Duke Johnson 2020 Outlook

[The G Man 981]

FWIW...

Laremy Tunsil (flu) returned to Texans practice Tuesday, getting in a "full" session. 

Tunsil missed Week 11 with his apparently non-COVID illness. Predictably one of the league's very best tackles on Deshaun Watson's blindside this season, Tunsil will be returning against a Lions team with a nearly nonexistent pass rush. 

Nov 24, 2020, 5:58 PM ET

 

 

[pierceNKC 493]

can you even trust duke at this point? he's had 2 games as the "bellcow" and in my .5ppr league, he hasn't topped 6 points.

[The G Man 981]

7 minutes ago, pierceNKC said:

can you even trust duke at this point? he's had 2 games as the "bellcow" and in my .5ppr league, he hasn't topped 6 points.

 

That's what I'm wondering as well, because it's otherwise a great match-up. Would love to hear what others think. Time's running short on making a decision. 

[Steve-O 44]

11 minutes ago, pierceNKC said:

can you even trust duke at this point? he's had 2 games as the "bellcow" and in my .5ppr league, he hasn't topped 6 points.

Starting with 0% confidence. 

[mortman212 324]

Ya anybody has insight on Duke, he has ever had a good game in his career when play a high percentage of snaps. 

[Thrill22 82]

59 minutes ago, mortman212 said:

Ya anybody has insight on Duke, he has ever had a good game in his career when play a high percentage of snaps. 

Don't know about that, but on the CBS fantasy football podcast there is speculation that Duke has a chest/rib injury. Could see Procise take some work from him.

[TeflonDonNewcombe 75]

I see this as a game where Deshaun and his wide receivers will cook and you'll need Duke to fall into the endzone for any sort of production. Low floor / capped ceiling in my opinion. He's just a COP back at best in the league. 

14 minutes ago, Thrill22 said:

Don't know about that, but on the CBS fantasy football podcast there is speculation that Duke has a chest/rib injury. Could see Procise take some work from him.

 

This is great insight, thanks. I mentioned this in a prior post but for some reason my gut is screaming that Prosise will get more run this week due to Duke's underwhelming performances but the possible injury only solidifies that. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by TeflonDonNewcombe

[Steve-O 44]

17 minutes ago, Thrill22 said:

Don't know about that, but on the CBS fantasy football podcast there is speculation that Duke has a chest/rib injury. Could see Procise take some work from him.

This sounds like my signal to bench. Thanks for the insight

[MBarbarian 968]

[MBarbarian 968]

He is the perfect grenade to drop on the wire and let him blow up someone else's starting lineup.

[varock 219]

From Mike Tagliere’s primer this week:

 

Quote

Duke Johnson: We have one more week of David Johnson being held out on injured reserve, which means another week of Duke Johnson as the primary ball carrier for the Texans. Unfortunately, that hasn’t amounted to much of anything. In the two games as the workhorse, Johnson has totaled just 69 yards on 24 carries, and has chipped in with just three catches for 20 yards. We’re finding out why Johnson was never given a workhorse role with the Browns or Texans. Is the matchup too juicy to pass up this week? Against the Lions, running backs have outscored quarterbacks by a league-high 15.39 fantasy points. The Lions have allowed 83.4 PPR points per game to skill-position players (2nd-most), and 41.0 percent of that has gone to the running back position, which is the second-highest percentage in the NFL. They’ve allowed more rushing touchdowns (14) and receiving touchdowns (5) to running backs than any other team in the league. That all amounts to a league-leading 34.2 PPR points per game allowed to running backs. The Lions are bad across the board, as they’ve allowed the second-most points on the ground to running backs and have also allowed the third-most points through the air to them. There is no team in the league who’s seen more weighted opportunity per game to running backs than the Lions. Running backs have averaged a massive 31.4 touches per game against them, so Johnson should be in line for plenty of touches in this game. He should be plugged in as a high-floor RB2 this week with a shot to finish top-12 against this porous defense.

 
Ugh, these experts getting in my head again. Taking the plunge with Duke for the third straight time after showing us absolutely nothing seems like a losing proposition. On the other hand, would it be surprising to anyone if he went off on our benches? 🤔

 

[Evincar 1,682]

8 minutes ago, varock said:

From Mike Tagliere’s primer this week:

 

 
Ugh, these experts getting in my head again. Taking the plunge with Duke for the third straight time after showing us absolutely nothing seems like a losing proposition. On the other hand, would it be surprising to anyone if he went off on our benches? 🤔

 

 

What is upside in this matchup? Like 14-17 points? 

[dontclapGonorrhea 370]

6 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

What is upside in this matchup? Like 14-17 points? 

Hoping for 15 points ideally. 

[TeflonDonNewcombe 75]

2 hours ago, varock said:

From Mike Tagliere’s primer this week:

 

 
Ugh, these experts getting in my head again. Taking the plunge with Duke for the third straight time after showing us absolutely nothing seems like a losing proposition. On the other hand, would it be surprising to anyone if he went off on our benches? 🤔

 

Just keep in mind these numbers are a bit skewed by massive games from Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook (both well over 200 all purpose yards) and the Kamara / Lat Murray duo. No doubt Detroit’s defense is garbage but Duke couldn’t hold those guys jock straps. James Robinson had 12 carries 29 yards. Duke isn’t guaranteed a blow up game mostly because he’s shown he’s not a very good NFL RB. The RB landscape is brutal so I wouldn’t blame anyone from playing the matchup. I just think Deshaun is going to feast and Duke will be left with the scraps. And something tells me Prosise will have a larger role this week. Best of luck to everyone. 

[Silkk1211 697]

Drop him before the game and save yourself the headache. 

[The G Man 981]

Yahoo is projecting him at 13.20FP in our HPPR leadue, which seems very generous given he's scored 5 and 5.4FP the last two weeks. He did have 13.3 points in the game against Jacksonville, but that was because he scored his only TD of the season. That's the key here, can he score? We all know when they get close Watson likes to run it in, and further out they're throwing it, so what are his chances? 5%? 10%? Not liking the odds. 

Leaning towards benching him.

[thegoodback 50]

Yes Det is bad, very bad against the run

Yes Gamescript likley favors Houston running the ball

Yes they will get Tunsil back

 

anyway, for me too much uncertainty with this guy. We saw his floor around 5-6 points. TD or Bust. And i don‘t see that tuddy coming.

think it depends on your options at rb. I would play him over other uncertain low floor guys. But if you have other decent option, I‘m benching and avoid the turkey game. And if he goes off by accodent, i‘m looking to get his points from the Gus Bus 😤 or even Monty 

[BigOrangeScrew 32]

Rolling this turd out again today.  With all these COVID shutdowns, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to go ahead and start guys while you can.  No guarantee that Pitt/Baltimore even happens this week and who knows what else could come down the pike.  

[Jordan23 1,221]

12 hours ago, Silkk1211 said:

Drop him before the game and save yourself the headache. 

This is the logical advise however the situation is so tempting.  

[Bugs bunny 1,727]

24 minutes ago, BigOrangeScrew said:

Rolling this turd out again today.  With all these COVID shutdowns, I don’t think it’s a bad idea to go ahead and start guys while you can.  No guarantee that Pitt/Baltimore even happens this week and who knows what else could come down the pike.  

So your saying hit the panic button. 

[Bugs bunny 1,727]

12 hours ago, Silkk1211 said:

Drop him before the game and save yourself the headache. 

Yep dropped this morning. Not using him today anyway and now he’ll be unavailable to my league mates this week. Plus DJ will be back next week and the schedule is brutal. 

[atdharris 288]

I dropped him today as well. Just no reason to think he'll go off when he never has before. Of course, I say that, which means he'll have 30 points

[AnchorDown 617]

This guy is still a top 20 option, regardless of how bad he has been lately. The opportunity is there and the matchup couldn’t be better. As someone who has started him the past two weeks I understand the sour grapes in this thread, but most of us don’t have a lot of other great options. If you are someone who has been rotating backs in and out of your RB2 slot and you’re choosing between Duke and AP, or Ahmed, or were running with Gio, I don’t see how you have another option besides to start Duke. There are maybe 15 guys you can feel confident about starting this week. Duke is not in that group but you could do far worse. 

[sjm76 769]

This is one of those cases where the matchup is great but the player isn't.  Tough to say whether to start or bench but if you're fighting for a playoff spot and have comparable options, I would probably roll with another player.  But if your choices are Johnson and someone like Zack Moss or Frank Gore, I would probably start Johnson.

[sjm76 769]

19 minutes ago, AnchorDown said:

This guy is still a top 20 option, regardless of how bad he has been lately. The opportunity is there and the matchup couldn’t be better. As someone who has started him the past two weeks I understand the sour grapes in this thread, but most of us don’t have a lot of other great options. If you are someone who has been rotating backs in and out of your RB2 slot and you’re choosing between Duke and AP, or Ahmed, or were running with Gio, I don’t see how you have another option besides to start Duke. There are maybe 15 guys you can feel confident about starting this week. Duke is not in that group but you could do far worse. 

I also read somewhere other than here that Duke may be dealing with a chest or rib injury so that also factors into whether to start him.  It's a tough call.