edbuzz

What is your auction strategy for this MLB shortened season?

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I've got to be honest. I'm not feeling this shortened season at all. 

 

While I'll "take what I can get" I just don't have the desire to study stats for my upcoming auctions. 

 

Reading about a different player opting out for this season on a daily basis is discouraging. 

 

I'm curious to know others strategies for an auction for this 60 game season. 

 

Normally I like to go studs and duds. I usually come out of the auction with 2 stud pitchers at $40+ and 2 stud hitters at $40+ which usually includes stolen bases.

 

My league goes 18 teams with 13 active hitters/9 pitchers with 5 reserves for a total of 27 players for $260

 

I'm thinking of spreading it out this season and grabbing a bunch of $8-$15 players in the event a stud goes down and thus end my season. 

 

I see a lot of people posting are "All Time Greats" so I'm hoping some of you have some sound advice on possible players that might go for $5 or less

 

I saw a pitching thread on this forum for who is this years "Lucas Giolito" and liked many of the suggestions.

 

I'd like a combination of hitters and pitcher suggestions if any of you are willing to share them. 

 

I hope some of you are generous and share your sleepers and deep sleepers. 

 

Thanks,

 

Ed Kelly

 

BUZZ'S FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE 

 

(I put that up on the board so you know who I am and which league I commish as I post under the finder service regularly)

 

 

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I'm still finalizing myne with the schedule released yesterday. Quick winner for pitchers are in the central and Dodgers pitchers based on strength of schedule.

For hitters I like Hosmer late, San Diego gets 7 in Coors and he has 3 hr, 19 rbi and 15 runs in 20 career games, also in the first spring training although the sample was small he was hitting the ball in the air so a possible swing/launch angle change.

San Francisco gets 6 in Coors, Longoria has 6 HR, 18 rbi and 14 runs in 18 games also just last year away from SF he was .279, 14, 42, 38 in 61 games so he should provide some nice value to a 18 team league. Belt is good at coors also .312, 10, 31, 38 in 63 games.

Guys I like from either the NL DH, opting out or covid are Ender Inciarte, Thames, Kendrick, Castro, Kieboom, Braun, Avi Garcia, AJ Pollock and probably Grisham, Cordero, Myers.

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I'm not in an auction league, but if I was, I would take the opportunity to try something different this year as you're less invested mentally anyway. Try spreading things out a little bit.  One injury or major COVID case or opt out can sink your team so it's probably a good strategy to not over-invest in anyone in particular and mitigate that risk across a deeper more balanced team.  As always, but now more than ever, I would stay away from the Stanton and Paxton types with injury histories and stick to stable guys who are less flashy but come at a deep discount because they are not big name guys or are into their 30's now and lose the luster of the young stars.  Many of these guys only have so much time left in their careers so they're more invested in making every AB and IP count until it's over for them.  

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Posted (edited)

In my auction keeper run on CBS Commissioner, I decided to basically bypass the whole auction\contracts this year.  For 2020, going to turn it into a straight keep your best 8 keeper and then do an online draft of the remaining players.  After the season, we are going to revert everything to 2019 rosters, salaries and contracts and pick it up from there for 2021 so as to not have to worry about contracts in shortened seasons and any built in price increases under our rules, etc.  Any player drafted or picked up in 2020 is not eligible to be kept and you get back your rosters for 2019 and start again for 2021 so someone like Blackmon or Freeman can be let go for 2020 and is still eligible to be kept for 2021 irrespective of what fantasy team he is on for 2020.  Basically it becomes a redraft after you pick your 8 keepers for 2020, you play out the short season and then reset back to 2019 as if 2020 never happened.  Best I could think of to not mess up everything long term and still keep the league going for 2020 since it was free under CBS at this point.

Edited by secretagentman

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4 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

I'm not in an auction league, but if I was, I would take the opportunity to try something different this year as you're less invested mentally anyway. Try spreading things out a little bit.  One injury or major COVID case or opt out can sink your team so it's probably a good strategy to not over-invest in anyone in particular and mitigate that risk across a deeper more balanced team.  As always, but now more than ever, I would stay away from the Stanton and Paxton types with injury histories and stick to stable guys who are less flashy but come at a deep discount because they are not big name guys or are into their 30's now and lose the luster of the young stars.  Many of these guys only have so much time left in their careers so they're more invested in making every AB and IP count until it's over for them.  

Great advice, specifically with the older players losing their shine. I was already planning on spreading it out but the Warren Buffett theory of "there's still a few more puffs off of that cigar" might work really well this season with some older players on the cheap. And I liked some of the players you named from the NL DH list. That's going to help me

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5 hours ago, turner46 said:

I'm still finalizing myne with the schedule released yesterday. Quick winner for pitchers are in the central and Dodgers pitchers based on strength of schedule.

For hitters I like Hosmer late, San Diego gets 7 in Coors and he has 3 hr, 19 rbi and 15 runs in 20 career games, also in the first spring training although the sample was small he was hitting the ball in the air so a possible swing/launch angle change.

San Francisco gets 6 in Coors, Longoria has 6 HR, 18 rbi and 14 runs in 18 games also just last year away from SF he was .279, 14, 42, 38 in 61 games so he should provide some nice value to a 18 team league. Belt is good at coors also .312, 10, 31, 38 in 63 games.

Guys I like from either the NL DH, opting out or covid are Ender Inciarte, Thames, Kendrick, Castro, Kieboom, Braun, Avi Garcia, AJ Pollock and probably Grisham, Cordero, Myers.

You were the one with the list. My apologies. Thank you for the list of NL DH's. That's going to be useful and the Colorado stats is keen insight. Kind of glad you're not in my leagues. LOLLLL

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I personally would still roll with a stars and scrubs strategy. Just do a little advance research on who seems most committed to not opting out.
 

I find it really hard to intentionally end up with my budget spread around evenly on a bunch of mid tier players and still be competitive.  I usually get my mid tier guys unintentionally just from price enforcing.
 

Aggressive in season management is going to matter more than auction strategy this year.

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Posted (edited)

I disagree .. I’m going stars and scrubs and my “scrubs” are going to be young unproven players.  Just going to read here on the opt out thread for any inkling that a star may not play ( looks like another year I can not get Trout).  
 

a short season favours the youngsters.  Remember Austin Riley when he first came up or Michael Chavis etc? Also feel like you get players are less likely to opt out during the season.

 

It takes time to figure people out. But time is something in a short supply this year.

Edited by KingJoffrey
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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, secretagentman said:

In my auction keeper run on CBS Commissioner, I decided to basically bypass the whole auction\contracts this year.  For 2020, going to turn it into a straight keep your best 8 keeper and then do an online draft of the remaining players.  After the season, we are going to revert everything to 2019 rosters, salaries and contracts and pick it up from there for 2021 so as to not have to worry about contracts in shortened seasons and any built in price increases under our rules, etc.  Any player drafted or picked up in 2020 is not eligible to be kept and you get back your rosters for 2019 and start again for 2021 so someone like Blackmon or Freeman can be let go for 2020 and is still eligible to be kept for 2021 irrespective of what fantasy team he is on for 2020.  Basically it becomes a redraft after you pick your 8 keepers for 2020, you play out the short season and then reset back to 2019 as if 2020 never happened.  Best I could think of to not mess up everything long term and still keep the league going for 2020 since it was free under CBS at this point.

This is pretty much what my keeper league is doing as well, it makes sense

 

7 hours ago, turner46 said:

 

San Francisco gets 6 in Coors, Longoria has 6 HR, 18 rbi and 14 runs in 18 games also just last year away from SF he was .279, 14, 42, 38 in 61 games so he should provide some nice value to a 18 team league. Belt is good at coors also .312, 10, 31, 38 in 63 games.

Guys I like from either the NL DH, opting out or covid are Ender Inciarte, Thames, Kendrick, Castro, Kieboom, Braun, Avi Garcia, AJ Pollock and probably Grisham, Cordero, Myers.

Really likes these touts, I had Kingery, Freeman, S Perez, M Sano, Gallo all on IL...Picked up a couple of these guys (Kendrick, Braun, Pollock, Cordero just in case 

Edited by hockeyfan77
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57 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

This is pretty much what my keeper league is doing as well, it makes sense

 

Really likes these touts, I had Kingery, Freeman, S Perez, M Sano, Gallo all on IL...Picked up a couple of these guys (Kendrick, Braun, Pollock, Cordero just in case 

Oh man, is Chad Cordero still their closer? 😳

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Great year to go light in starters with six man rotations, tandem setups and a higher percentage of the season comprised of early season pitch counts.

 

My guess is SB are the sneaky beneficiary—I think they will be down and the guys who still get bags will be more valuable than usual (which means not overvalued as usual!)

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11 minutes ago, Whizzinator said:

Great year to go light in starters with six man rotations, tandem setups and a higher percentage of the season comprised of early season pitch counts.

 

My guess is SB are the sneaky beneficiary—I think they will be down and the guys who still get bags will be more valuable than usual (which means not overvalued as usual!)

 

And the non base stealers will likely not run and chip in with the odd bag. I believe it was reliever Joe Kelly who said stolen bases will be down because they can hear now.

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4 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I disagree .. I’m going stars and scrubs and my “scrubs” are going to be young unproven players.  Just going to read here on the opt out thread for any inkling that a star may not play ( looks like another year I can not get Trout).  
 

a short season favours the youngsters.  Remember Austin Riley when he first came up or Michael Chavis etc? Also feel like you get players are less likely to opt out during the season.

 

It takes time to figure people out. But time is something in a short supply this year.

I really like the about the younger players who haven't been "paid" yet most likely to play and not opt out. Good point.  I normally like to go "Studs and Duds" but I don't have the luxury of getting lucky every week with a quality pick up. I think you have to have a full lineup from opening day with no question marks with at bats or innings pitched. Normally I like to roster minor leaguers who haven't been called up yet but with only 9 weeks I won't take that chance. I'd rather have a bench of lower tiered full time players who can jump in when one of my guys gets injured or the virus

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1 hour ago, turner46 said:

 

And the non base stealers will likely not run and chip in with the odd bag. I believe it was reliever Joe Kelly who said stolen bases will be down because they can hear now.

Wow that's another good point made by you Turner46. I didn't think of that. Now the pitchers can hear any rumblings down at First Base or the 1B shouting out the runner is going. I like that. So more to THE WHIZZANOTOR'S point which is the true stolen base leaders will be more valuable because the hitters that normally "chip in" will be less likely to do so. I like that advice too.

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I'm wondering if there are any players that "feed" off of noise and excitement.  It's an old baseball cliche.  I know a statistician would disagree with it.  But there may be some truth to it.

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8 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I'm wondering if there are any players that "feed" off of noise and excitement.  It's an old baseball cliche.  I know a statistician would disagree with it.  But there may be some truth to it.

Anyone who thinks that 50000 fans cheering you on does not get the adrenaline flowing has just lost touch with reality.  Whether that has a positive or negative impact depends on the player obviously as some players bear down and do better and others choke under pressure (see Arod) and are best left to hitting 3 run homers while up 5-0 in the 4th inning lol. 

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