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Corbin Burnes 2020 Outlook

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With all the craziness surrounding this season, with little to no ramp up for pitchers across the league and all the stamina issues that creates, along with, of course, the injuries; further compounded by the start and stop schedules we’re seeing for entire ball clubs and that we’ll likely continue to see due to COVID, creating crammed in make-up games on short notice by the half dozens....for guys especially of Burnes’ ilk, we’re just going to have to strap ourselves in and prepare for a wild ride.

From scheduled starts where he’s firing on all cylinders, striking out 10 over 6 innings of 1 hit ball; to scheduled starts where he doesn’t have his command, sees his pitch count pile up, and is removed after 4.1; to intermittent longer absences similar to last night where Burnsy needs to get work in and gets thrown in there for 3.2 middle relief innings, K’ing 6; to entering in relief after 1 or 2 spotty innings from some no-name spot-starter to finish off the the back end of a night cap of one of them 7 inning twin bills....expect to see it all, where the only thing you can count on is unpredictability.

Anticipate Corbin Burnes as being pretty much the poster boy of the 2020 MLB season; a microcosm if you will:  like a box of chocolates, you never know what you’re gonna get.

Looking forward to it. Should be fun. Interesting at the very least.

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I mean, even Counsell counseled to dispense with the notion of a “rotation” per se - all those starters and middle relievers are going to be in the mix on an ad hoc basis for the Brewers this...season.

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8 hours ago, WTP333 said:

I don’t see an updated blurb. Where do you see it? Thanks! 
 

Edit: disregard. See it now. 


And it also said he may make one more relief appearance before his next start. If that is correct, don’t want anyone to panic or get frustrated, lol. 

In a keeper league, he’s definitely worth holding onto because next year is more important that this year for most, I’m assuming. 

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So he’s a reliever now because the cardinals went to a casino? What did he do to lose his job?

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Eight walks in 12.1 innings...good thing he has 19 Ks and has only allowed six hits. But at some point, you have to think those walks are going to catch up with him if he can't get them under control. 

1 hour ago, steve9347 said:

So he’s a reliever now because the cardinals went to a casino? What did he do to lose his job?

 

Other than missing those 8 Ks today, I'm not overly concerned with it right now. I'm just glad he's sitting guys down and limiting hits. I view this as an audition for the 2021 rotation, and if he can reduce the walk rate, he's lining up to be a very popular breakout candidate next season. 

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I view this as an audition for the 2021 rotation, and if he can reduce the walk rate, he's lining up to be a very popular breakout candidate next season. 

 

I'm thinking you're right here. At this point the command & control still aren't there. He seems have improved from last year though. At some point I might drop him and keep an eye on something clicking with the mechanics later this year. I doubt it though. Hopefully the helium on him isn't too high for next year because his upside is amazing.

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2 minutes ago, UberRebel said:

 

I'm thinking you're right here. At this point the command & control still aren't there. He seems have improved from last year though. At some point I might drop him and keep an eye on something clicking with the mechanics later this year. I doubt it though. Hopefully the helium on him isn't too high for next year because his upside is amazing.

 

I'm going to hang on because the league I have him in is going to allow 20 keepers next year because of the covid season. 

But I get the feeling that things are starting to come together for him. Maybe it's fool's gold because of the walks, but it just seems like his game is improving. Tbh, I'd take 170 innings of 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP if it comes with 225 Ks, and I think he's fully capable of that over a full season. 

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4 hours ago, dundeeslugger said:

How many more long relief appearances can we expect? Is it going to be only when Anderson pitches?

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2020/08/09/improved-corbin-burnes-adapts-being-call-out-brewers-bullpen/3330843001/

https://www.mlb.com/news/corbin-burnes-strikes-out-8-in-relief

It seems like this is what we can expect for the near future, but if he keeps pitching as well as he has I think they'll get him into the rotation the next time the opportunity avails itself. I'm okay with it even if he's coming in after 3 or 4 innings of Anderson or whomever because he'll get his own 4-5 innings if he's on and a great chance at a W. I'm holding and keeping him in the lineup.

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getting the start this Tuesday vs Minnesota. Anyone rolling him out there or not worth the risk versus such a potent Twins lineup??

 

Presumably a 2 start week as well

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The Twins look like a bad start on paper, and probably are, but they're 18th in the league in wRC+ with his second start possibly being the Pirates who are last in the league. 

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The Burnses numbers are hard to assess. Start, relive, in and out. Like to see Burnes get the ball every fifth day and throw gas for as long as he can be effective. It’s not coincidental that the Brewers are a mess. Making Burnes a confirmed SP will go a long way toward rectifying that mess.

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Ugh. Not the most ideal place to get back into the rotation.

That said, I think I'm going to do it. The Twins are mashers, but they're also big time home run hitters and I don't think Burnes is easy to hit home runs off of...too much movement and velocity and I haven't seen many meat balls from him this year. Furthermore, the Twins walk ~3.19 times per game and K about 9 times per game, so that's a ratio I can live with (at least as a guiding mark, not saying itll be 3-1, but I'd love that. 

What sucks is that the Brewers offense has been weak, so his chance to get a win you don't feel very good about. They did just take 3 games from my Cubs though, so they can certainly do it, especially if they hand the game to that elite pen.

Worst case, he has a bad outing and then gets a chance to mow down the lowly Pirates. More than anything, please don't walk dudes!!!!

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13 hours ago, aapox said:

Ugh. Not the most ideal place to get back into the rotation.

That said, I think I'm going to do it. The Twins are mashers, but they're also big time home run hitters and I don't think Burnes is easy to hit home runs off of...too much movement and velocity and I haven't seen many meat balls from him this year. Furthermore, the Twins walk ~3.19 times per game and K about 9 times per game, so that's a ratio I can live with (at least as a guiding mark, not saying itll be 3-1, but I'd love that. 

What sucks is that the Brewers offense has been weak, so his chance to get a win you don't feel very good about. They did just take 3 games from my Cubs though, so they can certainly do it, especially if they hand the game to that elite pen.

Worst case, he has a bad outing and then gets a chance to mow down the lowly Pirates. More than anything, please don't walk dudes!!!!

I think imma roll him out against the Twins even though its risky, but my league counts k/9 so I do expect him to rack up that area. & I'd like to emphasize that last line, "PLEASE DONT WALK DUDES!!!!" 

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For whatever reason, probably because I’m an idiot, I’m not even scuur’d about the Twins start. I have mostly blind faith (not baseless though. Those are two different things. Just blind) that Burnes’ electric arm fires on all cylinders and mow’s down the oh-so dangerous Twins bats. Hey, Bieber did it (I know, not quite the same level of command), and then again, the feeble Royals held ‘em check a couple times too. So, like I said, not totally baseless to hold out hope that Burnes throws himself a gem against the Twins....just blind is all.

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41 minutes ago, Chest-Rockwell said:

For whatever reason, probably because I’m an idiot, I’m not even scuur’d about the Twins start. I have mostly blind faith (not baseless though. Those are two different things. Just blind) that Burnes’ electric arm fires on all cylinders and mow’s down the oh-so dangerous Twins bats. Hey, Bieber did it (I know, not quite the same level of command), and then again, the feeble Royals held ‘em check a couple times too. So, like I said, not totally baseless to hold out hope that Burnes throws himself a gem against the Twins....just blind is all.

 

I love the blind, but not baseless, faith! The problem with the Twins is that if you don't show up you're not all the sudden down 5 runs, you're down 10! Let's combine our collective juju for Burnsey and give him the divine inspiration he needs to go mow em down. No Hitter, anyone?!?

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Yeah the walks are the problem - he is near 18 pitches per inning this season.  He needs more efficiency in general - perhaps a return to the 45+% GB rate (he's at 31%) would help.

It doesn't ever seem like he is pitching for a quick out.  His stuff is good and he is super effective when he has command but it seems to me that he could improve on his sequencing.  He has worked with Pina only 1 of 4 games so far.  He may still be getting used to the way Narvaez calls a game?

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I don't think he's gonna go 5. So basically you are hoping for plenty of Ks and he does not get killed.

 

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6 hours ago, EWV1 said:

Yeah the walks are the problem - he is near 18 pitches per inning this season.  He needs more efficiency in general - perhaps a return to the 45+% GB rate (he's at 31%) would help.

It doesn't ever seem like he is pitching for a quick out.  His stuff is good and he is super effective when he has command but it seems to me that he could improve on his sequencing.  He has worked with Pina only 1 of 4 games so far.  He may still be getting used to the way Narvaez calls a game?

 

This is absolutely on point.

 

I do think he'll make it 5. But we'll be lucky to get 6. 5 is a good O/U though.

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He made it 5 inns and 5 k seems like a lowball outcome. Walks (3) still an issue but with 2 hits only so he traded some hits for walks and still had a 1 whip. Good start vs a good team, it’s encouraging to see. 

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Yeah idk how much was them swinging at pitches out of the zone and how much was him having his command for a change but I’ll take it

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17 minutes ago, KrunK said:

Yeah idk how much was them swinging at pitches out of the zone and how much was him having his command for a change but I’ll take it

 

35 / 65 from what I saw. I caught maybe 50-75% of his pitches. He looked sharp. A better offense would probably spoil more pitches though, possibly leading to less IP and more walks.

Still, gotta take advantage of the nice matchups when they come, and he certainly did.

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