps getting this amount of work.

Burkhead is injury prone and could be out of the picture soon.

 

If he's due to miss any game because of this chest injury,  he's likely droppable, but I think that there is still too much to be optimistic about to outright drop him.

 

Great post. It's clear they are designing better and better plays week after week for him. I particularly like the lobs to the outside that give him plenty of open space to get chunk yardage.

I do agree that if he were to miss a game or two, he's droppable. Sony Michel will come back and Harris will have to work his way back to reps and probably start with a lesser role again when healthy. If he escapes a larger injury, I'm fairly optimistic. Burkhead was getting the 1 yard goal line plays, but Harris got a few outside runs within the 15, and with a bit more effort could have punched in a TD.

Suspect next year will be his big year. It's clear they don't want to involve him in the pass game this year, but I can't imagine he doesn't get some next year. They raved about his pass catching at training camp, and it would make the Pats offense so much less predictable, and much more lethal, if he were involved in pass catching. Alas, probably not in the cards this year.

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Are we happy owning this guy? Personally I’m considering dropping him for a high upside handcuff. When will you ever feel confident starting him week to week unless theirs an injury to either Burkhead or White? Even if one of them get injured, Sony will take their place in this three/four man rotation

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7 minutes ago, FMIII said:

Are we happy owning this guy? 

 

Nope. I was able to stash on IR, then hoped for the best, but Belicheck gonna Belicheck. Already dropped for a kicker this week in main league, holding in another deeper league through this week, but expect I'll drop him the next. Backfield crowded/Sony returning/Cam GL back/Belicheck. 

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40 minutes ago, FMIII said:

Are we happy owning this guy? Personally I’m considering dropping him for a high upside handcuff. When will you ever feel confident starting him week to week unless theirs an injury to either Burkhead or White? Even if one of them get injured, Sony will take their place in this three/four man rotation

From what I've seen there is nothing that distinguishes him at all from any other Patriot RB. Unfortunately he was doomed when Belichick drafted him. I hope for his sake he can get out of there after the end of his rookie deal because this situation is a joke. Every Patriot RB is an object of scorn and disrespect in a Belichick offense - it is what it is. Ask Michel, another promising RB whose career has been derailed by being drafted by NE.

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6 hours ago, FMIII said:

Are we happy owning this guy? Personally I’m considering dropping him for a high upside handcuff. When will you ever feel confident starting him week to week unless theirs an injury to either Burkhead or White? Even if one of them get injured, Sony will take their place in this three/four man rotation

I dropped last week after the NYJ game. Honestly if I was going to stash a NE running back I might go Burkhead but I want no part of this backfield. I see other stashes in my league with much better chances of ever being a big difference maker to my team

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Bill has used a horse before, but this year definitely went with witchcraft. I believe because with no Brady and scam as his qb he's felt he's had to hold with trickery. No fault to Harris, to say he isn't better than every other running back on the roster is a lie.

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One of my biggest issues with him is lack of passing work. In standard I suppose he’s not as unappealing but in any kind of PPR I hate him, between the lack of passing work, splitting touches with 2 other backs, losing so much GL work to Burkhead...

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3 minutes ago, owenmills said:

One of my biggest issues with him is lack of passing work. In standard I suppose he’s not as unappealing but in any kind of PPR I hate him, between the lack of passing work, splitting touches with 2 other backs, losing so much GL work to Burkhead...

I hate burkhead too.. infuriating last week.. harris was a td away from rb2.. ran a toss with him at the 10 gets them to the 2ish.. insert burkhead for the short yard score... maddening... now probably run it down the ravens throat to prove they can...and harris will be on benches or wires.

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9 hours ago, FMIII said:

Are we happy owning this guy? Personally I’m considering dropping him for a high upside handcuff. When will you ever feel confident starting him week to week unless theirs an injury to either Burkhead or White? Even if one of them get injured, Sony will take their place in this three/four man rotation

 

It depends on your situation. In a dynasty or keeper league of 12 or more teams, I'd definitely hold on. In a league with deep benches, I'd definitely hold because every handcuff with any upside is already owned. In a redraft with shallow benches...sure, drop him. 

For those in dynasties or keepers, there is reason for optimism as soon as next year. Harris was deemed the superior back in TC and by all accounts was going to be the starter until he hurt his hand. So there's that. And frankly, going by the eye test, Harris is definitively the best RB on the Pats' roster. Also, Burkhead and White are UFAs at the end of this season, so that will be something to monitor. Thirdly, Belichick has used a primary ball-carrier many seasons, despite the narrative in these forums that tell a different story. Finally, It's doubtful that Cam will be the QB in NE next year, vulturing TDs from RBs inside the 5. 

[...] I believe we may see his emergence in 2021. If you're in a redraft, I can understand the frustration and desire to move on to an upside handcuff if there is one available. But, I don't know that I'd drop him to grab a handcuff to someone else's RB...I'd want it to be a cuff to one of my own high-value RBs. 

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1 hour ago, zorndogs said:

but if against odds he has a good game today, he could gain a carved out role as the top back even when Sony returns. I think that's unlikely though.

This is what I have been saying every week and suddenly Sony is returning soon to add to the mess. Now that we’re pretty much past Byes and if you have good RB depth, when would it ever come down to starting him? I’m at the point I’d rather add another handcuff where the RB1 is not in a committee and hold for that opportunity instead

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What's good about this Harris situation is this is exactly how the Pats must play to win games. Steady defense, lean heavily on the running game, out strategize the other team and use Cam as just a game manager. He keeps running like this the TD's will come.

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2 minutes ago, Chippa said:

If cam’s there next year I have to avoid pats rb’s. You need to score touchdowns


With how bad he’s looked as a passer, I’d be stunned if Belichick brought him back. That said, it will be frustrating to own Harris next year if they do. 

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5 minutes ago, Chippa said:

If cam’s there next year I have to avoid pats rb’s. You need to score touchdowns

If Harris can consistently get 60-100 yards that still has value for zero RB or late RB drafters.  Maybe his perceived value will be low due to lack of TDs.

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