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2020 August Closer Thread

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3 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

The current bullpen breakdown as best I can tell:

 

Established closers:

Strong:  7:  WSox, Dodgers, Brewers, Yankees, A's, Phillies, Padres

Medium:  4:  Dbacks, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins (assuming Rogers)

Weak:  5:  Braves, Reds, Marlins, Cards (Kim), Blue Jays (Bass)

Committees:  10:  Cubs(?),  Rockies(?),  Mets(?), Orioles, Royals, Pirates, Mariners, Giants, Rays, Angels

Debatable:  4:  Indians (Karinchak(?)), Rangers (Goody(?)), Nats (Hudson(?)), Astros (Pressley(?))

I'd definitely put the Twins (Rogers) as strong.  40 saves last season.  Three perfect saves so far this season.  How could he not be rated anything but one of the strongest closers in all of baseball.

OTOH, Padres (Yates) is struggling out of the gate.

And Nats really aren't a committee at this point.  I think it is Hudson's to lose.  Granted the manager could keep giving Doolittle a chance but Hudson has looked way better so far.

I'd move the Red Sox closer to "weak" (Workman) but they have no real replacement for him either given their whole pen is a dumpster fire. 

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Anyone else starting to trend away from leagues with just saves?  I know this season is a mess but even before all of this I started making my leagues SVHD.  There just seems to be so much risk in drafting closers anymore.  

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I'd definitely put the Twins (Rogers) as strong.  40 saves last season.  Three perfect saves so far this season.  How could he not be rated anything but one of the strongest closers in all of baseball.

OTOH, Padres (Yates) is struggling out of the gate.

And Nats really aren't a committee at this point.  I think it is Hudson's to lose.  Granted the manager could keep giving Doolittle a chance but Hudson has looked way better so far.

I'd move the Red Sox closer to "weak" (Workman) but they have no real replacement for him either given their whole pen is a dumpster fire. 

Only the Twins refusal to acknowledge Rogers as the closer and give a chance to Romo at times make me reluctant to put him as Strong, but that is splitting hairs really at this point.  No problem classifying him as strong as long as he gets the bulk of the save ops.

Yates has not lost the job (at least not yet) so we shall see.  The closers are dropping like flies.

I have Hudson as Debatable not committee.  Any of the debatable players could conceivably be adequate closers if they manage to establish themselves but as of yet that is not determined.

Workman was OK at the end of last year and has been OK so far this year, so I think his job is safe for the time being.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Anyone else starting to trend away from leagues with just saves?  I know this season is a mess but even before all of this I started making my leagues SVHD.  There just seems to be so much risk in drafting closers anymore.  

 

Yeah, saves have become a crapshoot, necessitating following the closer carousel's like a hawk. In SVHD leagues you simply select the best relievers and basically stay with them ROS, outside of rare busts.

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Posted (edited)

https://www.mlb.com/news/scott-oberg-ends-throwing-session-early
 

FYI, if Davis loses the gig, Oberg might not be as close as we thought. Couldn’t grip the ball right in his throwing session and stepping back to get it checked out.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/roxpile.com/2020/08/01/colorado-rockies-scott-oberg-suffers-setback/amp/

Edited by Caelum
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8 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Anyone else starting to trend away from leagues with just saves?  I know this season is a mess but even before all of this I started making my leagues SVHD.  There just seems to be so much risk in drafting closers anymore.  

 

That doesn't sound like much fun. Adding holds just waters everything down, imho. 

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2 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

 

Yeah, saves have become a crapshoot, necessitating following the closer carousel's like a hawk. In SVHD leagues you simply select the best relievers and basically stay with them ROS, outside of rare busts.

The middle relievers are just as problematic.  Yes there are some good ones like Britton, but many have good and bad years just as erratic as the closers and many fall off a cliff come August.  There is no solution to the chaos of the closer mess in fantasy short of getting rid of it as a category\not rostering relievers altogether.  And Holds is such a stupid category imo as just about any stiff in the pen can get a hold so bringing that stupidity into a Roto game is not something I would ever want to do, but that is me. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That doesn't sound like much fun. Adding holds just waters everything down, imho. 

Not really.  Your top closers still average more saves then your top holds guys.  I'd rather combine the 2 categories then having to play guess who with who the next closer for a team is going to be.  

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Anyone else starting to trend away from leagues with just saves?  I know this season is a mess but even before all of this I started making my leagues SVHD.  There just seems to be so much risk in drafting closers anymore.  

I haven't played in a Saves league in a half dozen years or whenever Yahoo added Saves+Holds.  All my leagues long ago switched to Saves+Holds or SVHD as you put it.  I come to the closer thread to see what dark horses people like here for closers since that means they already would be good for holds usually and closers average more saves/holds on average than holds guys so closers retain a more elite status on the whole in those leagues.  And every single person in every single league I have been in just loves Saves+Holds and would never go back to plain old vanilla saves again ever.  And I do mean EVERY.  No hyperbole here.

11 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

Only the Twins refusal to acknowledge Rogers as the closer and give a chance to Romo at times make me reluctant to put him as Strong, but that is splitting hairs really at this point.  No problem classifying him as strong as long as he gets the bulk of the save ops.

Yates has not lost the job (at least not yet) so we shall see.  The closers are dropping like flies.

I have Hudson as Debatable not committee.  Any of the debatable players could conceivably be adequate closers if they manage to establish themselves but as of yet that is not determined.

Workman was OK at the end of last year and has been OK so far this year, so I think his job is safe for the time being.

Well if you watched him, Workman has been far than okay this year.  He has been horrible.  Closers shouldn't be throwing 30+ pitches in an inning and walking everyone in site and looking very shaky every time out.  There just isn't any alternative to him right now since Barnes stinks too.  On a normal team no way would he be closing.

And Rogers is the closer.  Romo got one chance early on before the manager started to use Rogers.  Since then it has been Rogers all the way.  And as my pal Will would say, "A closer by any other name smells as a sweet."

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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3 minutes ago, secretagentman said:

The middle relievers are just as problematic.  Yes there are some good ones like Britton, but many have good and bad years just as erratic as the closers and many fall off a cliff come August.  There is no solution to the chaos of the closer mess in fantasy short of getting rid of it as a category\not rostering relievers altogether.  And Holds is such a stupid category imo as just about any stiff in the pen can get a hold so bringing that stupidity into a Roto game is not something I would ever want to do, but that is me. 

I would have no issue with this.  You can still use really good RP to lower your ERA and WHIP but guessing who is closing nowadays is super frustrating.

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Just now, knifeparty said:

Not really.  Your top closers still average more saves then your top holds guys.  I'd rather combine the 2 categories then having to play guess who with who the next closer for a team is going to be.  

 

That's one of the great things about fantasy...we can find leagues that suit our desires :). I think it waters things down because you can still find any number of RPs who produce holds and not have to really mess with them too much. Personally, I enjoy the saves chase. Some days I hate it, but most days I enjoy the chase and the guessing game. I wouldn't be interested in a SVHD league. But you do, and that's cool. I can agree to disagree :)

 

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I haven't played in a Saves league in a half dozen years or whenever Yahoo added Saves+Holds.  All my leagues long ago switched to Saves+Holds or SVHD as you put it.  I come to the closer thread to see what dark horses people like here for closers since that means they already would be good for holds usually and closers average more saves/holds on average than holds guys so closers retain a more elite status on the whole in those leagues.  And every single person in every single league I have been in just loves Saves+Holds and would never go back to plain old vanilla saves again ever.  And I do mean EVERY.  No hyperbole here.

 

I've brought up svhd twice in the 10 years of the league I run, and it has unanimously been rejected both times. I've been in a svhd league, and I prefer saves only. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That's one of the great things about fantasy...we can find leagues that suit our desires :). I think it waters things down because you can still find any number of RPs who produce holds and not have to really mess with them too much. Personally, I enjoy the saves chase. Some days I hate it, but most days I enjoy the chase and the guessing game. I wouldn't be interested in a SVHD league. But you do, and that's cool. I can agree to disagree :)

 

I think most people have grown to hate the saves mess as it is far worse in the past couple years than it ever has been and it has always been bad with 50+% turnover in most years.  That said, saves is part of the game and the idea is to play a model that emulates the game so it is what it is as they say.  The equivalent on the offensive side is SBs, which are a pita as well to deal with unless you happen to be able to draft\keep a handful of elite SB guys.  You sort of just have to grin and bear it and do the best you can.

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That's one of the great things about fantasy...we can find leagues that suit our desires :). I think it waters things down because you can still find any number of RPs who produce holds and not have to really mess with them too much. Personally, I enjoy the saves chase. Some days I hate it, but most days I enjoy the chase and the guessing game. I wouldn't be interested in a SVHD league. But you do, and that's cool. I can agree to disagree :)

 

Oh yeah man no hard feelings at all!!!  Your absolutely right in that it waters it down.  I just can't stand the saves chase anymore myself.  The one really good thing about SVHD is that during drafts people don't go crazy drafting RP's.  

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Generally closers will get more saves than top set up men will get holds but not necessarily. Pressley got 32 holds last year. 32 holds would place him 9th against closers in 19'--but Pressley also got 3 vulture saves. That pulled him to 5th in SV/HLD and then you factor in his dominant ratios and he is even better.

 

If you can get a dominant setup guy like Pressley on an elite team he becomes a "set and forget" choice. You don't have to worry about scrubs like Ian Kennedy anymore.

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1 minute ago, knifeparty said:

Oh yeah man no hard feelings at all!!!  Your absolutely right in that it waters it down.  I just can't stand the saves chase anymore myself.  The one really good thing about SVHD is that during drafts people don't go crazy drafting RP's.  

Which is why at that point you can make an argument to just get rid of it entirely.  Replacing a pita category of value statistically with a category that has almost no meaning at all and just fills up roster space is going from bad to worse imo, but that is me. 

One could probably conceive of a category to replace saves that might carry more meaning without overlapping existing categories like quality starts does with Ws, but I do not think that is so easy.  The other option would be to just make a requirement to add X numbers of relievers to your roster (real relievers, not SPs that qualify as RPs)  and have a min IP requirement for those RPs.  Whatever W,s K,s and ratio help you get is what you would roster for.  This way you look to get top relievers that might get a vulture W here and there as opposed to chasing Saves or meaningless Holds.

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1 minute ago, secretagentman said:

Which is why at that point you can make an argument to just get rid of it entirely.  Replacing a pita category of value statistically with a category that has almost no meaning at all and just fills up roster space is going from bad to worse imo, but that is me. 

One could probably conceive of a category to replace saves that might carry more meaning without overlapping existing categories like quality starts does with Ws, but I do not think that is so easy.  The other option would be to just make a requirement to add X numbers of relievers to your roster (real relievers, not SPs that qualify as RPs)  and have a min IP requirement for those RPs.  Whatever W,s K,s and ratio help you get is what you would roster for.  This way you look to get top relievers that might get a vulture W here and there as opposed to chasing Saves or meaningless Holds.

K's per 9 is a decent enough category that favors strong RP's.  

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14 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

Oh yeah man no hard feelings at all!!!  Your absolutely right in that it waters it down.  I just can't stand the saves chase anymore myself.  The one really good thing about SVHD is that during drafts people don't go crazy drafting RP's.  

Another good reason is in dynasties a person taking over an orphan club needing to rebuild their pitching staff can compete pretty strongly out of the gate by stacking in and micro-managing relievers.  It is a way to hold on to new owners rather than see them discouraged and quitting.  As to other categories the K per 9 mentioned by knifeparty is good as well as K/BB which is what we use as our 6th stat category for pitchers.  Add in the roto format with limited innings and good holds guys are very valuable.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, knifeparty said:

K's per 9 is a decent enough category that favors strong RP's.  

Except with Ks already a category in 5x5 and with IP limits being set at some level either directly or by weekly roster sizes, it is effectively already a category as teams need to maximize their Ks per allotted IPs.  Putting it in there would essentially be double counting Ks and encouraging owners to go find starters with RP elig or playing some sort of spot starter game that is not what the model should be about imo.  The categories in Roto should each measure something different.  Obviously there is some connection between quality pitching and low eras and Whips, higher ks, and Ws, but it is not a direct correlation. 

Edited by secretagentman

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Cubs fan here. Big time feeling that Wick is going to take the closers job and run with. Really nice fastball with 96 heat, good rise, and a snapper curveball to mix it with. Obviously Kimbrel or Jeffress could still be there, but if I'm David Ross I'm letting Jeffress continue to be the high-leverage pinch guy and Kimbrel work back from clearly sucking. But I'm a Cubs fan so I'm probably wrong, because we usually are!

In other news, you have to think Osuna is shelved for a while and I think should get Pressly if still availble. It's a problem that he's been having arm issues too, but if he's healthy he should have a decent leash on the job just in case things get off to a rocky start.

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3 full pages on this 31rst hour of August.Prefer both saves and holds as categories.Chasing saves successfully could leave a hole in holds and you might just have to trade a Wick,Bass,Gott,Williams etc.for a reliable holds guy.Part of the strategic fun of fantasy.

Hope Abreu gets a shot for relevance in Houston,he's the most available for me.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, FantasyFiend said:

whose the guy after Pressley?

Probably Cy Sneed, Fernando Rodney, or maybe Bryan Abreu. I expect Pressly to run with it though.

Edited by Team Dynasty

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