mocha4313

2020 Bold Predictions

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2 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

Rodgers won a bunch of close games. The Packers overperformed and will regress to the mean. Also, when the Packers lose, Rodgers should be labeled a choker. What??

I am not particularly impressed by the refs handing a win over the Lions with Stafford, a 23-20 win over the David Blough Lions, a 10-3 win over Mitch Trubisky, a 20-15 win over the Redskins or a 24-17 win by like a single yard over the Kyle Allen led Panthers. Those types of score lines tell me the Packers were an all around average or slightly above average team that pulled out close wins at an unsustainable rate. Nothing about that should be credited to Rodgers unless you also believe the 2018 Bears' and 2017 Jaguars' success in close games was the work of Mitch Trubisky and Blake Bortles. Note: I am not saying Rodgers is equal to those guys--just that he is not the reason for their close wins. Like those teams though, regression will hit the Packers like a truck next year

The choker part was less so me calling Rodgers a choker but pointing how harshly Manning and Favre were judged for their playoff losses (despite both having more SB appearances, more playoff wins and in Manning's case one more SB)--whereas Rodgers gets a factory of excuses made for his losing performances (like putting up a donut in the first half at SF in the NFC Championship this year or in Atlanta three years ago, or putting up only 1 TD before 4th quarter garbage time and getting ragdolled as a 15-1 team by the 9-7 Giants) and blame is directed exclusively to the rest of the team (coaches, WRs, running game, defense, O Line). Seen even more of this since the draft with this idea that Rodgers has never had any help, and it's flat out wrong; in fact, from those examples, I would say his supporting casts have been better than Favre's for the most part--definitely worse than Manning's though).

I would hate to play with Rodgers because it seems you can be an elite WR like Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson were or the league rushing TD leader on solid rushing and receiving efficiency like Aaron Jones and still get shat on as a nobody to preserve the narrative that his supporting casts have sucked

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4 hours ago, mocha4313 said:

I am not particularly impressed by the refs handing a win over the Lions with Stafford, a 23-20 win over the David Blough Lions, a 10-3 win over Mitch Trubisky, a 20-15 win over the Redskins or a 24-17 win by like a single yard over the Kyle Allen led Panthers. Those types of score lines tell me the Packers were an all around average or slightly above average team that pulled out close wins at an unsustainable rate. Nothing about that should be credited to Rodgers unless you also believe the 2018 Bears' and 2017 Jaguars' success in close games was the work of Mitch Trubisky and Blake Bortles. Note: I am not saying Rodgers is equal to those guys--just that he is not the reason for their close wins. Like those teams though, regression will hit the Packers like a truck next year

The choker part was less so me calling Rodgers a choker but pointing how harshly Manning and Favre were judged for their playoff losses (despite both having more SB appearances, more playoff wins and in Manning's case one more SB)--whereas Rodgers gets a factory of excuses made for his losing performances (like putting up a donut in the first half at SF in the NFC Championship this year or in Atlanta three years ago, or putting up only 1 TD before 4th quarter garbage time and getting ragdolled as a 15-1 team by the 9-7 Giants) and blame is directed exclusively to the rest of the team (coaches, WRs, running game, defense, O Line). Seen even more of this since the draft with this idea that Rodgers has never had any help, and it's flat out wrong; in fact, from those examples, I would say his supporting casts have been better than Favre's for the most part--definitely worse than Manning's though).

I would hate to play with Rodgers because it seems you can be an elite WR like Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson were or the league rushing TD leader on solid rushing and receiving efficiency like Aaron Jones and still get shat on as a nobody to preserve the narrative that his supporting casts have sucked

 

The Jaguars (-16.2% DVOA) and Bears (-26.0%) were #1 in defensive efficiency in 2017 and 2018. Those teams generally won games in spite of their QB play. On the other hand, the 2019 Packers finished 15th in defensive efficiency (-1.1%). But yeah, "nothing about that should be credited to Rodgers". The world is not fair and unless Trubisky and Bortles receive equal credit, Rodgers doesn't deserve it either. 🤦‍♂️

You claim GB's WR corps "wasn't great", which I will agree with, but you add that Rodgers "still had a top 5 wide receiver in the game". Did he? Davante Adams played only 62.9% of the snaps last year while dealing with a severe toe sprain. Maybe he's a top 5 guy on paper going into 2020, but he certainly wasn't that guy last year.

And has Aaron Jones really been "shat on as a nobody" or did you just make that up? I've literally not read anything like that anywhere. Conversely, if I recall correctly, many of the NFL experts questioned GB's AJ Dillon draft selection because they already have a talent like Aaron Jones.

So what do we have here? A Packers team that finished 13-3 with a rookie HC, an objectively average defense, a WR corps that "wasn't great", and a pretty darn good running back that played only 61.5% of the snaps.

Maybe some people in the media have given Rodgers too much credit. A good offensive line can help an offense immensely and David Bakhtiari is one of the best OTs in the game, but I think you're swinging the pendulum too far in the opposite direction to support your own narrative.

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3 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

The Jaguars (-16.2% DVOA) and Bears (-26.0%) were #1 in defensive efficiency in 2017 and 2018. Those teams generally won games in spite of their QB play. On the other hand, the 2019 Packers finished 15th in defensive efficiency (-1.1%). But yeah, "nothing about that should be credited to Rodgers". The world is not fair and unless Trubisky and Bortles receive equal credit, Rodgers doesn't deserve it either. 🤦‍♂️

You claim GB's WR corps "wasn't great", which I will agree with, but you add that Rodgers "still had a top 5 wide receiver in the game". Did he? Davante Adams played only 62.9% of the snaps last year while dealing with a severe toe sprain. Maybe he's a top 5 guy on paper going into 2020, but he certainly wasn't that guy last year.

And has Aaron Jones really been "shat on as a nobody" or did you just make that up? I've literally not read anything like that anywhere. Conversely, if I recall correctly, many of the NFL experts questioned GB's AJ Dillon draft selection because they already have a talent like Aaron Jones.

So what do we have here? A Packers team that finished 13-3 with a rookie HC, an objectively average defense, a WR corps that "wasn't great", and a pretty darn good running back that played only 61.5% of the snaps.

Maybe some people in the media have given Rodgers too much credit. A good offensive line can help an offense immensely and David Bakhtiari is one of the best OTs in the game, but I think you're swinging the pendulum too far in the opposite direction to support your own narrative.

The problem is only looking at last season.

This last decade, Rodgers has had one of the best groups of skill position players in the NFL. Guys like Lacey, Cobb, Nelson, Adams, Graham, Jones, and others have all made their way through GB. Yet all I had to listen to all post draft is how they don’t get him help because they haven’t drafted him a first round pick WR. Like give me a break...

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13 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The problem is only looking at last season.

This last decade, Rodgers has had one of the best groups of skill position players in the NFL. Guys like Lacey, Cobb, Nelson, Adams, Graham, Jones, and others have all made their way through GB. Yet all I had to listen to all post draft is how they don’t get him help because they haven’t drafted him a first round pick WR. Like give me a break...

 

True. I think it's fair to say the Packers missed a good opportunity to add a talented WR in the first round, and probably should have. I also think it's easy to look back on their past first round picks and wonder what could have been if they drafted better players. But to say Rodgers hasn't been supported over the years is BS. Having said that, I think he deserves a lot of credit for their 13 wins last year and probably deserved more from the team in this draft.

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4 hours ago, MrCantaloupe said:

 

The Jaguars (-16.2% DVOA) and Bears (-26.0%) were #1 in defensive efficiency in 2017 and 2018. Those teams generally won games in spite of their QB play. On the other hand, the 2019 Packers finished 15th in defensive efficiency (-1.1%). But yeah, "nothing about that should be credited to Rodgers". The world is not fair and unless Trubisky and Bortles receive equal credit, Rodgers doesn't deserve it either. 🤦‍♂️

You claim GB's WR corps "wasn't great", which I will agree with, but you add that Rodgers "still had a top 5 wide receiver in the game". Did he? Davante Adams played only 62.9% of the snaps last year while dealing with a severe toe sprain. Maybe he's a top 5 guy on paper going into 2020, but he certainly wasn't that guy last year.

And has Aaron Jones really been "shat on as a nobody" or did you just make that up? I've literally not read anything like that anywhere. Conversely, if I recall correctly, many of the NFL experts questioned GB's AJ Dillon draft selection because they already have a talent like Aaron Jones.

So what do we have here? A Packers team that finished 13-3 with a rookie HC, an objectively average defense, a WR corps that "wasn't great", and a pretty darn good running back that played only 61.5% of the snaps.

Maybe some people in the media have given Rodgers too much credit. A good offensive line can help an offense immensely and David Bakhtiari is one of the best OTs in the game, but I think you're swinging the pendulum too far in the opposite direction to support your own narrative.

Obviously Rodgers is better than Trubs and Bortles and was more responsible for the team's overall success. I was just pointing to the great record in close games--which is more random. A lot of those close games were actually pretty low scoring.

I actually did not know Adams played that few snaps. I was aware he missed a few games, but still seemed plenty productive when healthy.

The Aaron Jones part was more after the 49ers game when the Packers run game was squashed and the talking heads were not able to name a useful skill position player beyond Adams. And I think the pundits' issue with the Dillon pick was less about Jones as it was about not getting a WR or Dillon being considered a reach. If that pick was JK Dobbins or Jonathan Taylor I doubt there would have been many complaints. To be clear those playoff losses I listed were definitely not exclusively Rodgers' fault. They were team failures with the Packers front 7 getting run over against the Giants in 2011 or the Niners this year, coaching failures like Dom Capers putting Ladarius Gunter on Julio in 2016, but it just seems to be that every part of the team besides Rodgers gets their deserved blame--which is unusual for the standard top QBs are usually held to.

I do think the Packers should have added a WR in the first 3 rounds, but I do kind of get the Love pick. I am not as low on his as a prospect as most seem to be; but even if I was, I think if you see a guy who you think can be the answer at QB for a decade post Rodgers you go for it because there is no guarantee you will see the same type of guy next year or the year after. 

But after that though, they should definitely have gotten a WR in round 2, even if by trading up, and saved RB for round 3, or at least gotten one in round 3 instead of a bleeping fullback in Degura. It might be a missed opportunity--though I personally think the Packers overachieved last year and are bound to regress with or without a WR2--but I can certainly see how Rodgers would be miffed at how the draft went.

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On 5/15/2019 at 4:09 PM, ajs723 said:

There are not five more talented RBs in the NFL than Aaron Jones. 

So, Aaron Jones will finish as a top five RB.

 

 

 

On 5/16/2019 at 12:55 AM, Boudewijn said:

I'm not sure which of these 2 statements is funnier :)

Edit: ah, I missed that this was the bold predictions thread. Yes, that's not just bold, that's completely wingdings.

 

There still aren't five more talented backs in the NFL than Aaron Jones, so he will again be a top 5 back. Let's see if I get laughed at and called "wingdings" this time. ;)

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2 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

  

 

 

There still aren't five more talented backs in the NFL than Aaron Jones, so he will again be a top 5 back. Let's see if I get laughed at and called "wingdings" this time. ;)

I acquired him in a trade, so I hope he will be :)

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18 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

  

 

 

There still aren't five more talented backs in the NFL than Aaron Jones, so he will again be a top 5 back. Let's see if I get laughed at and called "wingdings" this time. ;)

Elliot, CMC, Barkley, Kamara, and Chubb are all EASILY more talented than Jones. Doesn’t mean they’ll all finish higher necessarily but more talented without a doubt. A few more guys as well likely but there’s 5 for you. 

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Elliot, CMC, Barkley, Kamara, and Chubb are all EASILY more talented than Jones. Doesn’t mean they’ll all finish higher necessarily but more talented without a doubt. A few more guys as well likely but there’s 5 for you. 

Don't agree on Kamara or Chubb. They are maybe as talented as Jones, but not more talented. Aaron Jones is an elite elite elite talent at RB. Injuries and limited snaps are the only thunk keeping him out of the Barkley and Elliot level. What does Chubb do better than Jones. I don't think anything.

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17 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Don't agree on Kamara or Chubb. They are maybe as talented as Jones, but not more talented. Aaron Jones is an elite elite elite talent at RB. Injuries and limited snaps are the only thunk keeping him out of the Barkley and Elliot level. What does Chubb do better than Jones. I don't think anything.

 

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One could argue Dalvin Cook & Derrick Henry as well . AJ's situation is gold , his talent ehhh ...

 

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6 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

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One could argue Dalvin Cook & Derrick Henry as well . AJ's situation is gold , his talent ehhh ...

 

Maybe Cook. I'd say those two are pretty even. Henry is a beast, but Jones has a way bigger skill set. If you want to talk about a guy benefiting from a golden situation, it's Henry. Jones plays 60% of the snaps. His situation is dogshit. If he were on a team that wasn't addicted to RBBC and he got 85% of the snaps, it would be CMC, Barkley, Elliott, and Aaron Jones as the consensus top 4. 

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9 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

If you want to talk about a guy benefiting from a golden situation, it's Henry.

tenor.gif

I'd say that Henry was in a meh situation, and managed to snap out of it by applying maximum power. As critical as I've been of Henry in the past, he is where is now purely through his own doing. No benefit, no freebies given, all hard work.

12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Jones plays 60% of the snaps.

This is much more relevant. This is coaches choice, and Jones did amazing last season despite that. And we should add that Jones also did that through hard work, including some excellent pass pro.

Look, in the end "talent" is a really funny thing and almost entirely useless in fantasy (or even in real life), but I think you're going to have a hard time arguing that Aaron Jones is "consensus" top 4 talent ahead of Kamara. That consensus just isn't there.

In the end, I don't care. Hard work beats talent if the talent doesn't work hard, and I need Aaron Jones to work hard in 2020, regardless of talent :)

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5 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Maybe Cook. I'd say those two are pretty even. Henry is a beast, but Jones has a way bigger skill set. If you want to talk about a guy benefiting from a golden situation, it's Henry. Jones plays 60% of the snaps. His situation is dogshit. If he were on a team that wasn't addicted to RBBC and he got 85% of the snaps, it would be CMC, Barkley, Elliott, and Aaron Jones as the consensus top 4. 


That’s definitely true, Jones is a 3 down back while Henry isn’t. But Derrick is without a doubt the better rusher. The way I see it Aaron Rodgers & the Packers offense elevate AJ to elite status, not the other way around. I’m no NFL scout, this is just my personal opinion off game tape. Trying to put stats aside & only evaluate the talent. Which is extremely difficult because those two variables interconnect at every angle. 

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59 minutes ago, RunCMC said:


That’s definitely true, Jones is a 3 down back while Henry isn’t. But Derrick is without a doubt the better rusher. The way I see it Aaron Rodgers & the Packers offense elevate AJ to elite status, not the other way around. I’m no NFL scout, this is just my personal opinion off game tape. Trying to put stats aside & only evaluate the talent. Which is extremely difficult because those two variables interconnect at every angle. 

Why? What does Henry do better than Jones, other than getting more carries? Henry is just a beast, right. Well yes, he was 3rd in the league in broken tackles. But you know who was 1st? Aaron Jones. Oh, and on 70 fewer carries. 

Jones has Kamara's burst and agility and Henry's strength and vision. Neither are better talents. 

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

  

 

 

There still aren't five more talented backs in the NFL than Aaron Jones, so he will again be a top 5 back. Let's see if I get laughed at and called "wingdings" this time. ;)

Aaron Jones had the perfect combination of a run heavy coach and a team that always seemed to get tackled deep in the red zone. He had ten TDs from within 5 yards and that is an amazing situation. I don’t care if he splits carries with Williams when they’re 80 yards away from the end zone as those aren’t carries that have all that much value, FF is all about value and one carry at the 1 has more value than a whole drive that doesn’t get to the redzone. Jones is an above average talent in an amazing situation, RBs who I would say are more talented are, in no particular order:

Mixon, Hunt, Chubb, Dobbins, Henry, JT, Ekeler, Cook, Swift, Zeke, Barkley, Kamara, C-Mac, CEH, and Gurley

This list are players who I would have ranked higher than Jones if they played in GB. That doesn’t mean I will take all these players over Jones this season.

I would put him slightly above Drake, Akers and Fournette

As of now I would put him equal to Jacobs.

So in conclusion, I view him as a middling talent with an amazing situation and is bound to regress from 19 TDs which will be a huge hit to his fantasy value. This situation is pretty similar to Mack/JT, if GB was happy and planned on keeping Jones long term they wouldn’t have used a 2nd round pick on a RB. Typically, NFL GMs are right more often than fans give them credit for.

 

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I entered this thread just now looking for some BOLD predictions.  Instead, it's Packer Talk, with Matt & Jeb (not their real names).

Here is a bold one for you:

Green Bay gets a wildcard with a successful 10-6 season, but all three of Jones, Wiliams and Dillon get significant carries.  Anyone who drafts Aaron Jones hoping for a repeat of his gonzo 2019 will be quite disappointed.

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0.5 ppr

- With a beat up group of RBs, Seahawks throw more and DK Metcalf finishes as a top 10 WR.

- Denzel Mims easily beats out Breshad Perriman for the #1 role and finishes as the top rookie WR. 

- OC Kellen Moore and Dak Prescott continue to develop together, and with the addition of CeeDee Lamb, Dak dominates another season and finishes as the overall QB1. 

- Guice finally remains healthy and behind a stout Redskins defense, finishes as a top 10 RB. 

- Devonta Freeman signs with the Eagles just before the season starts. Miles Sanders is placed in a RBBC and finishes outside the top 15 RBs.

- Tyrod Taylor struggles and does not dump off to his RBs anywhere near as much as Phillip Rivers. Chargers take a RBBC approach and Austin Ekeler also finishes outside the top 15 RBs. 

- Stefon Diggs helps elevate Josh Allen to a top 5 QB but actually struggles to become to the WR1. John Brown and Allen's chemistry leads Brown to a 1200/7 finish. 

- With a huge vacuum of targets, Brandin Cooks remains healthy and has his best year yet, posting 1250/8

 

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Why? What does Henry do better than Jones, other than getting more carries? Henry is just a beast, right. Well yes, he was 3rd in the league in broken tackles. But you know who was 1st? Aaron Jones. Oh, and on 70 fewer carries. 

Jones has Kamara's burst and agility and Henry's strength and vision. Neither are better talents. 

 

He had 3 more broken tackles on rush attempts than Henry, big deal ....  AJ had 32 and Henry had 29.

 

Stacked boxes  

Derick Henry - 35.31%

Aaron Jones- 20.76%

YPC (not the best metric)

Henry - 5.1

Jones - 4.6

Plays of 20+

Henry - 9

Jones - 5

Yards After Contact: per Rush (great stat)

Henry - 3.2

Jones - 2.2  (pro football reference)   2.6 (Rotowire)     Not sure which is the correct figure , so I listed both just incase

Average Yards After Catch

Henry - 14

Jones - 9.3

 

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12 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

He had 3 more broken tackles on rush attempts than Henry, big deal ....  AJ had 32 and Henry had 29.

 

Stacked boxes  

Derick Henry - 35.31%

Aaron Jones- 20.76%

YPC (not the best metric)

Henry - 5.1

Jones - 4.6

Plays of 20+

Henry - 9

Jones - 5

Yards After Contact: per Rush (great stat)

Henry - 3.2

Jones - 2.2  (pro football reference)   2.6 (Rotowire)     Not sure which is the correct figure , so I listed both just incase

Average Yards After Catch

Henry - 14

Jones - 9.3

 

3 more broken tackles on 70 fewer carries is noteworthy to me. YPC has little weight because it can be skewed by one guy having a handful of outlier long runs or another guy having a bunch of short TD plunges. I feel like the exact same thing is true of those other metrics.

 

We talk about obvious TD regression for Jones, but big play regression for Henry is just as likely. He's not exactly a blazing speed home run hitter, so those plays are pretty fluky. Take away 7 or 8 one yard plunges from Jones, and take away two or 3 75 yard plays from Henry, and boom, their per play metrics are even, at least. 

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

3 more broken tackles on 70 fewer carries is noteworthy to me. YPC has little weight because it can be skewed by one guy having a handful of outlier long runs or another guy having a bunch of short TD plunges. I feel like the exact same thing is true of those other metrics.

 

We talk about obvious TD regression for Jones, but big play regression for Henry is just as likely. He's not exactly a blazing speed home run hitter, so those plays are pretty fluky. Take away 7 or 8 one yard plunges from Jones, and take away two or 3 75 yard plays from Henry, and boom, their per play metrics are even, at least. 

 

You make a good point there , I'll give you that. But can we agree that Henry had a much tougher time gaining those yards as opposed to Jones, all the while facing more defenders on the line. The very definition of a power runner , the yards after contact is a huge difference between the two. 

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3 hours ago, Ddam2013 said:

Aaron Jones had the perfect combination of a run heavy coach and a team that always seemed to get tackled deep in the red zone. He had ten TDs from within 5 yards and that is an amazing situation. I don’t care if he splits carries with Williams when they’re 80 yards away from the end zone as those aren’t carries that have all that much value, FF is all about value and one carry at the 1 has more value than a whole drive that doesn’t get to the redzone. Jones is an above average talent in an amazing situation, RBs who I would say are more talented are, in no particular order:

Mixon, Hunt, Chubb, Dobbins, Henry, JT, Ekeler, Cook, Swift, Zeke, Barkley, Kamara, C-Mac, CEH, and Gurley

This list are players who I would have ranked higher than Jones if they played in GB. That doesn’t mean I will take all these players over Jones this season.

I would put him slightly above Drake, Akers and Fournette

As of now I would put him equal to Jacobs.

So in conclusion, I view him as a middling talent with an amazing situation and is bound to regress from 19 TDs which will be a huge hit to his fantasy value. This situation is pretty similar to Mack/JT, if GB was happy and planned on keeping Jones long term they wouldn’t have used a 2nd round pick on a RB. Typically, NFL GMs are right more often than fans give them credit for.

 

Gonna move on because we've derailed this thread enough, but ooh, I can't wait to quote this one in like 6 months.

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3 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

You make a good point there , I'll give you that. But can we agree that Henry had a much tougher time gaining those yards as opposed to Jones, all the while facing more defenders on the line. The very definition of a power runner , the yards after contact is a huge difference between the two. 

Yeah, my bad. I meant to say that was a solid notch for Henry. Henry is definitely an elite back. Not disputing that. My bold claim is that Aaron Jones is also an elite back. In fact, he's the one elite back in the NFL who isn't widely considered an elite back. But I digress... back to the boldness. 

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12 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Don't agree on Kamara or Chubb. They are maybe as talented as Jones, but not more talented. Aaron Jones is an elite elite elite talent at RB. Injuries and limited snaps are the only thunk keeping him out of the Barkley and Elliot level. What does Chubb do better than Jones. I don't think anything.

I can’t imagine how delusional you’d have to be to think Jones is more talented than Kamara.

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39 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

I can’t imagine how delusional you’d have to be to think Jones is more talented than Kamara.

Equal talents. Both are great backs. 

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6 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Equal talents. Both are great backs. 

Ok still delusional 

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