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Cristian Javier 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Is he scheduled to start at all next week? Astros do not list a starter for 8/5. 

Edited by johnnyboy8102

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On 7/31/2020 at 6:14 PM, johnnyboy8102 said:

Is he scheduled to start at all next week? Astros do not list a starter for 8/5. 

No update from McTaggart yet (their top beat reporter). Still tbd...

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Valdez just entered the game in relief. That makes me believe Javier will start Tuesday (08/04) now.  

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27 minutes ago, jctexan said:

Valdez just entered the game in relief. That makes me believe Javier will start Tuesday (08/04) now.  

 

I think it's very safe to say James is out of rotation after today's 2nd straight stinker and Javier is in.

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4 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

I think it's very safe to say James is out of rotation after today's 2nd straight stinker and Javier is in.

That might depend on Verlander, but I do think Javier is ahead of James now. 

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9 hours ago, TheForearmShiver said:

 

 

Is Javier legit or is he another Josh James?  He looked great against the Dodgers stacked lineup last week and didn't have any control issues at all, but word on the street is that he didn't have very good control in the minors.  The D'backs are ice cold offensively averaging only 2.7 runs per game so far this season, but if Javier can't throw strikes, it doesn't matter who the opposition is, as evidenced by Josh James's last two starts.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Is Javier legit or is he another Josh James?  He looked great against the Dodgers stacked lineup last week and didn't have any control issues at all, but word on the street is that he didn't have very good control in the minors.  The D'backs are ice cold offensively averaging only 2.7 runs per game so far this season, but if Javier can't throw strikes, it doesn't matter who the opposition is, as evidenced by Josh James's last two starts.


Lol@word on the street 😄

 

ive heard a lot of Freddy Peralta comps.   And that seems more comparable to me,  They have similar-ish repertoires although Javier DOES actually throw breaking balls and did in his start.  I think Peralta had like 12k in 5 ip his first start before lighting up everyone’s whips and era’s.  He did the same thing last year in his debut.  Javier could be a guy that no one was prepared for and will be figured out and promptly bludgeoned or he could be a guy the Astros used their magic on to turn into this years stud pitcher waiver gem.  I’d at least wait for his start Tuesday for more information if possible.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cesare13 said:


Lol@word on the street 😄

 

ive heard a lot of Freddy Peralta comps.   And that seems more comparable to me,  They have similar-ish repertoires although Javier DOES actually throw breaking balls and did in his start.  I think Peralta had like 12k in 5 ip his first start before lighting up everyone’s whips and era’s.  He did the same thing last year in his debut.  Javier could be a guy that no one was prepared for and will be figured out and promptly bludgeoned or he could be a guy the Astros used their magic on to turn into this years stud pitcher waiver gem.  I’d at least wait for his start Tuesday for more information if possible.

Damn, hearing a comparison to Freddy Peralta (who has a brutal career ERA of 4.92 ERA) does not bode well.  That's even worse than a Josh James comparison (career 4.54 ERA).  I was hoping Javier was better than that.  I was hoping we'd at least be talking about Robbie Ray level (career 4.16 ERA).

Edited by FootballFan101

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Once again, his value will be tied to him being able to sustain velocity up to 90+ pitches. If he can't he's a reliever, maybe multi innings , or just a very short starter.

 

This is the main thing to watch for.  

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Once again, his value will be tied to him being able to sustain velocity up to 90+ pitches. If he can't he's a reliever, maybe multi innings , or just a very short starter.

 

This is the main thing to watch for.  

Hard to judge him on pitches. Very few pitchers are throwing 90 pitches right now. This will only be his 2nd start & I doubt he had too many spring training starts. He threw 82 pitches vs. LAD but really 70-75 pitches was his threshold last start. He lost about 3mph on his fastball and looked worn out in the 6th inning. MLB debut & his 1st start this year, so that's not entirely surprising. I would think his threshold will be about 80 to 85 pitches this time around.          

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7 minutes ago, jctexan said:

Hard to judge him on pitches. Very few pitchers are throwing 90 pitches right now. This will only be his 2nd start & I doubt he had too many spring training starts. He threw 82 pitches vs. LAD but really 70-75 pitches was his threshold last start. He lost about 3mph on his fastball and looked worn out in the 6th inning. MLB debut & his 1st start this year, so that's not entirely surprising. I would think his threshold will be about 80 to 85 pitches this time around.          

 

That's fine. If he trends better on holding up, that's a start. I'm not tied to 90 pitches. Also while he got worn out in the 6th, he was ridiculously efficient up until that point. I'm not sure that efficiency is to be expected each time out, it was elite up until the 6th. If he doesn't hold his velocity deeper into games, it's going to wear out well before the 6th just based on that game as a sample.

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Posted (edited)
On 8/3/2020 at 9:47 AM, Cesare13 said:


Lol@word on the street 😄

 

ive heard a lot of Freddy Peralta comps.   And that seems more comparable to me,  They have similar-ish repertoires although Javier DOES actually throw breaking balls and did in his start.  I think Peralta had like 12k in 5 ip his first start before lighting up everyone’s whips and era’s.  He did the same thing last year in his debut.  Javier could be a guy that no one was prepared for and will be figured out and promptly bludgeoned or he could be a guy the Astros used their magic on to turn into this years stud pitcher waiver gem.  I’d at least wait for his start Tuesday for more information if possible.

 

I'm starting him tonight [...]  Your comparison to Freddy Peralta makes me very nervous though. 

Edited by tonycpsu
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low pitch counts so far... 3IPs ... 32 pitches... hope he can keep it up.... looking for a QS

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The Ks are disappointing. But the ratios look great.  Anyone watch him and can give insight on how his stuff looked?

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3 minutes ago, HaloFanatic17 said:

The Ks are disappointing. But the ratios look great.  Anyone watch him and can give insight on how his stuff looked?

I watched bits and pieces, I don’t think he looked great. Hung to many pitches over the plate and his fast ball doesn’t look like it blows anyone away. Results have been there back to back starts though, so what do I know? 

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On 8/3/2020 at 9:47 AM, Cesare13 said:


Lol@word on the street 😄

 

ive heard a lot of Freddy Peralta comps.   And that seems more comparable to me,  They have similar-ish repertoires although Javier DOES actually throw breaking balls and did in his start.  I think Peralta had like 12k in 5 ip his first start before lighting up everyone’s whips and era’s.  He did the same thing last year in his debut.  Javier could be a guy that no one was prepared for and will be figured out and promptly bludgeoned or he could be a guy the Astros used their magic on to turn into this years stud pitcher waiver gem.  I’d at least wait for his start Tuesday for more information if possible.

 

He could not looked less like Freddy Peralta tonight in any way (good or bad).  Peralta gets a ton of Ks with atrocious ratios.  Javier had only two strikeouts (which was disappointing), but had no control issues and was very efficient and posted a good ERA and WHIP.

A lot of tonight's good ERA and WHIP was probably due to the fact that the D'backs are ice cold offensively right now, but at least Javier threw strikes (in contrast to someone like Peralta or Josh James) to take advantage of a struggling lineup.

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So was this more of a result of a struggling lineup or a solid pitching performance?  Does he seem more of a streamer?

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46 minutes ago, HaloFanatic17 said:

So was this more of a result of a struggling lineup or a solid pitching performance?  Does he seem more of a streamer?

 

From watching the game tonight, I'd have to say the former unfortunately.  But to some extent, it's encouraging (considering he struggled with control in the minors) that he didn't have any control issues tonight and he was able to throw enough strikes to take advantage of an ice cold lineup.  Not every pitcher is capable of doing that (for example, see Josh James's last two starts against two weak lineups).

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

He could not looked less like Freddy Peralta tonight in any way (good or bad).  Peralta gets a ton of Ks with atrocious ratios.  Javier had only two strikeouts (which was disappointing), but had no control issues and was very efficient and posted a good ERA and WHIP.

A lot of tonight's good ERA and WHIP was probably due to the fact that the D'backs are ice cold offensively right now, but at least Javier threw strikes (in contrast to someone like Peralta or Josh James) to take advantage of a struggling lineup.


They’re both sort of short, sort of stocky guys.  2 pitch starters with elite k rates in the minors and something in the range of 4.5 bb/9.  The profile screams bullpen.

However, if he has developed a 3rd pitch and improved his control he could be a monster.  Control is usually the last thing young pitchers improve on, and many of them simply don’t. Stats of course don’t measure what’s in between the ears either.
 His team context is about as good as it gets with a good lineup, good bullpen and Houston’s ability to work miracles on pitchers.  
If you get  brad peacock starter numbers you’ve done very well. If he turns into Luís severino, you found a league winner,  If he turns into peralta, it’s no big deal because he likely cost you relatively little.

Edited by Cesare13

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Am I missing something. Why is no one a believer in this guy. He was absolutely dominant in the minors and seems to be pretty dominant now. Do you have to have a high 90's FB to be a dominant pitcher in MLB?

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10 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

I watched bits and pieces, I don’t think he looked great. Hung to many pitches over the plate and his fast ball doesn’t look like it blows anyone away. Results have been there back to back starts though, so what do I know? 

meh. i still trust the eye test to some extent.  i might try and move him, but i doubt he has great value

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