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Corbin Burnes 2020 Outlook


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Legitimately a terrible strategy. Why would you avoid a guy that will be elite in all categories except for the one that is predominantly linked with luck? Wins are not even on my radar when I look fo

LOL, theer is only 60 days to the season.  If you own someone you basically play them this year or you drop them.

I adore this animal.

Great post. His slider is awesome. Like Francisco Liriano in mid 2000s awesome. It could very well be the best one in all of MLB. Yes, better than Patrick Corbin’s. Possibly better than a healthy Sale.

 

Lottery tickets like him are what make fantasy baseball so fun if you know what to look for. Keep an eye on him boys.

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Burnes made four starts last season but took the ball 28 times out of the bullpen. A full-time starter as recent at the 2017 season, he made just 13 starts in 2018 as he was transitioned into more of a bullpen role, a trend that continued last season in Milwaukee, though he did make seven starts during his eight minor league appearances last season. In 49 innings last season, Burnes punched out 70 fools leading to a 12.86 K/9 and absurdly strong 17.2 percent swinging strike rate (his career mark is now 16.4 percent). He struggled to limit the free pass last year, he walked 3.67 per nine, but given his overall stuff, and his 61.3 percent first pitch strike rate, his BABIP .414 is patently absurd. The mark should drop .100 points. Burnes also posted a 38.6 percent HR/FB ratio last season, another absurd mark. I mean, come on, that’s just sick stuff. He can dominate any opponent. -- Ray Flowers 

 

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40 minutes ago, Baseball Jonze said:

I don't understand why Lindblom was handed a rotation spot.  KBL isn't the MLB and he's flamed out in the MLB every chance he had in the past. 

I think he's looked pretty good so far as well. Brewers could have a sneaky rotation, and be a tough out in the playoffs. 

 

What was his line from last night? Or where to find intersquad box scores more importantly. 

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So I knew he was highly touted a short time ago and he didnt burn me last year so I don't really have an opinion of him one way or another...but this spring he has been as lights out as one could be and I took a flier...did I stumble upon pitching gold?

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38 minutes ago, dfstout said:

So I knew he was highly touted a short time ago and he didnt burn me last year so I don't really have an opinion of him one way or another...but this spring he has been as lights out as one could be and I took a flier...did I stumble upon pitching gold?

We get to find out. That's all I was hoping for. That he got a chance.

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13 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

doesn't he have a very hittable fastball?  

Yep, at least last year it most certainly was. -17 pVAL and .520 wOBA on it (yeesh)...it sat nearly 96 (and has reportedly ticked up this year) also had some great late dart action to it, there is reasons to believe he can get it back to a much better offering. I charted him early last year and even caught 2 of his starts in person, it was always a tale of 2 different guys. Early in the game he'd come out with confidence and look nearly un-hittable--easy gas, good sequencing, elite level slider and a plus curve that he mixed in. Then he'd lose it for a a few guys and nibble too much, walk a guy, give up some awfully weak contact that found holes and boom groove one to get ahead and he was toast. The crude ingredients are more than present for a good to very good major league pitcher though imo. I'd would be watching closely with him, and in deeper formats add just to see if he is ready to leap forward.

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4 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yep, at least last year it most certainly was. -17 pVAL and .520 wOBA on it (yeesh)...it sat nearly 96 (and has reportedly ticked up this year) also had some great late dart action to it, there is reasons to believe he can get it back to a much better offering. I charted him early last year and even caught 2 of his starts in person, it was always a tale of 2 different guys. Early in the game he'd come out with confidence and look nearly un-hittable--easy gas, good sequencing, elite level slider and a plus curve that he mixed in. Then he'd lose it for a a few guys and nibble too much, walk a guy, give up some awfully weak contact that found holes and boom groove one to get ahead and he was toast. The crude ingredients are more than present for a good to very good major league pitcher though imo. I'd would be watching closely with him, and in deeper formats add just to see if he is ready to leap forward.


Yep. Good velo and actually good spin rate. Just needs to maximize efficiency of spin rate. Maybe even elevate the fastball too

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58 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

doesn't he have a very hittable fastball?  

He does, or at least he did last year. The pitch had an elite level spin rate which you would think would lead to a high number of whiffs if he threw it up in the zone. But that just didn't happen and the likely reason was that it had poor spin efficiency. If he were to optimize the pitch's spin (by simply tilting the pitch's spin axis) so that it had more ride up in the zone or horizontal movement, the pitch could be really, really good. Which when paired with his otherworldly slider would give him a downright filthy arsenal.

Sure I'm speculating that he's made the necessary adjustments, but I've heard whisperings that his fastball has had really good life recently which just wasn't the case last year. I've also heard that he "worked on his mechanics" a lot in the Brewers' pitching lab this off-season, and also had Lasik surgery to correct his vision issues, which are both pretty encouraging signs in my eyes. And the numbers he's put up in Spring Training 1.0 and Summer Camp speak for themselves.

He's coming at the measly cost of a last round pick, so it's not like you're really sacrificing much by taking a shot on him. He's exactly the kind of dart throw you should be looking for at the end of the draft because the payoff here could be enormous.

Edited by SnellMyFinger
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57 minutes ago, einstein2u said:

doesn't he have a very hittable fastball?  

From what I've read, he had issues with his fastball last year. Worked on the science behind spin rate and has been sitting dudes down with it in Summer Camp. Went from a ball that got rocked to a strikeout pitch that can touch 99-100.

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36 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yep, at least last year it most certainly was. -17 pVAL and .520 wOBA on it (yeesh)...it sat nearly 96 (and has reportedly ticked up this year) also had some great late dart action to it, there is reasons to believe he can get it back to a much better offering. I charted him early last year and even caught 2 of his starts in person, it was always a tale of 2 different guys. Early in the game he'd come out with confidence and look nearly un-hittable--easy gas, good sequencing, elite level slider and a plus curve that he mixed in. Then he'd lose it for a a few guys and nibble too much, walk a guy, give up some awfully weak contact that found holes and boom groove one to get ahead and he was toast. The crude ingredients are more than present for a good to very good major league pitcher though imo. I'd would be watching closely with him, and in deeper formats add just to see if he is ready to leap forward.

Very nice summary. Thanks for doing the work I was too lazy to in my last comment. 🙂

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