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Corbin Burnes 2020 Outlook

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Has he unlocked something?

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2 hours ago, B&F said:

Has he unlocked something?

 

Not really, he's just had his control the last few games. I mean, maybe he's unlocked a way to be more consistent? Would be nice. If he can harness in those walks and spot the corners more he has the stuff to be dominant.

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He’s been pitching great, ride the wave. I added him a few weeks ago. His stuff is always electric. And he’s a much better streaming option than most. 

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Safe to say.  Breakout.  Only going to get better.

 

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5 minutes ago, B&F said:

Safe to say.  Breakout.  Only going to get better.

 

He's had a pretty good run of matchups for sure.

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On 9/4/2020 at 9:31 PM, B&F said:

Has he unlocked something?

I would hate to see how good he is if he hasn't unlocked something! 

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4 minutes ago, humesmasonry said:

My gawd. Is he vaulting himself into keeper status?

What do the metrics say? 

They say his ERA is about 1.20 too low.

Edited by cdd10

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19 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

He's had a pretty good run of matchups for sure.

 

It has been a good run of matchups, but the encouraging thing to me is the walks. He gave 14 free passes in his first 21 ip this year. Over his last 24.1 ip (4 starts), he's walked only 5, and he walked no one in 7ip today, which is is longest outing of the season. In fact, his longest three outings have been his last three starts. Considering how few batters he's walked, that's no surprise. 

For Burnes, it's about the walks. Last year, it was about walks...and HRs...and hits...well, everything. But him harnessing his control has always been the key to unlocking his potential. If these last four starts are real and not just a good streak, then we may have something special on our hands. My second favorite stat of his after the reduction in walks, is the fact that entering today his FIP was just 0.03 higher than his actual ERA. 

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Youtube streamed the game for free today. He was clearly in command. Froze several guys with that cutter. DET hitters had no clue what to do. Wouldn't have mattered who was at the plate today.

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6 hours ago, humesmasonry said:

My gawd. Is he vaulting himself into keeper status?

What do the metrics say? 

Wondering the same thing. He was a FA addition so would be a great Keeper option but I'm not sure if his numbers are a mirage or not 🤔

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It's real. I think people forget this guy was a top 100 prospect and absolutely dominated the minors.

Won MILB pitcher of year in 2017. https://www.milb.com/news/corbin-burnes-named-brewers-minor-league-pitcher-of-the-year-254523190

He's always had the ingredients - he's just now finally pieced together how to use them. It's funny I never expected him to struggle with walks at the MLB because it wasn't really part of his profile until he was up at Colorado Springs in 2018 and struggled (notorious hitters park & Woodruff did the same as well). However, along with that it seems he has unlocked more K upside.

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A fascinating in-depth analysis of Burnes from Roto Baller this morning:

https://www.rotoballer.com/officially-lit-corbin-burnes-his-way-to-the-elite/777380

Their conclusion:

"I have Burnes as a top-15 pitcher for the rest of the season. If that sounds ridiculous than I'll just wait right here until you can find me 15 pitchers you'd rather have for the next four weeks. It's too late to trade for him this season, but dynasty players would be wise to make him a priority acquisition for the offseason. And looking way ahead to redraft leagues in 2021, Burnes is the type of player (with the type of stuff) to attract a lot of hype, with his draft price in winter 2020 likely to be much lower than it'll be in Spring 2021."

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10th in SIERRA, 11th in K-BB%, lots of red on baseballsavant, looks good on arsenal scores, 5 pitches with positive values on fangraphs, definitely for real. 

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17 hours ago, cdd10 said:

They say his ERA is about 1.20 too low.

So a 3.20ERA, .9 WHIP, and 12.7 K/9, yeah that’ll do. 

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I am a full believer in Burns' talent.

I just refuse to draft a pitcher that is on a team with a borderline bad offense.

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On 9/4/2020 at 9:31 PM, B&F said:

Has he unlocked something?

 

Used to be slider heavy, now he's suddenly able to paint the corners with a 93-94 mph cutter. Throwing it 25% of the time according to fangraphs. Only throwing his fastball 40% of the time after throwing it almost 60% of the time his first two seasons.

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Used to be slider heavy, now he's suddenly able to paint the corners with a 93-94 mph cutter. Throwing it 25% of the time according to fangraphs. Only throwing his fastball 40% of the time after throwing it almost 60% of the time his first two seasons.


The slider is still far and away his best pitch (maybe the best pitch in MLB for SPs) but apparently he is throwing it less due to matchups.


The key is he is throwing his fastball less (counter intuitive since it is 96-98 mph)

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2 hours ago, B&F said:

I am a full believer in Burns' talent.

I just refuse to draft a pitcher that is on a team with a borderline bad offense.

Legitimately a terrible strategy. Why would you avoid a guy that will be elite in all categories except for the one that is predominantly linked with luck? Wins are not even on my radar when I look for pitching unless I am streaming to try and snipe W's. And the Crew have been sluggish this year but they have plenty of talent to be middle of the pack.

Edited by KrunK
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2 hours ago, ktierne3 said:

Where do we think his ADP is next season?

 

As of today I would think he's around 70- 80 next season. 

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How about where he ranks going into 2021 among SPs? Top 40? 30? Higher?

I'll take a stab and say he'll be around # 25. 

What do others think?

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1 hour ago, nittanychris said:

How about where he ranks going into 2021 among SPs? Top 40? 30? Higher?

I'll take a stab and say he'll be around # 25. 

What do others think?

In terms of where he goes? Or what he's worth? I think I'd put him top 20. As of today he is #1 in FIP, #9 in xFIP, #25 in K/BB, #3 in K/9 among starters....so he's legit and I think there's going to be a lot of hype surrounding him next season. What keeps me from putting him in the top fifteen is that I think there will be established guys coming back next season that people will take over him such as sale, syndergaard, Verlander etc, or guys who maybe didn't perform quite as well this season but have a longer track record.

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