paulwall29

Jerick McKinnon 2020 Outlook

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Currently my favorite deep sleeper. Reports out of camp so far are glowing, Shanahan is excited to use him, Trent Williams said he expects him to be a breakout player this year and apparently he has worked hard to be 100% healthy. Shanahan tends to find ways to get good players the football and Jet has a chance to get off to a hot start at the beginning of the season with Deebo hurt. If Mostert or Coleman gets hurt, or McKinnon outperforms them, he has big upside and should be the 3rd down back regardless. To get a piece of one of the leagues best backfields as a late round dart throw seems like a no brainer. Let's not forget that McKinnon is legitimately one of the greatest athletes at the position the league has ever seen.

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Posted (edited)

Last sentence got me good.

 

No issues grabbing him in deep leagues. Guys step up every year. Toss the dart.

 

Ill bet he doesn’t get 100 touches this season. 
 

edit- hell, not 50.

Edited by dsrich

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5 minutes ago, dsrich said:

Last sentence got me good.

 

No issues grabbing him in deep leagues. Guys step up every year. Toss the dart.

 

Ill bet he doesn’t get 100 touches this season. 
 

edit- hell, not 50.

 

I'm sure you would have said the same thing for Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert. Hard to predict how things will play out, especially in a Kyle Shanahan backfield. There's a reason he made this guy a top 10 highest paid RB 2 years ago.

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Just now, Evincar said:

 

Why does that matter?

 

Because great athletic ability is very helpful when it comes to being good at football. 

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1 minute ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Because great athletic ability is very helpful when it comes to being good at football. 

 

It is but those athletic gifts have never really translated into productive numbers. It happens to some guys. Who knows how much explosive ability he has after his knee injury.

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6 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Because great athletic ability is very helpful when it comes to being good at football. 

You mean for the guy who hasn’t played a game since 2017?

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2 minutes ago, Evincar said:

 

It is but those athletic gifts have never really translated into productive numbers. It happens to some guys. Who knows how much explosive ability he has after his knee injury.

 

Yes, this is why he is a late round deep sleeper. But if he is healthy his athleticism and the fact that Shanahan clearly had plans for him bodes well for his ability to have breakout potential. Much more so than most last pick fliers.

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2 minutes ago, dsrich said:

You mean for the guy who hasn’t played a game since 2017?

 

Yes, I do.

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He is basically free going from rounds 10 to 15 in drafts normally like in round 12 so i do not get the hate in this thread. If this is not a guy you want to roster on your bench fine by me. I own some shares in bestball around the round 14 range and in season long. When dalvin went down early in 2017 he had some good games then somehwo lat murray took the job away from him as I recall. Clearly if tevin coleman would go away and it could just be mostert and mckinnon sort of how like brieda was kicked to the curb last year then both might can be in that rb 15 to rb 24 weekly range. 

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1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yes, this is why he is a late round deep sleeper. But if he is healthy his athleticism and the fact that Shanahan clearly had plans for him bodes well for his ability to have breakout potential. Much more so than most last pick fliers.

 

Last year Mostert lead the NFL in yards before contact (IE yards blocked, schemed for you), Breida was 2nd and Coleman was 10th. If healthy Shanahan will use him well, whether or not he will be fantasy relevant or consistent is another question but I'm willing to find out.

 

Shanahan was the coordinator under his dad in Washington and made Alfred Morris look like a hall of famer with back to back 1600 yard seasons to start his career, when his dad was fired for some reason Alf wasn't a stud.

Devante Freeman has 2 pro bowls on his resume and 1 year prior and 3 years post pro bowls and now doesn't have a job. Freeman is a mediocre RB but in the lone 2 years with Shanahan he was a pro bowler.

I'm for a late round pick on Mckinnon.

1 hour ago, isuckatdfs said:

He is basically free going from rounds 10 to 15 in drafts normally like in round 12 so i do not get the hate in this thread. If this is not a guy you want to roster on your bench fine by me. I own some shares in bestball around the round 14 range and in season long. When dalvin went down early in 2017 he had some good games then somehwo lat murray took the job away from him as I recall. Clearly if tevin coleman would go away and it could just be mostert and mckinnon sort of how like brieda was kicked to the curb last year then both might can be in that rb 15 to rb 24 weekly range. 

 

How goes it @isuckatdfsyou still wanna do a ffpc league or have you done your quota I've seen you mentioning them.

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Athletic ability isn't the be all end all. Were you not here for the Christine (Look at that SPARQ score) Michaels hype trains part 1, 2, 3 and probably 4?

 

McKinnon hasn't averaged over 4 ypc since 2015. If anything I expect him to be involved in the passing game. I could see 50 carries and 30-45 catches.

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I think he will be a glorified WR this year.

 

Just following the Niners, with Shanahan's love for him and the injuries at the WR spot I actually think he may get some decent run on 3rd down and out of the slot. Of course this all depends if he can get on the field. I wouldn't be against a very late dart throw on him. 

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He is someone you stash and wait and see. If others Niners RB get banged up he can be a legit fantasy starter. He is taylormade for the offense. 

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6 hours ago, bangarrang said:

Athletic ability isn't the be all end all. Were you not here for the Christine (Look at that SPARQ score) Michaels hype trains part 1, 2, 3 and probably 4?

 

McKinnon hasn't averaged over 4 ypc since 2015. If anything I expect him to be involved in the passing game. I could see 50 carries and 30-45 catches.

 

Show me where anyone in this thread has said it's the end all be all. Go look at what all the running backs not named Dalvin Cook ypc were on those Vikings teams. They had one of the worst O lines in the league.

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He is a stud and in a great offense. His fantasy issues are that he is in a crowded backfield with a play call that uses a ton of deception. He will have a few blowup games and then will be used as a decoy to setup something else. Unless a few other RBs get banged up I expect to be a roller coaster ride owning him. 

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6 minutes ago, Fried Pork Grind said:

He is a stud and in a great offense. His fantasy issues are that he is in a crowded backfield with a play call that uses a ton of deception. He will have a few blowup games and then will be used as a decoy to setup something else. Unless a few other RBs get banged up I expect to be a roller coaster ride owning him. 

 

Yes, this could be a write up for every late round flier.

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Show me where anyone in this thread has said it's the end all be all. Go look at what all the running backs not named Dalvin Cook ypc were on those Vikings teams. They had one of the worst O lines in the league.

 

I mean, you mentioned his athleticism like 4 times in this thread so I assume you think it's really important. I've said before I think he'll take receiving work away from Mostert but I'm not interested in him as anything other than a late flier, even then I think others have more upside in the last few rounds as fliers, with clearer paths to more work.

 

Some quick math (these are my own projections/thoughts):

 

Last year the 49ers RB's had 424 rushing attempts. I'll assume they run slightly less and go with 400 attempts.

 

Last year carries went:

137 Mostert

137 Coleman

123 Breida

27 Wilson

 

For this year, I'd guess:

175 Mostert

110 Coleman

90 McKinnon

25 Wilson/others

 

If McKinnon goes for 4.0 YPC, that's 360 yards rushing. If he gets 4.5 YPC that's 405 yards rushing. 49ers RBs averaged 15 receptions last year. Let's say McKinnon doubles that and gets 30 catches at his career YPR of 6.9, that's 207 yards. McKinnon has scored 12 TDs in his 4 years of playing, 3 a year. For sake of argument, assume he doubles it and gets 6 total TDs. You're looking at about a 600/6 year. That's if things break right for him and he doesn't suffer another knee injury or miss time. I'm not saying he has no value and if you think that he'll do better than that that's fine, but I'm not excited about a best case scenario 600/6 year.

Edited by bangarrang

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2 minutes ago, bangarrang said:

 

I mean, you mentioned his athleticism like 4 times in this thread so I assume you think it's really important. I've said before I think he'll take receiving work away from Mostert but I'm not interested in him as anything other than a late flier, even then I think others have more upside in the last few rounds as fliers, with clearer paths to more work.

 

Some quick math (these are my own projections/thoughts):

 

Last year the 49ers RB's had 424 rushing attempts. I'll assume they run slightly less and go with 400 attempts.

 

Last year carries went:

137 Mostert

137 Coleman

123 Breid

27 Wilson

 

For this year, I'd guess:

175 Mostert

110 Coleman

90 McKinnon

25 Wilson/others

 

If McKinnon goes for 4.0 YPC, that's 360 yards rushing. If he gets 4.5 YPC that's 405 yards rushing. 49ers RBs averaged 15 receptions last year. Let's say McKinnon doubles that and gets 30 catches at his career YPR of 6.9, that's 207 yards. McKinnon has scored 12 TDs in his 4 years of playing, 3 a year. For sake of argument, assume he doubles it and gets 6 total TDs. You're looking at about a 600/6 year. That's if things break right for him and he doesn't suffer another knee injury or miss time. I'm not saying he has no value and if you think that he'll do better than that that's fine, but I'm not excited about a best case scenario 600/6 year.

 

You're missing the point man. The reason he's an attractive flier is because you are getting the cheapest piece of a productive backfield. I'm not saying he will have stand alone value in a vacuum, but we have seen injuries in this backfield lead to breakouts for Breida and Mostert--clearly there is a path for McKinnon to exceed expectations if Tevin or Mostert were to go down, particularly with Hurd being out for the season and Deebo being banged up; McKinnon is now the most likely player to be Shanahan's X factor to start the year. Why would I not bring up the fact that he is ultra athletic when making a case for him us a late round dart throw?

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28 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Yes, this could be a write up for every late round flier.

Not every late round flyers have the athletic ability of Bo Jackson 🤪

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10 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

You're missing the point man. The reason he's an attractive flier is because you are getting the cheapest piece of a productive backfield. I'm not saying he will have stand alone value in a vacuum, but we have seen injuries in this backfield lead to breakouts for Breida and Mostert--clearly there is a path for McKinnon to exceed expectations if Tevin or Mostert were to go down, particularly with Hurd being out for the season and Deebo being banged up; McKinnon is now the most likely player to be Shanahan's X factor to start the year. Why would I not bring up the fact that he is ultra athletic when making a case for him us a late round dart throw?

 

I'm not gonna keep arguing about a round 15 flier lol. Yes, if there is an injury his value goes up. Same can be said about a lot of RBs. If I'm betting on an injury to a starting RB on a productive team I'd rather roster:

 

Chase Edmonds (Drake has never topped 170 carries, been durable in the NFL, missed time in college)

Tony Pollard (Zeke is pretty durable, but he'd likely be a low end RB1 if Zeke misses time)

Darrynton Evans (Henry is coming off a 300 carry season)

Latavius Murray (More expensive than others but immediate RB1 if Kamara goes down, Kamara has missed some time)

Alexander Mattison (Cook has missed significant time during his career)

 

Stake your claim on McKinnon if you want though, I can see a world where he does well due to injury to others. I'd just personally take any of the above before him.

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