Boudewijn

Irv Smith Jr 2020 Outlook

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"Let's do it baby!"

I loved this interaction between Cousins and Smith. Actually I also came away pretty impressed with Cousins, but I was specifically looking for some info on Smith, and there's actually not a lot of analysis on him outside of various college highlights (which to my mind are nearly useless in the NFL for TEs). 

So: he had a decent but not great year; he is clearly the #2 TE behind Kyle Rudolph, but Minny runs 34% of the plays in 12 personnel (and another 11% in 13 personnel). That's mostly because the have committed to the running game, and even the 2 of them (Rudolph/Smith) still got less than 700 yds in 2019).

However, with Diggs going to Buffalo, there are 1150 yards vacated, and that means there is room for Smith to grab more. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 700/4 in 2020, with room to grow more in years to come. In dynasty I think this is an interesting option; in redraft he's probably still waiver material, but keep an eye out for the break-out.

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

"Let's do it baby!"

I loved this interaction between Cousins and Smith. Actually I also came away pretty impressed with Cousins, but I was specifically looking for some info on Smith, and there's actually not a lot of analysis on him outside of various college highlights (which to my mind are nearly useless in the NFL for TEs). 

So: he had a decent but not great year; he is clearly the #2 TE behind Kyle Rudolph, but Minny runs 34% of the plays in 12 personnel (and another 11% in 13 personnel). That's mostly because the have committed to the running game, and even the 2 of them (Rudolph/Smith) still got less than 700 yds in 2019).

However, with Diggs going to Buffalo, there are 1150 yards vacated, and that means there is room for Smith to grab more. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 700/4 in 2020, with room to grow more in years to come. In dynasty I think this is an interesting option; in redraft he's probably still waiver material, but keep an eye out for the break-out.

 

I wouldn't have sold him if Minnesota planned on using him that much.

 

Lost diggs and added Jefferson. I hope he does awesome just not betting the house on it.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I wouldn't have sold him if Minnesota planned on using him that much.

 

Lost diggs and added Jefferson. I hope he does awesome just not betting the house on it.

Oh, I understand why you sold him, we're playing Dynasty, not Charity. I just think there's a decent enough chance he exceeds expectations or I wouldn't have taken the deal ;)

In any case, if he makes it, I will sell him back to you for your All-a-Bama team ;)

Edited by Boudewijn
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Love this guy in dynasty, but not too much in re-draft with Rudolph still there.  Rudolph is signed through 2023, but the Vikings can cut him next season and save $5mm.  As you said the Vikings run 12 personnel the second highest rate in the league, so Rudolph might even be in the way for a few more years.  Whenever Rudolph leaves, I'll be all over Smith as a break out but we might not get that for a few years.  Similar to Johnnu Smith and Delanie Walker.  

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Good talent but guys with his build never last at the TE position, they are either constantly banged up or dealing with a significant injury. re: Jordan Reed & Evan Engram

Sell him in dynasty when Rudolph leaves and his value peaks.

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Posted (edited)

Could eventually take over as the Minny starting TE with Rudolph being injury prone. 

Edited by Rush2112

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13 hours ago, Rush2112 said:

Could eventually take over as the Minny starting TE with Rudolph being injury prone. 

               GMs                    
                             
2019 MIN 16                        
2018 MIN 16                        
2017 MIN 16                        
2016 MIN 16                        
2015 MIN 16                        
2014 MIN 9                        
2013 MIN 8                        
2012 MIN 16
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Posted (edited)

For all those people still sleeping on Irv...

 

Edited by Jwook
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On 7/9/2020 at 2:30 PM, paulwall29 said:

Good talent but guys with his build never last at the TE position, they are either constantly banged up or dealing with a significant injury. re: Jordan Reed & Evan Engram

Sell him in dynasty when Rudolph leaves and his value peaks.


Interesting point, those guys are always hurt. Just looking at Delanie Walker who is a similar size and he missed a lot of games in his first few years too. If they didn’t add Jefferson then I might be all over Smith but I don’t see a ton of upside, Kyle Rudolph is still fairly decent too.

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26 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:


Interesting point, those guys are always hurt. Just looking at Delanie Walker who is a similar size and he missed a lot of games in his first few years too. If they didn’t add Jefferson then I might be all over Smith but I don’t see a ton of upside, Kyle Rudolph is still fairly decent too.

I will be keeping an eye on Smith who is on my waiver wire but I don't see him as someone to rush out and get right now unless you have the bench space because Rudolph is still there.

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Rudolph is a big target to throw to. But he is nowhere near as shifty or fluid as Irv Smith in route running.  I expect Smith will get a lot of downfield opportunities. And the Vikings will run a lot of two tight end formations. So Irv will get a lot of time on the field.

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Really want to pick this kid up but not sure who to drop. Might just drop the kicker and see what type of usage he gets

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Welp, barring a miracle this year is a wash, anyone still holding in dynasty?

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22 minutes ago, 9amest said:

Welp, barring a miracle this year is a wash, anyone still holding in dynasty?

 

If I had him anywhere I'd hold him but he's borderline at this point.  Not a high-octane passing offense and he still isn't the #1 TE there.  Tough situation.

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Finally did something last week. Faces ATL this week. Decent one week TE stream?

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55 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Finally did something last week. Faces ATL this week. Decent one week TE stream?

Only if they play this week. 

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Does anyone think his usage last week is a indication of things to come? Or, more of just a result of game script?

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55 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

If you add him make sure to cuff with Ito Smith. 

🧐

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26 minutes ago, The G Man said:

Does anyone think his usage last week is a indication of things to come? Or, more of just a result of game script?

Can I wait until Sunday Night to answer?

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3 hours ago, The G Man said:

Does anyone think his usage last week is a indication of things to come? Or, more of just a result of game script?

I added Smith as bench depth in my 16 teamer.  It's hard to get excited because he isn't even the clear #1 TE on his own team but I think he's worth streaming this week if they play.

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High draft capital and more opportunity against the worst team against TEs. Definitely worth a stash. I'm personally going to start him over Hurst this week

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43 minutes ago, TonyRomo said:

High draft capital and more opportunity against the worst team against TEs. Definitely worth a stash. I'm personally going to start him over Hurst this week

Im doing the same thinf actually! Would rather play this guy then Hurst who gets open but doesnt get the receptions 

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I don’t know. Yahoo Fearless Forcasted him 21.5 points. 
 

Everyone playing against him is in trouble! 

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