The G Man

Chase Edmonds 2020 Outlook

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I’m not a big advocate for betting on injuries but Kenyan Drake is a good candidate to miss at least a couple weeks without even having to get an I.R. Level injury. Being able to throw Edmonds in your flex as a top 8 RB lock is worth a roster spot. He’s also likely worth his draft cost.

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Just now, GOAT-dell Beckham said:

I’m not a big advocate for betting on injuries but Kenyan Drake is a good candidate to miss at least a couple weeks without even having to get an I.R. Level injury. Being able to throw Edmonds in your flex as a top 8 RB lock is worth a roster spot. He’s also likely worth his draft cost.

You could say this about anyone and as I mentioned, Pollard and Mattison are essentially in the same position.  Drake was in the boot but apparently was just precautionary and now seems fine.  Miles Sanders had the leg injury but he's apparently ok too.  Both the Cardinals and Eagles only kept 3 RBs, which is a good indicator that the stars are healthy.

In the end, it's about whether you like to hold somebody else's handcuff (obviously different if you own Drake or Sanders) and "hoping" for injury.  So I guess we could look those injury predictor websites.  Sportinjurypredictor.com (and who knows how accurate they turn out to be) has Chris Thompson at 99% (lol), Dalvin Cook at 96% (!), Kamara at 90%, Drake at 57%, and Miles Sanders at 40%.  Drake is projected to miss 1.2 games.  So sure, Edmonds would be awesome...for those 1.2 games.  And really only 1 game, since you're not going to start Edmonds if Drake is starting.  

It's all about how you feel about handcuffs.  Handcuff your own RBs, handcuff other people's RBs, yada yada.  It's playing the lotto and all about cost.  Latavius and Mattison (and Hunt) all come at significant cost.  But the Edmonds, Boston Scotts, Tony Pollards, etc. are much cheaper.  Just need to get one to hit and you're golden.  But obviously there's no science to it.

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Somewhat encouraging Week 1 usage, though still more of a handcuff hold than anything else at this stage.

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Drake Is the ninth highest paid running back in the league at $8.5 million on a one year deal. He is their horse this year, but surely the cardinals will want to let him walk after this year and not pay up like they did with David Johnson. In the meantime they will definitely want to see what they have in Edmonds, who makes just $750,000. Edmonds is the future, but the cardinals didn't pay all the money to drake just to give him a short leash this year. It will take an injury or extreme outperformance by Edmonds for him to have any chance  take over that backfield 

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The question is Edmond worth using a roster spot as the Drake owner?

As other said only injury or potential bye week replacement gets him in your lineup. 

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20 minutes ago, CanaBuc said:

The question is Edmond worth using a roster spot as the Drake owner?

As other said only injury or potential bye week replacement gets him in your lineup. 

my opinion. If you are not cuff'n Drake with Edmonds, ur doing this wrong. 1st season of Drake as feature back, who is not really built for feature back duties...if ANYTHING happens to Drake..Edmonds vaults to RB1 status. They trust Edmonds already. He had a good week 1 as the "change of pace" back on an offense that will put up points. There are cuffs and ELITE cuffs (edmonds, mattison, etc) According to pro analyst @evansilva , who watched the tape "Chase Edmonds is #Cardinals best RB" but they have alot of $$ tied to Drake. Prob based on the size of ur league...but if Drake goes down, you will have to spend $$$ FAAB to get him. get him now

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5 minutes ago, wuchild97 said:

 According to pro analyst @evansilva , who watched the tape "Chase Edmonds is #Cardinals best RB" 

Anybody on here pay the $300 or so that Evan Silva charges for his site? I saw the tweet and I’m curious what his reasoning is. As an Edmonds owner, I’m hoping he does indeed get more playing time. But wondering how he formed his opinion and why exactly is Chase better.

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I do not pay for the site. My guess..he is just referring to being an actual RB, Edmonds prob looked the part > Drake. Natural runner. Edmonds can ball, Drake is just more dynamic. As a fins fan, ive seen Drake in action, hes legit just not really built like a traditional RB

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4 hours ago, CanaBuc said:

The question is Edmond worth using a roster spot as the Drake owner?

As other said only injury or potential bye week replacement gets him in your lineup. 

 

Easiest yes in the history of yeses

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BAsically need a drake injury for him to be truly relevant. I don't have drake so he's just taking up space on the bench

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What the hell is going on this year?  Drake owners are asking if they should be "wasting" a bench spot on Edmonds?  Really?

One of the biggest parts of fantasy are owning the game changing handcuffs / 2nd-in-a-committee-backs that could explode if the top guy gets hurt/suspended/fumble-itis, etc.  (Think back to your best teams, or whoever won the title in your league the last couple years - those teams usually had one of these guys who had no job at the beginning of the season on the roster.)

It is important to be able to identify who these players are and who they are not.  The equation is generally a combination of the handcuff's talent and the potency of the offense.  Here are some examples of game-changing guys (this is not an exhaustive list):

Mattison - looks to be a great talent; Minnesota is an offense who will rely on the RB
Hunt - proven star in the recent past; Chubb injury would make him likely bellcow; a bit different than many on this list because he has stand alone value now
Lat Murray - proven star in the recent past; already valuable; tremendous offense
Pollard - has flashed big time in limited work; seems to have three-down skill set; good offense & line
Edmonds - has flashed in the past; potentially incredible offense for fantasy; next competition for carries is a 7th round rookie (or something like that)
Snell - team seems to like him enough to make him the bellcow; offense consistently cranks out top 15 RB options

So yes, Edmonds definitely fits the mold here.  Unless you're in a shallow league (10 teamer), having Drake and not Edmonds is just crazy to me.  And I'd be more than happy to hold Edmonds as a high-upside bench stash in any league with any depth.

Here are some examples of "no need to cuff" situations:

Adrian Peterson's backup for most of history.  Toby Gerhart comes to mind.  I remember this guy being snapped up over and over again.  But the "role" wasn't that valuable there.  It was Peterson's preternatural ability that made the fantasy points flow.  

McCaffrey's or Barkley's backup.  These do not appear to be good offenses and the incredible volume given to the RB1 position in those teams is because of their unique abilities.  A "cuff" who stepped in would likely be no better than RB20 on a go-forward basis.  The end of my bench is not for low ceiling guys.  Whereas if tomorrow, aliens abducted Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Elliott, Drake, and Conner, any of the six guys I listed above could easily be top 10 backs.

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20 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

What the hell is going on this year?  Drake owners are asking if they should be "wasting" a bench spot on Edmonds?  Really?

One of the biggest parts of fantasy are owning the game changing handcuffs / 2nd-in-a-committee-backs that could explode if the top guy gets hurt/suspended/fumble-itis, etc.  (Think back to your best teams, or whoever won the title in your league the last couple years - those teams usually had one of these guys who had no job at the beginning of the season on the roster.)

It is important to be able to identify who these players are and who they are not.  The equation is generally a combination of the handcuff's talent and the potency of the offense.  Here are some examples of game-changing guys (this is not an exhaustive list):

Mattison - looks to be a great talent; Minnesota is an offense who will rely on the RB
Hunt - proven star in the recent past; Chubb injury would make him likely bellcow; a bit different than many on this list because he has stand alone value now
Lat Murray - proven star in the recent past; already valuable; tremendous offense
Pollard - has flashed big time in limited work; seems to have three-down skill set; good offense & line
Edmonds - has flashed in the past; potentially incredible offense for fantasy; next competition for carries is a 7th round rookie (or something like that)
Snell - team seems to like him enough to make him the bellcow; offense consistently cranks out top 15 RB options

So yes, Edmonds definitely fits the mold here.  Unless you're in a shallow league (10 teamer), having Drake and not Edmonds is just crazy to me.  And I'd be more than happy to hold Edmonds as a high-upside bench stash in any league with any depth.

Here are some examples of "no need to cuff" situations:

Adrian Peterson's backup for most of history.  Toby Gerhart comes to mind.  I remember this guy being snapped up over and over again.  But the "role" wasn't that valuable there.  It was Peterson's preternatural ability that made the fantasy points flow.  

McCaffrey's or Barkley's backup.  These do not appear to be good offenses and the incredible volume given to the RB1 position in those teams is because of their unique abilities.  A "cuff" who stepped in would likely be no better than RB20 on a go-forward basis.  The end of my bench is not for low ceiling guys.  Whereas if tomorrow, aliens abducted Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Elliott, Drake, and Conner, any of the six guys I listed above could easily be top 10 backs.

I'd also add "murky" situations where there could be two or three backups, I'm not really down for burning two bench spots per backup unless it's a huge bench.  Take for instance what happened with the Eagles last week.  At first it looked like a clear situation, own Sanders, own Scott.  But with Scott laying an egg, if you really wanted to lock this up you'd need Clement (and possibly Huntley).

No need for that with Drake/Edmonds though, we've already seen it in action.  Plus Edmonds has the extra bonus of (slight) stand alone ability even if Drake stays healthy (as does Mattison).

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I had Edmonds and Drake going in to the season and had to drop Edmonds to pick up a DST (have to field a full team every week, etc) and there was nobody else I could drop. He was snatched up this week and I'm not happy about it. As Kenny mentioned above Edmonds is one of the handful of backups in the league where if the RB1 goes down he can be a huge difference maker--a RB1 (not really any other significant RBs on the team) on an explosive offense that runs a ton of plays each game. If you have the space on the bench I'd grab him and just hold to see what happens. I don't think you can count on week-to-week production (he might unpredictably put up points here and there--he's shown in the past he's explosive) but he's a helluva a lottery ticket. 

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I agree he is a great handcuff but who is too say they don't sign Freeman if Drake gets hurt....

They aren't going to only keep 2 backs on the roster. Edmonds is smaller than Drake iirc so not sure he can be long term work horse if Drake goes down.

 

I have Edmunds and warrant to keep him but need to drop somebody for a defense of none of my hamstring injured players are declared out before Sunday.

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52 minutes ago, CanaBuc said:

I agree he is a great handcuff but who is too say they don't sign Freeman if Drake gets hurt....

They aren't going to only keep 2 backs on the roster. Edmonds is smaller than Drake iirc so not sure he can be long term work horse if Drake goes down.

 

I have Edmunds and warrant to keep him but need to drop somebody for a defense of none of my hamstring injured players are declared out before Sunday.

 

Chase is 5' 9", 209 lbs, Drake is 6' 1", 212 lbs, so Drake is taller but about the same size. 

But agreed, if Drake was IR'd they'd probably sign another RB. 

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1 hour ago, CanaBuc said:

I agree he is a great handcuff but who is too say they don't sign Freeman if Drake gets hurt....

They aren't going to only keep 2 backs on the roster. Edmonds is smaller than Drake iirc so not sure he can be long term work horse if Drake goes down.

 

I have Edmunds and warrant to keep him but need to drop somebody for a defense of none of my hamstring injured players are declared out before Sunday.

Kliff is on record saying that Edmonds is a starting RB in the league. He is a sure fire RB1 if Drake goes down. Multiple teams have kicked the tires on Devonta. He either doesn’t have it anymore or his contract demands are too high. He did, after all, turn down $4M from the Seahawks.

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I think the thing is if you don't own drake and you have him then you might miss out on potential WW gems while basically hoping drake gets hurt. If drake doesn't get hurt then you missed out with him sitting on the bench. It's a risk you take with that so i don't blame anyone who didn't own drake, for scooping up some of the other WW stars that could end up producing value weekly, especially if they got hit with the injury bug. Without drake or multiple RBs being on bye week he's riding pine.

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29 minutes ago, Guwop said:

I think the thing is if you don't own drake and you have him then you might miss out on potential WW gems while basically hoping drake gets hurt. If drake doesn't get hurt then you missed out with him sitting on the bench. It's a risk you take with that so i don't blame anyone who didn't own drake, for scooping up some of the other WW stars that could end up producing value weekly, especially if they got hit with the injury bug. Without drake or multiple RBs being on bye week he's riding pine.

 

At the same time - How about those who owned Mattison at the end of last year...or Murray for 2 games...

The whole point of a cuff is not just to protect yourself, but also a winning lotto ticket. Most of the season, it's fun to wheel and deel and pick up FA's, but in the end, I never stop playing my starters unless an injury happens. There's room on people's bench for 2 lotto plays minimum.

If you want to run with a cuff, or a long shot like Joshua Kelly or Brown...that's up to the owner...but Edmonds has value as any cuff. At least he walks into an RB1 situation. 

 

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6 minutes ago, FooserX said:

 

At the same time - How about those who owned Mattison at the end of last year...or Murray for 2 games...

The whole point of a cuff is not just to protect yourself, but also a winning lotto ticket. Most of the season, it's fun to wheel and deel and pick up FA's, but in the end, I never stop playing my starters unless an injury happens. There's room on people's bench for 2 lotto plays minimum.

If you want to run with a cuff, or a long shot like Joshua Kelly or Brown...that's up to the owner...but Edmonds has value as any cuff. At least he walks into an RB1 situation. 

 

 

yes he does IF drake misses time. Just as risky as going after WW plays which is why i don't get people slamming non-drake owners if they want to take that shot early in the year before the wire dries up, given all the early injuries so far

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2 hours ago, CooL said:

Kliff is on record saying that Edmonds is a starting RB in the league. He is a sure fire RB1 if Drake goes down. Multiple teams have kicked the tires on Devonta. He either doesn’t have it anymore or his contract demands are too high. He did, after all, turn down $4M from the Seahawks.

Pretty much this.  The staff makes it sound like Edmonds is going to have enough of a role to irritate Drake owners as it is.  Even if the Cardinals sign someone else if Drake goes down I would imagine Edmonds gets the lions share.

I can't believe guys are questioning if he should be owned in standard leagues.  I'm holding on for dear life in even a ten team league as an non Drake owner.

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100% RB1/2 if Drake has an injury. Should be rostered.

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Way more valuable than that mid tier WR on your bench who has a floor of 1 catch for 12 yards who you’ll probably never start. 
 

He was a beast last year when he started before getting hurt. Highly doubt AZ signs someone to start over him if Drake gets hurt. 

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bump...just dropped in my league, thoughts on drop candidates or sit tight: reagor, jeudy, snell, marvin jones, lashen (laviska shenault)

Edited by dafreaks

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